predicting the future of life in japan
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Predicting The Future of LIFE in JapanMichael Parsons, Consulting Senior Practice Director, Japan
The following is intended to outline our general
product direction. It is intended for information
purposes only, and may not be incorporated into any
contract. It is not a commitment to deliver any
material, code, or functionality, and should not be
relied upon in making purchasing decisions.
The development, release, and timing of any
features or functionality described for Oracle‟s
products remains at the sole discretion of Oracle.
Safe Harbor Statement
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A complex Subject
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Attribution-Flicker Valerie Everett
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„Predictions are always difficult …especially when they‟re about the future.‟
Niels Bohr
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$186
billion cost
growth from
poor estimating of
85 MDAPs
5,314 trips
into space
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Reducing the future risk
Oracle 4sight
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Oracle 4sight Mesh
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Cost estimating categories worth
over $10 billion excluded or under
reported
Assumptions over
optimisticand poorly document
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Improve accuracy with a
common, well documented and
analyzed Cost Breakdown
Structure
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“The lack of reliable technical
source data hampers cost
estimating.”
GAO, Space Acquisitions: DOD Needs to Take More Action to
Address Unrealistic Initial Cost Estimates of Space Systems,
GAO-07-96
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F-111 entered service 1960`s
required 45 MMH/FH
F-18 entered
service 1980`s
required 25MMH/FH
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Flickr :Bill Keaggy
Improve accuracy with
accumulated, normalized and
managed data
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“…cost-estimating resources are
inadequate to do a good job of
accurately predicting costs.”
GAO-07-96 DOD Needs to Take More Action to Address Unrealistic Initial
Cost Estimates of Space Systems
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75% of learning
is informal
Knowledge
Collaborationis essentialPhoto by Lars Ploughman Flickr
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Flickr jfravel
Improve accuracy with
collaborative working and
information shareing
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“…the main limitation is a lack of
reliable and consistent management
information …”
UK MoD - The Defence Strategy for Acquisition Reform
February 2010
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Data
Information
Knowledge
Accumulation
Analysis
Accuracy
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Oracle 4sight Mesh
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Using the
past and
present
to
foresee the
future
Oracle 4sight