preparing for the new reality - association of food and ... for the new reality francis (frank) f....

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Preparing for the New Reality

Francis (Frank) F. Busta, DirectorNational Center for Food Protection and Defense

AFDOPre-Conference Food Defense Workshop

Albany, New York17 June 2006

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Preparing for the New RealityFrancis (Frank) F. Busta,

and many colleagues at theNational Center for

Food Protection and Defense

Office: University of Minnesota - Twin Cities Campus 200 Dinnaken Office Building925 Delaware Avenue S.E., Minneapolis, MN 55455 USAPhone (612) 624-2458; Fax (612) 624-2157

http://www.ncfpd.umn.edu

http://www.ncfpd.umn.edu/

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Preaching to the AFDO Choir

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Current Events & ContextAvian influenza spreading rapidlyPandemic human influenza concerns mountingNation’s capability to respond to natural disasters challenged by KatrinaIncreased “chatter” on terrorism threatsHealth care crisis loomingBudget deficits mountingWhy are we worried about food defense?

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The Consumer Assumes A Safe and Plentiful Food Supply

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U.S. Agriculture U.S. Agriculture -- a National Resourcea National Resource

Source: Agricultural Statistics Board (National Agricultural Statistics Service)

Value Toward GDP$1.24 Trillionor12.3% of GDP

Direct and Related Employment 16.7% or 1 in 6 Jobs

Largest in the world

Highly concentrated – Efficient but poses new risksVast transportation systems – spread disease rapidly, highly

dependent upon other infrastructures: energy, water, transportation, etc.

Increased regional, national and international travel, tourism & trade – multiplies risks

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Today we have heard about:Vulnerability & Risk AssessmentBiosurveillance & Consumer Complaints MonitoringDHS National CommunicationsAwareness InitiativesProtecting the InfrastructureFood Defense Strategies in IndustryFood Emergency Response PlanningCrisis Management & Recovery Planning

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Principles of DeliveryThe delivery of that food supply is highly dependent on the many facets of the food system and supply chainNo longer a simple system

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Fresh-cut lettuce distribution chain

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Lettuce/romaine distribution chain

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Imported Foods$58.5 billion in ag imports

143,391 foreign facilities registered

Only ~ 3% of imported food is inspected at the border

Borders are porous

Over 90% of green onions and up Over 90% of green onions and up to 60% of cucumbers sold in the to 60% of cucumbers sold in the

United States were from Mexico in United States were from Mexico in 20012001 Mexican trucks make about 4.5 million Mexican trucks make about 4.5 million

border crossings each year, according to border crossings each year, according to US government figures. DOT 6US government figures. DOT 6--2424--0505

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Where is this?USA? PERU?

MEXICO? CHILE?

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Where is this?USA? PERU?

MEXICO? CHILE?

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Supply Chain Complexity

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Intelligence on Food Terrorism

Documents Seized in Afghanistan (Tarnak Farms)

Indicate Interest

“Terrorist groups have a lesser interest in biological materials and are most interested in chemicals such as cyanide salts to contaminate food and water supplies”

CIA Testimony to Congress 2002

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Organizations and ClienteleGovernment

InternationalNationalState CountyLocal

IndustryAcademicIndependent Consultant

AgenciesDepartmentsProducersManufacturersDistributorsRetailersRestaurateursInstitutionsConsumers

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Principles & Perception

Food QualityFood SafetyFood Defense Food Protection

Animal ProtectionCrop Protection

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Systems thinking is imperativePrinciples are fundamentally sameMust recognize

similarities & differences



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Symmetrical vs.

Asymmetrical



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System failurevs.

System attack



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Magnitude of ImpactHarassment

Hoax MORBIDITY &Tampering MORTALITY

IllnessesDeaths

DisasterECONOMIC Catastrophe

Pandemic

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“Mother Nature”Disgruntled employeesViolent activist groupsCriminals/subversivesInternational/government supported or

directed groups or individuals [terrorists]

The Problem: Challenges Come in Various Forms

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The Problem: Challenges of a Food Situation

Food supply system is extremely complexGlobal challenge acknowledgedFood as a desirable terrorist vehicleIntentional vs. accidental contaminationNew paradigm for threats to food safety

and defense management

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The Problem: Multiple Food System Vulnerabilities

Opportunities for contaminant accessLack of subsequent adequate inactivation treatment Large volume and/or maximum mixingProduct environment for agent growth/preservationRapid distribution to consumersRapid consumption by consumersDisproportionate consumption by “high risk populations”

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Public HealthReal vs. perceived vs. precautionaryBusiness survivalCommunity survival

The Problem:Setting Priorities

Among the Solutions

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Types of information, reports, situationsTypes of agents Concentration of agentsChoice of targetsScale/number of targets Recognition of illness, cause, response

The Problem:e.g.; Differentiating “Normal”from Intentional Contamination

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Much effort has been or is being put into planning for protection, detection, containment, and decontamination of intentional and/or natural contamination of food/ag production facilities.

What has not been done is to plan for dealing with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th order effects of such an event.

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This applies to:•traditional natural/accidental contamination

by pathogens/pesticides/allergens•intentional contamination at lethal or

injurious levels by select agents•intentional contamination at incidental

harmless levels by select agents•diseases in plants or animals

that have little or no human consequences

We have not addressed the 2nd, 3rd and 4th order effects of such events.

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e.g., 2nd Order EffectsThe primary production component of the industryThe wholesale, distribution and retail componentsThe subsequent employment impact

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e.g., 3rd Order EffectsThe financial and insurance sectorsThe cross infrastructure impact (such as with transportation sector)

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e.g., 4th Order EffectsThe loss of tax revenue at the

local and state levelsThe overall cost to government

of the responseThe social disruption effects(these may range from local movement restrictions as the event is dealt with on farms or along the supply chain, loss of commodities to the market and potential disrupted delivery of a wide range of products and services to broader public panic)

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Trajectory of Effects

OrderFirstSecondThirdFourth

IndividualGroupCompanyIndustryPopulationCommunityGovernment

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A Solution

Defending the safetyof the

food systemthrough research and education

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National Center for Food Protection and Defense

A Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

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NCFPD - Vision



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A Solution –Universal principles to reduce potential

Preparation for variety of challenges from routine to catastrophic

Rendering systems resistant to potential problemsRapidly and accurately detecting problemsResponding effectively to minimize consequencesRapid delivery of effective recovery effortsTraining

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Food Defense Strategies

Reduce the potential for catastrophic events by:

Rendering targets unattractiveRapidly and accurately detecting attacksResponding effectively to minimize consequencesRapid delivery of effective recovery effortsTraining new scientists and professionals

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Food Defense Strategies

Rendering targets unattractiveMultiple barriers to effective contamination

Guns, gates and guards“Hardened” processes

Minimizing impact of an effective contaminationAgent inactivation via processing or formulationVaccines/anti-virals/probiotics

KEY: Where to focus interventions

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Food Defense StrategiesRapidly and accurately detecting attacksReal time detection of contaminants in food

Detect to preventDetect to protectDetect to recover

KEY: Detection strategies that meet the speed, sensitivity and specificity needs of the situation

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A Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

Who are we?Who are we?

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Broad Academic Collaboration

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Diverse Industry and Association Collaboration

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Collaborating Across Agencies

State/Local Agencies

http://www.aphis.usda.gov/index.html

http://csrees.usda.gov/index.html

http://www.ers.usda.gov/

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System Focus

Agent Focus

Training Focus

• Supply Chain Resiliency• Public Health Response• Economic Models For Evaluating Interventions

• Rapid detection• Decontamination• Inactivation• Disposal

• Disseminating NCFPD products• Training scholars and professionals• Risk communication

NCFPD Primary Themes

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System Focus

Agent Focus

Training Focus

• Supply Chain


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System Focus

Agent Focus

Training Focus

• Public Health


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System Focus

Agent Focus

Training Focus

• Economics


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System Focus

Agent Focus

Training Focus


• Detection

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System Focus

Agent Focus

Training Focus


• Inactivation

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System Focus

Agent Focus

Training Focus


• Decontamination

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System Focus

Agent Focus

Training Focus


•Education

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System Focus

Agent Focus

Training Focus


•Risk Communication

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Systems thinking through complexity, change, consequences

Plan & organize team actionsDiscover & document trendsCreate & relate explanationsApply system archetypesApply modified/adjusted plansIdentify higher levels of interventionIdentify unintended consequences

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Take-Home Message- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Check your own situationAre you prepared, ready to respond, capable of recovery?Assess / minimize your vulnerabilities!Consider an all-hazards approach [quality to pandemic]!Insist on a systems approach [failure vs. attack]!Understand the product, process, distribution, consumer, responsible agencies, and all associated characteristics!

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“Fighting terrorism is like being a goalkeeper. You can make a hundred brilliant saves but the one shot that people remember is the one that gets past you.”

Paul Wilkinson, Daily Telegraph, London, 9/ 1/ 92Paul Wilkinson, Daily Telegraph, London, 9/ 1/ 92

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A Homeland Security Center of ExcellenceFrancis (Frank) F. Busta, Director

Shaun P. Kennedy, Deputy DirectorMichael T. Osterholm, Associate DirectorUniversity of Minnesota - Twin Cities Campus

Office: 200 Dinnaken Office Building925 Delaware Avenue S.E., Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA

Phone (612) 624-2458; Fax (612) 624-2157 http://www.ncfpd.umn.edu

http://www.ncfpd.umn.edu/