preparing for tomorrow’s world

1

Preparing for Tomorrow’s World: Helping University Information Services Respond to Technological, Economic and Political Change

• A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference

2

Preparing for Tomorrow’s World: Helping University Information Services Respond to Technological, Economic and Political Change

A workshop session facilitated by Brian Kelly, Cetis for Library / IT Services staff at the University of Brighton

Slides available under a Creative Commons licence (CC-BY)

http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/preparing-for-tomorrows-world/ Session hashtag: #isconf14

About The Facilitator

Brian Kelly:• Innovation Advocate at Cetis,

University of Bolton, UK since Oct 2013• Worked at UKOLN, University of Bath

as UK Web Focus for 16+ years• Web technology adviser to

higher education & cultural heritage sectors

3

A: Introduction

4

Workshop Abstract

Which emerging technologies are likely to enhance working practices and the student experience and which can we afford to ignore? How do we distinguish between invention, innovation and improvement?

Brian will lead discussions on key development areas and how we can respond to them. You will have the opportunity to use a methodology, which has been used by Cetis and UKOLN to ensure that institutions can gather evidence on new technologies in a systematic way, identify trends and plan for the future.

Rapid change at global level

Technologies may not take off

Systematic processes

Institutional responses to change

A: Introduction

5

About You

Your opportunity to summarise your interests and expectations:

• What made you decide to attend this session?

• What do you hope to gain from it?

A: Introduction

Timetable for ELAG 2014

Time TitlePredicting the Future14.00 A: Introduction14.15 B: Predicting the Future: the Need, the Risks, the Approaches14.30 C: Let’s Predict the Future (group exercise)15.25 Review 15.30 FinishWe’ve Predicted the Future! So What?14.00 D: Review and Introduction

14.10 E: Prepare for the Unexpected: Scenario Planning 14.30 F: Making the Case15.20 G: Conclusions and Reflections15.30 Finish

6

A: Introduction

Day 1

Day 2

Draft Timetable for Today

Time Title

Predicting the Future

11.30 A: Introduction

11.45 B: Predicting the Future: the Need and the Risks

12.00 C: Predicting the Future: a Methodology

12.00 D: Let’s Predict the Future (group exercise)

12.25 Report back

We’ve Predicted the Future! So What?

12.30 E: Prepare for the Unexpected: Scenario Planning

12.40 F: Making the Case

12:55 G: Conclusions and Reflections

13.00 Finish

7

Part 1

Part 2

A: Introduction

Subject to changes!

Your Thoughts

What technical developments might be important?

8

Tweet your ideas with event hashtag

I think teleporting could have implications for libraries in the future! #isconf14 58

Feel free to add implications for users …

Teleporting could have implications for libraries as people won’t be put off from visiting when it’s raining! #isconf14 22

and implications for libraries

We would therefore need larger physical spaces for the teleporting visitors to the library #isconf14 41

Discuss the implications …

So maybe the books could be teleported. Would we need a physical library building? #isconf14 48

such as legal issues, business models, …

What about the legal implication? Border control? Which VAT rate to use? Importing banned book? … #isconf14 27

A: Introduction

Time of Growth

1990s & early 2000s saw:

• Increased funding across education sector

• Significant developments in IT sector

• Willingness by senior managers & funding bodies to invest in innovative IT developments (e.g. JISC development programmes)

9 “Great proposal – we’ll fund it”Image from Flickr. CC BY-NC-SA licence: http://www.flickr.com/photos/inlinguamanchester/5036313154/

B: Predicting the Future: the Need and the Risks

The Need for Futurists

Time of Growth is Over

Late 2000s and beyond:• Decreased funding across

education & public sector• Acknowledgements that

innovation can provide growth and cost savings

• Significant developments continue in IT sector

• Investment in innovative IT developments need to be based on evidence of benefits & likelihood of success

10Image from Flickr. CC BY-NC-ND licence: http://www.flickr.com/photos/drewleavy/339489258//

“You want how much? And no evidence it will work! You’re crazy!”



The Future: A Quick Summary

What technological developments might have an impact in the future?

For the impatient, here’s a summary!

11



12

In the Future

Data will be Big

Image from Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Big_data#mediaviewer/File:Mark_Gillett_at_Big_Data_Meetup_March_2012.jpg

13

In the Future

Content and services will be open

Web is Agreement by Paul Downey.CC BY

http://www.thewebisagreement.com/

14

In the Future

We will own our services and content

http://www.roxannedebastion.com/2014/03/streaming-services-why-dont-we-build-our-own/

15

In the Future

We will see a growth in use of online services

http://www.pewinternet.org/2010/08/27/older-adults-and-social-media/

16

In the Future


FinTech Mentor Huy Nguyen Trieu shares his views on new opportunities in the FinTech space, April 2014

with increased access on mobile devices

http://www.startupbootcamp.org/blog/2014/april/four-opportunities-in-fintech-and-disruptive-finance.html

17

In the Future


NASA Turns to Online Giant Amazon for Cloud Computing Services for Mars Rover Curiosity, August 2012

and content and services hosted in the Cloud

http://biginscience.com/big-in-science-articles/2012/8/12/nasa-turns-to-online-giant-amazon-for-cloud-computing-servic.html

18

In the Future

We will see the importance of developers, IT service staff, librarians and information professionals acknowledged

Causes, ALA

http://www.ala.org/membership/howtoala/membercauses

19

In the Future

We will see greater investment in libraries

£298k investment! The Library is committed to enhancing its services and facilities to deliver the very best library experience for users. During 2013/14 we are directing £298k to boost access to core materials. This sum is in addition to the millions spent on library resources across the Colleges.

Enhancing Core Library Collections 2013/14, University of Exeter, UK

https://as.exeter.ac.uk/library/news/enhancingcorelibrarycollections/

20

In the Future

We will travel to work by monorail

21

In the Future

We will use jetpacks at weekends

22

When Did You Stop Believing?

At what point did you become sceptical?

Big data Growth in onlineOpen sourceOpen content

Value of librarians Greater investment Monorails Jetpacks


The Need for Futurists: the Risks

23

Tips for Predicting the Future

Tip no. 1

You can’t always trust your own vision for the future!

(you’ll be tempted to bring your personal hopes, expectations or prejudices with you)



24

What Can We Conclude?

Assumptions of: • Inevitability of technological developments• Economic growth (we can afford them)• Political and social environment (no legal or

environmental barriers)

There is a need to:• Be wary of predictions which:

Simply justify our organisation’s current approaches (cf. music industry)

Reflect personal beliefs• Base predictions on evidence• Acknowledge that evidence may challenge

organisational or personal beliefs / prejudicesWe need a more systematic way of predicting future developments



25

We commission reports from experts in the field

PDF

http://www.jisc.ac.uk/media/documents/techwatch/tsw_0801pdf.pdf

26

We commission reports from experts in the field

… is an information professional who has specialized in the fields of electronic information provision for over 20 years.

In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for digital libraries, in which capacity he is a member of the editorial board for the METS (Metadata Encoding and Transmission Standard) standard for digital library metadata.

27


Tip no. 2

You can’t always trust futurists!

(they may bring their sectoral, organisational or personal prejudices with them)

Caveat:

Their expertise may also be valuable and correct, but they may miss significant developments



28

JISC Observatory

JISC Observatory:• JISC-funded initiative • Systematises processes for anticipating and

responding to projected future trends & scenarios• Provided by JISC Innovation Support Centres at

Cetis and UKOLN• Ran from 2011-2013• See <http://blog.observatory.jisc.ac.uk/>

Cessation of core funding for UKOLN and CETIS led to closure of JISC Observatory on 31 July 2013. Therefore need to ensure sustainability of ideas and approaches for use by institutions

Methodology for Predicting the Future

29


Tip no. 3

Librarians and IT Service staff should carry out evidence-gathering, sense-making and synthesis activities for their own organisation / sector.

C: A Methodology for Predicting the Future


30

Invention, Innovation, Improvement

1. Invention: The creation of the idea or method itself.

2. Innovation: The use of a better and, as a result, novel idea or method.

3. Improvement: Doing current activities better.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innovation



31


Tip no. 4

You will need primarily to monitor (a) innovations to support long-term planning and(b) improvements in order to enhance operational practices



32

Use of the Delphi Process

The group was presented with a number of key trend statements, as identified by the NMC horizon scan activities 2013, an example of which was "Openness; concepts like open content, open date and open resources, along with notions of transparency and easy access to data and information, is becoming a value" and significant challenges such as "Faculty training still does not acknowledge the fact that digital media literacy continues to rise in importance as a key skill in every discipline and profession".

Participants were split into smaller groups and posed a series of response questions; Question 1 being "Given the technology trends and challenges just discussed which technologies do you think will have greatest impact on Higher Education (Teaching and Learning from the CETIS 13 expert group) over the next twelve months (near term)?

The expert groups were given ten minutes to discuss the question, collectively agree and provide three technologies identified. The technologies identified by the expert groups were listed and presented to the whole group. Each of the smaller working group were given a further five minutes to discuss the other groups suggestions asked to vote for the suggestions, excluding their own. The scores were collated and the three technologies emerging with the highest overall group scores were put forward as the three technologies with potentially greatest impact on teaching and learning in the near term.

The process was then repeated for the medium (2-3 years) and long term (3-5 years) questions. In an hour the expert group were able to produce a list of technologies that they considered would have impact on higher Education in the short, medium and long term the results of which were then compared with the NMC Horizon scan findings and other group findings for further discussion and debate. The value of such a process is two-fold; firstly the finding and outputs and secondly as a process by which to instigate discussion and debate around technologies amongst experts.

From “Reflecting on Yesterday, Understanding Today, Planning for Tomorrow”, Kelly & Hollins, Umbrella 2013

http://opus.bath.ac.uk/35978/

33

NMC Horizon Reports

NMC Horizon Reports: http://www.nmc.org/

http://www.nmc.org/horizon-project

34

NMC Horizon Report: HE Edition 2013

NMC Horizon report: Higher Education, 2013

PDF


http://www.nmc.org/pdf/2013-horizon-higher-ed-shortlist.pdf

35

NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition 2014

NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition 2014

36

JISC Observatory

JISC Observatory processes

Scanning Exercise

Hands up if you have:Used a mobile device for work-related purposes in bed (yes, no, rarely)

37

“20% of the iPad users spent time with their iPad in bed” 2010

Informal survey, March 2012

“The future is already here - it's just not very evenly distributed”What are the implications of this new ‘platform’?



http://www.theipadnews.com/ipad-spends-20-of-time-in-bed/

http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/2012/03/10/twitterers-do-it-in-bed/

Significant Trends: Social Media

Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the 24 Russell Group universities found >1M ‘Likes’ followers

38


http://www.facebook.com/the.university.of.oxford

Significant Trends: Social Media

Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the 24 Russell Group universities found >1M ‘Likes’ followers

39


http://www.facebook.com/the.university.of.oxford

Behind The Data

Trends in Fb ‘Likes’ for Russell Group Unis since Jan 2011 show steady increase

40

Jan 11 Sep 11 May 12 Jul 12

But note increase in Jul 2012 due to addition of 4 new universities!

But might trends hide a more complex story:

• Usage & growth dominated by one significant player.

• More modest usage generally


http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/2012/08/02/over-one-million-likes-of-facebook-pages-for-the-24-russell-group-universities/

41

Lis, Damned Lies and Graphs

“#Blekko traffic goes through the roof –

for good reason. Try it out!”

Based on blog post entitled “Blekko’s Traffic Is Up Almost 400 Percent; Here Are The CEO’s Five Reasons Why” (includes dissatisfaction with Google)

Is Blekko’s Traffic Really Going Through The Roof? Will It Challenge Google?, UK Web Focus blog, 18 April 2012

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics!C: A Methodology for Predicting the Future

42


Tip no. 5

Data can provide insights and indicate trends – but needs to be interpretted carefully

43

Open Sense-making

Seek feedback on:• Evidence-gathering

methodology e.g. flaws in ‘paradata’

• Implications of findings

• Interventions needed in light of findings

“All bugs are visible to many eyes”


Open Sense-making

Importance of open approaches to interpretation of signals:

• Evidence-gathering methodologies may have flaws

• Incorrect or inappropriate implications may be made

• This may lead to wrong decisions being made

44

Open sense-making approaches may be difficult:• Your marketing department may wish a consistent,

positive message to be made. • The facts may contradict your personal beliefs



45


Tip no. 6

Once you’ve gathered evidence you should encourage open feedback on:

• Validity of evidence-gathering methodologies• Interpretation of findings• Implications


46

What Do You Think Will Be Important?

What four technologies / technology-related areas do you feel will be important in your area of work?

• In the short-term (in the current year)?

• In the medium term (two – three years)?

• In the longer term (four – five years)?

“The future is already here - it's just not very evenly distributed” – you (collectively) can help identify future trends

D: Let’s Predict the Future

You Should Predict the Future!

47

What Do You Think Will Be Important?

Collating The Responses

Important in the short-term (you should roll it out by this time next year):

Area 1 Area 2 Area 3 Area 4

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Group 4

Group 5

D: Let’s Predict the Future

No time for the voting and discussion processes to prioritise areas!

You Should Predict the Future!

48


Tip no. 7

Explore the potential of using the Delphi methodology to help identification of future developments of importance to your organisation

49

Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is:• A strategic planning method that some organisations

use to make flexible long-term plans.• An adaptation and generalization of classic methods

used by military intelligence.

Processes:• Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change• Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable framework• Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios• Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios• Step 5 - write the scenarios• Step 6 - identify issues arising From http://en.wikipedia.org/

wiki/Scenario_planning

E: Scenario Planning

Prepare for the unexpected!

50

Scenario Planning

NMC Horizon work makes use of scenarios in defining “Significant Challenges Impeding Ed Tech Adoption in Academic and Research Libraries”:

• Solvable Challenges: Those which we both understand and know how to solve (e.g. Rethinking the Roles and Skills of Librarians)

• Difficult Challenges: Those we understand but for which solutions are elusive (e.g. Establishing the Value of Libraries)

• Wicked Challenges: Those that are complex to even define, much less address (e.g. Embracing the Need for Radical Change)



51

Scenarios

Possible scenarios for the Cloud environment

Commercialisation Devolved ownership

Everyone’s a librarian The niche librarian

Everyone’s an IT expert



52


Tip no. 8

Scenario planning, covering both technological and societal developments, can be useful in planning for future developments


53

Important to You – But What Are The Next Steps?

You have identified technologies / technology-related areas which you feel will be important in your area of work.

Next steps: • Identify the implications of the

technologies• Assess the associated risks• Make a case to senior management for

further related work

F: Making the Case

You’ve predicted the future – now you need to make a case for further work

54

A Planning Template (1)

From the Hyperlinked Library MOOC

Planning template used in assignment 2: • Goals/Objectives for the technology – Action Brief Statement:

Convince ______ that by _______ they will ________ which will ________ because _______.

• Mission, Guidelines & Policy• Funding considerations • Evaluation• …

Acknowledgements to Michael Stephens and Kyle Jones

F: Making the Case


55

A Planning Template (2)

The Need to Explicitly Address Risks

From “Risks and Opportunities Framework for Exploiting the Social Web” by Kelly & Oppenheim:

• Summarise risks• Summary risks of not adopting

technology• Summarise strategies for minimising

(or accepting) risks• Evidence base• Document biases and prejudices

Can you innovate without taking risks?

F: Making the Case


http://opus.bath.ac.uk/17484/

56

Group Exercise

You have an opportunity make a case to a senior management need which has funding to explore innovative technologies.

In your groups:• Select one of the technologies identified

previously• Prepare a case for funding based on templates• Address a challenging scenario• Give a presentation of < 5 minutes

Note only one submission can be funded!Example of use of this methodology available on post on “Assignment 2: Emerging Technology Planning” on Hyperlinked Library MOOC

F: Making the Case


http://mooc.hyperlib.sjsu.edu/briankelly/2013/10/06/assignment-2-emerging-technology-planning/

57

Warning From The Past

Tim Berners-Lee didn’t let evidence of the popularity of Gopher hinder development of the Web

G: Conclusions

58

Tip no. 9

The Serenity Prayer

The Serenity Prayer

G: Conclusions

59

NMC Horizon Report: HE Edition 2013

NMC Horizon report: Higher Education, 2013

PDF

G: Conclusions

http://www.nmc.org/pdf/2013-horizon-higher-ed-shortlist.pdf

60


Tip no. 10

Read the NMC and related reports (but discuss their relevance in your own context)

G: Conclusions

61

To conclude:

1. Beware of predictions which reflect personal / sectoral beliefs

2. You can’t always trust futurologists!

3. Carry out your own future planning work

4. Monitor innovations and improvements

5. Data can provide insights & indicate trends

6. Gather open feedback in order to help spot errors in interpretation of your findings

7. Delphi methodology may be useful in annual future-planning

8. Scenario planning may help in preparing for the unexpected

9. Don’t forget the Serenity Report!

10. Read the NMC and related reports

Conclusions

62

Questions

Any questions?

preparing for tomorrow’s world

Education

future content

future data

future group exercise

introduction day

use of online services

time of growth

introduction subject

technological developments