pres 127 werner b korte june 29 2016
TRANSCRIPT
T-Shaped Professionals in Europe Today and in 2020 – There is a Job to
do!
Leadership skills for a high-tech economy in Europe
Werner B. Korte
Director empirica, Germany
(http://empirica.com)
ISSIP Service Innovation Presentation Speaker Series
29 June 2016
2
Founded in 1988 35 employees: multi-disciplinary, international team
(10 nations, 15 languages, academic studies in 12 countries)
Operating internationally Focus on European (and beyond) studies and projects Flat hierarchy, autonomous staff Inbetween ‘university’ and ‘consulting organisation’ Strong international network Coordinator of the European Network for Innovation Research (ENIR) with partners all around the world (founded in 2001)
empirica – some facts
3
1. eHealth
2. eCare & Ageing
3. Energy
4. Inclusive Society
5. eSkills & Work
6. Research & Innovation
empirica Business Units
http://empirica.com
ICT Workforce in the EU 2001 - 2014
5
7.3 7.4 7.3 7.5
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7
0.3%1.4% 1.0%
8.5% 5.0%
2.4%3.2% 2.7% 2.6%
4.1% 3.9%2.7% 2.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
milli
on
Broad definit ion (EU28, 2011-2013) Core definit ion (EU27)See next slide for def init ion ISCO-08 25+351, ISCO-88 213+312; 2010-2011 break in series
Based on Eurostat LFS data, some est imat ions
ICT Workforce: Definition using ISCO
Management, architecture &
analysis
Core ICT practitioners –
professional level
Other ICT practitioners –
professional level
Core ICT practitioners –
associate / technician level
Other ICT practitioners –
associate / technician level
1330 ICT service managers 2152 Electronics engineers 2153 Telecommunications engineers 2356 Information technology trainers 2421 Management and organization analysts (50%) 2434 ICT sales professionals 2511 Systems analysts 2512 Software developers 2513 Web and multimedia developers 2514 Applications programmers 2519 Software and applications developers and analysts n.e.c. 2521 Database designers and administrators 2522 Systems administrators 2523 Computer network professionals 2529 Database and network professionals n.e.c. 3114 Electronics engineering technicians 3139 Process control technicians n.e.c. 3155 Air traffic safety electronics technicians 3211 Med. imaging and therap. equip. technicians 3252 Med. records and health inform. technicians 3511 ICT operations technicians 3512 ICT user support technicians 3513 Computer network and systems technicians 3514 Web technicians 3521 Broadcasting and audio-visual technicians 3522 Telecommunications engineering technicians
Structural Changes of the ICT Workforce EU27, 2011-2014
Management, architecture and
analysis
ICT managers Management and organization analysts (partly)
Systems analysts
Core ICT practitioners - professional
level
Software developers Web and multimedia developers
Applications programmers Other software and app developers and analysts
Database designers and administrators Systems administrators
Computer network professionals Other database and network professionals
Other ICT practitioners - professional
level
Electronics engineers Telecommunications engineers
IT trainers ICT sales professionals
Core ICT practitioners -
associate/ technician level
ICT operations technicians ICT user support technicians
Computer network and systems technicians Web technicians
Other ICT practitioners -
associate/ technician level
Electronics engineering technicians Process control technicians not elsewhere classified
Air traffic safety electronics technicians Medical imaging and therapeutic equipment
technicians Medical records and health information technicians
Broadcasting and audio-visual technicians Telecommunications engineering technicians
total
Source: empirica based on Eurostat LFS data
34%
9%
-21%
7%
-23%
3.5%
8
Composition of the European ICT workforce in the EU 2014
empirica, based on Eurostat LFS data 2014.
Management, analysisCore professionals Other professionalsCore practitionersOther practitioners
Forecast Supply and Demand 2015-2020 (latest update: March 2016)
empirica and IDC
9
8,052,000
8,232,000
8,423,000
8,614,000
8,795,000
8,944,000
7,681,000
7,766,000 7,873,000
7,982,000
8,095,000 8,203,000
372,000 465,000 550,000
632,000 701,000
741,000
7,000,000
7,500,000
8,000,000
8,500,000
9,000,000
9,500,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jobs
and
dem
and
pote
ntia
l
Demand Potential Total
Jobs Total
522,000 jobs added
jobs potential
E-Skills Policy Indices: Europe 2009 vs. 2013
Source: empirica 2014 See: Gareis, K. Et al.: E-SKILLS FOR JOBS IN EUROPE: MEASURING PROGRESS AND MOVING AHEAD. FINAL REPORT Feb 2014
©
e-Leadership Index 2015
http://eskills-lead.eu/fileadmin/lead/reports/lead_final_report.pdf
e-Leadership Quantification 2015
http://eskills-lead.eu/fileadmin/lead/reports/lead_final_report.pdf
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Quantification: Old Methodology
e-leadership skills
Definition
LEAD (2014/2015): • CIO survey in three countries on organisation’s
competence in identifying and addressing opportunities for business innovation using ICT
• Application of survey results to the known business structure according to size class of all EU28 countries for the quantification of e-leaders in EU28 (568,000 in 2013) and extrapolation to 2015 using the 4.4% growth trend of highly skilled ICT occupations: 620,000 today and to 2020: 776,000
empirica
www.eskills-vision.eu & www.eskills-lead.eu
Quantification: New: Big Data Approach e-leadership skills
Definition
SCALE (2016): • Quantification of e-leadership demand using online vacancy data: textkernel
product: jobfeed • Coverage: five countries: DE, UK, FR, NL, AT • Use of jobfeed taxonomy to include or exclude specific industry and job categories • Co-occurence analysis using the statistical software and programming language R.
The results were used as the basis for the development of algorithms and key-word chains for experimentation
• Development and application of final algorithm • Model assumptions:
o Active job adverts posted no more than 4 months prior o 50% of searches via job adverts, the remaining searches are carried out
through headhunters, personnel development agencies and staffing industry actors
empirica
Sources Jobs vacancy data: www.jobfeed.com Approach for calculation / estimation:
Workforce Estimation based on an assumed vacancy rate identical to the one of highly-skilled ICT occupations known to be 4.7% (e-leadership skilled workforce in EU28: 350,000 as of November 2015)
empirica
Demand Workforce + Number of e-leadership vacancies applying model assumptions (see above) empirica
Supply Assumption: supply = workforce empirica
Forecast Trend extrapolation. Assumption: growth is correlated with highest skilled ICT jobs growth: 4.4% IDC, empirica
Challenges and Conclusions • There is a global race for talent
– US remains a magnet for IT talent – Asia is increasingly investing in education and skills
• Policy efforts are paying! Supply is improving • Structural changes in workforce are expected to increase • Growing number of vacancies in highest e-skills areas • Increasing mismatch
– Risk of unemployment for people with low or outdated skills – Growing number of potential vacancies (up to 10%) for specialist and advanced
e-skills • Demography requires much stronger reliance on re-training and IT
professional education and attracting foreign talent (e.g. H-1B guest worker visas, refugees …)
• Need for improving highest e-skills level education (qualitatively and quantitatively)
• Need for around 40,000 additional e-leaders per year in Europe. There is a job to do!
• European Commission agenda and policy roadmap: Talent for Europe – Leadership Skills for the High-Tech Economy: Towards an Agenda for 2020 and Beyond