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ACCOUNTING OF MITIGATION IMPACTS OF
POLICIES AND ACTIONS
Mónica Echegoyen
Berlin, March 2014
SECRETARÍA DE MEDIO AMBIENTE
Y RECURSOS NATURALES
SEMARNAT SEMARNAT MINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT
AND NATURAL RESOURCES
2
Aspirational goal -30% in 2020 = 288 MtC02e/year
38.4% of 2020 goal
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
MM
tCO
2e
New PECC aprox. 110.7 MtCO2e/y
(Prior PECC= 31MtC02e/y
960 909
760 MtCO2e
PECC: Special Climate Change Program 2013-2018
Baseline
Scope: • 22 mitigation goals,
representing 78% of PECC’s total GHG reductions.
• 105 adaptation goals, representing 78% of total adaptation goals.
Mi
Ad
Approach: 1. Determine confidence intervals to estimate
uncertainty on PECC’s mitigation goals 2. Establish a grading system on traceability for
both adaptation & mitigation PECC goals; considering methodologies and information sources
3. Evaluate PECC’s effect on climate change policy - before & after its implementation.
Mexico’s government submitted its Climate Change Program 2009-2012 (PECC) to an independent evaluation Det Norske Veritas
Mexican Institute
of Competitiveness
Purpose: • Improve the implementation and follow up of the PECC in terms of accuracy and transparency. • Upgrade the design of next generation policy instruments.
With an 80% confidence: 2012
mitigation will be between 33 and
43 MtCO2e/year for 22
representative goals (78% of
PECC’s total GHG reductions).
SPECIAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAM 2009-2012 Independent review:
Grading Methodology for Traceability
0-2
2-3
3-4
The system is binary:
grading 1 when
information is
available and 0 when
it is not.
Below 50%, urgent change is needed. Between 50-75%, changes needed in the goal monitoring. Above 75%, good traceability.
Traceability results for 22
Goal # Goal name
4 Cogeneration in Pemex
29 Scrappage of old motor vehicles
31 Rail for freight transport
37 Appliances and bulb replacement
39 Green mortgages
63 Sustainable planned grazing
1 Reinjection of sour gas in Cantarell
2-3-5 Operational efficiency in Pemex
11 Upgrading thermoelectric plant
14 Hydroelectrical power project
15 Wind power generation by CFE
18 Private wind power generation
26 Clean transport program
27 Construction of new highways
43 Efficient wood burning stoves
64 Sustainable forest management
65 Wildlife conservation management units
66 Payment for environmental services
67 Natural protected areas
73 Commercial forestry plantations
78 Pilot Project for REDD
82 Landfill methane mgmt.
Mi tigation goals
0.9
7.42
GHG reductions 2012
35.83
MtCO2
MtCO2
MtCO2
PECC’s Effect on Climate Change Policy 2005
2006
2008
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
30%
20%
MtCO2 (2012)
PECC does mean a change in abatement
policies
Upkeeped policies
Enhanced policies
New policies GHG reductions from
22 representative goals
Source: IMCO with information from all ministries involved in PECC mitigation goals
* Cantarell
50
%
Vehicle scrappage (# vehicles
450 933
1838
2835
3819
2189
4468
6012
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1. Started as a
Sectoral Policy
2. This Policy had a
significant increase
since 2008, when
PECC began
POLICIES EVOLUTION EXAMPLE
• Strength MRV of transport sector
• Mayor Benefits & cobenefits:
• Emissions reductions (CO, Nox, HC,
etc.)
• Decrease of social impacts costs
derived from GHG emissions
• Decrease of resources for subsidies
Abatement of Scrappage (old vehicles) Policy evolution
3. It developed as a NAMA.
With more benefits:
LESSONS LEARNT
Evolution from CDM, POA, NAMA
Certainty in information
MRV is needed and help improvement
External MRV is positive:
Accounting of impacts will certainty on co-benefits
Institutional arrangements and Capacity Building
