presentation by steven van kauwenbergh
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Presentation by Steven Van KauwenberghTRANSCRIPT
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IFDC
World Phosphate Rock
Reserves and Resources
Presented at
Center for Strategic and International Studies
September 22, 2010
S. Van Kauwenbergh
Geologist and Principal Scientist
Research and Development Division
IFDC
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IFDC
Numerous articles suggest
phosphorus (phosphate rock)
reserves — resources will be
depleted in the 21st century.
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IFDC
Rosemarin, 2004
Rosemarin et al., 2009
Cordell, Dragert and White, 2009
de Haes et al., 2009
Vaccari, 2009
Institute of Ecology, 1971Phosphate rock reserves exhausted, 90-130 years
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IFDC
Source: Cordell, Drangert and White, 2009
Indicative peak phosphorus curve, illustrating that, in a similar way to
oil, global phosphorus reserves are also likely to peak after which
production will be significantly reduced (Jasinski, 2006; European
Fertilizer Manufacturers Association, 2000).
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IFDC
Recent articles on phosphorus
depletion rely on USGS data for
phosphate rock reserve and
resource estimates
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IFDC
Phosphorus From
Phosphate Rock
Two major types• Sedimentary
• Igneous
Composed of apatite• Sedimentary, carbonate apatite
• Igneous, fire formed (fluor-chlor-hydroxl-apatite)
Apatite – ―Apate,‖ Greek Goddess of deceit, guile, fraud
and deception released from Pandora’s Box
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IFDC
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IFDCEconomic and Potentially Economic
Phosphate Deposits of the World
Igneous Deposits
Sedimentary Deposits
Island Deposits
Figure 5. Economic and Potentially Economic Phosphate Deposits of the World.
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IFDC
Global Phosphate
Rock Production
>160 mmt (2008)
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IFDC
Phosphate Rock
72% – Phosphoric Acid
12% – SSP
2% – TSP (excludes P2O5 from PA)
14% – Other Uses(Nyri, 2010)
Total P2O5
82% – Fertilizer
18% – Industrial Uses
Losses range from 2% to 15% with the weighted average of 5%(Prud’homme, 2010)
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IFDCRelationship of Phosphate Rock
and Phosphate Fertilizers
Phosphate Rock
WPASSP Nitrophosphates
DAP, MAP TSP NPKs
NPKs
CaSO4·XH2O
+ Phosphate Rock+ Ammonia
Sulfuric
Acid Sulfuric
Acid
Nitric
Acid
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IFDC
World Phosphate Rock Production(USBM/USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, 1982–2010)
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IFDC
There has been a continuous decrease in
world phosphate rock quality as reserves
of high-grade and high-quality phosphate
rock are being depleted.
—Is this true?
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IFDC
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Wo
rld
P P
rod
uc
tio
n (
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f T
on
nes
)
Year
World Phosphorus Production by Grade
30% P2O5 and under 31% P2O5 32% P2O5
34% P2O5 36% P2O5 and over
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IFDC
Phosphate Rock Has Been a
Relatively Low-Value Bulk
Commodity
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IFDCFertilizer Prices
(FOB, bulk)
Monthly Averages
January 2007–June 2010
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IFDC
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IFDC
IFDC Reserve-Resource Study
Literature review
Past reserve-resource estimates
Evaluate current phosphate rock mining,
beneficiation methods and P2O5 recovery
Make a preliminary estimate of world
reserves and resources
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IFDC
Phosphate Rock Literature Review
Limited since early 1990s
Some information on websites, trade
magazines, conference papers, papers with
limited distribution
Reserve-resource terminology is not
standardized
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IFDCPast World Phosphate Rock Reserve and Resource
Estimates Based on Author’s Terminology
Phosphate Rock
Resources
Estimated
Recoverable
Product Reserves
Reserve
Base
[metric tons x 109 (U.S. Billion)]
Emigh (1972) 1,200
Wells (1975) 530 (30% P2O5)
DeVoto and Stevens (1979) 1,200 265 (~30% P2O5)
Cathcart (1980) 91 20 (≥30% P2O5)
Fantel et al. (1988) 37
Notholt, Sheldon and
Davidson (1989)163 (~22.5% P2O5)
USGS (2009) 15a 47b
a. Originally described as phosphate rock that could be produced at less than US $40/ton.
b. Originally described as phosphate rock that could be produced at less than US $100/ton.
Emigh (1972) – No data for Middle East, North Africa.
DeVoto and Stevens (1979) – Only for free world.
Fantel et al. (1988) – Little or no data for much of Middle East. No data for China.
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IFDC
Mining, Beneficiation,
P2O5 Recovery
Mining – Economic = Large-Scale
Beneficiation – Generally as simple as possible
– Froth flotation employed in U.S. in 1920s–
1930s, employed in North Africa and
Middle East in last 15 years
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IFDC
Reserves and Resources –
This Study
Reserves – Phosphate rock that can be
economically produced at the time of the
determination to make suitable products,
reported as tons of concentrate
Resources – Phosphate rock of any grade
that may be produced at some time in the
future, including reserves
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IFDCPhosphate Rock Reserves as Published
in USBM/USGS Mineral Commodity
Summaries
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IFDC
Reserves and Resources –
This Study
Original or most current literature or other sources
Evaluated if reserves were given as ore or concentrate
Assumed 95% mining recovery
Applied ore to concentrate ratio applicable to the
deposit or processing of similar ore
Calculated reserves as product
Resources are in terms of raw materials at a range of
grades
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IFDC
16
60
286
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
(To
ns
x 10
9(U
.S. B
illio
n)
USGS (2010) Reserves
IFDC Preliminary Reserve Estimate
(Product)
IFDC Preliminary Resource Estimate
290
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IFDC
Reserves
Established on technology, potential
market, prices and costs of production
Established with study and
considerable manpower
Established on a planning horizon (15-
20 years, longer for some producers)
Reserves Are Dynamic
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IFDC
Summary
Phosphate rock is a finite non-renewable resource
Reserves and resources
• Reserves are a dynamic quantity
• There are more reserves than some studies indicate
Need further study
• There is no indication of ―peak‖ phosphorus
Recovery and utilization
• Recovery should be maximized as much as feasible
• Alternative products
Utilize low-grade phosphate rock
Make fertilizer available at the lowest cost