presentation for the macaulay honors college of the city university of new york february 4, 2015...

TM

Presentation for the Macaulay Honors College of the City University of New York

February 4, 2015Joseph Salvo

POPULATION DIVISION

The Population of New York CityRecent Trends and Ongoing Challenges

New York City is Big and Dynamic

3

Population Change for the 10 Largest Cities in the U.S., 2000 to 2013Ranked by Population in 2013

*Achieved population peak in 2013

Geographic Area

Number Percent

1 New York, NY* 8,008,278 8,405,837 397,559 5.02 Los Angeles, CA* 3,694,820 3,884,307 189,487 5.13 Chicago, IL 2,896,016 2,718,782 -177,234 -6.1

Brooklyn, NY 2,465,326 2,592,149 126,823 5.1Queens, NY* 2,229,379 2,296,175 66,796 3.0

4 Houston, TX* 1,953,631 2,195,914 242,283 12.4Manhattan, NY 1,537,195 1,626,159 88,964 5.8

5 Philadelphia, PA 1,517,550 1,553,165 35,615 2.36 Phoenix, AZ* 1,321,045 1,513,367 192,322 14.6

Bronx, NY 1,332,650 1,418,733 86,083 6.57 San Antonio, TX* 1,144,646 1,409,019 264,373 23.18 San Diego, CA* 1,223,400 1,355,896 132,496 10.89 Dallas, TX* 1,188,580 1,257,676 69,096 5.810 San Jose, CA* 894,943 998,537 103,594 11.6

35 Sacramento, CA* 407,018 479,686 72,668 17.9Staten Island, NY* 443,728 472,621 28,893 6.5

Rank

Total Population Population Change

NYC and Boroughs 2000 20132000-2013

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census PL 94-171 Files; 2013 American Community SurveyPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning

Series1

-150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000

2000-2010

Thousands

Estimated Components of Population Change (Annualized) New York City

Sources: Adjusted U.S. Decennial Census data 1970-2010; New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene;

United States Department of Homeland Securityas revised by Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning

Population Change

Natural Increase

Net Migration

Net InternationalMigration

Net DomesticMigration

Changes in the Population Dynamic on the Horizon?

Series1

-150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000

Series1

-150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000

2000-2010

2010-2013

Thousands

Thousands

Estimated Components of Population Change (Annualized) New York City

Sources: Adjusted U.S. Decennial Census data 1970-2010; New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene;

United States Department of Homeland Securityas revised by Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning

Population Change

Natural Increase

Net Migration

Net InternationalMigration

Net DomesticMigration

Migration data are based on year-to-year address changes reported on individual income tax returns filed with the IRS.Does not include the income tax returns filed by those living abroad.

Source: Statistics of Income Division, Internal Revenue ServicePopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning

Migration Patterns for Persons Filing Tax ReturnsNew York City, 1985-2010

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

In MigrationOut Migration

50 States & Puerto

Rico66.2%

Abroad33.8%

Changing Origins of In-migrants to New York City, 1995-2000 and 2008-2012

1995-2000 2008-2012

50 States & Puerto

Rico50.2%

Abroad49.8%

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 2008-2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata SamplePopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning

* Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: 2000 Census-Summary File 1, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-Summary File Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning

2008-2012 Change2000 to 2008-2012

New York City Total = 29.1%

Change

Gain of 2,000 or more

1,000 to 1,999

250 to 999

-249 to 249

-250 to -999

Loss of -1,000 or more

Percent

55.0% or more

45.0% to 54.9%

35.0% to 44.9%

25.0% to 34.9%

Less than 25.0%

(8 neighborhoods)

(11)

(14)

(41)

(114)

(14 neighborhoods)

(15)

(45)

(81)

(24)

(9)

Non-family Householders with a Head of Household Under 65 Yearsby New York City Neighborhoods,* 2000 and 2008-2012

How the Foreign-Born DefineNew York City

2012

2000

1990

1980

1970

0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000

Native-Born Foreign-Born

5,401,440

5,239,633

Total Population by NativityNew York City, 1970 to 2012

5,137,246

6,457,740

1,670,199

1,437,058

PercentForeign-born

18.2

23.6

35.9

28.4

5,200,105 37.6

2,082,931

2,871,032

3,136,592

Source: U.S. Census of Population, 1970 to 2000; 2012 American Community SurveyPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning

Dominican Repub-lic

13.0%

China*11.2%

Mexico5.8%

Jamaica5.7%

Guyana4.5%

Ecuador4.1%

Haiti3.2%

Trinidad & Tobago2.9%

India2.6%

Colombia2.5%

All Other44.6%

Top Ten Sources of the Foreign-born PopulationNew York City and the United States, 2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata SamplePopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning

Total = 3,154,955* Includes the mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

New York City

Mexico28.2%

China*5.6%

India4.8%

Philippines4.6%

Vietnam3.1%

El Salvador3.1%

Cuba2.7%Korea

2.7%

Dominican Republic2.4%

Guatemala2.2%

All Other40.6%

Total = 40,738,224

United States

Bronx

ManhattanQueens

StatenIsland

New York City Total = 3,136,592 (2012 Data)

Brooklyn

Foreign-born

40,000 or more (7 neighborhoods)

25,000 to 39,999 (28)

15,000 to 24,999 (37)

9,000 to 14,499 (63)

Under 9,000 (53)


Total Foreign-born by Neighborhood*New York City, 2008-2012

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey—Summary File Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning

Midwood

Bedford

Fordham S

Beffor PkFordham N

BoroughPk

Rugby-Remsen Vl

East Flushing

Woodhaven

Madison

EVl

Clinton

Whitestone

LaGuardiaAirport

Kew Gardens

Hills

Pomonok-Flushing Hts-

Hillcrest

Auburndale

Queensboro Hill

John F KennedyInternational Airport

S Jamaica

Jamaica

OldAstoria

Baisley

Pk

Ridgewood

MiddleVillage

PelhamPkwy

Williamsbridge-Olinville

Murray Hill

N Corona

Fresh Mdws-Utopia

East Elmhurst

Briarwood-Jamaica Hills

Brownsville

E New York(PA Ave)

Pkchester

Erasmus

SunsetPk E

Cypress Hills-City Line

Greenpoint

Battery Pk City-Lower MN

Hunters Pt-Sunnyside-W Maspeth

Co-opCity

V Crtlndt Vlg

Woodlawn-Wakefield

E Flatbush-Farragut

Glendale

Homecrest

Seagate-Coney Island

Morrisania-Melrose

Bronxdale

RegoPk

CoronaElmhurst

Kew Gardens

Laurelton

QueensVillage

WashHts N Uni Hts

Morris Hts

Marble Hill-Inwood

Bellerose

CrownHtsN

Yorkville

Turtle Bay-E Midtown

Douglas Manor-Douglaston-Little Neck

W Farms-Bronx River

DykerHeights

Far Rockaway-Bayswater

Astoria

Prospect Lefferts Gardens-Wingate

Bay Ridge

SunsetPk W

Gravesend

BensonhurstE

Rosedale

LowerE

Side

SoHo-TriBeCa-

Civic Center-Little Italy

Chinatown

Richmond Hill

Kbridge Hghts

S Ozone Pk

Sheepshead Bay-Gerritsen Beach

Manhattan Beach

Highbridge

WCncrs

JacksonHts

Woodside

Flatbush

UWS

UES-Carnegie Hill

LincolnSquare

Murray Hill-Kips Bay

MorningsideHts

Elmhurst-Maspeth

StuyvesantHts

N Side-S Side

Forest

Hills

Pk Slope-Gowanus

Steinway

Soundview-Castle Hill-Clason Pt-Harding Pk

Soundview-Bruckner

Cntrl Harlem N-Polo Grounds

Central Harlem S

Mott Haven-Port Morris

E Harlem

N

Hudson Yards-Chelsea-Flatiron-

Union Square

W Vl

BushwickN

BushwickS

Allerton-Pelham Gardens

BrightonBeachW

Brighton

BathBeach

BensonhurstW

Jamaica Estates-Holliswood

Hollis

Maspeth

OaklandGrdns

Bayside-Bayside Hills

Flushing

CollegePt

WashHts S

Mt Hope

E Cncrs-Cncrs Vl

New Springville-Bloomfield-

Travis

Georgetown-Marine Pk-

Bergen Beach-Mill Basin

Canarsie

Flatlands

East New York

HamiltonHts

Melrose S-Mott Haven N

St.

Albans

E Harlem

S

Lenox Hill-Roosevelt Island

Norwood

Manhattanville

E Tremont

Changes and Persistent Challenges

Population Growth by Race/Hispanic OriginNew York City, 2000-2012

Black nonhispanic White nonhispanic Asian nonhispanic Hispanic0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2000 2012

PercentChange = -2.4 11.4-3.9 39.0

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: 2000 Censuses-Summary File 1; 2012 American Community SurveyPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning

Chinese**47%

Asian Indian19%

Korean9%

Filipino7%

Bangladeshi5%

Pakistani4%

Japanese2%

Vietnamese1%

Other5%

Puerto Rican31%

Dominican Republic26%

Mexican14%

Ecuadorian8%

Colombian4%

Salvadoran2%

Honduran2%

Other12%

Hispanic and Asian SubgroupsNew York City, 2012

Total = 2,377,486

Asian*Hispanic

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey- 3 Year EstimatesPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning

*Includes a small number of Asians who are of Hispanic origin.** Includes Taiwanese

Total = 1,064,658

Speaks

Eng-lish at

Home

396242851%

Eng-lish Pro-fi-

cient204407026%

Not Eng-lish Pro-fi-

cient178985823%

Persons by English Language Ability

New York City, 2012

Total Persons Ages 5 and Over = 7,796,356

Speakslanguageother than

Englishat home

49% 3,833,928


Limited English Proficient Population by Language Spoken at Home

New York City, 2012

* Includes Chinese, Cantonese, Mandarin, and Formosan

Number Percent

Total LEP 1,789,858 100.0

Top LEP LanguagesSpanish 882,606 49.3Chinese* 305,734 17.1Russian 115,371 6.4French Creole 54,237 3.0Bengali 44,568 2.5Korean 43,992 2.5Italian 26,953 1.5Polish 24,270 1.4Arabic 23,799 1.3


** Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods.

Percent of Population* Not Proficient in English by Neighborhood Tabulation Area**New York City, 2008-2012

* Population 5 years and over

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinderPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning


Bronx

Queens

StatenIsland

Manhattan

Brooklyn

Percent Not Proficient in English

50.0% or more

40.0% to 49.9%

30.0% to 39.9%

23.0% to 29.9%

Less than 23.0%

(8 neighborhoods)

(14)

(35)

(31)

(100)

20

Percent College Graduates by Neighborhood Tabulation Area*New York City, 2008-2012



Percent Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

60.0% or more

40.0% to 59.9%

30.0% to 39.9%

20.0% to 29.9%

Less than 20.0%

(20 neighborhoods)

(26)

(34)

(58)

(50)


Bronx18.1%

Queens29.9%

StatenIsland29.0%

Manhattan58.2%

Brooklyn29.8%

Top Neighborhoods1.West Village

2.Upper East Side-Carnegie Hill

3.Brooklyn Heights-Cobble Hill

4.Turtle Bay-East Midtown

5.Lincoln Square

Lowest Attainment1.Williamsburg

2.North Corona

3.Longwood

4.Claremont-Bathgate

5.Hunts Point

21

8.8 8.2 7.1 6.8 8.5

15.8 14.9 13.2 12.714.5

24.923.7

21.3 21.523

47.2 50.8 56.4 56.750.8

5th Quintile

4th Quintile

3rd Quintile

2nd Quintile

1st Quintile

Pe

rce

nt

Ag

gre

ga

te I

nc

om

eShares of Aggregate Household Income by QuintileNew York City, 1980-2011 and United States, 2011

Top 20% of households have aggregate income =

2.0 2.32.4 3.23.2

1980 1990 2000 2011 2011

New York City U.S.

Source: 1980 and 1990 PUMS, 2000 U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey Public Use MicrodataPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning

22

100

75

50

25

0

Poverty Rate by Neighborhood Tabulation Area*New York City, 2008-2012



Poverty Rate

45.0% or more

35.0% to 44.9%

25.0% to 34.9%

15.0% to 24.9%

Less than 15.0%

(4 neighborhoods)

(15)

(32)

(48)

(89)


Bronx29.3%

Queens14.4%

StatenIsland11.3%

Manhattan17.5%

Brooklyn22.7%

Top Neighborhoods1.Williamsburg

2.Belmont

3.Claremont-Bathgate

4.Hunts Point

5.East Tremont

23

Persons with Ratio of Income to Poverty Level of 1.00 to 1.99by Neighborhood Tabulation Area*New York City, 2008-2012


New York City = 19.7%

Percent

30.0% or more

25.0% to 29.9%

20.0% to 24.9%

15.0% to 19.9%

Less than 15.0%

(6 neighborhoods)

(35)

(48)

(43)

(56)


Bronx24.5%

Queens19.3%

StatenIsland12.8%

Manhattan15.4%

Brooklyn21.2%

Top Neighborhoods1.North Corona

2.Sunset Park East

3.Mott Haven-Port Morris

4.Melrose South-Mott Haven North

5.Highbridge

24


New York City = 14.3%

Percent Uninsured

25.0% or more

20.0% to 24.9%

15.0% to 19.9%

10.0% to 14.9%

Less than 10.0%

(9 neighborhoods)

(20)

(49)

(49)

(61)


Bronx15.9%

Queens17.6%

StatenIsland7.7%

Manhattan10.9%

Brooklyn13.8%

Percent of Population with no Health Insurance Coverageby Neighborhood Tabulation Area*New York City, 2008-2012

Top Neighborhoods1.North Corona

2.Bushwick North

3.East Elmhurst

4.Elmhurst

5.Corona

25

Population Projections

2010: 8,242,6242040: 9,025,145

468,730501,109

2,552,9112,840,525

2,250,0022,412,649

1,385,1081,579,245

1,585,8731,691,617

Population Projections by BoroughNew York City, 2010 and 2040

Bronx

Manhattan

Queens

Brooklyn

Staten Island

New York City

Sources: 2010 Census Bureau Estimates (DCP adjusted population in BK and QN), 2040 Department of City Planning Population ProjectionsPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning

% Change: 9.5 6.7

14.0

7.2

11.3

6.9

2010: 1,002,2082040: 1,409,708

59,34497,883

294,610428,845

288,219377,060

145,882228,476

214,153277,444

Projections for the Population 65 and Over by BoroughNew York City, 2010 and 2040

Bronx

Manhattan

Queens

Brooklyn

Staten Island

New York City

Sources: 2010 Census Bureau Estimates (DCP adjusted population in BK and QN), 2040 Department of City Planning Population ProjectionsPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning

% Change: 40.7 29.6

56.6

30.8

45.6

64.9

Data Links

• DCP Population Division Web site: www.nyc.gov/population

• New York City Census FactFinder: www.nyc.gov/cff

• Census Bureau Web site: www.census.gov

http://www.nyc.gov/population

http://www.nyc.gov/cff

http://www.census.gov/

presentation for the macaulay honors college of the city university of new york february 4, 2015...

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