presentation of evaluation of world bank group support to youth employment
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Presentation made by Emmanuel Jimenez at the Youth Employment workshop in Abuja, Nigeria.TRANSCRIPT
Addressing Youth Employment: Evidence from Evaluation and Research at the World Bank Group
Youth Employment WorkshopAbuja, Nigeria
July 2013
Emmanuel Jimenez, Pia Schneider, Xue Li, Susan Caceres, YE team
Independent Evaluation Group
Two questions
► What has IEG learned from its review of what works to address youth employment issues?• Source: A Systematic Review of Evaluations of Youth
Employment Programs 2012• Messages:
– Diversity across countries of issues and of programs and policies– Mix and paucity of evidence on what works
► What has IEG learned from its evaluation of the WBG?• Source: Youth Employment Programs: An evaluation of World
Bank and International Finance Corporation Support 2012• Evaluation Questions:
– How has the World Group supported countries tackling youth employment problems?
– What is the evidence regarding the effectiveness of that support?
Diversity of the Issue: Expected Increase in Youth Population by Region
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
EAPECALACMENASARSSA
Source: World Bank Staff, based on data from HNPstats
Differences in youth employment across countries need different approaches
Nature of Problem ContextHigh formal sector unemployment for all young workers
Economic crisis, structural reforms and lack of job creation in all countries
Youth cohort growth is larger than job growth (e.g. Sub-Saharan Africa)
High unemployment for highly-educated youth
Voluntary unemployment among higher-income youth in MICs and LICs (e.g. Sri Lanka and MENA region)
Large number of casual, low-productivity, low-paid jobs held by youth
In MICs and LICs with a small formal sectorRural areas (farm and off-farm)Children in workforce and low school enrollment
High unemployment concentrated in subgroups of youth (minorities, poor)
Regional disparities in all countriesDiscrimination against subgroups
Youth Employment Interventions, by Categories
Fostering job creation/work opportunities
Smoothing school-to-work transition and job mobility
Fostering skill development and labor market relevance of skills
Regulations to encourage the hiring of young people
Training in entrepreneurship or business management and support to start businesses Wage subsidies
Direct job creation (public works programs)
Counseling, job search skills, information on vacancies, placement
Improving the quality of formal technical and vocational education and training (TVET) Non-formal remedial education/second chance training programs including training subsidies and vouchers Expanding/improving work-based learning Training combined with multiple interventions (training dominates)
Improving the business and investment climate**Not yet evaluated
Improving information on labor market , Program for overseas employment of young people*
Certification of skills, Providing information on training, Support for transportation and change of residence*
Findings from the Systematic Review
► Review of 36 studies conducted between 2000 and 2011
►Evaluation questions:• What types of youth employment programs
work best in which context? • What key features in implementation design
and targeting explain variations in employment and earnings in different economic contexts?
Findings: Mixed Results
► Formal TVET more promising than short-term courses
► Smoothing school to work transition and facilitating job mobility inconclusive
► Among job creations interventions, wage subsidies are most promising• Direct employment programs and labor
market regulations have mixed results• Entrepreneurship training has significant but
small effects
Examples of Recent Evaluations
► Tunisia Non academic entrepreneurship training track at the university level can lead to more self-employment
(Premand et al. “Entrepreneurship training and self employment among university graduates: evidence from a randomized trial in Tunisia”, December 2011)
► Uganda Unrestricted grants for training can enhance self-employment among groups in poor settings
(Blattman et al. 2011: Employment generation in rural Africa: midterm results from an Experimental Evaluation of the Youth Opportunities Program in Northern Uganda).
Evidence paltry: Mixed and More is needed especially in LICs
OECD MIC LIC0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Foster skill development (E)School to work transition and facilitate job mobility (L) Foster job creation (I)
Num
ber o
bser
vatio
ns
Skill development is most often evaluated in international Impact Evaluation literature
Two questions
► What has IEG learned from its review of what works to address youth employment issues?• Diversity of issues• Diversity of programs and policies• Mix and paucity of evidence on what works
► What has IEG learned from its evaluation of the WBG?• How has the World Group supported countries
tackling youth employment problems? • What is the evidence regarding the effectiveness
of that support?
What is the Bank doing?
11
11.5
12
12.5
13
13.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Yo
uth
Un
em
plo
yme
nt R
ate
(%)
US$
Mil
lio
ns
Fiscal Year of Approval
IBRD Actual IDA Actual Youth Unemployment Rate
World Development Report on Youth
Global Crisis
Youth Unemployment Rate
Between FY01 and FY11, the Bank loaned $2.85 billion to youth employment through 90 operations in 57 countries, reflecting 0.9% of total lending
Where did lending and analytic support for youth employment go?
► 70% of lending to 10 countries, and 30% to 47 countries
► Education • 40% of 90 projects and of $2.35 billion lending for YE• Other sectors: social protection, finance and private sector development,
economic management, social development, gender,
► Projects have a supply-side approach:• Most often supported: Labor market information, quality of formal Technical-
Voc Education and Training TVET, information on training, skills recognition • Few interventions to support hiring, self-employment, business environment• Comprehensive approach missing including demand-side
► In the Africa region, analytic work tends to focus on formal employment in the urban areas. • Few Bank reports examine youth employment in rural low-income areas, and
employment opportunities in agriculture although the majority of low-income youth live in rural areas.
What is the evidence regarding the effectiveness of Bank support?
► Youth employment is not a strategic issue in most WB country strategies
► Evidence is scant on employment/earning effect in projects:• Tracer studies find positive employment and earning effects of
TVET• Workplace training increases effectiveness of formal TVET, but is
restricted by small formal sector • Little is known from Bank support to:
– Smoothing the transition from school to work and facilitating job mobility– Job creation / work opportunity interventions
► Few Bank operations identify impact on low-income youth► Need better diagnostics to inform policy
Some program features lead to better post-program results in employment and earnings
► Programs with multiple interventions that complement each other – such as class-room and on-the-job training with job search assistance
► Wage subsidies are promising if there is a strong private sector and youth have an opportunity to learn on the job, and attend regular training• Problem of low uptake among employers
► Programs need to be managed professionally and employment bureau needs to provide regular follow up. • Job search assistance is often not well implemented
Key lessons for Bank 1: A comprehensive approach is more effective than isolated interventions
► A comprehensive approach includes interventions that address:• Supply- and demand-side for youth, and • constraints in labor, credit and land market for
youth
► In rural low-income areas, programs are essential for stimulating:• market environment for growth of farms • household enterprises• rural agribusinesses • Access for rural youth to land, credit and skill
Lessons for Bank 2: Take a strategic and evidence-based approach
► Work across sectors and in rural areas:• Work with private sector • Work in rural low-income areas
► Better and more diagnostics are needed:• On youth employment interventions that target
youth in low-income and rural areas, especially in Africa
• Report results by beneficiary groups, socio-economic background, education levels, geographic areas and gender.
• Conduct cost and cost-benefit analysis of interventions and their fiscal impact.