Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

• Project Purpose and ApproachProject Purpose and Approach• Review of Existing Modeling Review of Existing Modeling

Practice in CaliforniaPractice in California• Methods for Improving Sensitivity to Methods for Improving Sensitivity to

Smart-Growth StrategiesSmart-Growth Strategies• Conclusions and RecommendationsConclusions and Recommendations

Project Purpose and Project Purpose and ApproachApproach

Motivation for ProjectMotivation for Project

Continued growth is increasing Continued growth is increasing congestioncongestion

There is interest in Smart GrowthThere is interest in Smart Growth Local jurisdictions need to be able to Local jurisdictions need to be able to

evaluate strategiesevaluate strategies Local models may not have adequate Local models may not have adequate

sensitivity sensitivity

Purpose of ProjectPurpose of Project

• Examine how local modelingExamine how local modeling is being done in California is being done in California

• Assess how sensitive local models are to Assess how sensitive local models are to Smart Growth Smart Growth

• Identify what supplemental methods are Identify what supplemental methods are being usedbeing used

• Prepare recommendations for how to Prepare recommendations for how to improveimproveSmart-Growth sensitivitySmart-Growth sensitivity

Smart Growth StrategiesSmart Growth Strategies

• Create Range of Housing Create Range of Housing • Create Walkable Neighborhoods Create Walkable Neighborhoods • Mix Appropriate Land Uses Mix Appropriate Land Uses • Provide a Variety of Transportation Provide a Variety of Transportation

Choices Choices • Direct Development Towards Existing Direct Development Towards Existing

Communities Communities • Take Advantage of Compact Building Take Advantage of Compact Building

Design Design

Desired Smart-Growth EffectsDesired Smart-Growth Effects

• Providing opportunities to satisfy travel Providing opportunities to satisfy travel needs at nearby destinations with shorter needs at nearby destinations with shorter vehicle trips, trip chaining or non-motorized vehicle trips, trip chaining or non-motorized traveltravel

• Using land use to create trips with origin-Using land use to create trips with origin-destination pairs that are more easily destination pairs that are more easily traveled by alternative modestraveled by alternative modes

• Providing better and more attractive Providing better and more attractive conditions for travel by alternative modes conditions for travel by alternative modes

• Providing economic incentives for use of Providing economic incentives for use of alternative modes alternative modes

Project ApproachProject Approach

• Literature ReviewLiterature Review Conventional Transportation Modeling, Local Conventional Transportation Modeling, Local

Models, Models, Smart-Growth Sensitive MethodsSmart-Growth Sensitive Methods

• Survey of Local Jurisdiction PracticeSurvey of Local Jurisdiction Practice• Case Study of Six Local JurisdictionsCase Study of Six Local Jurisdictions• Sensitivity Test of Supplemental Method – Sensitivity Test of Supplemental Method –

4D Elasticities 4D Elasticities • Formulation of Conclusions and Formulation of Conclusions and

RecommendationsRecommendations

Review of Existing Review of Existing Modeling Practice in Modeling Practice in

CaliforniaCalifornia

Uses of Models in Local Land-Uses of Models in Local Land-Use and Transportation Use and Transportation PlanningPlanning• Visioning/Policy Development Visioning/Policy Development • General Plan or Specific PlanGeneral Plan or Specific Plan• Transportation Investment Study/Corridor Transportation Investment Study/Corridor

StudyStudy• Traffic Impact or Development Fee Traffic Impact or Development Fee

ProgramProgram• Traffic Impact Analysis/CEQA Analysis for Traffic Impact Analysis/CEQA Analysis for

New DevelopmentNew Development

Urban Transportation Modeling Urban Transportation Modeling System (UTMS)System (UTMS)• Use in local modeling is almost universal Use in local modeling is almost universal • Often referred to as the “Four-Step Model” Often referred to as the “Four-Step Model”

– Generation, Distribution, Mode Choice – Generation, Distribution, Mode Choice and Assignmentand Assignment

• Trip-basedTrip-based• Network-basedNetwork-based• Zonal representation of trip makersZonal representation of trip makers

Common UTMS Limitations Common UTMS Limitations Affecting Smart-Growth Affecting Smart-Growth SensitivitySensitivity• Trips not relatedTrips not related• Consideration of only Consideration of only

vehicle tripsvehicle trips• No modeling of No modeling of

walking and bicyclingwalking and bicycling• Fixed vehicle trip Fixed vehicle trip

rates by land use typerates by land use type• Land use not affected Land use not affected

by travel patternsby travel patterns

• Design not reflected Design not reflected in choicein choice

• Zonal aggregation of Zonal aggregation of decision makersdecision makers

• Focus on peak-period Focus on peak-period traveltravel

• Zones often too largeZones often too large

Common Practice by Local Common Practice by Local JurisdictionsJurisdictions• In area with large MPO –SANDAG, SCAG, MTC, In area with large MPO –SANDAG, SCAG, MTC,

SACOGSACOG Usually a focused version of MPO modelUsually a focused version of MPO model May also be a focused version of County (CMA) modelMay also be a focused version of County (CMA) model MPO models multimodal and include non-motorized modesMPO models multimodal and include non-motorized modes Local models may not carry all functions of MPO modelLocal models may not carry all functions of MPO model

• In area with medium MPOIn area with medium MPO Often the same modelOften the same model Usually includes mode choiceUsually includes mode choice

• In area with small MPO or no MPOIn area with small MPO or no MPO Often most basic UTMS vehicle-trip modelOften most basic UTMS vehicle-trip model

Methods for Improving Methods for Improving Sensitivity to Smart-Sensitivity to Smart-Growth StrategiesGrowth Strategies

Methods for Increasing Methods for Increasing Smart-Growth SensitivitySmart-Growth Sensitivity• Enhancement of UTMS ModelsEnhancement of UTMS Models• Activity-Based Travel Models Activity-Based Travel Models • Fully Integrated Land Use and Fully Integrated Land Use and

Transportation ModelsTransportation Models• Application of Smart-Growth Trip and VMT Application of Smart-Growth Trip and VMT

Elasticities (4Ds) Estimated from Elasticities (4Ds) Estimated from Aggregate Zonal DataAggregate Zonal Data

UMTS Improvement OptionsUMTS Improvement Options• Smaller ZonesSmaller Zones• Mode ChoiceMode Choice• Non-Motorized Modes Non-Motorized Modes

in Mode Choicein Mode Choice• Modeling Multiple Modeling Multiple

Modes of Access to Modes of Access to TransitTransit

• Distribution Sensitive Distribution Sensitive to Multi-Modal Optionsto Multi-Modal Options

• Auto Ownership Auto Ownership Sensitive to Land-UseSensitive to Land-Use

• Income Stratification Income Stratification • Disaggregate Disaggregate

Simulation of Simulation of HouseholdsHouseholds

• Activity-based Activity-based ModelingModeling

• Integrated Integrated Transportation-Land Transportation-Land Use ModelingUse Modeling

Logical Progression of Steps Logical Progression of Steps to Improve UTMS Sensitivityto Improve UTMS Sensitivity

High-Sensitivity Models

Moderate-Sensitivity Models

Low-Sensitivity Models

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4D Elasticities4D Elasticities• DensityDensity – population and employment per – population and employment per

square milesquare mile• DiversityDiversity – ratio of jobs to housing– ratio of jobs to housing• DesignDesign – pedestrian environment – pedestrian environment

variables including street grid density, variables including street grid density, sidewalk completeness and route sidewalk completeness and route directnessdirectness

• DestinationDestination (Accessibility) – mean travel (Accessibility) – mean travel time to all other destinations with a regiontime to all other destinations with a region

• 5th D – Distance5th D – Distance – Distance to rail transit – Distance to rail transit

4D Elasticity Values4D Elasticity Values

Source: Criterion Planners/Engineers With Fehr & Peers Associates, October 2001.

Sensitivity Test of 4D Sensitivity Test of 4D ElasticitiesElasticities• Demonstrated reduction in Demonstrated reduction in

vehicle trips and VMT from vehicle trips and VMT from Smart-Growth strategiesSmart-Growth strategies

• Changes in transit service Changes in transit service had no effect on 4D resultshad no effect on 4D results

• Sophisticated UTMS Sophisticated UTMS modeling methods capture modeling methods capture most of the 4D effectsmost of the 4D effects

4D Experience in California4D Experience in California

• Software optionsSoftware options GIS-based planning packages – INDEX and GIS-based planning packages – INDEX and

PLACEPLACE33SS Post Processor to UTMS ModelPost Processor to UTMS Model

• ApplicationsApplications INDEX – Fresno and Madera Councils of INDEX – Fresno and Madera Councils of

Government, City of Sacramento, Sacramento Government, City of Sacramento, Sacramento County, San Luis Obispo CountyCounty, San Luis Obispo County

PLACEPLACE33S – Sacramento RegionS – Sacramento Region UTMS Post Processor – Sacramento Region, UTMS Post Processor – Sacramento Region,

Contra Costa County, Humboldt County, Contra Costa County, Humboldt County, Development ProposalsDevelopment Proposals

Conclusions Conclusions and and

RecommendationsRecommendations

Conclusions –Conclusions –Local Model Sensitivity to Local Model Sensitivity to Smart Growth StrategiesSmart Growth Strategies• Many local jurisdictions use models that have Many local jurisdictions use models that have

almost no sensitivity to Smart-Growth almost no sensitivity to Smart-Growth strategiesstrategies

• Local jurisdictions using MPO or CMA models Local jurisdictions using MPO or CMA models with more sophisticated features capture with more sophisticated features capture some of the Smart-Growth sensitivity but it is some of the Smart-Growth sensitivity but it is not clear how much is capturednot clear how much is captured

• GIS systems making more sensitivity possibleGIS systems making more sensitivity possible

Conclusions –Conclusions –Supplemental MethodsSupplemental Methods• 4D elasticities capture some of the 4D elasticities capture some of the

Smart-Growth sensitivity but not all Smart-Growth sensitivity but not all • The 4D elasticities capture some unknown The 4D elasticities capture some unknown

trip-reduction effects as a result of trip-reduction effects as a result of correlationcorrelation

• The 4D elasticities can estimate reduced The 4D elasticities can estimate reduced VT and VMT that are assumed to be made VT and VMT that are assumed to be made on transit, even if there is little or not on transit, even if there is little or not transit service transit service

Recommendations –Recommendations –Local Jurisdiction PracticeLocal Jurisdiction Practice

• Local jurisdictions with moderate-to-high-Local jurisdictions with moderate-to-high-sensitivity models should strive to sensitivity models should strive to continue continue to enhance their models for Smart-Growth to enhance their models for Smart-Growth sensitivitysensitivity

• Local jurisdictions with low-sensitivity Local jurisdictions with low-sensitivity models should consider using a 4D post models should consider using a 4D post processorprocessor

Recommendations –Recommendations –Research Development and Research Development and TrainingTraining• More research, More research,

development and development and training needed to training needed to support more support more sophisticated modeling sophisticated modeling by local jurisdictionsby local jurisdictions

• More research should be More research should be conducted to support conducted to support 4D elasticities or other 4D elasticities or other post processing post processing methods methods