presentation to dakota county leadership -...

Presentation to Dakota County Leadership Susan Brower, Ph.D. Minnesota State Demographer June 11, 2014

Topics for

today

2 big demographic trends that will shape your work & community

Your questions and insights

Trend #1:

Population aging will

permanently change our

communities and

workplaces

How many additional “older adults” will Minnesota gain during this decade?

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau

85 55 71 67

47

91

- - - - -

1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s

Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)

Unprecedented increases in MN’s “older adult” population

85 55 71 67

47

91

285

335

97 66 56

1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s

Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center Projections

Why are these changes so marked now?

250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

Under 5 5 to 9

10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84

85+

Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2012

Male Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

65 years in 2014

Older adults (65+) in 2012 Dakota County ~ 11%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.

Age profile of Dakota County

20000 10000 0 10000 20000

0 to 45 to 9

10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 7980 to 84

85+

Population by age and sex Dakota, 2015

FemaleMale

Sources: MN State Demographic Center Projections

Age profile of Dakota County in 10 years

20000 10000 0 10000 20000

0 to 45 to 9


85+


FemaleMale


Age profile of Dakota County in 20 years

20000 10000 0 10000 20000

0 to 45 to 9


85+


FemaleMale


More than 1 in 4 Dakota County residents will be 65+ by 2035

53,107 13%

128,154 27%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 203565+, number 65+, percent


Older Dakota County residents will outnumber youth for the first time before 2030

53,107

136,947

114,776

110,842

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

65+

Under 20


We’re getting older: So what?

• Public costs associated with older adults are high, different demand for services

• Older adults generate less tax revenue

• Aging will change the availability of workers

Labor force growth is projected to slow

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections

1.9%

2.7%

1.5% 1.5%

0.9%

0.5% 0.3%

0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%

Labor force participation of older adults has increased only slightly

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

16 26 36 46 56 66 76 86

Rates of labor force participation 2000 and 2012

2000

2012


Dakota County will experience organizational & cultural changes as Baby Boomers retire

60+ 13%

55-59 16%

50-54 15%

<50 56%

Dakota County employees by age (1,720)

Source: Dakota County

Trend #2: Most future growth will be attributable to People of Color

Quiz: Over the decade of the 1960s, People of Color accounted for 1% of the total population growth in Dakota County. What was that percentage in the 2000s?

1%

9% 9%

28%

1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010Source: U.S. Census Bureau

A: 81% of Dakota County’s growth between 2000 and 2010 could be attributed to People of Color

1%

9% 9%

28%

81%

1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Dakota, 5%

Hennepin, 11%

Ramsey, 13%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Proportion of Color Twin Cities Metro Counties

1990: 1 in 20 Dakota County residents were People of Color


Anoka, 16%

Carver, 10%

Dakota, 19%

Hennepin, 29%

Ramsey, 34%

Scott, 16%

Washington, 15%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Proportion of Color Twin Cities Metro Counties


2012: Nearly 1 in 5 Dakota County residents were People of Color

People of Color >20% in 2000

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.

People of Color >20% in 2008-12

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.

Dakota County by race, 2012

White, 81%

Black, 5%

American indian, 0% Asian, 4%

Multi-racial/Other, 2%

Latino, 6%


Some improvement on racial educational attainment gaps, but disparities still large

Source: mncompass.org

High school graduation is no longer enough to get an economic foothold

28%

Percent of jobs requiring some post-secondary education Source: Georgetown University Center on Education & The Workforce

73%

The education of all of our residents is

more important than

it has ever been

Minnesota has a high concentration of talent workers

Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

High retention: Minnesota-born workforce is more likely to remain in Minnesota.

MN ranks 4th in Degreed Talent retention, and 6th in Creative Talent retention nationally.

Source: MN State Demographic Center analysis of IPUMS

Source: Hermalin and Neidert, 2014.

Which states attract? Which states retain?

Dakota County is approaching the Silver Tsunami from a position of strength…

• Growing & close to other jobs centers

• Relatively young

• Already relatively racially and ethnically diverse

• Organized around the goal of creating Communities for a Lifetime

Aging will bring:

• Change of leadership

• Increased competition for workers

Increased diversity will bring:

• Continued growth

Increased diversity may bring:

• Challenges in finding traditionally-trained workers

..but unprecedented changes & challenges are ahead

Susan Brower [email protected]

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