presentation to gibbs mba class on disruption and innovation
TRANSCRIPT
April 18, 2023
Innovation and Digital DisruptionBrian PinnockProduct Strategy and Innovation
Cutters, Makers, Refrigerators
AGENDA
Dark side of Disruption
Disrupting Business Models
Guided Innovation
5
Moore’s Law
1010
1960 2010
Transistors per Die Moore’s Law
Intuitive linear view
Source: Martin Grotschel 2010 - http://1.usa.gov/P9kSzY
1,000x
43,000x
1988-200380yrs : 1min
No Moore’s Law for Software?
Artificial Intelligence
April 18, 2023
Dark Side of Disruption
10Exponential Growth
Productivity
Employment
Race against the Machine
Source: Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2012
Index of US Growth GDP vs. Income
GDP per capita has grown faster than real median household incomeSource: Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2012
US Job Growth by Decade
Deep structural issues not just a consequence of the recessionSource: Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2012
Race against the Machine
Source: Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2012
Source: NY Times
Then Now
Disrupting Lawyers
Source: Fast Company
Then Now
Disrupting Pharmacists
Source: NY Times
Then Now
Live Translation
Source: Wired
Then Now
Disrupting Industrial Robots
Source: KPCB
Then Now
Disrupting Driving
April 18, 2023
Disrupting Business
Is it easy to use?
Does it enable people to connect in new ways?
Is it useful?
User Experience
Does it tap new revenue streams?
Is it done at a lower cost?Business Model
Does it change the flow of value?
Does it shift power from one player to another?Ecosystem Value
Evaluating Disruptions
How much of the old value proposition was just lettuce?
Source: KPCB
Then Now
Disrupting Books and Publishing
Source: KPCB
Then Now
Disrupting Music
Source: KPCB
Then Now
Disrupting Print Media
Source: KPCB
Then Now
Disrupting Computing Devices
Source: Bain
Then Now
Disrupting Photography
Source: KPCB
Then Now
Disrupting Video
Source: Tesco
Then Now
Disrupting Retail
Source: KPCB
Then Now
Disrupting Point of Sale
Source: Scientific American
Then Now
Disrupting Insurance
Source: Bitcoin P2P
Disrupting Money
Then Now
April 18, 2023
Disrupting Government
Source: Strange Horizons
Then Now
Disrupting War
Source: KPCB
Then Now
Disrupting Healthcare Access
Then Now
Disrupting Early Education
Source: Economist – World in 2050
Source: Economist – World in 2050
Then Now
Disrupting Higher Education
April 18, 2023
Guided Innovation in a Disruptive World
An Aladdin's cave full of innovation treasure is available to anyone that has the secret password.
Innovation Myth
Innovation
Innovation is a Smurf
word
Semi-RadicalProcess
Innovation
RadicalInnovation
IncrementalInnovation
Semi-RadicalTechnologyInnovation
Change in B
usi
ness
Pro
cess
Change in Technology
Low High
Hig
hLo
w
Types of Innovation
Source: Davila et al 2006
Exert strong leadership on the strategy and portfolio
Integrate innovation into the business mentality
Integrate innovation into the business structures
Align innovation with strategy
Manage creativity and value capture
Neutralize organizational antibodies
Establish networks
Use metrics and incentives
A Recipe for Innovation?
Source: Davila et al 2006
Engage customers directly to generate new ideas. Develop new products and services based on superior end-user understanding. Seek out both articulated and unarticulated needs. First to market. Eg. Apple, Procter & Gamble
Need Seekers
Closely monitor their markets, customers, and competitors, focusing largely on creating value through incremental innovations to their products. A more cautious approach. Depends on being a “fast follower”
E.g. Hyundai and Caterpillar
Market Readers
Depend heavily on their internal technological capabilities to develop new products and services. Leverage R&D investments to drive both breakthrough innovation and incremental change, in hopes of meeting the known and unknown needs of their customers via new technology. E.g.Google and Bosch
Technology Drivers§
Need Seeker strategy offers highest potential of superior performance(Booz & Company’s annual study of R&D spending – 2012)
Types of Innovators
Cautionary Tale: Too much Innovation
Too much innovation and over diversification without taking cognizance of market structure changes.
Innovation = Ideas + motivation
Innovation = ideas + process
Innovation = ideas + leader
“Innovation and ongoing operations are always and inevitably in conflict. But
ongoing operations pays for innovation.”
Innovation = ideas + leader + team + plan + structure
Misguided Innovation Ideas
Source: Govindarajan & Trimble 2010
You don’t shuffle your way from one S-curve to another. You have to jump.
Gary Hamel
Zone of greatest
uncertainty
Dominant force
Emerging change
Weak signal
Horizon 1
Horizon 2
Horizon 3
Time (years)
Happens across 3 time horizonsD
egre
e o
f S
trate
gic
Fit
Source: Baghai et al 1999
Horizon 1Extend and defend the core
Horizon 2Build emerging businesses
Horizon 3Create viable options
Valu
e
Time (years)
Each has a different point of focus
Source: Baghai et al 1999
It depends on the types of projects
The current way of doing business is dominating
Horizon 1 Horizon 2 Horizon 3
Exploring ways to develop but mostly built from the core
Exploring completely new ways of doing things
Annual Operating Plan
Specific Campaigns & Plans
Incremental Innovation
Pure Market Research
Dominant System
Current Business
Invent, Develop, Deploy
Leveraging Existing Capabilities
Metrics: Existing, Harder, Based on Profitable growth
Business Building Strategies
Emerging Concepts & Models
Disruptive, more Collaborative
Needs related
New RelatedNeed to explore
Emerging Business Desirable State
Research, Demonstrate, Disrupt & Discover
Emerging & Existing Capabilities
Metrics: Ring-fence areas of possibledisruption
Place to Explore & Experiment
Aspiration & Future Promise
Radical Innovation
Social Trending & Narratives
Game changing nature in Industry
Viable options, plenty of unknowns
Envision, Explore & Embody
Exploring Radical New Capabilities
Metrics: more on exploring, built on emerging themes
Different skills & Different Measurement
Source: Hobcraft 2012
Vis
ibilit
y
Time
Less than 2 years
2 to 5 years
5 to 10 years
More than 10 years
Years to mainstream adoption:
Obsolete before plateau
Peak of Inflated Expectations
Plateau of Productivity
Slope of Enlightenment
Trough of Disillusionment
Technology Trigger
Hype Curve Matches 3 Horizons
Source: Fenn & Raskino 2008Horizon 3 Horizon 2 Horizon 1
Eff
ort
& Involv
em
ent Ear
ly te
chnolo
gy sca
nning, sco
ping
Track
ing and ra
nking
Early
tech
nology t
rials,
Evaluat
ions a
nd pro
toty
pes
Proo
f of c
once
pts
New Prod
uct B
uilds
(H1 B
usiness
Units
)
Prod
uctize
and R
ollou
t
H2 Teams H1Teams
Market Ready
Technology Trigger
Peak of inflated Expectations
Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity
Impro
ve a
nd Ext
end
H3 Teams
Immature Technology Stage
New Prod
uct B
uilds
(H2 &
Sku
nkwor
ks)
Maturity Models
Individual organisms don’t evolve. Only the species evolves.
Clayton Christensen
April 18, 2023
Discussion
http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2012/12/ff-robots-will-take-our-jobs/
http://www.kpcb.com/insights/2012-internet-trends
http://www.fastcompany.com/1738545/ucsfs-robotic-pharmacy-frees-time-pharmacists
http://www.innovationexcellence.com/blog/2012/08/03/navigating-the-three-horizon-framework/