presented to: nas-wide simulation workshop by: kimberly noonan, faa nextgen and ops planning date:...
TRANSCRIPT
Presented to: NAS-Wide Simulation Workshop
By: Kimberly Noonan, FAA NextGen and Ops Planning
Date: January 28, 2010
Federal AviationAdministrationNextGen Modeling
in NASPAC
Federal AviationAdministration
2NextGen Modeling in NASPAC28 January 2010
Modernized NASPAC Environment
Fleet Evolution
TrajectoryModule
SectorCrossings
CoreQueuingModel
CapacityScheduler
FutureScheduleGenerato
r
OutputParser
ItineraryGeneration
Industry/RegulatoryResponse
GDPGenerator
Preprocessor
(Demand)
OutputParser
Preprocessor (Capacity)
Federal AviationAdministration
3NextGen Modeling in NASPAC28 January 2010
ETMS
TAF
Modernized NASPAC Environment
Wx = weather
TAF = Terminal Area Forecast
MAP = Monitor Alert Parameter
ETMS = Enhanced Traffic Management System
Pareto Curves
MAP Values
Wx
Flight Table
Airport Table
Sector Table
Fleet Evolution
UnconstrainedTraj.-Based
Forecast (2D)
ConstrainedTraj.-Based
Forecast (2D)
TrajectoryModule
4DTrajectories
SectorCrossings
CoreQueuingModel
Delay Wx
Time dependentAirport Capacities
Time dependentSector Capacities
UnsatisfiedDemand
CapacityScheduler
FutureScheduleGenerator
OutputParser
ItineraryGeneration
Industry/RegulatoryResponse
WindField
SectorGeometries
Fuel Burn Rate
Δ Fuel Burn
FlightDelays
FleetForecast
GDPGenerator
Flow RestrictionDefns & Caps
Federal AviationAdministration
4NextGen Modeling in NASPAC28 January 2010
Airport Capacity Scheduler
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0
Departures per Hour
Arr
ival
s p
er H
ou
r
• Modeling airport capacity– Previously
• Used ceiling and visibility to determine VMC, MMC, and IMC conditions and apply associated capacity curve
– Now• Considers wind speed, wind
direction, and time of day• Use special condition curves
– Configuration specific
– Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures (WTMD)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Departures (/hr)
Arr
lival
s (/h
r) VMC
MMC
IMC
Federal AviationAdministration
5NextGen Modeling in NASPAC28 January 2010
• Previously– No GDP module
• Now– GDP generator identifies GDPs and assigns expected departure clearance times
• Given flight times and weather dependent airport capacities• Flights assigned arrival slot based on priority
– Distance based tiers– International flights exempt
– Airport specific GDP triggers • Max flight delay• Max queue length
• Next– Airline response and cancellation module– Probabilistic GDP triggers– Probabilistic weather forecast
Ground Delay Program (GDP)Generator
Federal AviationAdministration
6NextGen Modeling in NASPAC28 January 2010
• Model Q-Routes– Previously
• No special treatment
– Now• Allow equipped flights,
between certain city pairs to fly special routes
• Impose aircraft separation standards using restrictions
Performance Based Navigation (PBN)
2013 Corridor 3
2014 Corridor 2
2015 Corridor 1
2016 Corridor 4
2017 Corridor 5
No.Calif.
So.Calif.
So.FL
NY
DC
LasVegas
Phoenix
Denver
No.TX
Houston
Chicago
ATL,CLT
2013 Corridor 3
2014 Corridor 2
2015 Corridor 1
2016 Corridor 4
2017 Corridor 5
2013 Corridor 32013 Corridor 3
2014 Corridor 22014 Corridor 2
2015 Corridor 12015 Corridor 1
2016 Corridor 42016 Corridor 4
2017 Corridor 52017 Corridor 5
No.Calif.
So.Calif.
So.FL
NY
DC
LasVegas
Phoenix
Denver
No.TX
Houston
Chicago
ATL,CLT
Federal AviationAdministration
7NextGen Modeling in NASPAC28 January 2010
Oceanic Separation
• Previously– Flights flew unconstrained
in oceanic airspace• Now
– Oceanic separation standards imposed using static restrictions
– Considers lead/following aircraft type/equipage to determine separation
• Next – Incorporate altitude
restrictions– Oceanic in-trail climb and
descent
Area/Track System CEP/PACOTS NOPAC WATRS NAT MNPS Minimum Track Spacing
Equipage
50 NM 50 NM 50 NM 53 – 60 NM Lateral Separation
RNP10/RNP4, HF Voice
50 NM 50 NM 50 NM N/A
RNP 4, HF Voice, ADS-C, CPDLC
30 NM 50 NM 50 NM N/A
NAT MNPS authorized
N/A N/A 60 NM 60 NM
Others 100 NM 100 NM 90 NM 90 NM Longitudinal Separation
RNP10, HF Voice, ADS-C, CPDLC
50 NM 50 NM 10 minutes, mach assigned
10 minutes, mach assigned
RNP 4, HF Voice, ADS-C, CPDLC
30 NM 50 NM 10 minutes, mach assigned
10 minutes, mach assigned
Others 10 minutes 10 minutes test 15 minutes 15 minutes Vertical Separation
Up to FL 280 1000 feet FL 290 - 410
1000 feet between RVSM authorized aircraft 2000 feet if both passing aircraft not RVSM authorized
FL 420 and Above
2000 feet
ZOA
Federal AviationAdministration
8NextGen Modeling in NASPAC28 January 2010
• Standard Terminal Arrival Routes (STARs)– Previously
• All flights had continuous descent arrivals• Estimated time/fuel inefficiencies by
historical data analysis
– Now• Assign each flight to a STAR
– based on route and equipage
• Define more detailed 4-D trajectory – with altitude restrictions
• Standard Instrument Departures (SIDs)– Similar technique implemented
SIDs and STARs
Federal AviationAdministration
9NextGen Modeling in NASPAC28 January 2010
• Previously– Baseline equipment data used
throughout forecast
• Soon– Evolve future fleet equipment to
meet forecast – Equipment categories include
• Datacomm • ADS-B In and Out• PBN: RNAV and RNP
Equipage Evolution
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Air
craft
wit
h Eq
uipp
ed
Capa
bilit
y (%
)
Calendar Year
Major Airlines Forecast ScenariosPBN Equipped Capability
RNAV - 1, RNAV - 2
RNP - 0.3
RNP - 0.3 with RF
RNP AR
Notional PBN Forecast
Air Transport ADS-B Equipage
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
Year End
Scen A: ADS-B Out&In
Scen B: ADS-B Out
Scen B: ADS-B In
Notional ADS-B Forecast
Federal AviationAdministration
10NextGen Modeling in NASPAC28 January 2010
Next Steps
• Incorporate Traffic Flow Management (TFM)– Airspace Flow Programs
• Improve Terminal Approach Control (TRACON)– Update and automate arrival fix and departure fix flows– Incorporate fix balancing
• Improve local and en-route weather effects– Model severe IMC conditions
• Incorporate dynamic events– Dynamic rerouting, dynamic sectorization
• Include Monte Carlo simulation capability– Re-factored source code
• Validation, validation, validation
Federal AviationAdministration
11NextGen Modeling in NASPAC28 January 2010
Questions?Questions?