prevention of volcanic ash encounters in the proximity area between active volcanoes and heavy air...

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Prevention of Volcanic Ash Prevention of Volcanic Ash Encounters Encounters in the Proximity Area in the Proximity Area Between Between Active Volcanoes and Heavy Air Active Volcanoes and Heavy Air Traffic Routes Traffic Routes Saburo Onodera Saburo Onodera Flight Crew Training Dept Flight Crew Training Dept ., ., Japan Japan Airlines Airlines

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   Prevention of Volcanic Ash Prevention of Volcanic Ash EncountersEncounters

   in the Proximity Area in the Proximity Area BetweenBetween

   Active Volcanoes and Heavy Air Active Volcanoes and Heavy Air Traffic RoutesTraffic Routes

Saburo OnoderaSaburo Onodera

Flight Crew Training DeptFlight Crew Training Dept., ., Japan AirlinesJapan Airlines

ContentsContents

11 . . Miyakejima Ash Encounter Miyakejima Ash Encounter (Aug.18(Aug.18thth,2000),2000)

22 . . Indirect Factors of Encounter Indirect Factors of Encounter

33 . . Lessons Learned and Proposal Lessons Learned and Proposal   

1.1. Miyakejima Ash EncounterMiyakejima Ash Encounter (Aug.18(Aug.18thth, 2000), 2000)

Explosive Eruption on Aug.18th , 2000

Cloud Top at FL 460

Miyakejima Volcanic Events

0802z   Explosive Eruption begins.

0930z B747 encounters VA at FL340

0932z        B737 encounters VA at FL360

Significant Damage Found on B747

① 3 engines were seriously damaged and replaced at Narita.

②   The remaining engine was also damaged and replaced at the next scheduled check. ③   The windshield was damaged and replaced.

Why Aircraft VA Encounter Could Not be Prevented ?

The Need to Review the Respective Actions / Information at the Actual

Time of Encounter

Actions

- Pilot - ATC (Air Traffic Control) Controller

Available Information

  - VA Transport and Dispersion Forecast - SIGMET,VAA, etc.,

Pilot Action (B747 Case)

 ① Requests ATC to deviate VA area.

 ② Inadvertently encounters VA at FL340.

★ St.Elmo’s Fire.

★ Cockpit Smoke

★ VHF Noise

 ③ Immediately reduces engine power.

 ④ Descends to FL310 to escape VA.

 ⑤ Lands safely at Narita Airport.

MAIN POINT

WHY did the pilot encounters VA despite ATC

instructions?

  

     ATC Controller Action

ATC Instructions   ATC vectored pilots to the furthest easterly route, believing it was the safest course of action.

    However, the route gradually became

  invaded with volcanic ash, and ATC could not provide effective radar vectoring.

WHY ?

- Congested Route Area

- Limited Options - Timely Information

Aircraft Airport of Estimated Narita Flight

Type Origin ATO Arrival Condition

B747 SPN 0824 0859 Normal

B747 SYD 0831 0906 Normal

B747 GUM 0849 0924 Normal

B747 CNS 0905 0940 Normal

DC10 GUM 0916 0951 Normal

B747 SPN 0930 1003 Encounter

B737 GUM 0932 1005 Encounter

Aircraft Sequence and Flight Conditions

③ Available Information  

  (1)   VA Transport and Dispersion Forecast

  (2)   SIGMET, VAA

 

(1)   VA Transport and Dispersion Forecast  

Forecasts were issued and updated fre-

quently well before the eruption began.

However, the forecast was not accurate

enough to satisfy the needs for the area,

where options for route selection were very

limited.

1000UTC0900UTC

(by Tokyo VAAC)

VA Forecast Transport and Dispersion Model

★ Encounter  Point   

(2) SIGMET and VAA (An extract)0802z   Explosive Eruption begins. (live broadcast) 0812z VA report “VA at or above 5000m, ・・”0818z   VAA No1  “ Plume Top FL190”

0825z   SIGMET 1  “ Top FL190 MOV UNKNOWN”           

0840z   SIGMET 2  “ Top more than FL400 Drifting

to E – SE, INTSF”      (Pirep)

0925z   VAA No3   “ Top FL460. Outlook ・・” ( Sat Pic)    

0930z B747 encounters VA at FL3400932z B737 encounters VA at FL360

(2)   SIGMET, VAA Reports

Timing of issue ・・・・・・・・・・ swift and quick

( issued more than 1 hour before encounter)

   Contents of Information ・・・ good as a whole

altitude of VA ・・・・・ ・・・・・ included

moving direction of VA ・・ included

moving speed of VA ・・・・ not included at first

area of contamination ・・・ not included at first

Why was the VA Moving Speed and Area of Contamination Missing in SIGMET ?

Satellite imagery was not made immediately

available after observations. It takes time before the satellite data can be distributed to respective users.

Lack of timely critical information had a great

  impact on ATC’s decision making process.

 

Similar Volcanic Ash Encounter CasesSimilar Volcanic Ash Encounter Cases

The Izu-Oshima Volcanic EncounterThe Izu-Oshima Volcanic Encounter

on 21on 21stst November,1986 November,1986

  Izu-Oshima Volcano Eruption at 0723z(Left)   and   0743z(Right)         on 21st Nov. 1986. (Photo by H. Kamata)  

B747 DC8 DC10 B747

60nm South 40nm East 60nm East of Narita of Oshima of Oshima

Altitude(ft) 20000-30000↑ 30000-26000↓ 20000-23000↑ 17000-10000↓

StaticDischarge On Windshield None On Windshield ?

Odour like Burning Wood

Ash debris of Erosion on Fine small particle W/S, Stab. Scratches

like Found VA on fog patches in pitot tube Windshield

NoneDamage

orDebris

VA Encounter at Izu-Oshima Eruption on 21st Nov. 1986

Location ?

Odour Unusual Odour None ?

1986 2000Izu-Oshima Miyakejima

Eruption Detection ○ ○SIGMET ○ ○NOTAM ○ ○

Satellite Imagery ○ ○ (Split Window) ( X ) ( ○ )

Dispersion Forecast X ○VAAC, VAA X ○

Comparison of the Countermeasurestaken in 1986 and 2000

Year of Incident 1986 2000

Volcano name Izu-Oshima Miyakejima

Encounter Time (L) 1800~ 1830~

1620

1hour40min

Lead Time Before Encounter

1hour28min

Approx Time (L) ofExplosive Eruption

Elapsed Time sinceExplosive Eruption

1702

VA Encounter Could Not be Prevented

(1) Even with much more available

information than 14 years ago.

(2) Even with substantial lead time

before the encounter.

2. Indirect Factors of Encounter 2. Indirect Factors of Encounter

Volcanic Products at Miyakejima Volcano Eruptionsin J UL SEP, 2000-

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

7/8 7/14-15

8/10 8/13 8/14 8/18 8/29 8/30 09/09-10Month/Date

?

t x

1,0

00,0

00,

()

Volume (m3)Weight ( t )

Indirect Factors of VA Encounter at Miyakejima Volcano Eruption

① Difficulty of Predicting Explosive

Eruptions.

② Long Lasting Nature of Volcanic Activity

leads to Decreased Sense of Danger⇒

③ Complacency

3. Lessons Learned and Proposal 3. Lessons Learned and Proposal

“Why the Encounters Could Not Be Prevented?”

Direct Causes

① Lack of Timely Critical Information. e.g. The Moving Speed / Contaminated Area.   Accurate VA Forecast.

② Delay of Positive Decision Making at ATC. e.g. Airspace was closed after encounter.

“Why the Encounters Could Not Be Prevented?”

Indirect Factors

① Difficulty of predicting explosive eruptions.

② Long Lasting Nature of Volcanic Activity.

③ Complacency.

Lessons Learned

Accurate and timely information on the area

of volcanic ash is critical.

In an area where Air Traffic is congested near

Active Volcanoes , ATC decision making on

“Volcanic Ash Avoidance” is crucial .

We do have lead time before Encounter.

(a) More ATC Initiatives and Reliable Forecast(a) More ATC Initiatives and Reliable Forecast

(b) (b) Education and TrainingEducation and Training     ( ) ⅰ( ) ⅰ Basic Knowledge of VA EncountersBasic Knowledge of VA Encounters

        ( ) ⅱ( ) ⅱ Practical Knowledge on VA Avoidance Practical Knowledge on VA Avoidance

(c) (c) Simulated Volcanic Eruption drillsSimulated Volcanic Eruption drills

         

Proposed items to be studiedProposed items to be studied

I would like to conclude my I would like to conclude my talk by thanking thosetalk by thanking those

people who are contributingpeople who are contributingto the prevention of to the prevention of

volcanic ash encounter.volcanic ash encounter.

Thank You. Thank You.

Miyakejima Volcanic Eruptions in 2000

08 JUL. (by NHK TV) 14 JUL. (by S. Nakada.)

Miyakejima Volcanic Eruptions in 2000

10 AUG. ( by S. Nakada.) 14 AUG. ( by S. Nakada.)

The Major Eruptions on 18 AUG., 2000

(by Yomiuri Newspaper.) (by Nikkei Newspaper.) (by Asahi Newspaper.)

The Major Eruptions on 29 AUG., 2000

( by T. Shimano.) ( by T. Shimano.)

Eruptions on 09 and 10 SEP., 2000

09 SEP. ( by O. Oshima.) 10 SEP. ( by S. Nakada.)

Volcanic Activities After One Year     (2001)

09 JUL. 2001 ( by M. Tsukui.) 09 JUL. 2001 ( by M. Tsukui.)

Volcanic Activities After Two Years (2002)

  07 AUG. 2002 ( by M. Tsukui.)     21 AUG. 2002 ( by M. Yoshimoto.)

Volcanic Activities After Three Years (2003)

30 SEP. 2003 ( by M.   Yoshimoto)    30 SEP. 2003 ( by M.  Yoshimoto)

Volcanic Activities After Three and a Half Years (2004)

24FEB. 2004 ( by M.   Ohno.)

Volcanic Events since 2000 to Date at Miyakejima Volcano

Jun., 2000. Volcanic Activity increased. Jul. ~ Aug. Repeated Small Eruptions. Aug.18th. Explosive Eruption.

          2 VA encounters.

Sep.,2000 Volcanic Activity declines, but

    ~     SO2 Emissions continues.

Jun.,2004    Residents are still evacuated.

Year of Incident 1986 1989 2000

Volcano name Izu-Oshima Redoubt Miyakejima

Encounter Time (L) 1800~ 1145 1830~

1620

1hour40min

160nm

1015

1hour30min

Volcanic Ash Encountered Time and Place

60nm

1hour28min

Distance betweenVolcano and the VA

Encounter Point50nm

Approx Time (L) ofExplosive Eruption

Elapsed Time sinceExplosive Eruption

1702

ft

Volcano Height2500ft

VA Encounter at Izu-Oshima Volcano Eruptionon 21st Nov.,1986

60 70NM

DC8

B747 DC10B747

10000400

20000

30000

25000

15000

50302010