prices and prospects for global food security
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Prices and Prospects for Global Food Security. Keith Wiebe International Food Policy Research Institute USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum Arlington, VA February 20, 2014. Outline. Why prices (and incomes) matter Food security past and present Food security over the next decade - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Prices and Prospects for Global Food
SecurityKeith Wiebe
International Food Policy Research Institute
USDA Agricultural Outlook ForumArlington, VA
February 20, 2014
Outline
• Why prices (and incomes) matter• Food security past and present• Food security over the next decade• Food security in the longer term• What can be done?
What is food security?
• 1974 World Food Summit“availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic foodstuffs to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices”
• 1996 World Food Summit“when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”
1974 WFS
1996 WFS
Availability is necessary, but not sufficient
Source: Data from FAO
Food Production
Population
Undernourished
4 dimensions of food security
• availability• global, national, local, household• land, water, inputs, technology, yields
• access• national, local, household, individual• prices, income, wealth
• utilization• individual• clean water, sanitation, health
• stability• variability in any of the above
Photo: Curt Carnemark, World Bank
(March 12 ,2013)
Food security in the United States
Source: USDA ERS (2013)
Source: IFPRI (2013)
IFPRI’s Global Hunger Index
ERS projections for 76 developing countries
Source: FAO (2012)
Number
Percentage
FAO projections of undernourishmentin developing countries
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)
Modeling climate impacts on agriculture:The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)
AgMIP climate scenarios to 2050
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)
The role of agricultural technologies
• Baseline to 2050, including climate change• Linked crop models and
economic models• Assessed 11
technologies for maize, rice and wheat• Impacts on prices,
yields, risk of hungerSource: IFPRI (2014)
Source: Rosegrant et al., IFPRI (2014)
Price effects of climate change
Source: Rosegrant et al., IFPRI (2014)
Price effects of technologies
Source: Rosegrant et al., IFPRI (2014)
Impacts on Food Security
In sum…
• Prices and incomes matter• Because access matters• Because most hungry people are food producers but net buyers of food• Because the poor spend disproportionately on food
• Food security past and present• Food security over the next decade• Food security in the longer term• What can be done?
• Investment in R&D, extension and education• Policies to facilitate market access and trade• Risk management and social protection
