8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

1/17

//://:

]]6

)P/ E( .

.

. .

. :

((P/E

)(

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

2/17

][. . .

.]]] [4 . . .]]5

. ][ . .

(P/E).

. ]]6 . .

][ ]]6 .

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

3/17

...

]]5. . .

.][

.]] [[ ..

.

.

. .

. .]]5]]6

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

4/17

.

]]6 .

]]5 :)(Et= a1+B1t +t :

E=t=.

((B1 =% .

. )

.)((P/E .((P/E

)( . .

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

5/17

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

6/17

:

Yij==t Yik==tYil==t

Yim==tYin==t. .B5

.)( . . :

)(PCHANGEit=a3+B6ECHANGEit+ B7 (Di* ECHANGEit) +it

:PCHANGEit=it t-1ECHANBEit=it t-1

Di= .B7 .

:)(a1377yij+a1378yik+a1379 yil+ a1380yim +a1381yin=PCHANGEit

+ B8 ECHANGEit + B9 (DI* ECHANGEit) +it

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

7/17

...

:

Yij==t Yik==tYil==t

Yim==tYin==t.

B9 .

.

.

.][]]9]]8]]4 :.(NITA) .(CACL) .(CASALES) .(LSALES) .(CATA) .(CASHTA) .(LTDTA) .(WCTA).(RETA) .(OITA) .(EQDEBT) ..(SALESTA)

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

8/17

. ((P/E

. . :

. . . . . . ..

(.) : . . . . . . . .

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

9/17

...

.

. . . . .

. ./

. . : . . .

. . .

. . .

. .

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

10/17

)( ((B..)=%a(

.)( )(

..

. ..

.

.

)).)(

. .

.D*EARN)(B5)(B3

.

..

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

11/17

...

. ) (

(%)

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

12/17

.

:pit= a2+ B2EARNit+ B3 (Di * EARNit) + it

t / ***/EARN /- ***/-EARND / ***/ /

)(:pit= a1377yij+ a1378yik+a1379 yil+ a1380yim + a1381yin

+B4EARNit + B5 (DI* EARNit) + it t- / ***/- / ***/- / ***/- / ***/- / ***/

EARN /- ***/-EARND / ***/ /

%***P.

EARN.D.)()(

. . B7. .D*ECHANGEB8

(P/E).

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

13/17

...

.

:PCHANGEit= a3+ B6ECHANGEit + B7 (Di* ECHANGEit) +it

t / ***/

ECHANGE / **/-D* ECHANGE / ***/

/ )(:

a1377yij+ a1378yik+ a1379 yil+ a1380yim + a1381yin=PCHANGEit

+ B8 ECHANGEit + B9 (DI* ECHANGEit) +it

t- /- */-

- / /- / ***/- / */- / ***/

ECHANGE /- ***/-D* ECHANGE / ***/

/ %%%******

PCHANGEECHANGE

D.)(

)( .

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

14/17

.

.

. . .

F P / / // / / / / / / / / / / // / /

/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

)( .

.

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

15/17

...

.

. ( (

p

n=103

n=57

/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

.((P/E

]6[]5[.

. .

.]]5

. :

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

16/17

.

. .(P/E). .

.

8/14/2019 pro9 .pdf

17/17

...

. . . )( .. . )( .

4. Altman, E. (1968), Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the

prediction of corporate Bunkruptcy,Journal of Finance, 23, PP.589 609.5. Bao, B.H,& Bao. D.H.(2002). Increasing Earnings Firms and their

Characteristics: Evidence From the Taiwan Stock Market", Advances inInternational Accounting. Vol 15,pp.45-64.

6. Barth, M. E., Elliott, J. A. & Finn, M.W. (1999)." Market RewardsAssociated With Patterns of Increasing Eearnings". Journal of Accounting

Research, 37, pp.387 413.7. Garcia, B. E. (1986,). "An Appraisal: Rally Doesnt Herald Strong

Earnings for First Quarter". The Wall Street Journal, l. March 21.8. Hopwood, W., McKeown, J. & Mutchler, J. (1989). "A Test of the

Incremental Explanatory Power of Opinions Qualified for Consistency". TheAccounting Review. 64. pp.28 48.

9. Kane, G. D., Richardson, F,M., & Meade, N. L. (1998). "Rank

Transformations and the Prediction of Corporate Failure", ContemporaryAccounting Research, 15, pp.145 166.

10. Kothari, S.P. (1992), "Price- Earnings Regressions in the Presence ofPrices Leading Earnings: Earnings Levels vs. Change Specifications andAlternative Deflators".Journal of Accounting and Economics, 15, pp.173-202.

11. Loomis, C. J. (2001, Fcbruary), "The 15% Delusion", Fortune,pp.102-108.

12. Weil, J. (1999, January 27) "Travis Boats Appears to Have Its MotorRunning for a Rebound", The Wall Street Journal, T2.