probabilistic risk modelling: the case of bogota...

Probabilistic risk modelling: The case of Bogota District

Agenda

§ Bogota District

§ Probabilistic Risk Modeling

§ Applications § Visualization § Infrastructure design § Scenarios for emergency response § Immediate damage estimation § Indicators for risk management § Land use planning § Benefit‐cost ratios § Financial exposure

2

Luis E. Yamin Omar D. Cardona Mario G. Ordaz Francis Ghesquiere

Bogotá District

• Colombia’s capital and main economic center

• 750,000 residential buildings

• 200 hospitals and health centers

• 3,500 schools and Universities

• Population: Over 7,000,000 (High concentration of pop.)

• Exposed value US$40 Billion only building constructions + infrastructure

Probabilistic Risk Modeling

Hazard Module

4

Exposure Module

Vulnerability Module

Risk module

Hazard

Risk

Vulnerability

x

=

Natural Hazards

EARTHQUAKE HURRICANE INTENSE RAINFALL VOLCANIC ACTION

TSUNAMI

GROUND SHAKING LANDSLIDES

STRONG WINDS

STORM SURGE

HURRICANE RAINFALL

FLOODS

ASH FALLS

BALLISTIC EJECTIONS

PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

LAVA FLOWS

5

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1 10 100 1000

Aceleración [cm/s²]

Per

iodo d

e Retorn

o [añ

os]

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

Tas

a de ex

ceden

cia [1

/año]

Hazard Probabilities

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

160

200

240

280

320

360

400

440

480

520

560

600

640

T = 100 years

T =500 years

T = 1000 years

p= 0.01

p= 0.002

p= 0.001

Scenarios For each location

Socio-economic strata Number of floors Cadastral value

Exposure Characterization

7

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% DISTORSIÓN DE ENTREPISO ( γ i )

DAÑO ( β |

γ i) Muros de carga de mampostería

Marco de concreto Marcos y muros de concreto Marco de concreto contraventeado Columnas y losas planas de concreto Columnas y losas planas de concreto con muros Columnas y losas planas de concreto con contraventeo Muros y losas planas de concreto Marcos de acero Marcos de acero contraventeado Marcos de acero con muros de concreto Estructura prefabricada de concreto Muros de carga de mampostería simple INDUSTRIALES

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% DISTORSIÓN DE ENTREPISO ( γ i )

DAÑO ( β |

γ i) Muros de carga de mampostería

Marco de concreto Marcos y muros de concreto Marco de concreto contraventeado Columnas y losas planas de concreto Columnas y losas planas de concreto con muros Columnas y losas planas de concreto con contraventeo Muros y losas planas de concreto Marcos de acero Marcos de acero contraventeado Marcos de acero con muros de concreto Estructura prefabricada de concreto Muros de carga de mampostería simple INDUSTRIALES

Vulnerability Functions

8

Vulnerability Vulnerability

PROBABILISTIC RISK MODELING

Hazard Hazard Exposure Exposure

Disaster impact Analsyis Scenario or Stochastic

Physical Damage

INFRAESTRUCTURE ECONOMIC SOCIAL ENVIRONMENTAL

Applications Derived From Bogota‘s Model

Hazard and risk visualization

Land use planning and zoning

Hazard assessment for infrastructure

design

BenefitCost analysis for retrofitting

Indicators for risk management

Damage scenarios for emergency response

Immediate damage estimation

Analysis of financial exposure

Hazard and Risk Visualization System

74.2 74.15 74.1 74.05 74

4.5

4.55

4.6

4.65

4.7

4.75

4.8

0 cm/s² 20 cm/s² 40 cm/s² 60 cm/s² 80 cm/s² 100 cm/s² 120 cm/s² 140 cm/s² 160 cm/s² 180 cm/s² 200 cm/s² 220 cm/s² 240 cm/s² 260 cm/s² 280 cm/s² 300 cm/s² 320 cm/s² 340 cm/s² 360 cm/s² 380 cm/s² 400 cm/s²

74.2 74.15 74.1 74.05 74

4.5

4.55

4.6

4.65

4.7

4.75

4.8

0 cm/s 2 cm/s 4 cm/s 6 cm/s 8 cm/s 10 cm/s 12 cm/s 14 cm/s 16 cm/s 18 cm/s 20 cm/s 22 cm/s 24 cm/s 26 cm/s 28 cm/s 30 cm/s 32 cm/s 34 cm/s 36 cm/s 38 cm/s 40 cm/s 42 cm/s 44 cm/s 46 cm/s 48 cm/s 50 cm/s

ACELERACIÓN [cm/s²]

74.2 74.15 74.1 74.05 74

4.5

4.55

4.6

4.65

4.7

4.75

4.8

0.0 cm 1.5 cm 3.0 cm 4.5 cm 6.0 cm 7.5 cm 9.0 cm 10.5 cm 12.0 cm 13.5 cm 15.0 cm 16.5 cm 18.0 cm 19.5 cm 21.0 cm 22.5 cm 24.0 cm 25.5 cm 27.0 cm 28.5 cm 30.0 cm

DESPLAZAMIENTO [cm] VELOCIDAD [cm/s]

Frontal Fault – Ms = 7.4 Tr = 500 years

Hazard Visualization – SCENARIO 1

Flood Probabilities – Scenario 1 to 8

Hazard Visualization – SCENARIOS





design






Ind Descripción w F RF1 Área destruida 31

F RF2 Muertos 10

F RF3 Heridos 10

F RF4 Roturas red de acueducto 19

F RF5 Roturas red de gas 11 >> R F Riesgo Físico

F RF6 Longitud de redes eléctricas caídas 11

F RF7 Vulnerabilidad de centrales telefónicas 4

F RF8 Vulnerabilidad subestaciones eléctricas 4

Ind Descripción w >> R T = R F (1 + F) F FS1 Área de barrios marginales 18

F FS2 Tasa de mortalidad 4

F FS3 Tasa de delincuencia 4

F FS4 Índice de disparidad social 18

F FS5 Densidad de población 18

F FR1 Camas hospitalarias 6 >> F Factor de Impacto

F FR2 Recurso humano en salud 6

F FR3 Espacio público 4

F FR4 Personal de socorro 3

F FR5 Nivel de desarrollo de la localidad 9

F FR6 Operatividad en emergencias 9

Total risk Indicator at urban level

Indicators for Risk Management





design






Design Specifications For Infrastructure Design





design






DAY

INJURED SCENARIO 1

NIGHT

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

A fectado s 7.97% 5.44% 22.55% 19.84% 27.67% 24.97% 11.01% 7.07% 13.31% 19.96%

P erso nas s in Trabajo 1.19% 11.49% 14.34% 3.86% 2.23%

P erso nas s in Viv ienda 0.22% 3.70% 8.74% 0.22% 9.14%

Herido s 0.30% 0.20% 1.13% 0.82% 1.49% 1.10% 0.45% 0.29% 0.44% 0.67%

Vict im as 0.17% 0.11% 0.67% 0.36% 0.91% 0.48% 0.26% 0.16% 0.17% 0.15%

Día No che Día No che D ía Noche Día No che Día No che

T = 250 T = 500 T = 1000 T = 500 T = 500

F ro ntal Co o rdillera Ocidental B enio ff Intermedia Cajita

Persons afected

Impact Analysis

Use of Impact Scenario Analysis

Contingency and Emergency plan • Health services requirements • Location of emergency units • Security information • Debris and construction materials • Housing requirements • Food requirements • Services requirements (water, energy,etc) • Functional vulnerability (roads, emergency routes,)





design






Bogotá Accelerograph Network (RAB) Equipment and Net Coverage

ETNA

K2


Damage Distribution Calculation

Surface Response Spatial Distribution

Physical damage

Human losses





design






LAND USE PLANNING AND ZONING

Seismic hazard map Landslides hazard map Flood hazard map

Amax Identification of main hazards





design






RETROFFITING EXAMPLES

50

0

50

100

150

200

250

1

Unretrofitted Retrofitted

BENEFIT‐COST RELATION, Q

R L L Q R U −

= ∑ ∞

=

− = 1 i

t i

i e L γ β

L U

L R β iR

β iU

t i R

Pr(Q>1)=0.73

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

0.900

1.000

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Q=(L U L R )/R

Pr(LUL

R>R

)

Building+Contents+BI Building+Contents Building

Benefit/Cost Analaysis Health Sector Infrastructure

Salud

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

76.2

76.3

88.1

80.4

96.1

80.1

80.1

80.3

80.1

80.9

80.2

100

102

80.1

80.7

80.1

99.1

199

94.1

80.6

80.5

80.8

85.1

76.1

83.1

87.1

88.2

78.1

95.1

84.2

84.1

104

82.1

77.1

77.2

77.3

77.4

79.1

110

90.2

109

100

98.1

90.1

89.1

108

81.1

75.1

91.4

101

102

79.2

93.1

97.1

103

107

86.1

92.1

Administración

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

223.1

200.1

206.3

217.1

216.1

193.1

221.1

198.2

230.1

211.1

194.1

235.3

229.1

214.1

235.1

229.2

197.1

212.2

235.2

196.2

219.1

206.1

206.2

205.1

213.1

212.1

220.1

218.1

196.1

215.1

234.1

198.1

226.1

189.1

233.1

222.1

Health sector buildings

Administrative buildings

Bogota DVRP – APL2 SchoolRetrofitting Program

Schools Retrofitted 20042008 : 201 Total Budget: $200 Million

BEFORE AFTER





design






∫ ∞

− = 0

) / ( ) ( da a E da a d β ν β

Technical premium

(annual expected loss)

Technical Premium Technical Premium

$ 0

$ 1,000

$ 2,000

$ 3,000

$ 4,000

$ 5,000

$ 6,000

$ 7,000

$ 8,000

$ 9,000

Escala de Tiempo

Valor d

e Pérdida

[MDP]

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500

Periodo de Retorno [años]

PML[%]

Deducible 0% Deducible 3% Deducible 5%

PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS PML PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS PML

Other Possible Aplications

‐ Risk feasibility of infrastructure projects ‐ Risk based design ‐ WEB applications ‐ Environmental risk analysis ‐ Climate change risk scenarios ‐ ….....

probabilistic risk modelling: the case of bogota...

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