producer and winery realities - vinprovinpro.co.za/.../kikks_christo_final_presentation.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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PRODUCER AND WINERY REALITIES
SETTING THE SCENE – 21 JANUARY 2016, NEDBANK VINPRO INFORMATION DAY
CHRISTO CONRADIE - VINPRO
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# EXCUSES MUST FALL
Look at the scoreboard
Acknowledges the reality… AND the elephant(s) in the room
Challenge what’s wrong
Champion what’s right
The next round is due…..”Let’s talk business!!!!!”
We must write the next chapter…..
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Calling out Super Premium or Award
WinnersMerchandising by Wine Style
Promoting by Wine Style
Helpful food matching advice
Merchandising by Promo Mechanic
Merchandising Strategies
Merchandising Own Label together
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WHY ARE WE HERE TODAY?
Producer Reality
- Remuneration
- Renewal
- Costs
Winery Reality (Management & Board)
Sales
Expenditure
Net Revenue
ROI
STAKEHOLDERS
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SA WINE CHAIN REALITY
3300 producers
100,000 ha
92 cultivars
1,5 million ton
580 wineries
(50 = 74%)
1,0 billion litres
±80 million surplus
± 40 buyers = 75%
610 exporters
Local Market:
± 8000 SKU’s
(50 brands = 79% of value)
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CAN YOU SEE THE TREND?THE SOUTH AFRICAN WINEINDUSTRY INSIGHTS SURVEY 2015
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PRODUCER CELLARS : COMPETITIVE INDEX DRIVERS
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PWC 2014 CELLAR INDEX ANALYSIS
(producer cellars > 10,000 ton)
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
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PWC 2014 CELLAR INDEX ANALYSISPRODUCER CELLARS > 10,000 TON
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
Payout ratio
-
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
Interest per ton
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
Avg age of vineyard
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BULK WHITE WINE - BREAKEVEN POINT(AVG. R/LITRE @ PRODUCER CELLAR)
(18.6 tons/ha and 780 litre recovery per tonnage)
R31,944 per ha or R1,717 per ton (Production Cost)
R9,691 per ha or R521 per ton (Provision for Renewal
R1,225 per ton or R 1,57 per litre
(Producer Cellar Cost)
R3 463/ton
or
R4,44/litre
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BULK PRICE PER LITRE - WHITE (REALITY vs INFLATION)
298312
334
372398
416436
461487
517542
298311 314 315
345365 372 383
411438 446
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
cents/litre
Inflation White
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BULK RED WINE - BREAKEVEN POINT(AVG. R/LITRE @ PRODUCER CELLAR)
(12,5 tons/ha and 748 litres recovery per tonnage)
R31, 944 per ha or R2556 per ton (Production Cost)
R9, 691 per ha or R775 per ton (Provision for Renewal
R1,225 per ton or R1.64 per litre
(Producer Cellar Cost)
R4 556/ton
or
R6,09/litre
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BULK PRICE PER LITRE - RED (REALITY vs INFLATION)
440461
494
551590
615646
682721
765802
440406
374 387
459
503534
558 557580 581
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
cents/litre
Inflation Red
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15%
49%6%
30%
2015
12%
57%
2%
30%
2014
17%
55%
4%
24%
2013
SOUTH AFRICAN PRODUCER PROFITABILITY
ASSUMPTIONS: Source: VinPro Production Plan 2015 (23% of Industry) / / NFI(Net Farm Income) = Revenue – Cash expenses – Provision for renewal / / R 21 000 provides for: Entrepreneurial remuneration + Interest on Investment
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TOUGH TIMES FOR AUSSIES
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PRODUCER PROFITABILITY
8%
28%
8%
56%
STELLENBOSCH
14%
59%
0%
27%
ROBERTSON
32%
50%
6%
12%
BREEDEKLOOF
12%
70%
0%
18%
PAARL
8%
67%
17%8%
SWARTLAND
15%
70%
11%
4%
WORCESTER
25%
42%
4%
29%
ORANJERIVIER
5%
56%0%
39%
OLIFANTSRIVIER
9%18%
9%64%
KLEIN-KAROO
ASSUMPTIONS:* Source: VinPro Production Plan 2015* NFI(Net Farm Income) = Revenue – Cash expenses – Provision for renewal* R 21 000 provides for: Entrepreneurial remuneration + Interest on Investment* # Swartland profitable : > R15 500
#
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PwC
VIEWS FROM CHIEF EXECUTIVESOPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
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PwC
An increase in existing markets and the development of new markets, both locally and internationally, remain at the top of the agenda when CEOs consider growth opportunities.
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0
50
100
150
200
250
Cellars Trade Negociants
Millio
n l
itre
2004 2009 2014
EXPORT GROUPS - Who are the players?
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“FOR EVERY COMPLEX PROBLEM, THERE IS AN
ANSWER THAT IS CLEAR, SIMPLE…
AND MOST PROBABLY WRONG!!!”
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CAPE WINE VISITORS
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BUILD AND LEVERAGE – FAST FORWARD(COLLECTIVE EFFORT)
* World-class Wines
* Passionate Winemakers
* Beautiful Winelands
* Biodiversity
* Adaptability
* Product Integrity
* Movers & Shakers – Stories to tell
* Positive International Coverage
* Wine Tourism
* Sustainability Seal
* Local Market Potential
* Diversity in Soils/Climate/Geography
* Production Integrity - Ethical
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ADDRESSING THE REALITIES :-
WISE
* China / USA / Africa
* Tourism
* Brand SA
* Training
Transformation
Committee
Stakeholder
ManagerEnergy Guides
Wine Supply
Chain
• Treasury / Brandy
• Land Reform
• DLC’s
• Khulisa - Brandvlei
• Liquor Act
• BBBEE
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ADDRESSING THE REALITIES :-
WISE
* China / USA / Africa
* Tourism
* Brand SA
* Training
Transformation
Committee
Stakeholder
ManagerEnergy Guides
Wine Supply
Chain
• Treasury / Brandy
• Land Reform
• DLC’s
• Khulisa - Brandvlei
• Liquor Act
• BBBEE
National Development Plan (NDP)
via
Wine Industry Value Chain Round Table (WIVCRT - Governmental Interaction)
underpin by
Wine Industry Strategic Exercise
(WISE)
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MY 2016 RADAR SCREEN ITEMS
Expect a bumpy ride and some painful moments – “Wine Dakar Race” is not for sissies…mental fitness required
MUST leverage from “green+++” – local sales, EPA – +50 million litres, 600k ethical tonnage, Brand SA, new markets….
Status Quo ??? – Business Model/Modus Operandi to be challenged….positive attitude to get better
Firm partnerships/shareholding upstream in value-chain – ‘up’ our ownership
Stakeholders to be active players – not merely spectators, but solution-driven
Cultivar Associations – overarching purpose….’return-on-effort’ to be volume- and value-driven
Manage performance with key measurable outcomes – apply and instill ‘wine supply chain principles’
Tap into technology wisdom
Benchmark and monitor progress – measure, measure, adjust, fine-tune…..patience with lead-lag-initiatives
Focus and invest in market and consumer
Involve external expertise at Board Level
Liquidity and cash flow – financial partner to be an active business partner
Involve the young guns and invite the rock stars & zoo biscuits to perform a ‘GIG’ in your den!!!!!
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CHANGING THE WINE GAME
LEARN FROM THE PAST
LIVE FOR TODAY
WORK FOR THE FUTURE……
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THANK YOU
(PS: Let’s Talk Business)