Synthesis in science and society – part B

Michael Raupach1,2

1Climate Change Institute, Australian National University, Canberra2Global Carbon Project, Future Earth

ACEAS Symposium, 7 May 2014

Thanks: colleagues in

• Institutional environments (CSIRO, ANU)

• International environments (Future Earth, Global Carbon Project)

• Project environments (Australia 2050, PMSEIC, AAS Climate Q&A)

Rapid change in the earth system

Natural (biophysical) world

Rapid changes start in 19th century, accelerate around 1950

Steffen et al. (2004)

Rapid change in the earth system

Human (social, economic) world

Rapid changes start in 19th century, accelerate around 1950

Steffen et al. (2004)

The AnthropoceneBiophysical planetary boundaries

Rockström et al. (2009) A safe operating space for humanity. Nature

Nine biophysical “planetary boundaries” to keep Earth in a Holocene-like state

Biodiversity loss Climate change N & P cycling ------------ Freshwater use Land use change Ocean acidification Ozone depletion Atmos aerosols Chemical pollution

The Anthropocene Natural and human wellbeing are now inextricably entwined

Raworth (2012) A safe and just space for humanity (Oxfam)

A “social foundation” for human wellbeing in the Anthropocene(Raworth 2012)

Water Food Energy Health ------------ Social equity Gender equality Jobs Income Education Voice Resilience

Coping with growth

• Since 1800, global income per person has doubled every 45 years

• Resource flows and global environmental impacts have likewise increased exponentially

Two great challenges

Coping with complexity

• Trade, technology, media, information, cultures, arts, sciences, geopolitics ...

• Way beyond threshold where everyone is connected to everyone else

• => many more ways for instabilities to ripple and grow

CIA World Fact Book: www.cia.gov

Connections: the world trade network

Australia

China

USA

The complexity challenge

We live in a highly connected global society

• Trade, technology, media, information, cultures, arts, science ...

• Way beyond threshold where everyone is connected to everyone else

• Connectivity is increasing (internet, social media, online retail)

Complexity is increasing more rapidly than ever before

=> huge opportunities for innovation and improvement in human wellbeing

=> new dynamics, new instabilities

• Global Financial Crisis: Wall Street misbehaviour hurts whole world

• Children leave the farm for London -> threat to rural viability

We do not know the world we are creating

The complexity challenge: learning wisdom

Outline

Establishing the framework

• What is synthesis?

• Why attempt it?

Examples of synthesis

• Natural sciences: Climate changeThe Anthropocene

• Human sciences: Tragedy of the commons

• Contemporary challenge: Nature and humanity

A synthesis toolbox

• Traditional tools: observation, experiment, modelling

• Tools for synthesis: complexity, evolution, emergence, narratives

• Objective science and subjective values

• Synthesis as story: bridging between the objective and the subjective

The toolbox

Tools of “reductionist” / “essentialist” sciences Observation Experiment Modelling Hypothesis testing

Tools for the disciplines of synthesis Mathematics: the search for unifying quantitative patterns Complexity, evolution, emergence, resilience Narratives Dialogue, learning, adaptation

These are “wormholes”: concepts that connect and unify many branches of knowledge and wisdom

Dennett DC (1993)Darwin’s Dangerous Idea

The evolutionary algorithm (diversify, select, amplify) is the universal engine for the emergence of complexity in biota, ecosystems, economies, technologies and cultures

Complexity is built with a crane, not a skyhook

HJ Morowitz (2002)

The emergence of everything

1. Primordium

2. Large structure

3. Stars

4. Elements

5. Solar systems

6. Planets

7. Geospheres

8. Biosphere

9. Prokaryotes

10. Cells and eukaryotes

11. Multicellularity

12. Neurons

13. Intestinal tracts

14. Vertebrates

28 emergences from the Big Bang to us

15. Fish

16. Amphibians

17. Reptiles

18. Mammals

19. Arboreal mammals

20. Primates

21. Great Apes

22. Hominids

23. Toolmakers

24. Language

25. Agriculture

26. Technology, urbanisation

27. Philosophy

28. The spiritual

Narratives

Narratives = stories that guide and empower actions

• Narratives are very powerful, and fundamental to being human

• Narratives are strong medicine: they engage and move us

• Narratives encode, transmit and propagate values

• Narratives are independent of (scientific) truth

Narratives (in this sense) are NOT –

• Rational, analytic, deductive

• Substrate storylines for scenarios

• Mundane accounts of everyday occurrences

Some related ideas

• Walter Fisher (1984 et seq) “Narration as a human communication paradigm”

• Roger Schank (1990) “Tell me a story: narrative and intelligence”

• John Dryzek (1997-2013) “Politics of the Earth: environmental discourses”

Broad narrative families: Benign world <-> Malign worldIndividual <-> SocietalExpansion <-> Sustenance

Narratives as evolutionary entities

Hypothesis: Narratives are meme sequences that evolve

• Diversification, selection, adaptation

• Evolution can be understood, influenced, but not controlled• Example: the decline of many kinds of violence, in many societies (Pinker 2011)

Implications:

• In shaping our shared future, the evolutionary contest between expansion and sustenance narratives is just as important as the dynamics of the natural world

• We are collectively trying to:

• Guide the evolution of –

• Resilient narratives –

• That empower a transition to –

• A society that is both sustainable and improves global human wellbeing

Raupach, M.R. (2013). The evolutionary nature of narratives about expansion and sustenance. In: Negotiating Our Future: Living scenarios for Australia to 2050, Vol. 2. (eds. Raupach, M.R., McMichael, A.J., Finnigan, J.J., Manderson, L., Walker, B.H.). (Australian Academy of Science), 201-213. (http://www.science.org.au/policy/australia-2050/)

The relationship between values and science

Continuum of modes of discourse for a continuum of realities

• Narratives encode subjective values

• Science encodes objective realities

Subjective values can (should) take account of objective realities

Many objective realities are shaped by subjective values

Values and objective realities can get tangled• Kahan (2013): Partisanship can undermine basic

reasoning skills…. [People] will flunk a math problem simply because giving the right answer goes against their political beliefs

• Nyhan (2010-2013): When people are misinformed, correcting errors with facts only makes them cling to their beliefs more tenaciously

• Nickerson (1998): Confirmation bias

Spirit

Mind

Body

MatterObjective

Subjective

Avoiding confirmation bias:Ensure likelihood ratioprob(Data | Hypothesis) / prob(Data | NullHypothesis)is >> 1 or << 1

Grounds for hope?

Our broadening understanding

• We are (an unusual) part of the long story of evolutionary emergence

• We are both on a journey and part of a set of great cycles

• Everything is dynamic: sustainability is not stasis

• Synthesis is about learning to see the whole picture, thereby gaining wisdom

Our capacities for innovation

• New technologies: energy, transport, cities ... – “we can do this”

• New ethical perspectives: learning to walk in the shoes of another

• Coping with complexity: learning to surf the waves of emergence

Narratives, both old and new

• Stories

• Indigenous, immigrant, farmer, business, art, science, ...

• Creating the narratives that empower transformation

• Openness to strange alliances