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TRANSCRIPT
13 Apr 2018
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The Federalism Project of the Duterte Administration:
A Critique using the Institutional Design Literature in Political Science
Kapihan sa SWS13 April 2018
Gene Lacza Pilapil Assistant Professor of Political ScienceUniversity of the Philippines-Diliman
This lecture is part of my ongoing research project entitled
“A Critical Review of the Federalism Project
of the Duterte Administration”
funded by the Office of the Chancellor
of the University of the Philippines Diliman,
through the Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research
and Development’s Outright Research Grant.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank
Dr. Mangahas for inviting me to lecture in the Kapihan sa SWS;
Mr. Leo Laroza for organizing this Kapihan;
everyone in the SWS for having me;
and all the other members of the audience this afternoon
(including my own invitees)
who have taken time out from their busy schedules
to attend my lecture.
Three Main Aims of the Lecture
13 Apr 2018
1. Assert the importance of the institutional design literature in political science,
the very literature that specializes on the design and re-design of political institutions,
in assessing the Duterte administration’s federalism project (and its broader constitutional overhaul campaign).
2. Give three (of the many) cautionary insightsavailable from the institutional design literature
when attempting constitutional overhauls,especially when involving democratic regimes.
3. Apply these cautionary insights to the Duterte administration’s federalism project
and its broader constitutional overhaul campaign.
Outline of the Lecture
Outline
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
II. Three cautionary insights from the institutional design
literature applied to the Duterte administration’s
federalism project (and its overall charter change campaign)
The lecture runs for about 90 minutes
I. Short Introduction
to the Institutional Design Literature
13 Apr 2018
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
institutions
rules that influence the strategies of state and social actors
1. informal
social values and norms
not written down�
examples: sitting down to listen to a lecture/
standing in front to deliver a lecture
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
institutions
rules that influence the strategies of state and social actors
1. informal
social values and norms
not written down�
examples: sitting down to listen to a lecture/
standing in front to deliver a lecture
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
institutions
rules that influence the strategies of state and social actors
1. informal
social values and norms
not written down�
difficult and take a long time to change (if at all)
�
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
institutions
rules that influence the strategies of state and social actors
2. formal
“written down somewhere as laws, regulations,
constitutions, treaties, and so forth” (John M. Carey)
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
institutions
rules that influence the strategies of state and social actors
2. formal
“written down somewhere as laws, regulations,
constitutions, treaties, and so forth” (John M. Carey)
can be rewritten in a short period of time�
13 Apr 2018
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
institutions
rules that influence the strategies of state and social actors
2. formal
“written down somewhere as laws, regulations,
constitutions, treaties, and so forth” (John M. Carey)
“parchment institutions”
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
institutions
rules that influence the strategies of state and social actors
2. formal
“written down somewhere as laws, regulations,
constitutions, treaties, and so forth” (John M. Carey)
“parchment institutions”
most important: constitution
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
institutions
rules that influence the strategies of state and social actors
2. formal
“written down somewhere as laws, regulations,
constitutions, treaties, and so forth” (John M. Carey)
“parchment institutions”
most important: constitution
most important: constitution
most basic “institutional
framework” of a democracy
(Alfred Stepan and Cindy Skach)
13 Apr 2018
most important: constitution
most basic “institutional
framework” of a democracy
(Alfred Stepan and Cindy Skach)
creates the fundamental formal rules creating other institutions
example:
1987 Philippine Constitution
constitutional bodies
Article IX
legislative branch
Article VI executive branch
Article VII
local government
Article X
judicial branch
Article VIII
an institution that creates other institution/s
most important formal
“meta-institution”of politics
other institutions
different other Articles
If separated = presidential
one basic example: form of government
relation between the executive and legislative
differences in the arrangement of formal rules
If fused = parliamentaryinstitutional design of a country’s form of government
horizontal
If hybrid = semi-presidential
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Unitary system of
government
vertical
single central
source of authority
“makes final decisions”
Another basic example:
13 Apr 2018
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Unitary system of
government
vertical
single central
source of authority
subordinate to the central
powers can be
delegated
single sovereignrecognized by the constitution
“makes final decisions”
Another basic example:
“constitutional sovereignty”
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Unitary system of
government
vertical
single central
source of authority
subordinate to the central
powers can be
delegated
“makes final decisions”
a unitary system can range from highly centralized
(ex. Singapore)
Another basic example:
single sovereignrecognized by the constitution
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Unitary system of
government
vertical
single central
source of authority
subordinate to the central
No powers
aredelegated
“makes final decisions”
a unitary system can range from highly centralized
(ex. Singapore)
single sovereignrecognized by the constitution
Another basic example:
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Unitary system of
government
vertical
single central
source of authority
subordinate to the central
“makes final decisions”
a unitary system can range to highly decentralized
(ex. Norway)
No powers
aredelegated
single sovereignrecognized by the constitution
Another basic example:
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Unitary system of
government
vertical
single central
source of authority
subordinate to the central
“makes final decisions”
a unitary system can range to highly decentralized
(ex. Norway)
Many powers
aredelegated
single sovereignrecognized by the constitution
Another basic example:
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Unitary system of
government
vertical
single central
source of authority
subordinate to the central
“makes final decisions”
a unitary system can range to highly decentralized
(ex. Norway)
Many powers
aredelegated
single sovereignrecognized by the constitution
Another basic example:
13 Apr 2018
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Unitary system of
government
vertical
single central
source of authority
subordinate to the central
“makes final decisions”
a unitary system can be more decentralized than some
centralized federal countries(ex. Indonesia over Malaysia)
Many powers
aredelegated
single sovereignrecognized by the constitution
Another basic example:
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Unitary system of
government
vertical
single central
source of authority
subordinate to the central
“makes final decisions”
a unitary system can be more decentralized than some
centralized federal countries(ex. Indonesia over Malaysia)
may also be revoked
Many powers
aredelegated
single sovereignrecognized by the constitution
Another basic example:
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Federal system of
government
vertical
in certain policy areas where central
government has exclusive jurisdiction
sovereign
Another basic example:
“makes final decisions”
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Federal system of
government
sovereign
in certain policy areas where local
government has exclusive jurisdiction
vertical
Another basic example:
second sovereignrecognized by the constitution
hence, another level of government
also enjoys constitutional sovereignty
“makes final decisions”
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Federal system of
government
sovereign
in certain policy areas where local
government has exclusive jurisdiction
powers cannot be revoked because
� they are not delegated
by the central government
� but guaranteedby the constitution
Another basic example:
hence, another level of government
also enjoys constitutional sovereignty
second sovereignrecognized by the constitution
“makes final decisions”
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Federal system of
government
verticalfederalism can be highly centralized(ex. Venezuela)
Another basic example:
13 Apr 2018
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Federal system of
government
verticalfederalism can be highly centralized(ex. Venezuela)
Another basic example:
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Federal system of
government
verticalfederalism tohighly decentralized(ex. United States)
Another basic example:
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Federal system of
government
verticalfederalism to highly decentralized(ex. United States)
Another basic example:
system of government
relationship between the
central government
local government
Federal system of
government
vertical
Another basic example:
in certain policy areas
where both governments
have jurisdiction
(concurrent/shared)
system of government
relationship between the
Federal system of
government
vertical
in certain policy areas
where both governments
have jurisdiction
(concurrent/shared)
local government
central government
“federal paramountcy”
Another basic example:
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
such as theform of government,
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
13 Apr 2018
such as theform of government,
system of government
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
such as theform of government,
system of governmentelectoral system,
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
such as theform of government,
system of governmentelectoral system,
party system,
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
such as theform of government,
system of governmentelectoral system,
party system, legislative structure,
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
such as theform of government,
system of governmentelectoral system,
party system, legislative structure,
judicial system,
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
such as theform of government,
system of governmentelectoral system,
party system, legislative structure,
judicial system, andconstitutional bodies
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
13 Apr 2018
such as theform of government,
system of governmentelectoral system,
party system, legislative structure,
judicial system, andconstitutional bodies
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
such as theform of government,
system of governmentelectoral system,
party system, legislative structure,
judicial system, andconstitutional bodies
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
affects or will affect, among others,
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
such as theform of government,
system of governmentelectoral system,
party system, legislative structure,
judicial system, andconstitutional bodies
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
affects or will affect, among others, the accountability,
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
such as theform of government,
system of governmentelectoral system,
party system, legislative structure,
judicial system, andconstitutional bodies
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
affects or will affect, among others, the accountability,
representation,
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
such as theform of government,
system of governmentelectoral system,
party system, legislative structure,
judicial system, andconstitutional bodies
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
affects or will affect, among others, the accountability,
representation, popular empowerment,
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
such as theform of government,
system of governmentelectoral system,
party system, legislative structure,
judicial system, andconstitutional bodies
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
affects or will affect, among others, the accountability,
representation, popular empowerment,
elite capture,
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
13 Apr 2018
such as theform of government,
system of governmentelectoral system,
party system, legislative structure,
judicial system, andconstitutional bodies
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
affects or will affect, among others, the accountability,
representation, popular empowerment,
elite capture, and coherent policymaking
of the state
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
(Johan P. Olsen)
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
studies how the design(or redesign) of a country’s
political institutions
(Johan P. Olsen)
“signifies purposeful and deliberate intervention
that succeeds in establishing new institutional structures and processes,
or rearranging existing ones, thereby achieving intended outcomes
and improvements”
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
“constitutional engineering literature”
other terms
“constitutional design literature”
“institutional approach”
“new institutionalism”
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
counts some of the biggest names in the political science discipline
including winners of the Johan Skytte Prize in Political Science
13 Apr 2018
"to the scholar who in the view of the Foundation has made the most valuable contribution to political science”
I. Short introduction to the institutional design literature
counts some of the biggest names in the political science discipline
including winners of the Johan Skytte Prize in Political Science
represents the best minds that have studied similar institutional issues that Filipinos now face
(and are the real experts on these issues)
II. Three Cautionary Insights
from the Institutional Design Literature
II.1. First cautionary insight:
No consensus on the superiority
of one system of government to another
there is no consensus on the superiority of the
form of government
or
parliamentary /semi-presidential
presidential
federal
to the
unitary
system of government
to the
or vice versa
While many scholars in the institutional design literature argue for the superiority of a federal to a unitary system
Examples of top political scientists:
Alfred Stepan
13 Apr 2018
While many scholars in the institutional design literature argue for the superiority of a federal to a unitary system
Examples of top political scientists:
Alfred Stepan
Arend Lijphart
While many scholars in the institutional design literature argue for the superiority of a federal to a unitary system
Examples of top political scientists:
Alfred Stepan
Arend Lijphart
Pippa Norris
13 Apr 2018
While many scholars in the institutional design literature argue for the superiority of a federal to a unitary system
Examples of top political scientists:
Alfred Stepan
Arend Lijphart
Pippa Norris
Larry Diamond
Many scholars, also in the same institutional design literature, deny the superiority of a federal to a unitary system.
Examples of top political scientists:
Daniel Treisman
13 Apr 2018
Many scholars, also in the same institutional design literature, deny the superiority of a federal to a unitary system.
Examples of top political scientists:
Daniel Treisman
Jan-Erik Lane and Svante Ersson
Many scholars, also in the same institutional design literature, deny the superiority of a federal to a unitary system.
Examples of top political scientists:
Daniel Treisman
Jan-Erik Lane and Svante Ersson
Jonathan Rodden
13 Apr 2018
Many scholars, also in the same institutional design literature, deny the superiority of a federal to a unitary system.
Examples of top political scientists:
Daniel Treisman
Jan-Erik Lane and Svante Ersson
Jonathan Rodden
Erik Wibbels
These scholars find that there is no meaningful difference in the performancebetween federal and unitary systems on a number of key indicators.
For examples:
1. human development (HDI)
2. economic performance (including public finance)
3. income inequality
4. democratic stability
5. quality of democracy
6. rule of law
7. anti-corruption
8. handling multiethnic conflicts
In fact, for a few scholars, their works show that unitary systems do better
than federal ones in some of these indicators.
13 Apr 2018
a package of institutional featuressystem of government
1. Institutional bundle
federal unitary
distribution of
legislative/executive powers
level and type of decentralization
devil is
in the
details
appointment/budgetary powers of
the president to/over bureaucracydesign of upper house
manner of recruitment
in the national/local
bureaucracy
just a few examples:
mechanisms for intergovern-
mental coordination
just a few examples:
type of constitutional
entrenchment
level and type of devolution
We can organize the counter-arguments of the critics of the federal superiority camp via two intertwined institutional arguments:
whose performance depends on the specific design of these features
system of government 1. Institutional bundle
At the level of institutional bundle, helps explain performance
federal unitary
distribution of
legislative/executive powers
level and type of decentralization
devil is
in the
details design of upper house
manner of recruitment
in the national/local
bureaucracy
just a few examples:
mechanisms for intergovern-
mental coordination
just a few examples:
type of constitutional
entrenchment
level and type of devolution
appointment/budgetary powers of
the president to/over bureaucracy
a package of institutional featureswhose performance depends on the specific design of these features
2. Institutional configurationhow different types of
institutions affect each other
(e.g. how the electoral system affects the form of government)
Critics of the superiority argument give two intertwined reasons:
this means that institutions must not be analyzed independently
from other institutions that may affect their functioning
One of the most important insights of the institutional
design literature
13 Apr 2018
system of government
2. Institutional configuration
federal
electoral system
party system
system of government unitary
party system
electoral system
devil is
in the
details
performance also affected by the design of other institutions
system of government
just one
pair of
examples:
At the level of institutional configuration, helps explain performance
PR
SMD
MM
Multi-Ptwo-P
Regiona-
lizedNon-
Regionalized
Besides institutional factors,
Besides institutional factors, scholars also raise non-institutional design factors
that affect
institutional
performance(institutional
endogeneity)
length of democracy
Examples:
level of economic development
colonial heritage
political culture (non-formal institutions)
political elite composition
geographical location
type of ethnic fragmentation
path dependence
It is this particular combination of institutional and non-institutional design factors that explain the performance of a federal (or unitary) system
13 Apr 2018
II.2. Second cautionary insight:
Reform not Overhaul
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
examples: Shugart and Mainwaring
Stephan Haggard and Robert Kaufman
13 Apr 2018
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
examples: Shugart and Mainwaring
Stephan Haggard and Robert KaufmanFrancis Fukuyama
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
revival of institutional design questions
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
revival of institutional design questions = largely linked with the most recent wave
of democratization where from 1974-1994:
75 countries transited to democracies role of Juan Linz’s 1990 article “The Perils of Presidentialism” including the Philippines in 1986
fundamental institutional choices for
new democracies: most important is the
form of government
13 Apr 2018
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
picked up by Filipino parliamentary advocates by mid-1990s,
when we have already made our choice of form of government in
the 1987 Constitution
fundamental institutional choices for
new democracies: most important is the
form of government
role of Juan Linz’s 1990 article “The Perils of Presidentialism”
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
role of Juan Linz’s 1990 article “The Perils of Presidentialism”
and the difficulty and danger of these choices are captured by the subtitle of
Jon Elster et al.’s book on post-communist transitions in Eastern Europe
these regimes in transition have no option but to make
these constitutional choices
fundamental institutional choices for
new democracies: most important is the
form of government
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
role of Juan Linz’s 1990 article “The Perils of Presidentialism”
and the difficulty and danger of these choices are captured by the subtitle of
Jon Elster et al.’s book on post-communist transitions in Eastern Europe
these regimes in transition have no option but to make
these constitutional choices
fundamental institutional choices for
new democracies: most important is the
form of government
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
role of Juan Linz’s 1990 article “The Perils of Presidentialism”
even for many scholars arguing the superiority of parliamentary
and/or federal, there is no recommendation to dump
existing presidential/unitary systems
fundamental institutional choices for
new democracies: most important is the
form of government
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
role of Juan Linz’s 1990 article “The Perils of Presidentialism”
even for many scholars arguing the superiority of parliamentary
and/or federal, there is no recommendation to dump
existing presidential/unitary systems
fundamental institutional choices for
new democracies: most important is the
form of government
13 Apr 2018
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
even for many scholars arguing the superiority of parliamentary
and/or federal, there is no recommendation to dump
existing presidential/unitary systems
analogy: Sagada vs. Manila
Photo credit: Mr. Angel Juarez
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
even for many scholars arguing the superiority of parliamentary
and/or federal, there is no recommendation to dump
existing presidential/unitary systems
analogy: Sagada vs. Manila
just a scholarly debate
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
1. unnecessary: if there is no superiority,then there is no need for overhaul
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
especially for federalism
where state governments,
constitutions, courts, bureaucracy, etc.
would have to be created
13 Apr 2018
13 Apr 2018
Benefits are uncertain,
but huge costs are definite
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
especially for federalism
where state governments,
constitutions, courts, bureaucracy, etc.
would have to be created
Philippine time frame(depending on which
proposed federal constitution you read)
At least four federal constitutions introduced since 2005
Jose Abueva (Citizens Movement for a Federal Philippines) in 2005
At least four federal constitutions introduced since 2005
Jose Abueva (Citizens Movement for a Federal Philippines) in 2005
Aquilino Pimentel, Jr. et al. (Senate Joint Resolution no. 10) in 2008
13 Apr 2018
At least four federal constitutions introduced since 2005
Jose Abueva (Citizens Movement for a Federal Philippines) in 2005
Aquilino Pimentel, Jr. et al. (Senate Joint Resolution no. 10) in 2008
Eugene De Vera and Aurelio Gonzales, Jr. (Resolution of Both Houses 008) in 2016
At least four federal constitutions introduced since 2005
Jose Abueva (Citizens Movement for a Federal Philippines) in 2005
Aquilino Pimentel, Jr. et al. (Senate Joint Resolution no. 10) in 2008
Eugene De Vera and Aurelio Gonzales, Jr. (Resolution of Both Houses 008) in 2016
Federalism Study Group of the PDP Laban Federalism Institute in August 2017
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
especially for federalism
where state governments,
constitutions, courts, bureaucracy, etc.
would have to be created
Philippine time frame (depending on which
proposed federal constitution you read) is
At least ten years (Abueva)
Not clear but it will take a long time to
execute (Pimentel et al.)
Not clear also but will also take a long time
to execute (De Vera and Gonzales)
At least six-and-a-half years to pass the
organic acts (PDP-Laban)
13 Apr 2018
illustrates howcomplex,
problematic, elusive,
mindboggling,and risky
the institutional design overhaul needed
to effect a transition from a unitary to a
federal system of government
in a democracy
Specific to PDP-Laban’s federalism proposal,
it reveals how forced,
confused, questionable,
quixotic, frightening, contradictory,
counterproductive, and haphazard
the party’s blueprint for the country’s shift to federalism
Its federalism which it calls
“evolutionary federalism” (sec 13)
is neither evolutionary nor federalism
It creates more problems than the current
decentralization setup
On institutional design principles,
it is inferior to the current Article X of the 1987
Constitution
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
andno democratic country has been
crazy enough to make these
overhauls at the same time!
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
andno democratic country has been
crazy enough to make these
overhauls at the same time!
Just when you think it could not get crazier,
“You know, my advice to you is:
maintain a federal system, a
parliament, but be sure to have a
President… You copy the France (sic) system.”
13 Apr 2018
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
andno democratic country has been
crazy enough to make these
overhauls at the same time!
semi-presidentialism
Just when you think it could not get crazier,
dual executive
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
andno democratic country has been
crazy enough to make these
overhauls at the same time!
semi-presidentialism
Just when you think it could not get crazier,
dual executive
very tricky executive veto gates
this overhaul project has become a grocery list of institutions!
only Russia is both semi-presidential and federal ( not a D)�
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
institutional design literature has sobered
from the enthusiasm of the early 1990s on the
power to get institutional design right
and
13 Apr 2018
And this is just about one aspect of the
institutional configuration: electoral system
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
institutional design literature has sobered
from the enthusiasm of the early 1990s on the
power to get institutional design right
and
(this is true even for the institutional design literature on federalism)
13 Apr 2018
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
Philippines’ constitutional overhaul project in 2016-18:
height of intellectual irony
and
(this is true even for the institutional design literature on federalism)
institutional design literature has sobered
from the enthusiasm of the early 1990s on the
power to get institutional design right
hubris?
ignorance of the literature?
and/or
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
and
13 Apr 2018
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
and
“hyperrationality” (Croissant and Merkel)
13 Apr 2018
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
andthe mistaken belief that just because you
change the rules, (i.e., formal rules)
politicians’ behaviors will also change (i.e., informal rules)
“hyperrationality” (Croissant and Merkel)
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
andTaagepera:
“hyperrationality” (Croissant and Merkel)
I call it in my classes:hyperinstitutionalism
(exaggerated belief in institutional design)
13 Apr 2018
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
andTaagepera: “excessive optimism”
in institutional design easily leads to
“excessive disillusionment”
afterwardsMy argument: undermining rather than deepening democracy
hyperrationality (Merkel and Croissant)
I call it in my classes:hyperinstitutionalism
(exaggerated belief in institutional design)
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
2. unbelievable: tasks too institutionally and intellectually complex for lofty goals
andTaagepera: “excessive optimism”
in institutional design easily leads to
“excessive disillusionment”
afterwardsMy argument: undermining rather than deepening democracy
hyperrationality (Merkel and Croissant)
I call it in my classes:hyperinstitutionalism
(exaggerated belief in institutional design)
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
among the reasons why strongly discouraged:
3. Unsafe (highly risky): will be discussed in cautionary insight no. 3
and
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
reforms do not need constitutional revisions
only legislation or constitutional amendments
1. More justifiable
two reform principles from Larry Diamond
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
reforms do not need constitutional revisions
only legislation or constitutional amendments
1. More justifiable
A. reform only in the face of manifest flaws
two reform principles from Larry Diamond
B. reform should correct those flaws as specifically as possible
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
reforms do not need constitutional revisions
only legislation or constitutional amendments
2. Less risky: Messed-up reforms are more reformable
If there are errors in the reforms,
easier to return to the old setup
or to push it further to the new setup through new legislation/amendment
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
13 Apr 2018
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
2. Less risky: Messed-up reforms are more reformable
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction
(example: party-system reforms against turncoatism) or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code)
If there are errors in the reforms, easier to return to the old setup
or to push it further to the new setup through new legislation/amendment involve only legislation
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
involve only legislation
For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite
before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form
or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code)
piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction
(example: party-system reforms against turncoatism)
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction
(example: party-system reforms against turncoatism)
involve only legislation
For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite
before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form
Sartori:
or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code)
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction
(example: party-system reforms against turncoatism)
involve only legislation
For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite
before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form
Sartori: undisciplined political
parties in a presidential democracy
becoming disciplined in a parliamentary shift is
“against all odds”
or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code)
13 Apr 2018
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction
(example: party-system reforms against turncoatism)
involve only legislation
For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite
before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form
Mainwaring and Shugart:
or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code)
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction
(example: party-system reforms against turncoatism)
involve only legislation
For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite
before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form
Mainwaring and Shugart: undisciplined political
parties in a parliamentary shift “could exacerbate
problems of governability and instability” more than
in a presidential democracy
or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code)
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction
(example: party-system reforms against turncoatism)
involve only legislation
For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite
before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form
Mainwaring and Shugart: undisciplined political
parties in a parliamentary shift “could exacerbate
problems of governability and instability” more than
in a presidential democracy
or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code)
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
piecemeal reforms that move to a more parliamentary-like direction
(example: party-system reforms against turncoatism)
involve only legislation
For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite
before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form
Croissant and Merkel:
or a more federal-like direction (exs.: increased regional autonomy or a more robust local govt. code)
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite
before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form
Croissant and Merkel: different time horizons
the consolidation of the new party system
“old, fragmented, clientelistic, and irresponsible parties”
“would not be able to create strong and stable governments”
could be done in a few months takes much longer than changing the constitution
would take years/ decades to happen
For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite
before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form
Croissant and Merkel: different time horizons
the consolidation of the new party system
“old, fragmented, clientelistic, and irresponsible parties”
“would not be able to create strong and stable governments”
could be done in a few months takes much longer than changing the constitution
would take years/ decades to happen
sequencing becomes a key
issue in institutional
design
� would determine
how the new
parliamentary form of government works
� and not the other
way around
13 Apr 2018
“a grand bargain” (quotation marks in the original)
For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite
before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form
Croissant and Merkel: different time horizons
the consolidation of the new party system
“old, fragmented, clientelistic, and irresponsible parties”
“would not be able to create strong and stable governments”
could be done in a few months takes much longer than changing the constitution
would take years/ decades to happen
sequencing becomes a key
issue in institutional
design
� would determine
how the new
parliamentary form of government works
� and not the other
way around
For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite
before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form
Croissant and Merkel: different time horizons
the consolidation of the new party system
“old, fragmented, clientelistic, and irresponsible parties”
“would not be able to create strong and stable governments”
heart bypass operation takes much longer than changing the constitution
walking exercises to build up lung capacity
for operation
sequencing becomes a key
issue in institutional
design
“a grand bargain” (quotation marks in the original)
For scholars, may yet be the most crucial prerequisite
before any talk of a constitutional shift to parliamentary form
Croissant and Merkel: different time horizons
the consolidation of the new party system
“old, fragmented, clientelistic, and irresponsible parties”
“would not be able to create strong and stable governments”
heart bypass operation takes much longer than changing the constitution
walking exercises to build up lung capacity
for operation
sequencing becomes a key
issue in institutional
design
PDP-Laban = do your walking exercises to
build up lung capacityas you are having your
heart bypass operation
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
the recommendation of top scholars for
democratic countries with already functioning
systems or forms of government
2. Less risky: Messed-up reforms are more reformable
If there are errors in the reforms, easier to return to the old setup
or to push it further to the new setup through new legislation/amendment
very different from messed-up constitutional revisions involving
system or form of government
especially for shift to federalism
13 Apr 2018
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
2. Less risky: Messed-up reforms are more reformable
If there are errors in the reforms, easier to return to the old setup
or to push it further to the new setup through new legislation/amendment
very different from messed-up constitutional revisions involving
system or form of government
because of constitutional entrenchment protecting
its status, no federal country negotiated under
democratic conditions has ever returned to unitary
especially for shift to federalism
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
2. Less risky: Messed-up reforms are more reformable
If there are errors in the reforms, easier to return to the old setup
or to push it further to the new setup through new legislation/amendment
very different from messed-up constitutional revisions involving
system or form of government
because of constitutional entrenchment protecting
its status, no federal country negotiated under
democratic conditions has ever returned to unitary
especially for shift to federalism
is to reform rather than
overhaul their systems or forms of
government
2. Less risky: Messed-up reforms are more reformable
If there are errors in the reforms, easier to return to the old setup
or to push it further to the new setup through new legislation/amendment
very different from messed-up constitutional revisions involving
system or form of government
especially for shift to federalism
because of constitutional entrenchment protecting
its status, no federal country negotiated under
democratic conditions has ever returned to unitary
II.3. Third cautionary insight:Institutional design is political design
According to Adam Przeworski et al.:
13 Apr 2018
B
There are no optimal democratic institutions
and even if there were,
According to Adam Przeworski et al.:
B
There are no optimal democratic institutions
and even if there were,
the distributive impact of institutional design means opposing political forces will most likely not choose them
According to Adam Przeworski et al.:
B
There are no optimal democratic institutions
and even if there were,
the distributive impact of institutional design means opposing political forces will most likely not choose them
A
B1
According to Adam Przeworski et al.:
A B
There are no optimal democratic institutions
and even if there were,
the distributive impact of institutional design means opposing political forces will most likely not choose them
B1
B2
B3opposing
political forces
political economy of
institutional design/
constitutional engineering
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
(most important
actors are those who
will write the constitution)
According to Adam Przeworski et al.:
different from the federalism project
before Duterte (1986-early 2016)
political economy of
the federalism
project in the
Philippines under Duterte
only president to support was Arroyo
(in her campaign platform in 2004)
but haphazard support
13 Apr 2018
different from the federalism project
before Duterte (1986-early 2016)
political economy of
the federalism
project in the
Philippines under Duterte
very strong support of the
president
only president to support was Arroyo
only played second fiddle to the
parliamentary project
(in her campaign platform in 2004)
but haphazard support
(prominent in his campaign platform)
different from the federalism project
before Duterte (1986-early 2016)
political economy of
the federalism
project in the
Philippines under Duterte
very strong support of the
president
only president to support was Arroyo
only played second fiddle to the
parliamentary project
clear primacy over the parliamentary/semi-
presidency project
(in her campaign platform in 2004)
but haphazard support
(prominent in his campaign platform)
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
Current preferred mode:
- Philippine President - House
- Senate President- some senators
political economy of
the federalism
project in the
Philippines under Duterte
U(P/SP)
The political economy question
13 Apr 2018
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
Current preferred mode:
- Philippine President - House
- Senate President- some senators
political economy of
the federalism
project in the
Philippines under Duterte
U(P/SP)
The political economy question
13 Apr 2018
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
political economy of
the federalism
project in the
Philippines under Duterte
U(P/SP)
Current preferred mode:
- Philippine President - House
- Senate President- some senators
The political economy question
ARTICLE XVII
AMENDMENTS OR REVISIONS
Section 1. Any amendment to, or revision of, this Constitution may be proposed by:
(1) The Congress, upon a vote of three-fourths of all its Members; or
(2) A constitutional convention.
“Constituent assembly” mode
(Note: term never appears in the Constitution)
ARTICLE XVII
AMENDMENTS OR REVISIONS
Section 1. Any amendment to, or revision of, this Constitution may be proposed by:
(1) The Congress, upon a vote of three-fourths of all its Members; or
(2) A constitutional convention.
voting separately or jointly?
13 Apr 2018
October 10, 1986
13 Apr 2018
13 Apr 2018
13 Apr 2018
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
political economy of
the federalism
project in the
Philippines under Duterte
U(P/SP)
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
political economy of
the federalism
project in the
Philippines under Duterte
U
assuming that the Duterte administration could get
the 3/4ths vote (18/24) in the Senate = impossible
(P/SP)
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
political economy of
the federalism
project in the
Philippines under Duterte
U
assuming that the Duterte administration could get
the 3/4ths vote (18/24) in the Senate = nearly impossible
(P/SP)
13 Apr 2018
Key reason for the opposition of the nationally elected senate is the proposal for its replacement by a regional senate
the most important shared institution of federalism
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
political economy of
the federalism
project in the
Philippines under Duterte
U
assuming that the Duterte administration could get
and (223/297) in the Lower House = sure ball, as of now
the 3/4ths vote (18/24) in the Senate = nearly impossible
(P/SP)
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
U
1. very low level of institutionalization of political parties
Philippine Congress (especially its HoR)
= real minority; 7 members
= PDP-Laban only had 3 out of 297 representatives
= PDP-Laban membership and allies swelled to a supermajority of 260-plus = official minority: 20-plus but also the majority's minority
Just two comments
one of the most crucial indicators:
party switching
current 17th Congress (the one that will become the ConAss):
election result for HoR
post-election party-switching and re-alignment
LP had 116 members
(P/SP)
(must add Makabayan bloc)
(LP down to 28 as of May 2017)
13 Apr 2018
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
U
1. very low level of institutionalization of political parties
Philippine Congress (especially its HoR)
one of the most crucial indicators:
party switching
higher level of payoffs to move legislative agenda
of the executive
pork barrel by any other name
(CDF, PDAF, DAP, Duterte’s pork)
(P/SP)
More unstable political support
for the president, especially when
his popularity goes down
More incoherent lawmaking as more
policy side payments are made with more
players representing particularistic interests
Just two comments
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
U
2. High level of barrier to entry
Philippine Congress (especially its HoR)
one of the most crucial indicators:
political dynasty
(P/SP)
Not aware of any scholarly study yet on the 16th Congress (2013-2016) and the current 17th Congress (2016-2019)
But there are at least two on the House of Representatives of the 15th
Congress (2010-2013)
Just two comments
by Mendoza et al., 2012
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
U
2. High level of barrier to entry
Philippine Congress (especially its HoR)
one of the most crucial indicators:
political dynasty
(P/SP)
HoR of the 15th Congress (2010-2013)
Just two comments
70 percent of members belong to a political dynasty
“with kinship links to at least one legislator in the 12th, 13th, 14th, or 15th Congress, or at least one local government
official elected in 2001, 2004, 2007, or 2010” (Dynasty3 Type)
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
U
2. High level of barrier to entry
Philippine Congress (especially its HoR)
one of the most crucial indicators:
political dynasty
(P/SP)
Not aware of any scholarly study yet on the 16th Congress (2013-2016) and the current 17th Congress (2016-2019)
But there are at least two on the House of Representatives of the 15th
Congress (2010-2013)
Just two comments
by Mendoza et al., 2012
by Rivera, 2011
13 Apr 2018
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
U
2. High level of barrier to entry
Philippine Congress (especially its HoR)
one of the most crucial indicators:
political dynasty
(P/SP)
HoR of the 15th Congress (2010-2013)
Just two comments
“34 out of 77 provinces or 44 percent had the same political family winning the governorship
and at least one congressional district”
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
2. High level of barrier to entry
Philippine Congress (especially its HoR)
one of the most crucial indicators:
political dynasty
(P/SP)Just two comments
U
Self-perpetuating in politics by nature
of clan replication
F How do we reach here?
Constituent Assembly
2. High level of barrier to entry
Philippine Congress (especially its HoR)
one of the most crucial indicators:
political dynasty
(P/SP)Just two comments
Self-perpetuating in politics by nature
of clan replication Prevents party institutionalization
as dynasties act as surrogates of
political parties
Highly clientelistic (patronage-based)
because familial/clan interests take
precedence over any national interests
U
ConAssmembers
who are winners of
the old unitary/
presidential setup
U F(P/SP)
How do we reach here?
13 Apr 2018
How do we reach here?
ConAssmembers
who are winners of
the old unitary/
presidential setup
U F
compromises “with groups that have
benefited from existing institutional
arrangements”
F1
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
overwhelmingly for non-institutionalized
and dynastic interests
(P/SP)
(P/SP1)
supermajorityin Congress
How do we reach here?
ConAssmembers
who are winners of
the old unitary/
presidential setup
U F
F1
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
overwhelmingly for non-institutionalized
and dynastic interests
F2distributive
swing could be
more dramatic
(P/SP)
(P/SP1)
(P/SP2)
supermajorityin Congress
How do we reach here? U F
F1
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
overwhelmingly for non-institutionalized
and dynastic interests
F2
(P/SP)
(P/SP1)
(P/SP2)
because of the sheer
multiplicity of features
involved in changing the
system and form of government
How do we reach here? U F
F1
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
overwhelmingly for non-institutionalized
and dynastic interests
F2
F3
(P/SP)
(P/SP1)
(P/SP2)
(P/SP3)
because of the sheer
multiplicity of features
involved in changing the
system and form of government
How do we reach here? U F
F1
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
F2
F3
(P/SP)
(P/SP3)
“hybrid outcomes
that leave lines of
accountability unclear and
combine the worstof both
worlds”
institutional Frankenstein outcomes
(P/SP1)
(P/SP2)
because of the sheer
multiplicity of features
involved in changing the
system and form of government
How do we reach here? U F
F1
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
F2
F3
(P/SP)
(P/SP3)
ConAssmembers
who are winners of
the old unitary/
presidential setup
institutional endogeneity
(existing vested interests)
among the most important factors:
(P/SP1)
(P/SP2)
what explains institutional
choices?and performance?
13 Apr 2018
How do we reach here? U F
F1
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
F2
F3
(P/SP)
(P/SP3)
ConAssmembers
who are winners of
the old unitary/
presidential setup
(existing vested interests)
among the most important factors:
premium on democratic regime
transitions
assumption of some kind of
displacement of the vested
interests of the old order
(P/SP1)
(P/SP2)
How do we reach here? U F
F1
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
F2
F3
(P/SP)
(P/SP3)
ConAssmembers
who are winners of
the old unitary/
presidential setup
(existing vested interests)
among the most important factors:
Worst-case scenario of
constitution-making for
Przeworski (P/SP1)
(P/SP2)
How do we reach here? U F
F1
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
F2
F3
(P/SP)
(P/SP3)
ConAssmembers
who are winners of
the old unitary/
presidential setup
(existing vested interests)
among the most important factors:
Worst-case scenario of
constitution-making for
Przeworski (P/SP1)
(P/SP2)
How do we reach here? U F
F3
(P/SP)
(P/SP3)
ConAssmembers
who are winners of
the old unitary/
presidential setup
(existing vested interests)
among the most important factors:
Worst-case scenario of
constitution-making for
Przeworski
“When the relation of forces is known and uneven,
the institutions arecustom-made for a particular
person, party or alliance”
Duterte
13 Apr 2018
How do we reach here? U F
F3
(P/SP)
(P/SP3)
ConAssmembers
who are winners of
the old unitary/
presidential setup
(existing vested interests)
among the most important factors:
Worst-case scenario of
constitution-making for
Przeworski
“When the relation of forces is known and uneven,
the institutions arecustom-made for a particular
person, party or alliance”
DutertePDP-Laban
supermajority
13 Apr 2018
How do we reach here? U F
F1
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
F2
F3
(P/SP)
(P/SP3)
ConAssmembers
who are winners of
the old unitary/
presidential setup
(existing vested interests)
among the most important factors:
(P/SP1)
(P/SP2)
Elster:
How do we reach here? U F
F1
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
F2
F3
(P/SP)
(P/SP3)
ConAssmembers
who are winners of
the old unitary/
presidential setup
(existing vested interests)
among the most important factors:
(P/SP1)
(P/SP2)
Elster:Constitutions
“ought to be written by
specially convened
assemblies” “not by bodies
that also serve as
ordinary legislatures”
How do we reach here? U F
F1
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
F2
(P/SP)ConAssmembers
who are winners of
the old unitary/
presidential setup
(existing vested interests)
among the most important factors:
(P/SP1)
(P/SP2)
Elster:Constitutions
“ought to be written by
specially convened
assemblies” “not by bodies
that also serve as
ordinary legislatures”
“to reduce the scope for institutional interest”
How do we reach here? U F
F1
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
F2
(P/SP)ConAssmembers
who are winners of
the old unitary/
presidential setup
(existing vested interests)
among the most important factors:
(P/SP1)
(P/SP2)
Elster:Constitutions
“ought to be written by
specially convened
assemblies” “not by bodies
that also serve as
ordinary legislatures”
“to reduce the scope for institutional interest”
13 Apr 2018
How do we reach here? U F
F1
each institutional
design outcome reflects the
balance of power
F2
F3
(P/SP)
(P/SP3)
ConAssmembers
who are winners of
the old unitary/
presidential setup
(existing vested interests)
among the most important factors:
political economy of
the federalism
project in the
Philippines under Duterte
analogy: same inept driver with brand new vehicle
from Manila to Sagada
(P/SP1)
(P/SP2)
Thank you very much
The Federalism Project of the Duterte Administration:
A Critique using the Institutional Design Literature in Political Science
Kapihan sa SWS13 April 2018
Gene Lacza Pilapil Assistant Professor of Political ScienceUniversity of the Philippines-Diliman