profiting from customer profitability + big data fitzgerald analytics

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Architects of FactBased Decisions™ Profi%ng from Customer Analy%cs in the era of Big Data March 25 th , 2014

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Measuring and managing customer profitability in the big-data era. How to capitalize on the opportunity. In today's era of Big Data and related technology, the benefits of "customer-centricity" are within our reach. Analysis of Big Data sources helps to better understand customer needs, preferences, attitudes, expectations, sentiments, and buying behavior. Yet to achieve this potential, organizations need to understand and apply the classic but essential concepts of customer profitability, customer lifetime value (CLV), and customer value management analytics. Join us for an event on how to approach this challenge. When linked with customer profitability metrics, these insights enable more profitable decisions in product design, sales, marketing, customer care, loyalty management, and risk management. This session will help attendees capitalize on this opportunity. We will cover the classic high-impact basics of measuring and managing customer profitability, customer lifetime value (CLV), as well as how to use new Big Data insights to get more value from these efforts. This tutorial which cover the topic in 5 practical steps: 1. Introduction to Customer Profitability Analytics: What is customer profitability analysis, why is it so valuable, and what are the key concepts and methodologies used to measure customer profitability, customer lifetime value (CLV), and related metrics? 2. High-Impact Use-Cases of Customer Profitability Analytics: What are the key ways customer profitability analytics is used enhance results? We will describe the highest-value ways to use customer profitability metrics to improve business results, with concrete examples in each of the following categories: o Customer Lifetime Value optimization ("CLV") o Customer loyalty and retention o Share of wallet maximization o Marketing ROI o Impact of Customer Service, Customer Experience, and Customer Satisfaction on Profit o Product design, pricing, promotion, and positioning o Allocation of resources (capital, budget, HR, etc) o Risk management 3. How to Calculate Profitability at the Customer Level : We will walk through the algorithms you need to use to turn raw data into customer profitability metrics, and share tips on how to customize them depending on your business. Related applications will also be covered, such as how to use the same algorithms to measure profit per household, salesperson, distributor, or other entity relevant to how your business makes money. 4. Data & Tech Requirements 5. Using Big Data to Maximize ROI on Customer Analytics: What are the top 5 opportunities to use Big Data to increase the benefits achieved through customer profitability analytics and related initiatives? Speakers: Jaime Fitzgerald, Founder and Managing Partner, Fitzgerald Analytics, and Konrad Kopczynscki, Director at Fitzgerald Analytics. Konrad and Jaime have applied customer profitability methodologies to dozens of clients.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Profiting from customer profitability + big data fitzgerald analytics

Architects  of  Fact-­‐Based  Decisions™  

Profi%ng  from  Customer  Analy%cs    in  the  era  of  Big  Data  March  25th,  2014  

Page 2: Profiting from customer profitability + big data fitzgerald analytics

2  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Introduc%on:    Jaime  and  Konrad  

17+ years advising clients in Financial Services, Retail, and Public Sector. Created the Data to Dollars Value Chain™ framework & methodology, used by to serve our clients at Fitzgerald Analytics. Now “open-sourcing” the methodology via: •  The Book •  Online learning resources •  Training seminars on data-monetization •  Customized training + consulting

Specialists  in  the  process  of  turning  Data  into  Results.  

Page 3: Profiting from customer profitability + big data fitzgerald analytics

3  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

The  Data  to  Dollars™  Stack  

Insights  

Analysis  

Data  

Tools,  PlaCorms,  Technology,  People,  and  Processes  

Decisions,  Ac%ons,  and  Results  

Made  be'er  by  the  right  

Created  by  the  right  

Which  depends  on  access  to  the  right  

And  selec7on  of  the  right  

Plan:  

Act:  

Page 4: Profiting from customer profitability + big data fitzgerald analytics

4  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

The  Stack  is  Also  a  Value  Chain…  

Insights  

Analysis  

Data  

Tools,  PlaCorms,  Technology,  People,  and  Processes  

Decisions,  Ac%ons,  and  Results  Plan:  

Act:  

Dollars  

 To    

Data    

Made  be'er  by  the  right  

Created  by  the  right  

Which  depends  on  access  to  the  right  

And  selec7on  of  the  right  

Page 5: Profiting from customer profitability + big data fitzgerald analytics

5  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

§  New  Data  Source  Acquisi5on  

§  Data  Discovery    

§  Data  Quality  

§  Data  Governance  

 Analysis   Insight  

§  Decisions  

§  Ac5ons  

§  Financial  Impact  

§  New  Data  

§  New  Opportuni5es  

The  Data  to  Dollars  Value  Chain™  

3.  Dollars    

2.  Analysis    

1.  Data    

Naviga%on  Tips:    1.   Set  Clear  Goals  

and  translate  into  concrete  plans  

2.   Stay  Agile  (loop  back  oQen)  

3.   Keep  Oriented  (“line  of  sight”  /  “why  am  I  doing  this?)  

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6  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Set  Your  Ul%mate  Goal   “Yes,  that  math  works…”  

“Yep,  those  are  the  two  types  sources  of    

gross  profit”  

“Yep…math  works  here  too…”  

Causal  Models  and  Causal  Clarity™  Causal  Clarity™  is  star@ng  with  our  goal  and  then  figuring  out  what  we  needs  to  be  done  in  order  to  deliberately  cause  the  goal  to  happen.    

  Source:  CFNA  /  Bridgestone-­‐Firestone  Presenta@on  

Service  

Marke7ng  

Compensa7on  

Gross  Profit  

Store    Expenses  

Retail  Store  Profits  

Sales  

Gross  Margin  on  Sales  

Gross  Margin  on  Sales  

Sales  

Tires  

Overhead  

Illustra%ve  Example  

Page 7: Profiting from customer profitability + big data fitzgerald analytics

7  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Table  of  Contents  

1.   Customer  Profitability  Analy%cs  (CPA)  

2.  High  Impact  Use  Cases  

3.  Calcula5ng  CPA  at  the  Customer  Level  

4.  Data  and  Tech  Requirements    

5.  Using  Big  Data  to  Maximize  ROI  on  CPA  

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8  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Seeking  the  Origins  of  Profitability…  

Page 9: Profiting from customer profitability + big data fitzgerald analytics

9  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Customer  Rela%onships  are  the  Source  of  Results  

“There  is  only  one  valid  defini5on  of  a  business  purpose:  to  create  a  customer”  

-­‐  Peter  Drucker,    The  Prac@ce  of  Management,  1954  

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10  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Customer  Profitability  Defined  (aka  “CPA”)  

Your  P&L    Statement  

Deconstructed  into  a  P&L  for  each  of  your  customers  

The  contribu7on  each  customer  makes  to  your  total  profit  or  loss.        In  other  words,  a  “customer-­‐level  P&L  statement”    

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11  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

History  of  Customer  Profitability  Analysis  

§  Prac5ced  since  the  early  1980s.      Banks  were  early  adopters  

§  First  Manha_an  Consul5ng  Group  one  of  several  firms  to    pioneer  the  method  for  clients  

§ Massive  results  unlocked  over  the  years  and  ongoing  

§  Some  notable  mishaps  along  the  way…  

§  S5ll  considered  by  many  to  be  “obscure”  or  “not  possible  here”  …which  is  unfortunate!  

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12  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Customer  Profitability  is  The  Ul%mate  KPI  

“There  is  only  one  valid  defini5on  of  a  business  purpose:    to  create  a  customer”  

(The  Prac5ce  of  Management,  ‘54)  

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13  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Loss  per  Customer  

Example  CPA  Output:  “Decile  Chart”  

Top  (Most  Profitable  10%)  

2nd   3rd   4th   5th   6th   7th   8th   9th   Bo_om  (Least  

Profitable  10%)  

Profitability  Deciles    (each  bar  =  10%  of  customers,  ranked  by  profitability)  

Average  

Best  Customers  Mid-­‐Value  

Losing  Money  

Profi

t  per  Customer  

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14  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

The  “reality  behind  the  averages”  enables  beaer  decisions  Loss  per  Customer  

Top  (Most  Profitable  10%)  

2nd   3rd   4th   5th   6th   7th   8th   9th   Bo_om  (Least  

Profitable  10%)  

Profitability  Deciles    (each  bar  =  10%  of  customers,  ranked  by  profitability)  

Average  

Priori%ze  for  reten%on,  target  to  acquire  more….  

Grow  share  of  wallet   Revisit  costs  to  serve,    pricing,  and  root  causes  

of  unprofitability  

Profi

t  per  Customer  

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15  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Example  of  an  Individual  P&Ls:  Bank  

P&L  Item  (Yearly)   High  Profit  Customer   Low  Profit  Customer  Revenue  Checking  Account   $300   $36  Savings  Account   $100   N/A  Credit  Card   $600   $15  Mortgage   $1,000   N/A  

Cost  Of  Goods  Sold  (Interest  Expense)   $800   $5  Opera%onal  Costs  

Pro-­‐Rated  Customer  Acquisi5on  (Sales  +  Marke5ng  Expense)   $80   $40  Other  Marke5ng   $5   $5  Customer  Service  Offline  /  Online  /  Phone   $5  /  $2  /  $5   $20  /  $2  /  $5  

Statements  Offline  /  Online   $0  /  $1   $30  /  $1  

Other  Opera5ons   $5   $5  Net  Profit   $1,097   ($62)  

Large  Varia7ons  

Illustra%ve  

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16  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Classic  CPA  Output:  “Waterfall  Chart”  

Product  A,    $50  

Product  B,    $40  

Services,  $25   Cost  to  Aquire,  $30  

Cost  to  Serve,  $30  

Overhead,  $20  

Profit,  $35  

$0  

$50  

$100  

Product  A   Product  B   Services   Cost  to  Aquire  

Cost  to  Serve  

Overhead   Profit  

Key  components  of  profit  and  loss  per  customer  $  per  Customer  

16  

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17  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Maximizing  profitability  of  the  full  customer  rela%onship  

  Customer  Life%me  Value  (aka  CLV)  =  the  accumulated  profit  or  loss  from  each  customer  over  the  course  of  that  customer’s  rela5onship  with  you.    Including:    1.  Cost  of  acquiring  the  customer  (genera%ng  first  purchase)  

2.  Revenue  from  all  products  over  %me  3.  Costs  of  goods  and  services  sold  (COGS)  4.  Customer  service  costs  5.  Opera%ng  costs  6.  Cost  of  capital  

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18  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Table  of  Contents  

1.  Customer  Profitability  Analy5cs  (CPA)  

2.   High  Impact  Use  Cases  

3.  Calcula5ng  CPA  at  the  Customer  Level  

4.  Data  and  Tech  Requirements    

5.  Using  Big  Data  to  Maximize  ROI  on  CPA  

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19  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Managing  Customer  Life%me  Value  

Customer  Behavior  

Offers  

Service  

Customer  Experience  

Messaging  

Our  Offerings  +  Ac%ons  

Business  Impact  

Advocacy  

Recep5vity  (to  new  info,  offers,  etc.)  

Revenue    $  Now    $  Future  

Intangibles  Word  of  Mouth  

Advocacy  Referral  

Nega5ve  Word  of  Mouth  

Costs  

Loyalty  Demographics  

Customer  Interac%ons  

Aaributes   Wants  +  Needs  

Customer  Knowledge  

Psychographics  

Profitability  /  History    

Affini5es  

Rela5onships  

Etc.  

Situa5onal    needs  

Situa5onal  Aspira5ons  

Price  Sensi5vity  

Service  Sensi5vity  

Channel  Preferences  

Etc.  

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20  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Elements  of  Maximizing  Customer  Life%me  Value  

Symbol   Elements  

Customer  Acquisi5on  /  Marke5ng  ROI  

Share  of  Wallet  Maximiza5on  

Customer  Loyalty  and  Reten5on  

Product  Design,  Pricing,  Promo5on,  and  Posi5oning.    

Alloca5on  of  Resources  (Capital,  Budget,  HR,  etc..)  

Impact  of  Customer  Service,  Customer  Experience,  and  Customer  Sa5sfac5on  on  Profit  

Risk  Management  

  In  this  sec%on  we  share  a  set  of  case  studies,  each  of  which  involves  the  use  of  customer  profitability  analysis  to  improve  one  or  more  of  the  elements  below  

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21  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Example:  Credit  Cards  –  Taking  Profitable  Risks  

Life%me  profit  per  dollar  of  credit  card  sales  

$-

$0.02

$0.04

$0.06

$0.08

$0.10

1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile

Life

time

Prof

it pe

r Dol

lar o

f Sal

es

More Risk Less Risk Quartiles by Risk Level

The Riskier Half of The Card Company Customers Generate 6 to 9 Cents per Dollar of Sales….

…while the “Safer Half” of The Card Company Customers Produce only 1 to 3 Cents per Dollar of Sales….

CLV  Elements        Customer  Acquisi5on  

       

Product  Design  

     

Risk  Management    

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22  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Example:  High-­‐Value  Customers  of  Apple  

“Apple  Evangelists”    -­‐-­‐  Buy  Mul@ple  Products…and  Upgrade  ORen    -­‐-­‐  Self-­‐sufficient  /  expert  users  –  the  need  less  support  

CLV  Elements        Customer  Acquisi5on  

       

Share  of  Wallet  

       

Customer  Loyalty  

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23  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Example:  Mid-­‐Value  Customers  of  Apple  

“Limited  Rela7onship”    -­‐-­‐  Buy  only  1  or  2  Apple  Products…and  rarely  upgrade    -­‐-­‐  Not  self-­‐sufficient,  need  more  help  from  support  

CLV  Elements          

Share  of  Wallet  

       

Customer  Service  

       

Customer  Loyalty  

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24  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Example:  Nega%ve-­‐Profit  “Customers”  of  Apple  “Resource  Hogs”    -­‐-­‐  Rarely  buy,  if  ever,  and  buy  lowest  margin  products    -­‐-­‐  Consume  dispropor@onate  sales,  service,  and  support          

 resources.          -­‐-­‐  Frequent  warrantee  or  insurance  replacement  claims    

CLV  Elements          

Resource  Alloca5on  

       

Customer  Service  

       

Product  Design  

     

Risk  Management  

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25  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

CLV  Elements      

 Loyalty  

       

Product  Design  

     

Resource  Alloca5on  

       

Risk  Management  

Customer  loyalty:  Delta’s  Frequent  Flier  Program  

  Decision  Implemented:  Tie  Tier  Status  to  Revenue  per  Mile  instead  of  solely  miles  traveled.  

  Key  insight:  Customer’s  were  gaming  the  system  to  gain  lucra5ve  5er  status  

  Behavior  Observed:  A  surprising  %  of  not  profitable  customers  were  earning  elite  status.    

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26  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Delta’s  Loyalty  Program:  Causal  Model  

Revenue  

Revenue  /  Mile  

=  

Miles  Flown  

X  

Before  the  change,  Delta  was  

incen7vizing  miles  flown  

The  new  program  is  incen7vizing  revenue  

1

2

CLV  Elements      

 Loyalty  

       

Product  Design  

     

Resource  Alloca5on  

       

Risk  Management  

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27  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

What  Delta  Must  have  Realized…  

Decile:   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10  %  of  All  Elite  Members   30%   20%   10%   10%   8%   8%   8%   3%   2%   1%  Rev  /  Mile   $10   $8   $5   $4   $4   $4   $2   $1   $1   $1  

Illustra%ve  

CLV  Elements      

 Loyalty  

       

Product  Design  

     

Resource  Alloca5on  

       

Risk  Management  

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28  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Risk  Management:  American  Express  Forgets  to  Bill  

  Decision  Implemented:  discover  and  fix  an  opera5onal  error  that  led  to  some  customers  not  being  charged  their  annual  fee.  

  Key  insight:  Certain  customers  had  not  been  billed  a  yearly  fee  in  YEARS  

  Behavior  Observed:  A  sub-­‐sec5on  of  loyal  customers  appeared  to  be  genera5ng  no  revenue  from  Annual  Fees  

CLV  Elements        

Product  Design  

     

Risk  Management    

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29  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

American  Express  Pla%num:  Illustra%ve  Customer  P&L  

1-­‐year  Elements  of  P&L   Customer  #1   Customer  #2  

Revenue  

Annual  Fees   $500   $0  

Late  Fees   $20   $20  

Interest  Expense   $30   $30  

Other  Fees   $60   $60  

Cost  Of  Goods  Sold  (Interest  Expense)   $50   $50  

Opera%onal  Costs   $150   $250  

This  difference  should  not  exist  for  the  same  product  

CLV  Elements        

Product  Design  

     

Risk  Management    

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30  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Guide  to  Capitalizing  on  CLV  (use  this  to  recap  from  examples)  

If  you  Know  This  About  Your  Customers   You  Can  Benefit  in  These  Ways:  

The  right  risky  customers  end  up  crea5ng  a  huge  amount  of  value  over  their  life5me.    

ID  the  most  important  customers  and  retain  more  value  from  customers  that  on  first  glance  seem  risky.    

Customers  who  only  buy  one  or  two  items  end  up  cos5ng  us  the  most  in  in-­‐person  customer  support  

Create  customer  service  alterna5ves  that  will  migreate  these  customers  to  less  costly  customer  support  channels.  

Frequent  travelers  make  up  the  majority  of  your  best  customers,  but  a  sizable  minority  of  frequent  travels  are  below  average,  in  large  part  because  they  use  other  carriers  most  of  the  5me.    

Poach  travellers  from  other  carriers  

If  certain  customer  of  the  same  product  are  not  genera5ng  fee  revenue.  

You  can  iden5fy  where  there  may  be  an  opera5onal  lapse  where  you  are  leaving  money  on  the  table.    

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31  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Table  of  Contents  

1.  Customer  Profitability  Analy5cs  (CPA)  

2.  High  Impact  Use  Cases  

3.   Calcula%ng  CPA  at  the  Customer  Level  

4.  Data  and  Tech  Requirements    

5.  Using  Big  Data  to  Maximize  ROI  on  CPA  

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32  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Gesng  the  Math  Right  

Key  Drivers  of  Profit  –  Simple  Map  

Gross  margin  

 Expenses  

Customer  Profit  

Non-­‐Capital  Expenses  

Gross  Sales  

COGS  

Cost  of  Capital    

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33  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Gesng  the  Math  Right:  Rela%ve  Difficulty    

The  challenge  increases  as  you  proceed  downward…  

Gross  margin  

 Expenses  

Customer  Profit  

Non-­‐Capital  Expenses  

Gross  Sales  

COGS  

Cost  of  Capital    

Hard

er M

ath

/ To

ughe

r Cho

ices

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34  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

The  Math:    Gross  Margin  

Gross  Sales  =    The  Sum  of  the  Number  of  Sales  of  Each  Product    x  the  Selling  Price  of  Each  Product  

Less  The  Sum  of  the  Number  of  Sales  of  Each  Product    x  the  Cost  of  Each  Product  (to  the  company)      

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35  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Gross  Sales:  Product  Examples  from  Financial  Services  

§  Personal  Banking  •  Checking  

•  Savings  

•  Credit  Card  

•  Mortgage  

§  Brokerage  Account  with  Checking  •  Investments/Trading  

•  Checking  

•  Savings  

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36  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Expenses:  Variable  vs.  Fixed  

Variable  Expenses  

Fixed  Expenses  

§  Expenses  which  vary  from  period  to  period  based  on  the  volume  of  a  unit  

§  Examples:  ACH  Transac5ons,  Statements  Printed,  Receipts  

§  Expenses  which  remain  fixed  despite  fluctua5ng  volumes  

§  Example:  Cost  of  DEVELOPING  a  Web-­‐Based  Banking  Applica5on  (although  the  cost  of  hos5ng  +  support  is  variable)  

Expenses  

Non-­‐Capital  Expenses  

Cost  of  Capital    

Fixed  Expenses  

Variable  Expenses  

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37  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

The  Math:  Alloca%ng  Variable  Expenses  

For  each  expense  line  item,  Customer  Expense  equals    Expense  per  Unit  x  Number  of  Units    Example:    3  Bank  Teller  TXNS  x  $10  per  Teller  Transac%on    

Expenses  

Non-­‐Capital  Expenses  

Cost  of  Capital    

Fixed  Expenses  

Variable  Expenses  

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38  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

The  Math:  Alloca%ng  Fixed  Expenses  

For  each  category  of  fixed  costs,  allocate  based  on  the  factor  that  makes  the  most  sense  given  your  analy%c  purpose.    Common  op%ons:  1)  Per  customer  2)  Per  transac%on  3)  Per  ac%vity  4)  Per  dollar  of  sales  or  Gross  Profit  

 

Expenses  

Non-­‐Capital  Expenses  

Cost  of  Capital    

Fixed  Expenses  

Variable  Expenses  

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39  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

What  Affects  “Cost  to  Serve”?  

Low  Cost-­‐to-­‐Serve  Customers   High  Cost-­‐to-­‐Serve  Customers  

Order  standard  products   Order  custom  products  

High  order  quan55es   Small  order  quan55es  

Predictable  order  arrivals   Unpredictable  order  arrivals  

Standard  delivery   Customized  delivery  

No  changes  in  delivery  requirements   Change  delivery  requirements  

Electronic  processing  (EDI)  (zero  defects)   Manual  processing  

Li_le  to  no  pre-­‐sales  support  (standard  pricing  and  ordering)  

Large  amounts  of  pre-­‐sales  support  (marke5ng,  technical,  and  sales  resources)  

No  post-­‐sales  support   Large  amounts  of  post-­‐sales  support  (installa5on,  training,  warranty,  field  service)  

Replenish  as  produced   Require  company  to  hold  inventory  

Pay  on  5me   Pay  slowly  (high  accounts  receivable)  

Source:  Kaplan  &  Narayanan  with  revisions  by  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  

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40  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Week  of: 31-­‐ Oct 7-­‐ Nov 14-­‐ Nov 21-­‐ Nov 28-­‐ Nov 5-­‐ Dec 12-­‐ Dec 19-­‐ Dec 26-­‐ Dec 2-­‐ J an 9-­‐ J an 16-­‐ J an 23-­‐ J an

Phase

1.4 Define methodological approach (methods, concepts,

technology options)

1.2 Determine potential

segmentation criteria

3.4 Troubleshoot data

Key  Tasks2.3 Develop revenue

and costing algorithms

2.4 Account for cross-unit effects

4.4 Document recommendations for ongoing maintenance and

enhancement

1.1 Gather input via interviews

1.3 Determine data availability

1.5 Plan development of prototype

2.5 Document methodology and data sources

1.  S trategy  &  Planning 2.  Design  Methodology  and  Algorithms 3.  Build  Prototypes 4.  S egment  Analysis

2.1 Understand data sources in detail

2.2 Request and test data extracts

4.3 Identify key insights to drive additional segmentation analysis

4.1 Rank customers by decile

4.2 Initial segmentation analysis

3.1 Program customer profitability algorithms

3.2 Validate and modify where necessary to ensure accuracy

3.3 Finalize documentation of data definitions and profitability

algorithms

Example  Project  Timeline  (Aggressive  Ini%al  Prototype)  

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41  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Table  of  Contents  

1.  Customer  Profitability  Analy5cs  (CPA)  

2.  High  Impact  Use  Cases  

3.  Calcula5ng  CPA  at  the  Customer  Level  

4.   Data  and  Tech  Requirements    

5.  Using  Big  Data  to  Maximize  ROI  on  CPA  

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42  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Data  Requirements:  Input  Data  

Data  Type   Purpose  in  CPA     Crucial  Considera%ons  

Customer  List  +  Aaributes   Basis  of  Analysis.    

Unique  ID  Defini5on  of  Customer  (!)  or  relevant  en55es  (Household?  B2B  Account?  Etc.)  

Sales  Transac%on  Data   Gross  Revenue   Transac5ons  need  to  be  product  specific  

Product  Cost  Data   Gross  Margin  

How  variable  is  cost  for  a  given  product?  What  product  sourcing  decisions  might  we  make?  

Expenses  by  Line  Item   Alloca5ng  Costs   How  to  categorize  costs  

Ac%vity  and  transac%on  volume  data  

To  allocate  costs  of  ac5vi5es  

Where  possible,  ac5vity  data  that  is  customer  specific  is  best  Where  ac5vity  data  is  not  tracked  by  customer  served,  other  categoriza5on  is  useful  (example:  product,  geography,  etc.)  

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43  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Data  You  Must  Create  to  Implement  CPA  

Data  Type   Decisions  

Cost  Alloca%on  Factors  

Granularity  of  ABC  cos%ng    “Anomaly  Management”    Best  way  to  allocate  fixed  costs    

“Proxy  Benchmarks”  

What  missing  data  needs  to  be  es%mated  with  a  proxy,  and  under  what  circumstances?    What  proxy  best  suits  the  purpose      

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44  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Example:  Credit  Card  CPA  Model  

Revenue Side • The Customer Profitability process takes all customer

transaction activity * ( revenue - generating and charge - offs ) and organizes them by customer , by year , and by month

• Key assumption : calculated factor to assess direct mail revenue

Dimensions Customer

Month Year

Measures Customer Statement Balance

Risk Management Data

Dimensions Customer

Month Year

Measures Sales

Fees / Charges Direct Mail Bad Debt

TXN Data

Input Process Output

Dimensions

Customer Month Year

Measures

Customer Profitability Model

1 . Revenue line items *

2 , Expense generating line

items ** 3 . Profit

Expense Side Expense line item assumptions

• The model breaks down all expense line items and attributes them at the customer level

• The model attributes them at the customer level by applying cost factors ( to various customer activities that imply costs

Interest expense assumptions • Cost to private label card companyof its accounts receivables (i.e.

cost of borrowing money customer statement balances)

• Dependent on various interest rate indices

Expense Data

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45  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Data  Management  

  Good:  

§  ETL  Process  feeding  a  superimposed  external  client  structure  (and  for  each  dimension  such  as  product,  etc)  

  Beaer:  

§  Single  client  iden5fier  inside  all  systems  for  straight-­‐through  processing.    Other  standard  reference  tables.  

  Best:  

§  An  ability  to  adapt  to  changes  in  business  structure  with  changes  to  data  management  and  data  quality.    In  short,  companies  who  manage  data  well  have  an  analy5c  advantage.  

 

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46  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Example:  Data  Flow  Data  Used  in  CPA  Analysis  

POS SaleECSDS

HEMSHost ECSDS

Management SystemICD JDANEW marketing

Automation System

Customer Level Metrics

Customer Profitability Data

Prophix

Accounting System

Report Web

Accounting:P&L

Cost AdjustmentCost Master Book

Labor costParts cost

Generic product costNat’l Customer Database

HR database

future

ArcherOLD Marketing

Information System

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47  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Table  of  Contents  

1.  Customer  Profitability  Analy5cs  (CPA)  

2.  High  Impact  Use  Cases  

3.  Calcula5ng  CPA  at  the  Customer  Level  

4.  Data  and  Tech  Requirements    

5.   Using  Big  Data  to  Maximize  ROI  on  CPA  

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48  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Big  Data  +  CLV  Management:  3  Key  Spots  

Customer  Behavior  

Offers  

Service  

Customer  Experience  

Messaging  

Our  Offerings  +  Ac%ons  

Business  Impact  

Advocacy  

Recep5vity  (to  new  info,  offers,  etc.)  

Revenue    $  Now    $  Future  

Intangibles  Word  of  Mouth  

Advocacy  Referral  

Nega5ve  Word  of  Mouth  

Costs  

Loyalty  Demographics  

Customer  Interac%ons  

Aaributes   Wants  +  Needs  

Customer  Knowledge  

Psychographics  

Profitability  /  History    

Affini5es  

Rela5onships  

Etc.  

Situa5onal    needs  

Situa5onal  Aspira5ons  

Price  Sensi5vity  

Service  Sensi5vity  

Channel  Preferences  

Etc.  

1

2

3

Richer  Customer  Knowledge  

Beaer  predic%ons  

Ac%ons  

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49  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Big  Data  +  Customer  Knowledge  

Demographics

Attributes Wants  +  Needs

Customer  Knowledge

Psychographics

Profitability  /  History  

Affinities

Relationships

Etc.

Situational  needs

Situational  Aspirations

Price  Sensitivity

Service  Sensitivity

Channel  Preferences

Etc.

1

Text  Analy%cs:  1)  Call  center  transcripts  2)  Social  Media    (Listening  +  Service)  

Social  Media  1)“Graph  Analysis”  2)  Affinity  signals    Loca%on  data    High-­‐performance  processing!  

Clickstream  Analy%cs  -­‐-­‐  Interests  -­‐-­‐  Response  to  UI  

Examples:  

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50  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Big  Data  +  Customer  Behavior  

Advocacy

Receptivity(to  new  info,  offers,  etc.)

2Text  Analy%cs:  1)  Call  center  transcripts  2)  Social  Media    (Listening  +  Service)  

Social  Media  1)“Graph  Analysis”  2)  Affinity  signals    Loca%on  data    High-­‐performance  processing!  

Clickstream  Analy%cs  -­‐-­‐  Interests  -­‐-­‐  Response  to  UI  

Examples:  

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51  How  to  profit  from  Customer  Analy5cs  in  the  era  of  Big  Data  |  Copyright  Fitzgerald  Analy5cs  2014,  all  rights  reserved  

Big  Data  +  Our  Offerings  and  Ac%ons  

CustomerBehavior

Offers

Service

Customer  Experience

Messaging

Our  Offerings  +  Actions

Advocacy

Receptivity(to  new  info,  offers,  etc.)

Loyalty

Customer  Interactions

2

3

Text  Analy%cs:  1)  Call  center  transcripts  2)  Social  Media    (Listening  +  Service)  

Social  Media  1)“Graph  Analysis”  2)  Affinity  signals    Loca%on  data    High-­‐performance  processing!  

Clickstream  Analy%cs  -­‐-­‐  Interests  -­‐-­‐  Response  to  UI  

Examples: