prognostics for warranty and full services agreements (fsa)
TRANSCRIPT
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Negotiations and Risk management
Sentient Science Funded $25M to by Worlds Largest Operator
Uniquely built with operators – Trusted 3rd Party
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
New Prognostic Solution to Predict Failures• Prognostics vs. Diagnostics • Data Model versus Material Science Model - Compatible• Calculates Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and Recommends
Options to Extend Life. • Simulates “what if” scenarios to optimize performance. • Enables efficient Asset Management.• Reduces the Time and Cost of Physical Design Testing
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
DigtialClone Live Technical Approach
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
What Process does DigitalClone Replace?
• Create a multi-physics model to test the life and performance of a specific component under sensitivity studies
• Build a digital model and then run simulations• Manage by exception by only focusing on changes to predictions• Software
VS.
Prognostics Diagnostics
NO CAPEX / $31,000 in development costs
$3.5M CAPEX / $323,000in development costs
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Extend the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) through Prognostics
What is the Business Problem to Solve?
What Would Could You Do With the Extra Time?
Diagnostics
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
1. Ranking Fleet-wide GBX assets worst to best (“what’s not on your watch list?”)
2. List of all GBX candidates for Up-tower component replacement – critical component(s) list, new lifing predictions post replacement and ROI
3. List of all GBX candidates for de-rating to extend GBX life, calculated power levels and ROI
4. Per asset lifing predictions for any uprated GBX5. Per Asset GBX “as-is” BOM and “to-be” simulated BOM stored in
Maximo/SAP6. 5 year budgeting plan, based on data above, to estimate spend
per site
Business Benefit – More Time
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Sentient Science Family
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Worlds Most Tested Products
Products with the Lowest Cost of Operation
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Are you an Owner…
…with units coming out of warranty or FSA and looking to decide what to do next?
Or are you an OEM or an Owner…
…evaluating an Install Base FSA extension?
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Same Underlying Questions Need Answering…
How do I quantify my Risk?
And then how do I manage Risk?
Prognostics - Puts you in the drivers seat in quantifying & managing risk
Common Contractual Tools for Managing WTG Unplanned Risks
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Unplanned Maint. Cost (labor, material, crane)
Unavailability Costs
>30 day Business Interruption Costs
Pricing term
In & Out [Full]
WarrantyFull coverage, capped at turbine price
Yes, calculated at site level, downside limited
No2-5yrs Capitalized in turbine original priceParts & Labor Parts + Labor, capped at % of
turbine price Not typical
Parts Only Parts only, capped at % of turbine price No
Property & Plant
Insurance
Per event deductible (~$100-250k). Limits coverage on number of capital replacement events
No, unless deemed business interruption
Yes1-2 year fixed price
WAR
RAN
TY
POST
W
ARRA
NT
Y
FSA [LTCSA]Full Coverage - Limited to some multiple of service agreement price.
Yes, calculated at site level, often limited downside
No 5-15yr fixed price
The Primary Gaps FSAs Fill
The risk view depends where you are measuring on the bathtub curve…
Projects “Stress” and “Wear” portion of risk curve
Back to: How Do I Quantify my Future Risk?
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Use Physics based modeling of wear• Gearbox • Main Bearing
Use Past History• Weibulls – failures
over time
Use Current Condition• Borescope• CMS• Visual inspection
Looking in the Rearview Mirror…
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
5%: Blades & Pitch Bearings
60%: Drive-Train
Est. for avg. 1.5MW turbine platform
20% Pitch & Converter Subsystems
15% - All Other Subsystems
Unplanned maintenance costs are seen as 40-60% of total maintenance costs
100% of unplanned cost
+
But does this represent your turbine’s future performance?
Looking Ahead: Prognostics Approaches
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Factors that impact life
Standard Bearing Lifing
(ISO281)
Standard Gear Lifing
(AGMA2001 and ISO6336)
DigitalClone Bearing & Gear
Lifing
Varying Load
Varying Speed
Lubricant Properties
Surface Finish
Component Microgeometry
Material Quality
DigitalClone® Nucleation & Propagation
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Using Prognostics before your FSA / Warranty ends…you were unable to have a solid grasp of failure events and cost
Compare $$/yr cost to FSA Extension Quotes
5yrs 10yrs 15yrs 20yrs
Existing FSA Payments
$40k
$50k
$60k
$20k
FSA Ends
Pric
e/yr
FSA Extension Offer
Difference between Gbx + MB cost and total FSA Cost is large…are you getting a
good deal??
UnR
elia
bilit
y
5yrs 10yrs 15yrs 20yrs
5%
10%
15%
20%FSA End Date25%
Quantify major component (Gbx, Main Bearing) damage risk by Site / Asset
DigitalClone Gearbox
Fatigue damage over time
DigitalClone Main Bearing
Fatigue damage over time
Actual Gbx + MB Failure Cost
Projected Fatigue related Gbx + MB Failures
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Using Prognostics for evaluating an Install Base FSA…you have historical data, but how does that translate to future risk?
Compare your Site or Asset failure history to expected fatigue risk
20202014
10.0%
49.8%
Life
Probability Plot of Gearbox failures over time
DigitalClone model
Similar total failure rate at year 20…
Site Weibull
Different story of how quickly the
failures arise
Gearbox Probability of Failure over time for Site X
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Using Prognostics for evaluating an Install Base FSA
Quantify component supplier specific risks
Bearing Supplier
Hardness (Ra) Range 0 to 4500 um
depth
Microstructure Inclusions
Microstructure Quality
Supplier A 60–58 HRC
Supplier B
60-53 HRC (Design
requirement >58 HRC)
Digi
talC
lone
® S
imul
atio
n
HSS Bearing DigitalClone Comparison
BEST BEST BEST
Stress / Life Curve
Cycles to Damage (L66)
Max
Con
tact
Pre
ssur
e (M
Pa)
Stress – Life Curve
Supplier A
Supplier B
Better LifeBett
er S
tres
s Pe
rfor
man
ce
Outer Race
Inner Race
BEST
Oute
r Rac
e
Inner Race
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
Using prognostics to understand Risk vs Premium $…
NO
Can you predict this?
YES
Can you predict this?
Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)
As an Owner you want to use prognostics…
on units coming out of warranty or FSA to:• Quantify major component risk• Compare risk vs. FSA premium• Ensure FSA contract coverage is adequate
As an OEM or Owner you want to use prognostics…
on units up for possible Install Base FSA to: • Compare historic vs. future major
component risk• Quantify component supplier risk• Ensure FSA contract coverage is adequate