Tab 47

Project Delivery Update by Mike Keever

Division of Project Management May 2019

Phases of Project Development

Capital Outlay Support (COS) COS Closeout Program Planning

PA&ED PID

PS&E (Design) Construction

Right of Way

Programming & Allocation

Allocation

Allocation Need & Priority

Identified

Prog

ram

med

PA&

ED

Com

plet

e

Con

stru

ctio

n C

ompl

ete

Des

ign

Com

plet

e

Ris

k an

d U

ncer

tain

ty

20% Known 80% Unknown

80% Known 20% Unknown

Low

High

Clo

seou

t Com

plet

e

Preliminary Engineering (15¢) Construction (85¢)

Project Cost Risk Management

Supplemental Funding and Greater Than 20% Allocation Requests

95-99% of Projects

Watch List

Caltrans District - Project Change Management

CTC

Caltrans HQ - Project Change Management

3

More Bidders Equals Lower Costs

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of B

idde

rs p

er P

roje

ct

Low Bidder Above or Below Estimate Average Number of Bidders per vs. Number of Bidders Project

9.0 20%

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0 Ave

rage

Per

cent

age

Low

Bid

der w

as A

bove

or

Belo

w E

ngin

eer’s

Est

imat

e

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-60%

Low Bid equals

Average Number of

-70% 0.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Number of Bidders per Project Year

(Projects Bid Opened from July 2004 to December 2017)

4

Data set is 476 projects awarded in the FY 17/18 FY

5

Bidding Environment

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Construction Cost Index ( 2002 through 2019)

Rolling 12 month Quarterly CCI Data

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

6

Bidding Environment Through April 2019

LowBid vs Engineer's Estimate (Monthly Tracking FY 18/19)

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

-5.0%

-10.0%

-15.0%

-20.0%

Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19

7

Cost Estimating Improvement Initiative

Improved Estimating Tools Identification of Best Practices Quantification of Risk Training Business Intelligence Construction Cost Escalation Study

8

Supplemental and “Greater than 20%” Allocations

May 2019 CTC Meeting

Greater than 20% Tab # 48

Supplemental to Complete Construction Tab # 49

Thank You

Division of Project Management May 2019

Bidding Environment

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Construction Cost Index ( 2002 through 2019)

2018 quarter to quarter comparison, shows more drastic changes per quarter

Rolling 12 month comparison to the quarterly CCI

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

11

Supplemental and “Greater than 20%” Allocations

Supplemental to Award Supplemental PAED

Potential Items for June CTC Meeting

Greater than 20%

Supplemental to Re-Advertise

Five-Year Greater Than 120% vs Awarded FYs 13/14 to 17/18

13

Five-Year Number of Greater Than 120% vs Awarded FYs 13/14 - 17/18

14

Five-Year Supplementals to Award vs Awarded FYs 13/14 to 17/18

15

Five-Year Number of Supplementals to Award vs Awarded FYs 13/14 to 17/18

16

Five-Year Supplementals to Complete Construction vs Construction Contracts Completed-FYs 13/14-17/18

17

Five-Year Number of Supplementals to Complete Construction vs Contracts Completed-FYs 13/14-17/18

18

Risk Management

PIDs include Risk Training on Quantification of Risk Watch List

19

Bidding Environment

Construction Cost Index ( 2002 through 2018)

mpering.

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

te

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

2018 quarter to quarter comparison, shows stgrowth in CCI.

eep

Rolling 12 month comparison of 2017 Q3 and 20

Don’t know if you want to have this slide… it is what was presented in January. This shows

18 Q3 shows

the yearly average curve and then the 2018 2002 2014 2016 2018 quarter to quarter to show the spike. I think

that the new slide covers it. I think you can delete this one.

20

Bidding Environment

Low Bid vs. Engineer's Estimate 10%

18/19 data through

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19

Perc

enta

ge o

f Lo

w B

id v

s. En

gine

er's

Estim

ate

October 2018

18/19 data through December 2018

Fiscal Year

Don’t know if you want to have this slide… it -20% is what was presented in January. Could be

used to show “what we were seeing…” then show what happened). Remember this slide is the 12 monthly yearly average… the other slide is a month by month comparison. I vote

21