project management
DESCRIPTION
project managementTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Project Management
![Page 2: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Lecture Outline
A. Project Management Process
B. Project Plan
-PERT Techniques
-CPM
C. Project Network: example 1
D. Project Network: example 2
E. Probabilistic Time Estimates in PERT
F. Probabilistic Network Analysis
G. Probabilistic Network Analysis: example 2
![Page 3: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
A. Project Management Process
Project: unique, one-time operational activity or effort
![Page 4: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
A. Project Management Process (cont.)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
![Page 5: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
A. Project Management Process (cont.)
![Page 6: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
A. Introduction
• The project form of operations is used to produce the unique product, a single unit.
Projects include a wide range of manufacturing and service activities. Large objects such
as ships, passenger airplanes, and missile launchers are manufactured on a project basis
• A general sequence of management decisions required in all projects is planning (A),
Scheduling (B) and control decisions (C)
-A. Project planning establishes the major project objectives, the resources required, the
type of organization used, and the key people who will manage and implement the project
-B. In the scheduling phase the construction of a detailed list of project activities is done,
a time schedule for each activity is established and a time-phased budget of each activity
can be developed
-C. Project control is maintained, activities should be monitored for time, cost, and
performance in accordance with the project plan
![Page 7: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
• Almost all companies and public administrations are better prepared to master
managing the continuous and routine activities than to run special and complex
projects
• Experience demonstrates that discontinuous projects or activities suffer
problems in the preparation and implementation phase, unsatisfactory results being
obtained in periods, costs, quality, and results
• Projects can be efficiently managed with a complete and coherent methodologyvalid for any type of project
• But the technical and management aspects are not enough to reach the success
of projects. The human and behaviour aspects of people are also critical. The
project management that we apply will be successful if we combine the rigour of
project management with a suitable behaviour management
A. Project comprehensive management: introduction
![Page 8: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
B. Project plan: PERT techniques
• The PERT method was created in order to manage the Polaris Missiles Programme. In
this programme more than 3.000 external providers and subcontracted companies
collaborated. In order to facilitate its Management, it was subdivided into five sub-projects:
projectile, guidance system, propulsion system, submarine, and nuclear reactor
•The Special Project Office was responsible for the planning and coordination of the
different parts of the project. With its leadership and with the participation of other
participating companies, the method PERT was formulated. Thanks to this methodology, the
project was reduced from 4 years to 18 months
•After different modifications were introduced, it was arrived at CPM. All of these systems are
very similar and are generally known as PERT systems
Note: PERT = Progress Evaluation & Review Technique
Note: CPM = Critical Path Method
![Page 9: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
B. Project plan: CPM
•The essential technique for using CPM is to construct a model of the project that includes the following:-A list of all activities required to complete the project-The time (duration) that each activity will take to completion, and-The dependencies between the tasks
• Using these values, CPM calculates the longest path of planned activities to the end of the project, and the earliest and latest that each activity can start and finish without making the project longer. This process determines which activities are critical (i.e., on the longest path) and which have total float or slack (i.e., can be delayed without making the project longer). In project management a critical path is the sequence of project network activities which add up to the longest overall duration. This determines the shortest time possible to complete the project. Any delay of an activity on the critical path directly impacts the planned project completion date (there is no float on the critical path).
•These results allow managers to prioritize activities for the effective management of project completion, and to shorten the planned critical path of a project by pruning critical path activities, by "fast tracking" (i.e., performing more activities in parallel), and/or by "crashing the critical path" (i.e., shortening the durations of critical path activities by adding resources).
![Page 10: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Time in months
Activity name Activity time Successor Predecessor
1. Design house and obtain financing 3 2,3 -
2. Lay foundations 2 4,5 1
3. Order and receive material 1 4,5 1
4. Build the house 3 7 2,3
5. Select Paint 1 6 2,3
6. Select Carpet 1 7 5
7. Finish work 1 - 4,6
Project activities
C. Example. Network for House Building Project
![Page 11: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-11
C. Network for House Building Project (1)
1
3
2
2
4
3
3
1 5
1
6
1
7
1Start
Design house
and obtain
financing
Order and receive
materials Select paint
Select carpet
Lay foundations Build house
Finish work
![Page 12: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-12
C. Activity Start Times
1
3
2
2
4
3
3
1 5
1
6
1
7
1Start
Start at 3 monthsStart at 6 months
Start at 5 months
Finish at 9 months
Finish
Finish at 9 months
Finish at 7 monthsFinish at 8 months
![Page 13: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-13
1
3
2
2
4
3
3
1 5
1
6
1
7
1Start
C. Critical Path. Network for the House Building Project
Critical path
Longest path through a network
Minimum project completion time
A: 1-2-4-73 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 9 months
B: 1-2-5-6-73 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 months
C: 1-3-4-73 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 months
D: 1-3-5-6-73 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 months
![Page 14: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-14
C. Activity Scheduling
• Earliest start time (ES)– earliest time an activity can start
– ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors
• Forward pass– starts at beginning of CPM/PERT network to determine
earliest activity times
• Earliest finish time (EF)– earliest time an activity can finish
– earliest start time plus activity time
– EF= ES + t
![Page 15: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-15
C. Activity Scheduling (cont.)
• Latest start time (LS)– Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical
path time
– LS= LF - t
• Latest finish time (LF)– latest time an activity can be completed without delaying
critical path time
– LF = minimum LS of immediate predecessors
• Backward pass– Determines latest activity times by starting at the end of
CPM/PERT network and working forward
![Page 16: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
22
13
31 5
1
43
61
71
0 3
3 5 5 8
8 9
3 45 6
6 70 3
4 56 7
7 8
8 9
3 5 5 8
C. Network for House Building Project (2)Earliest start
Earliest finish
Lateststart
Latestfinish
![Page 17: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-17
* Critical Path
09988*7
178676
167565
08855*4
145343
05533*2
03300*1
Slack SEFLFESLSActivity
C. Activity Slack
![Page 18: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Months
Activity
C. Gantt chart
![Page 19: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Months
Activity
C. Gantt chart, critical path
![Page 20: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-20
C. Node Configuration. Network for the House Building Project
1 0 3
3 0 3
Activity number
Activity duration
Earliest start
Latest start
Earliest finish
Latest finish
![Page 21: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-21
C. Earliest Activity Start and Finish Times
1 0 3
1
2 3 5
2
3 3 4
1 5 5 6
1
4 5 8
3
6 6 7
1
7 8 9
1
Start
Design house
and obtain
financing
Select pain
Lay foundations
Select carpet
Build house
Finish work
Order and receive
materials
![Page 22: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-22
C. Latest Activity Start and Finish Times
1 0 3
1 0 3
2 3 5
2 3 5
3 3 4
1 4 5 5 5 6
1 6 7
4 5 8
3 5 8
6 6 7
1 7 8
7 8 9
1 8 9
Start
Design house
and obtain
financing
Select pain
Lay foundations
Select carpet
Build house
Finish work
Order and receive
materials
![Page 23: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
D. Problem solving (2)
• Suppose a project that is composed of 9 activities. It has been established the sequence of the different activities and the duration of each.
• Obtain the project net, the critical path, draw the Gantt Chart. Obtain and the most optimal costs and resources management.
![Page 24: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
D. Problem solving (2), Project costs
Total project time : 10 months
TotalActivityname
Activitytime Succesor Predeccesor Activity Cost
A 1 B,D,F,G 60
B 2 C A 40
C 3 I B 120
D 2 E A 20
E 4 I D,F 160
F 1 E A 35
G 2 H A 90
H 5 I G 150
I 2 C,E,H 90
TOTAL 9 22 765
![Page 25: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
• we have adopted the CPM approach of assuming that all activity times are known and fixed constants. That is, there is no variability in activity times. However, in practice, it is likely that activity completion times vary depending on various factors
• This means that we cannot ignore the impact of variability in activity times when deciding the schedule for a project. PERT addresses this issue
E. Probabilistic Time Estimates in PERT
![Page 26: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
• In PERT we employ a probability distribution based on three time estimates for each activity, as follows:
a = Optimistic time estimatem = Most likely time estimateb = Pessimistic time estimate
• Assumes that the actual activity times are distributed according the beta probability distribution
E. Probabilistic Time Estimates in PERT
m b
Times estimates that are more likely to exceed the average than to be less than the average
a
Probability of 1 in 100 of < a occuring
Probability of 1 in 100 that the activity time will be of > b occuring
Most realistic estimate of the time required to complete an activity
![Page 27: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
• According to beta distribution the average or expected time of the three time estimates can computed as follows:
E. Probabilistic Time Estimates in PERT
Mean (expected time): t =a + 4m + b
6
Using the expected time the ES, EF, LS and LF can be computed
• To compute the dispersion or variance of activity completion time we use the formula:
Variance: 2 =b - a
6
2
The project completion time can be computed by adding the variance along the critical path
This formula is based on the statistical concept that from one end of the beta distribution to the other is 6 standard deviations (+- standard deviation from the mean). Since (b-a) is 6 standard deviations, the variance is ((b-a)/6)2
![Page 28: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
t =a + 4m + b
6 2 =
b - a6
2
E. Activity Time Estimates in PERT, example for House Building Project
a = Optimistic time estimatem = Most likely time estimateb = Pessimistic time estimate
Time Estimates Mean Time Variance
Activity a m b t б2
1 2 3 5 3 0,25
2 1 2 3 2 0,11
3 1 1 3 1 0,11
4 1 5 7 5 1,00
5 1 1 3 1 0,11
6 1 1 4 2 0,25
7 1 1 3 1 0,11
The variance is higher when thespreadbetween the pessimistic and the optimistic value is higher
![Page 29: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
21,2,3
12,3,5
31,1,3 5
1,1,3
41,5,7
61,1,4
71,1,3
E. Project Network with Probabilistic Time Estimated, example for House Building Project
a m b
a = Optimistic time estimate
m = Most likely time estimate
b = Pessimistic time estimate
![Page 30: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
21,2,3
12,3,5
31,1,3 5
1,1,3
41,5,7
61,2,4
71,1,3
0 3
0 3
3 5 5 10
3 4
10 11
5 66 8
4 5
10 11
5 10
8 107 8
3 5
E. Project Network with Probabilistic Time Estimated, example for House Building Project
Earliest start
Earliest finish
Lateststart
Latestfinish
![Page 31: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
E. Probabilistic Time Estimated, Activity Early, Late Times, and Slack, example for House Building Project
Total Project Variance = б21 +б2
2 +б2
4 +б27 = 0,25 + 0,11 + 1 + 0,11 = 1,47
Project standard deviation = Project variance = 1,47 = 1,21 months
Activity t б2 ES EF LS LF Slack
1 3 0,25 0 3 0 3 0
2 2 0,11 3 5 3 5 0
3 1 0,11 3 4 4 5 1
4 5 1,00 5 10 5 10 0
5 1 0,11 5 6 7 8 2
6 2 0,25 6 8 8 10 2
7 1 0,11 10 11 10 11 0
![Page 32: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-32
E. Probabilistic Time Estimates, Gantt Chart, example for House Building Project
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Months
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Activity
11
![Page 33: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-33
F. Probabilistic Network Analysis
Determine probability that project is
completed within specified time
where
tp = project mean time
= project standard deviation
x = proposed project time
Z = number of standard deviations xis from mean
Z =x - t
![Page 34: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-34
F. Probabilistic Network Analysis
• Variation in activities that are on the critical path can affect the overall project completion time. PERT uses the variance of the critical path activities to help determine the variance of the overall project.
• PERT makes two more assumptions:1. The total project completion times follow a normal probability distribution2. Activity times are statistically independent
• With this assumptions the bell-shaped normal curve can be used to represent project completion dates. • This normal curve implies that there is a 50% chance that the project completiontime will be less than the complexion date and a 50% chance that it will exceed the completion date
![Page 35: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-35
F. Normal Distribution of Project Time
= tp Timex
Z
Probability
![Page 36: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-36
F. Project Example
What is the probability that the project is completed within 14
months? t =11 and 2 = 1.47 months
2 = 1.47 months
= 1.47
= 1.21 months
Z =
=
= 2.48
x - t
14 - 11
1.21
From Table a Z score of 2.48 corresponds to a probability of 0.4934.
Thus P(14) = 0.5000 + 0.4934 = 0.9934 or 99,34%
t = 11 Time (months)x = 14
P(x 14 months)
![Page 37: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9-37
F. Project Example
t = 11 Time (months)x = 9
P(x 9 months)
What is the probability that the project is completed within 9
months?
2 = 1,47 months
= 1.47
= 1,21 months
Z =
=
= -1,65
x - t
9 - 11
1.21
From Table a Z score of -0,76 corresponds to a probability of 0,2764.
Thus P(9) = 0,5000 – 0,4 = 0,049 or 4,9%
![Page 38: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
G. Problem solving (2). Project Network with Probabilistic Time Estimated in PERT
Compute the ES, EF, LS and LF, the variance of each activity, the variance of the project and draw the Gantt Chart. What is the probability that the project is completedWithin 16 months? And within 12 months?
Time Estimates
Activity Succesor Predecessor a m b
A B,D,F,G 1 1 2
B C A 1 2 3
C I B 1 3 5
D E A 2 7 8
E I D, F 3 4 5
F E A 1 1 3
G H A 1 2 4
H I G 3 5 6
I C,E,H 1 2 4
![Page 39: Project Management](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052603/563db800550346aa9a8f9da7/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)