project on developing and implementing an impact-based ... · impacts in many places and limited...

Project on

Developing and Implementing

an Impact-based

Severe Weather Warning System

Project Management Team:

Eugene Poolman, Elizabeth Webster, Ezekiel Sebego, Kevin Rae (SAWS)

Dechlan Pillay, Mark van Staden (NDMC)

Current Warning: Heavy rain of more than 50mm in 24 hours is expected

What is it about?

So??

What does it

mean to me?

History: Public Warning Hazards: (up to 2012)

FCAST-PRE-20130226.001.1 3

HAZARD DEFINITION1 Extremely heat Maximum temperature forecast 40C and above

2 Very cold Maximum temperatures 10C and below and/or Minimum -10C below

3 High discomfort Discomfort Index (D.I.), meeting or exceeding 38C (or 100 F)

4 Heat wave 3 consecutive days with maximum temperature to be more or equal to 5C higher than

the average maximum of the hottest month for the particular station in the FPG region/s

5 Gale force winds

and stronger

Average wind speed of more than 34knots (62 km/h) or gusts in excess of 44knots for

land based regions

6 Fire Danger

Rating

If the fire danger rating is high or extreme according to the NFDRS work instruction

7 Heavy rain 50 mm or more within 24 hours

8 Flash Flood Flash flood as defined by SAFFG work instruction

Warning : Within three hours from time of forecast

Watch : 3 to 6 hours from time of forecast

Advisory: Beyond 6 hours from the time of forecast

9 Snow Sufficient snow to cause significant traffic danger and/or disruptions in mountain passes,

major roads and/or highways and/or populated areas

10 Severe

thunderstorms

Severe Thunderstorm in line with the USA NSSL definition with one or any combination of

the following:

- Hail of greater than 19mm diameter or large amounts of small hail

- Tornadoes (any),

- Wind gusts 50kts or more, in association with a thunderstorm

History: Marine Warnings: (up to 2012)

FCAST-PRE-20130226.001.1 4

HAZARD DEFINITION1 Heavy swell Heavy swell greater than 4m with a period of at least 10s.

2 Very rough seas Total sea between 4m – 6m

3 High seas Total sea in excess of 6m - 9m

4 Very high seas Total sea in excess of 9 to 14m

5 Phenomenal seas Total sea in excess 14m

6 Abnormal waves Total sea greater than 5m with long period south westerly swell dominating.

Tz > 10s (as per NWP model and platform observation) (Zero crossing period)

Tp > 15s (as measured at nearest waverider buoy) (Peak energy period)

7 Gale force winds Average wind speed of Gale Force of 34 – 40 knots

8 Strong gale Average wind speed of Strong Gale Force of 41 – 47 knots

9 Storm strength

winds

Average wind speed of Storm strength of 48 – 55 knots

10 Violent storm

strength winds

Average wind speed of Violent Storm strength of 56 – 63 knots

11 Hurricane strength

winds

Average wind speed of Hurricane strength of 64 knots and more

12 Tropical storm A Tropical storm as named and defined by RSMC La Reunion with wind speeds in

excess of 47knots

13 Tropical cyclone A Tropical cyclone as named and defined by RSMC La Reunion

14 Reduced visibility When the visibility is expected to be less than 5 nm (10 km) (1nm = 1.852km)

Severe Weather Warning Levels (from 2013):

Reduced number of hazards to 7

No Alert

Special

Weather

Advisory

Weather WatchWeather

Warning

Be Aware! Be Prepared! Take Action!

No

hazardous

weather

expected

Early warning

of potential

hazardous

weather

Weather

conditions are

likely to become

hazardous

Hazard is already

occurring or is

imminent

2 to 6 days 1 to 3 days Next 24 hours

Intense large

weather

systems

Extreme heat

Heat Waves

Strong winds

High

discomfort

Heavy rain

Disruptive snow

Gales

High waves

Severe T/S

Flooding

Veldfire

conditions

Heavy rain

Disruptive snow

Gales

High waves

Severe T/S

Flooding

Veldfire conditions

International Developments?

WMO: Disconnect between warning of hydromet events, and the understanding of

their impacts

IMPACT-BASED WARNINGS• UK implemented in 2011• WMO Guidelines (latest version 2015)• Europe, USA, Australia in various versions • Pilot projects by WMO in Myanmar,

Mauritius, Mozambique, Malaysia, etc.

Subsequent SA Disaster Management

Survey and meetings (in 2013)

• Challenge from Disaster Managers:

Clear requirement of matter-of-fact information, i.e

non-scientific and to the point – minimize need for

complex interpretation

The need for improving communication to users to

enable their effective decision making

“Just tell me what is going to happen, when, where

and how serious it is”

Moving from:What the weather will be:

(Meteorological thresholds)

- 35 knot winds

- High seas

What the weather will do:

(Impact Warnings)

- small boats at risk of capsizing

To:

What is Impact-Based forecasting?

Impact-based Severe Weather Warning System

Scenario 1:

23 Feb 2010

- Road breached

- Several sheep drowned

Scenario 2:

8 June 2011

- Hundreds displaced

- Communities threatened

- Severe damaged

Impact-based Severe Weather Warning System

Why Impact-based forecasting in

South Africa?

• Huge variation in vulnerability of communities

across country (from densely populated cities,

vast rural communities, extensive agricultural

areas, varied infrastructure distribution)

• Severe weather conditions leading to serious

impacts in many places and limited impacts

elsewhere

Forecast needs to evolve from what weather will be, to

what weather will do…

Requires a paradigm shift:

• From warnings based on weather thresholds

(50mm in 24hrs)

• To warnings based on variations in vulnerability -

impact levels (minimal, minor, significant, severe)

Scenario 1:

23 Feb 2010

Scenario 2:

8 June 2011

- Road breached

- Several sheep drowned

- Hundreds displaced

- Communities threatened

- Severe damaged

Current Warning: Heavy rain of more than 50mm in 24 hours is expected

We need to change from this to….

Warning:

1. Orange warning for rain with a

medium likelihood of significant impacts

2. Yellow warning for rain with a high

likelihood of minor impacts

1

2

An impact-based Early Warning System

1

2

4 Year Project: Developing an

Impact-Based Severe Weather Warning Service

• Aim: Based on WMO recommendations, to develop, test and implement an Impact-based forecasting and warning service in South Africa, through close collaboration between forecasters and disaster managers

• Associated projects and sponsors:

SAWS and NDMC (Developing Impact-based SWWS)UK Newton Fund WP 4 (High Impact Weather)USAID/NOAA (Advancing IDSS in SA)

Project Timelines

OVERVIEW GANTT CHART: IMPACT-BASED SWWS (June 2017)2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Activities Apr-Sep Oct-Mar Apr-Sep Oct-Mar Apr-Sep Oct-Mar Apr-Sep Oct-Mar

1 Project development

OUTCOME 1: Subjective decision making process

2 Develop Guidelines

3 Prototype test Phase (NFC and NDMC)

4 Summer Pilot Phase (GT) GT KZN,FS, etc

5 Winter Pilot Phase (WC, EC, KZN, including marine)WC, EC

WC,EC,KZN, marine

6 Community level stakeholder workshops (2:City and Rural)Jhb, EC

7 Public information and awareness campaigns

8 Operational implementation (preparation)

OUTCOME 2: Objective decision support system

10 Develop scientific DSS vs 1

11 Develop scientific DSS vs 2

General

12 Wrap up workshop

13 Project conclusion

Decision Making Process Development

• Prototype developed and tested (2016):

– Forecasting process developed and tested in case studies

• Summer Pilot Phase (2016/2017): summer weather (Gauteng Province)

– Focus on heavy rain and severe thunderstorms

– 1-2 Dec 2016: Stakeholder workshop with NDMC, PDCM, MDMC’s in Gauteng

– Forecaster training for NFC forecasters

– 3 Event periods identified for potential adverse weather

– Demonstration warnings issued to disaster management (not yet to public)

Feedback from DMCs very positive and constructive (warnings are understandable)

Risk Matrix

DMS Development continued

• Winter Pilot Phase (2017): Winter rainfall regions (Western and Eastern Cape)

– Same format as summer pilot = focus on rain, wind, snow

– Stakeholder workshop (with WC-PDMC, WC & 2 EC MDMCs) held 3-4 May 2017

– Forecaster Training in CT (5-10 May) and PE (15-18 June)

– Pilot period from June to 30 Sept, through event periods

• Summer Pilot Phase continue (2017/18): In Gauteng, expanded to all summer provinces (KZN, FS, NW, NC, LM, MP)

– Stakeholder workshops and forecaster training latter part of 2017 or early 2018

• Public information and awareness campaign (2018):

– Pilot in 2 distinct communities (informal area in city, and deep rural)

• Development of GIS-based Decision Support System using vulnerability information and NWP products

• Operational implementation upon successful pilot phases

Marine Pilot Phase 2018

• Specific Aim:

– To test impact-based warnings and the co-ordination between relevant stakeholders and SAWS during severe weather, tuning for operationalization

– Focuses on the near-shore (<15nm) and beach area

• Stakeholder Workshop 6-7 March 2018 George:

– Relevant marine representatives

– Disaster managers from District MDMCs, PDMCs, NDMC, SAWS

– Introduce the pilot test phase focussing on disasters related to waves, wind and visibility

– Introduce the concept of Impact-based SWWS

– Develop marine impact table

– Agree on coordination mechanisms during the pilot test phase

• Event test periods

– Test Impact-based warnings to be issued and coordination during these periods with marine stakeholders and NOT yet to the public

– Current operational EWS system is still in place and old style warnings still to be used in parallel

So, how does it work?

• Impact tables helps with high-level distinguishing between less severe and more severe impact levels

• Impact level depends on vulnerability in local area to impacts • Content determined by marine stakeholders input

Minimal Minor Significant Severe

Day to day activities

not affected but

some small scale

impacts occur

Some local

incidents, minor

disruptions,

'business as

usual' for

emergency

responders

Disruption to day to

day routines and

activities, mostly

localised.

Short-term strain

on emergency

responder

organisations

Widespread,

Prolonged

disruption to day to

day routines and

activities

Prolonged strain

on emergency

responders

organisations.

Generic description of different impact levels


• Forecasters identify a region where rainfall could result in adverse impacts

• Based on the Impact tables, the most appropriate impact level is identified for an area

• The expected likelihood of these impacts to occur is determined

• Then the appropriate warning risk level is established

?? July 2018.…..


• Forecasters identify a region where rainfall could result in adverse impacts

• Based on the Impact tables, the most appropriate impact level is identified for an area

• The expected likelihood of these impacts to occur is determined

• Then the appropriate warning risk level is established

• The same is done for areas with higher vulnerability

?? July 2018.…..


• Coordination with disaster management is important for orange and redwarnings

• Important to note the difference in impact and likelihood of the yellow and orange warnings

• These warnings require a different response from disaster management depending on its impactand likelihood levels

?? July 2018.…..

Example of Impact-based warning

Like

liho

od

High 2 6 10

Medium 1 5 9

Low 4 8

Very Low 3 7


Impact

• Impact-based warning system can work in South Africa

• Both forecasters and disaster managers have adapted quickly

to new paradigm of impact levels vs weather thresholds

• Strong support at all stakeholder workshops and in events

• Clear reduction in unnecessary warnings (esp. higher levels)

From 41 (old system) to 28 (new system) for same pilot phase periods

Some warnings issued in previous system (thresholds exceeded) did

not need one now due to local resilience (e.g. gales along the coast)

Coordination between forecasters and disaster managers improve

decision making on

warnings to be issued

• During 2 Pilot phases:

20 warnings issued for

Minor impacts, none for

Severe impacts so far

28

High 7 0 0

Medium 13 6 0

Low 2 0

Very Low 0 0


Number of Warnings issued

LIK

ELIH

OO

D

Total nr of Warnings:

IMPACT

Lessons learnt so far

Lessons learnt so far (2)

• Importance of involving both forecasters and disaster

managers in pilot event tests = dual ownership of warnings

• Effective communication & coordination between forecaster

and disaster manager prior and during a severe weather

event is crucial

Developed at the initial workshops and tuned in pilot test phases

Disaster manager must agree on significant or severe impact levels

Feedback during event – using dedicated WhatsApp group?

• Secondary hazards (e.g. the Knysna fires) can lead to

increased impact levels

• DM reaction to warnings – GT PDMC listed decision making

level and appropriate DM reaction to each of the 10 warnings

• Need for preparation of effective, actionable, communication

to general public in layman’s terminology

RISK

LEVEL

DECISION MAKER/RECIPIENT REQUIRED ACTIONS

1 DMO is the recipient and the

Decision maker

Ensure that relevant DM stakeholders are aware of the event.

2 Ensure that relevant DM stakeholders are aware of the event.

Advise stakeholders on necessary preparedness actions.


Supervisor/ line manager is the

decision maker

Ensure awareness of event to relevant DM stakeholders.

Advise stakeholders on necessary preparedness cations

Check Agree on /revise /relevant response protocols/SOP

4 Ensure awareness of event to relevant DM stakeholders.



Ensure response resources are on standby


Supervisor/line manager supports

decision making and Director is the

decision maker

Ensure awareness of event to relevant DM stakeholders.



Ensure response resources are on standby.

Dispatch /allocate resources /personnel in hotspot areas

6. DMO is the recipient and the

Supervisor/line manager and

Director supports decision making

process and the HOC is the

decision maker

Ensure awareness of event to all DM stakeholders.




Dispatch /allocate resources /personnel in hotspot areas

Relocate communities in hot spot areas

Gauteng Disaster Management Response

Protocol

RISK

LEVEL

DECISION MAKER/RECIPIENT REQUIRED ACTIONS

7. DMO is the recipient and the

Supervisor/line manager supports

decision making and Director is the

decision maker and the HOC is

aware of decisions taken at all times.

HOC is on standby to take over

decision making if the likelihood

increases.





Continuously communicate with SAWS so as to immediately Dispatch

/allocate resources /personnel in all hotspot and other vulnerable areas if the

likelihood increases

Continuously communicate with SAWS so as to immediately Relocate

communities in hot spot areas if likelihood increases


Supervisor/line manager and Director

supports decision making process

and the HOC is the decision maker.

The MM/City manager is made

aware of the decision


Advise stakeholders on urgent necessary preparedness actions.



Dispatch resources /personnel in hotspot areas

Continuously communicate with SAWS so as to immediately add resources

/personnel in all hotspot and other vulnerable areas if the likelihood increases

Continuously communicate with SAWS so as to immediately Relocate

communities in hot spot areas if likelihood increases


Supervisor/line manager and Director


and the HOC is the decision maker

supported by the MM/City manager.

The mayor is made aware




Ensure all response resources are on standby.

Dispatch resources /personnel in hotspot areas


/personnel in all hotspot and other vulnerable areas if the likelihood increases

Relocate communities


Supervisor/line manager, Director


and the HOC takes operational

decisions and MM overall strategic

and financial decisions- Mayor

provides oversight and makes

political decisions.




Dispatch resources /personnel in all areas


/personnel

Relocate communities

Conclusion

• Good progress in the project to implement an Impact-based SWWS in South Africa

Forecasting process developed and tested

Summer pilot phase: Gauteng done summer 2016/17

Winter pilot phase: Western and Eastern Cape in winter 2017

• Collaboration of various stakeholders SAWS, DMCs (national, provincial, local), other specialist partners (universities, relevant sector departments)

• It will change the EWS to into a user oriented risk-based EWS, adapted for South African conditions

We are “learning as we are doing”

Thank You

“One cannot be vulnerable if one is not threatened, and one cannot be

threatened if one is not exposed and vulnerable.

Hazard and vulnerability are mutually conditioning situations and neither can exist on its own” (Cardona 2004)

project on developing and implementing an impact-based ... · impacts in many places and limited...

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