project on global warming

8/6/2019 Project on Global Warming

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PROJECT ON GLOBAL WARMING

INTRODUCTION

Global warming is the current rise in the average temperature of Earth's oceans and atmosphere

and its projected continuation. The scientific consensus is that global warming is occurring and

was initiated by human activities, especially those that increase concentrations ofgreenhouse

gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning of fossil fuels. This finding is

recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries and is not

rejected by any scientific body of national or international standing. During the 20th century,

global surface temperature increased by about 0.74 C (1.33 F) Using computer models of the

climate system based on six greenhouse-gas emission scenarios, the 2007 Fourth Assessment

Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that global surface

temperature is likely to rise 1.1 to 6.4 C (2.0 to 11.5 F) by 2100.

An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and

pattern ofprecipitation, probably including expansion ofsubtropicaldeserts.Warming is

expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of

glaciers,permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent


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occurrence ofextreme weatherevents including heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall

events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural

yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though

the nature of these regional changes is uncertain.]In a 4C world, the limits for human adaptation

are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural

systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon

which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.

The Kyoto Protocol is aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous

anthropogenic interference".[12] As of May 2010, 192 states had ratified the protocol.[13] The only

members of the UNFCCC that were asked to sign the treaty but have not yet ratified it are the

USA and Afghanistan. Proposed responses to global warming include mitigation to reduce

emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove

greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or reflect incoming solar radiation back to space.According to a recent Gallup poll, people in most countries are more likely to attribute global

warming to human activities than to natural causes. The major exception is the U.S., where just

under half the US population (47%) attributes global warming primarily to natural causes despite

overwhelmingscientific opinion to the contrary.[14]

WHAT IS GLOBAL WARMING?

While some would call global warming a theory, others would call it a proven set of facts.

Opinions differ vehemently. Let us consider global warming to be both a premise that the

environment of the world as we know it is slowly, but very surely increasing in overall air and

water temperature, and a promise that if whatever is causing this trend is not interrupted or

challenged life on earth will dynamically be affected.


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The prevailing counter opinion is that all that is presently perceived to be global warming is

simply the result of a normal climactic swing in the direction of increased

temperature. Many proponents of this global warming ideology have definitive social and

financial interests in these claims.

Global warming and climate change are aspects of our environment that cannot be easily or

quickly discounted. Many factions still strongly feel that the changes our Earth is seeing are the

result of a natural climatic adjustment. Regardless of ones perspective the effects of global

warming are a quantifiable set of environmental results that are in addition to any normal

changes in climate. That is why the effects of global warming have catastrophic potential. Global

warming may well be the straw that breaks the camels back. It could turn out to be the

difference between a category three hurricane and a category four. Global warming as caused by

greenhouse gas emissions can lead us to a definite imbalance of nature.

The premise of global warming as an issue of debate is that industrial growth coupled with non-

structured methods we as humans use to sustain ourselves has created a situation where our

planet is getting progressively hotter. We have seemingly negatively effected our environment

by a cycle of harmful processes that now seem to be feeding upon themselves to exponentially

increase the damage to our ecosystem.

CAUSES OF GLOBAL WARMING


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Causes of Global Warming

Let us start our examination of Global warming with a study of its causes. Global warming is an

overall state of existence that is the cumulative effect of hundreds of environmental factors. All

of these join together in both a linear and random model to show global warming as a chain of

events.

Most modern attention to the problem of global warming began with discussion of depletion of

the Earths Ozone layer. Ozone (O3) is a molecular form of Oxygen. The Ozone layer is a

relatively thin strata of these molecules set in the lower portion of the Earths stratosphere.

Depletion of the Earths Ozone layer has resulted in a large increase in Ultra Violet Radiation

reaching the surface of the earth. Does this increase in UV rays equate to global warming? Not

really. In fact most scientific opinion is that depletion of the Ozone layer results in cooling of

both the stratosphere and troposphere. So why mention depletion of the Ozone layer as regards to

global warming? Because it represents a needed balance between harmful radiation being


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allowed to reach the earths surface and our desire to stem the rapid increase in our air and water

temperature. Remember, we are viewing global warming as a chain of events.

What is the most significant cause of global warming?

The primary cause of global warming is Carbon Dioxide emissions. CO2 is being pumped into

our atmosphere at an insane pace; 8 billion tons of CO2 entered the air last year. Of course someof this is due to natural activity such as volcanic eruptions and people breathing. But the Earth is

equipped to easily absorb those into the normal regenerative process. No, the beginning of global

warming was caused by fossil fuels being burned and emitting plenty of CO2.

Currently in the world 40% of all CO2 emissions are caused by power plants. These are burning

coal, natural gas and diesel fuel. Some power plants burn garbage. Some burn methane made

from garbage. And discounting those super green electrical generating plants designed to issue

negligible pollutants, all of our power plants let loose into the atmosphere CO2.

33% of all the CO2 sent forth is the product of cars and trucks. Internal combustion enginesburning fossil fuelsgasoline and diesel spew forth a retching amount of CO2.

3.5% of all CO2 emissions are released from aircraft traveling our friendly skies. Unfortunately,

jets and other aircraft deliver their payload of pollutants directly into the troposphere.

The numbers can be confusing

12% of all CO2 released into the atmosphere is related to buildings. This figure varies from one

source to the next. Some place the percentage of emissions from buildings as high as 33%. What

most of these figures do not address is the actual cause of the CO2 emissions. In newly

constructed buildings, production of materials used in building and energy used during

construction are sited as the cause of carbon dioxide emissions. In existing buildings the CO2

created by the energy upkeep of the building is the root of the emissions quotient. The general

comparison is that buildings consume energy in the way that cars burn fuel. But the pollutants

created in providing power for heating, air-conditioning, lights and other usage in buildings has


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already been factored. Honestly this double billing accounting is more the product of auto

manufacturers looking to point the blame for global warming away from gas guzzling cars.

The point to remember is that 98% of all CO2 emissions are related to energy production and

80% of these emissions become greenhouse gases.

Continuing the chain

Which now mentioned allows us to follow our chain of events leading to global warming into

the next most defined cause Methane gas. Methane is released into the atmosphere from adozen major sources. These include natural and man made emissions. Natural release of Methane

is primarily from wetlands, (including agriculture) termites, the ocean, and hydrates. Non-

organic releases are based from, landfills, livestock, waste treatment, and biomass burning.

(More energy production). Almost all of this is offset by the Earths ability to absorb around

97% of the methane released into the air. But that remaining 3% is a serious problem. The

molecular structure of Methane makes it 20 times as powerful a Greenhouse gas than CO2. So

while there is a great deal less Methane to contend with than CO2, it is still the second largest

link in the global warming events chain.

Not every Greenhouse gas is as obvious a villain as Methane. The next most potent problem issimple H2O water. How can water be a cause of global warming? Our atmosphere contains a set

parameter of water as vapor. This vapor absorbs and radiates heat as does every molecule in the

air. But when the lower atmosphere (troposphere) has excess water vapor that gaseous H2O is a

potent greenhouse

Another of the more commonplace greenhouse gases is Nitrous Oxide. NO2 can make your car

go faster, or make you relax at the dentist. It has quite few beneficial uses. But as a greenhouse


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gas all it manages to accomplish is to be one more ingredient in out atmospheric soup. Cars using

catalytic converters, fertilizer plants, manufacture of nylon, and nitric acid as well as being

produced naturally in our oceans and rain forests, produce Nitrous Oxide.

All of the above plus quite a few other greenhouse gases comprise the foundation of global

warming. As above and in all discussion of global warming they are cumulatively referred to asgreenhouse gases. To understand the importance of these as the start and endpoint of global

warming we must digress into a brief explanation of the greenhouse effect.

The Greenhouse Effect

Anyone who has either spent time in a greenhouse for plants or simply gotten into a car on a hot

summer day has personally experienced the greenhouse effect. Heat enters an enclosed area and

then reflects back and forth building upon itself. While the ambient temperature outside might be

85 degrees Fahrenheit, inside an automobile the temperature easily zooms upward to 130F.

Simply put, the greenhouse effect is what happens when heat is trapped in one way or another

and then increases as more heat radiation is added.

This is fine if you are an orchid or other tropical plant. But living things, including people,

require set parameters of climate. When we discuss the greenhouse effect as regarding global

warming we place the effect into a specific environment. That is the Earths atmosphere. When

referencing the Earth, our entire planet becomes the interior of an automobile in the heat of

summer. The Earth of course does not have a metal roof or a glass dome around it to trap heat

and reflect solar radiation back to its surface. Indeed when drawings depict and descriptions


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explain the greenhouse effect the principle is simplified to imply that this is the case. Actually

the greenhouse effect for the Earth is somewhat different.

When solar radiation passes through out atmosphere the molecules that constitute our air absorb

it. The majority of solar heat is absorbed by our planets surface. Different types of surfaces

absorb or reflect heat in different ways. A white blanket of snow will reflect much more heat

than freshly paved asphalt. Still everything that the suns rays fall upon either absorbs or reflects

heat. In the case of out snowy Polar Regions that heat is reflected back from the planet. In the

case of our cities it is trapped on the surface. From there it radiates outward where living things

attempt to adjust to the relative heat or cold. Our planets original design was for a balance of all

the components. Our atmosphere absorbs enough heat to keep us warm but hopefully not bake

us. The angle of the sun in areas such as the poles creates an environment suited to North and

South Pole inhabitants. The people, creatures and plant life at the Earths equator have

acclimated to their section of the world.

The greenhouse effect occurs planet wide when solar radiation either bounces off of or is

radiated forth from the earth and instead of passing through our atmosphere and outward into

space, is absorbed by all kinds of extra amounts of and extraneous gases and particles. These

gases et al absorb heat and then radiate it outward in all directions, one of those directions, being

the surface of the Earth. From there the process repeats itself until we have a global version of a

car with the windows rolled up parked in the noonday sun.

Global warming as a chain of events

Once again remember we are attempting to define global warming as a chain of events. The first

several of these links is an over abundance of solar radiation absorbing gases and other particles

floating about in our atmosphere.

The next grouping of events concerns what happens when the small percentage of increased heat

on our planets surface and in our air begins to effect long standing conditions.

Currently the measured effect of global warming as caused by the greenhouse effect on the

planet overall is approximately a 1 degree Celsius increase over the last 50 years. This would

seem to mean nothing. One asks, How could one degree more or less effect anyone or

anything. In terms of that anyone, the effect of a one-degree difference in ambient

temperature will probably go unnoticed. Our bodies are designed to adjust to a huge range of

climatic conditions. No one of us will notice that today it is 71 degrees outside and fifty years

ago it would have been 70. The human body will adjust and adapt even if the average

temperature globally were to increase by ten degrees. Chances are we would set off a huge

oblivious migration to more temperate areas. But that little one-degree change manages to set out

of kilter an incredible array of environmental forces.


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Permafrost

While that one-degree of heat made you take off a sweater, segments of the Earth known as

permafrost began a meltdown. Permafrost is a condition whereby sections of the Earths surface

have remained at a temperature below freezing (0 degrees Celsius) for at least two years.

Literally, it means permanently frozen soil. In actuality, most permafrost regions have been

frozen for thousands of years. A large portion of the Arctic is permafrost. During summer

months these areas seem to be thawed as they permit a two to twelve foot layer of soil to grow

vegetation. But beneath that summer season lays a still frozen core. These frozen strata of the

Earth lock away huge amounts of gaseous content with the highest concentrations of gases held

in check by permafrost being Carbon dioxide and Methane gas. That one-degree increase in

overall temperature is allowing millions of underground acres of permafrost to defrost and

release even more greenhouse gas.

Tundra

In a similar vein frozen areas know as Tundra are also experiencing a subtle warming. Tundra

describes the soil above permafrost that is frozen for most of the calendar year but thaws for

allowance of small amounts of vegetation growth. Areas of Tundra throughout the world serve as

sinks for absorption of massive amounts of Carbon. As these areas begin to exist for more

months of the year above freezing they both release their stores of Carbon and cease to function

as greenhouse gas depositories.

The extremist view is that within another half century global warming will simultaneously melt

the arctic tundra releasing billions of tons of harmful greenhouse gases and ignite the worlds

rainforests destroying our planets ability to create oxygen. Such a viewpoint is falsely alarming

and without basis. The real danger of global warming is sufficient without need to exaggerate.


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Polar meltdown

The increase, albeit slight in overall temperature the planet is now in the midst of, is more than

sufficient to cause catastrophic effect. Take for example our next link in the chain of events

feeding the effect of global warming. That is the warming of our polar caps and oceans. An

increase in overall temperature for the troposphere allows that segment of the atmosphere to

absorb more water vapor. Much as we set a dew point for condensation of moisture on theearths surface, the atmosphere has an evaporation point allowing a larger volume off gaseous

H2O to exist. A simple linear logic would allow that a 1 percent increase in overall water

temperature throughout the earths atmosphere might allow a corresponding 1% increase in

airborne vapor. In truth there is a non-linear curve to this dialectic, but the general principle

follows suit and allows for our explanation. A 1% increase in water vapor is a huge increase to

the overall amount of greenhouse emissions. The problem however is not caused by the increase

whether it is 1% or 1000th of one percent. The problem is that each release of an unchecked

amount of greenhouse gas precipitates a further release. So if we add excess water vapor to our

ecosystem it then further heats the atmosphere so as to allow even more water vapor to encroach.Ocean Temperatures and Positive Feedback

Our oceans digest most of the carbon footprint needing to be absorbed into our ecosystem. But, if

we raise the temperature of the oceans by as little as 1/10th of one percent that ability to absorb

and neutralize excess CO2 is compromised.

Currently greenhouse gas emissions from production of energy and internal combustion engines

results in a 36% increase in carbon dioxide over that which the planets normal balance can

support. This results in a subtle increase in temperature that just happens to be enough to melt

some of the Earths permafrost, which then releases even more CO2. The CO2 then slightly

raises the Earths temperature resulting in an endlessly looping progression. This situation and

scenario is known as positive feedback and this is the real danger inherent as global warming.

We can follow our ever-expanding chain of events further to a point where man is more directly

affected.


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Environmental causes

Gaseous emissions are the largest issue as a cause for global warming. But simple environmental

issues still manage to total together and create a factor that is in no way to be discounted as

unimportant.

The greenhouse effect has caused our Polar Ice Caps to reduce in size by 20% since 1979. Thishas resulted in more land and sea area being exposed to absorb heat from the sun and as our

continual cycle suggests create more excess heat, which in turn melts more polar ice.

Not all of global warming is the result of greenhouse gases and the ensuing greenhouse effect.

As the population of the earth has increased mankind has brought civilization to almost every

corner of the globe. Civilization includes buildings, highways, land cleared for agriculture, cities

built where once stood deserts. Almost everything that we build absorbs more heat than its

natural predecessor.

For hundreds of years we have sheared the tops off of mountains and burned down millions of

acres of forest just to look for precious metals. We clear ten thousand year old growth areas just

find hardwoods for lumber. We are still clearing the Brazilian Rain Forests so cattle can be

raised on the grassy plains we create. And the semi-comical side of this is that we have

simultaneously destroyed lush plant life that would have through photosynthesis turned CO2 into

oxygen, so as to grow cattle, which are raised in such abundance that their flatulence (Methane)

is a measurable greenhouse emission.

This is not to suggest that we tear down all of our houses to plant a forest of trees and carve up

the superhighways and replace them with lovely green meadows. What we do need is an

awareness of our situation. We need to realize that every move we make as a result ofindustrialization has a corresponding consequence.

Primary effects of global warming

The effects of global warming are in some ways less definable than the causes. It seems odd that

such huge manifestations of change such as rising sea levels, glacier retreat, and Arctic shrinkage

somehow manage to filter down so that when members of western civilization safely tucked


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Ever hear of the Indian River? Well most of Americas grapefruit is grown there along the

Florida coast and should we follow the expected loss of coastline for all of the Southern US

which is projected at a possible 2 mile inward loss of coastline over the next 75 years. Both the

Indian River and Indian River Grapefruit will no longer exist. 50% of American produce is

grown in our low laying areas. A major effect of global warming is that agricultural productionwill be decreased. Our planet will be unable to grow as much food.

Beach erosion

A major secondary effect of rising sea levels is massive beach erosion. Our Colorado vacationer

will find the endless stretches of sandy beaches he enjoys on his winter vacation have withered

away to a few hundred yards here and there. But a shortened tourist base is hardly a world

catastropheis it? Tourism pumps over 50 Billion dollars a year into Floridas economy. North

Carolina and Louisiana earn 15 billion dollars each through tourism. In fact every US state and

every nation on Earth with mild climate and a sandy shore depends upon financial gain from

tourism to sustain its economy.

Lest we dwell only on financial impact consider that loss of coastal acreage will displace

thousands of species of animal and plant life.

Extreme weather

Perhaps the most commonly conceived notion as to the effects of global warming is that of

cataclysmic weather. In fervor to promote the cause, too often we see graphic depictions of

raging floods, category 12 hurricanes and dozens of tornadoes sweeping the landscape. These

same depictions seem to serve those who accept the threat of global warming and those who

reject the possibility. One agenda hopes to frighten the world into an austere program of self-

denial so as to instantly curb global warming causes. The other faction points out that currently

there are no typhoons sweeping across Kansas so therefore global warming is a but a myth. As

always when dealing with scientific anomalies the truth lies nicely hidden in between.

Category 4 and 5 hurricanes have risen in frequency from 20 to 35% over the last 30 years. Since

the dawn of the industrial revolution, frequency of hurricanes overall has risen by almost 40%


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and the those hurricanes now making landfall deposit almost 10% more rainfall than their pre

1970 counterparts. As an effect of global warming hurricanes are stronger, wetter and more

numerous. Hurricane Fay from 2007 created massive flooding over a dozen states. This increase

in storm activity is directly related to a wider variance between warm and cold ocean waters.

Consider that the measurement of temperature rise in ocean waters is based on an overallaverage. Storms are created by the extremes that create that average.

Global warming produces as byproducts, variance in the jet stream, wind sheer, greater quantity

of cyclones, and drought.

Increased rainfall

If we increase the temperature of the air it is able to absorb more moisture in the form of water

vapor. If we cool the air that vapor becomes liquid and falls to the earth as rain. The greater the

amount of water vapor the atmosphere absorbs the greater the amount of rainfall we will receive

during the normal process of reaching a dew point or other yard stick of precipitation. This

increased rainfall results in drastically increased erosion. Areas such as Colorados Platte River

long noted for the devastation following its hundred-year floods can in no way accommodate that

same volume of water arriving every decade. Erosion is vulnerable tropical areas such as Africa

results in native plant life dying off and a resultant desertification.

Evaporation, by definition is a cooling process. So why then is this increased evaporation not

countering global warming? Because the water vapor that enters the atmosphere counters the

cooling process while acting as a greenhouse gas. It should be pointed out that change in climate

for targeted areas can often result in a plus side modification meaning that adding water to dry

areas usually results in those areas being able to support vegetation.


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Destabilization of local climates

The overall destabilization of local climates is a major effect of global warming. The Arctic is

home to over 4 million people. Canada, Russia, and Alaska are dealing with a tremendous rise in

bacterial growth as permafrost regions wa

Glaciers in the northern hemisphere have decreased in size by 50% over the last 100 years. Thisparticular meltdown has resulted in landslides; flash floods and lake overflow through out the

Andes, Alps, Pyrenees, Himalayas, and Rocky Mountains. These seasonal meltdowns are

followed by seasonal droughts. Global warming creates climate extremes. We may measure the

average but we live with the outcome of the extremes. The slow steady melting of the Himalayas

results in the steady flow of water of the Ganges River. The Ganges is the lifeblood of over 500

million people. To say this plainly, if we melt all of our fresh water too quickly and send it out to

blend with the ocean billions of people, including our friend in Denver, Colorado will go thirsty.

Acidic Oceans

Our Oceans are the Earths largest sink for the absorption of CO2 from our atmosphere. As

excess CO2 is dealt with, the oceans in an effort to balance the ecosystem have become saturated

with CO2. This has resulted in production of mild carbonic acid and is known as ocean

acidification. While this is an extremely slight change in the ph (acid to base) balance of the seas

it does result in damage to corals. Coral reefs are home to the vast majority of undersea life.

Ocean acidification coincides with Oxygen depletion in our oceans. Heavier CO2 molecules are

supplanting oxygen. Less oxygen equals less fish.


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Drought

As temperature swings increase we are left with flooding in some areas and drought in others the

drought creates correct conditions for forest fires. These fires, like our hurricanes, are suddenly

emerging on a much grander scale. The 2009 fires raging through Australia and the 2002 fires in

Florida serve as excellent examples. Massive fires release much more carbon as both particle and

molecule than can readily be absorbed. Once again prevalent anti global warming as reality

belief is that these fires can only be considered a natural effect of the ecosystem and as the

forests are a naturally renewing resource should be discounted as an effect of global warming.

However with global warming defined as a premise of additional stress on our environment we

come to realize that it is not the existence of a naturally made fire but the scale of that event that

matters.

Secondary effects of global warming

All of the above initial effects of global warming set into motion the following more directly

adverse effects. Every human being, animal and plant on planet Earth feels these second tier

effects.


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Decreased crop yields

For a short time it was hoped that a byproduct of global warming would be increased yields of

agriculture. The obvious conclusion was that plant life through photosynthesis would make good

use of the increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and produce a lush abundance of flora.Certainly areas such as Iceland, which due to an overall warmer climate can now support the

growth of crops such as barley, have benefited from global warming. Regions such as Siberia are

now able to produce food. But overall the effect of global Warming on agriculture is decidedly

negative. Floods and droughts do not make suitable growing fields. In Africa, areas that

historically received two rain falls yearly now receive more resulting in increased yields, but

areas receiving one rainfall per annum now receive less. This of course results in a non existent

growing season and a 33% decrease in harvestable crops. While an increase in rainfall may

increase yields for those already able to produce a harvest a decrease in rainfall results in a

complete lack of food for others.Flooding of coastal areas results in coastal growing plains being destroyed. For many poorer

countries these are the only fertile areas accessible to transportation via waterways. Poor

countries like Bangladesh are completely at risk to massive starvation caused by coastal

flooding.

Many Pacific Island nations will be completely eliminated as sea levels rise. It is already planned

to evacuate the peoples of Tuvalu to nearby New Zealand as flood defense in not economically

or agriculturally possible.


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Species Migration and Extinction

People will not be the only living things on the move due to global warming. As regional

ecosystems change many species will be unable to find historical food sources. This will result in

mass migrations to climates hoped to support those species as well as mass extinction of those

animals unable to migrate an /or adapt. Polar bears, emperor penguins, gyrfalcons and snowy

owls are just a few of the species current in peril in the new warmer Arctic and Antarctic regions.

Longer warm seasons result in such basic changes as a Polar bears loss of natural camouflage. Awhite bear on brown earth is easy for a seal to avoid.

Birds and butterflies have shifted the range of their migrations almost 200 kilometers in North

America and Europe. Plant life is unable to shift regions as quickly and as such will die out

unless manually replanted in more conducive settings. When herbivores migrate to find a

genetically compatible climate they face the risk of starvation when their traditional foodstuffs

have not migrated with them. Many species are simply unable to migrate to better climes and as

such will suffer the fate of Australias white possum. Unable to survive in temperatures above 30

degrees Celsius the entire species was destroyed during a surprisingly excessive heat wave

during 2005. Their loss is directly attributed to global warming.Severe winters in British Columbia have always managed to keep in balance the voracious effect

of the Pine Beetle. Warmer temperatures have now allowed the beetles to profligate and destroy

33 million acres of Canadian pines.

Mountain run off of melting snows is expected to result in seasonal flooding followed by

seasonal drought in every mountain range in the world. Mountains cover one fourth of the


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Earths land mass. As upper mountain areas warm it is expected that over heated lower level

animals and plants will simply move up to a higher elevation. But what of life already situated at

the upper threshold? Once they reach the top of the mountain where will they move up to?

The Human Condition

Of course we tend to realize the plight of animals as we can easily see their need to migrate to

better stomping grounds. But, what are the direct effects of increased temperature on

homosapiens?

Disease spreads in an overheated environment. Ever notice that there isnt a lot of malaria in

Buffalo, New York or Moscow, Russia. Cold kills germs. Global warming will extend the

favorable zones for many infectious diseases. Encephalitis, Lyme disease and the

aforementioned malaria will join with other bacteria based carriers of illness to spread

throughout areas previously thought of as safe zones.

Our bodies must work harder to cool off when placed in a higher ambient temperature.Cardiovascular function is directly reduced by even a 1-degree temperature increase.Higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the air we breathe are also directly damaging to

lung tissue and lung capacity.

Record amount of carbon dioxide spewed into the air from energy generation in 2010; 44

percent was from coal, a third from petroleum.


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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy generation in 2010 were the highest in history,

according to the latest estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The total was five

percent higher than the previous record, set in 2008; in 2009 emissions were slightly lower dueto the world recession. The agency's chief economist, Fatih Birol, called the rebound "a serioussetback to our hopes of limiting the global rise in temperature" to a moderate amount.

Emissions from power plants, transportation, manufacturing, heating and other fossil fuel uses

are estimated to have climbed to a record 30.6 Gigatonnes (Gt), said the IEA. Forty percent ofthis total came from the developed industrial nations of the world, but these countries only

accounted for 25 percent of emissions growth compared to 2009. Nations considered to bedeveloping led by China and India saw much stronger increases in emissions as their

economic growth accelerated, the IEA report said. In terms of fuels, 44 percent of the estimatedtotal CO2 emissions in 2010 came from coal, 36 percent from oil, and 20 percent from natural

gas. Land use changes, agriculture and emissions from landfills and forest fires also add to theburden of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere but were not included in the report.

This IEA report indicates the major source for the steadily increasing concentration of CO2 inthe atmosphere as measured by NOAA and Scripps Institute of Oceanography on Mauna Loa in

Hawaii. The level reached beyond a record 390 parts per million (ppm) last year, and climbed tonearly 395 ppm in late May. Scientists have continually stated that the world faces disastrous


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changes from rapid warming if CO2 concentrations exceed 450 ppm -- and many scientists urgea reduction down to 350 ppm.

In addition, the IEA estimated that the fossil fuel power plants whichare already built or being constructed now make up 80 percent ofprojected emissions from the power sector in 2020. The power sector

is the largest source of CO2. These plants are unlikely to bedecommissioned, said the agency, making it very difficult to reduce

emissions in the coming decade. China is estimated to be buildingmore than one new coal power plant weekly, even as it becomes a

world leader in wind and solar energy. In the US, the Sierra Club andother groups and state officials have successfully blocked plans for

more than 150 new coal plants, and more are being challenged even asCongress has decided to take no actions to limit greenhouse gas

output.

"Our latest estimates are another wake-up call," said Dr Birol on the IEA website. "Unless bold

and decisive decisions are made very soon, it will be extremely challenging to succeed inachieving this global goal" of keeping extremely disastrous climate change effects from

happening. Already, with just over a degree of temperature change from added CO2, there hasbeen a measurable increase in sea level rise, the amount of rainfall per storm, the extent of

drought and heatwaves, and loss of glacier and polar ice, and harmful effects on habitats andspecies (see this website and reports from the EPA andNOAA). The rise in world average

temperature by the end of the century projected from our current increasing production ofgreenhouse gases ranges from 4 to 11 degrees F.

For more international information on the IEA report, see the Guardian.


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Chicago's experience with a killer heat wave in 1995 and its actions to get ready for increases in

heat and rainfall brought on by climate change are the subjects of these photographs from mybook Earth Under Fire. Climate scientists and medical leaders warn that more and more urban

areas will cookunder much higher summer temperatures. Changes in rainfall and seasonsalready affect city health and livability. In response, many cities are taking action to both reduce

their greenhouse emissions and to get ready for now-inevitable climate shifts. Chicago installedone of the first large public building green roofs to cool and insulate City Hall; a 20,000- square-

foot garden which includes 100 types of native plants. The city has programs to encourage manymore green roofs, plant trees, control rain deluges, and change the way buildings are constructed.

This and other adaptations to a changing climate are the subject of aNY Times series. Examplesof other technologies and community changes are illustrated here in Solutions.

project on global warming

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