project selection for sustainable energy projects determining the most important factors
TRANSCRIPT
Project selection for sustainable
energy projects
Determining the most important factors
Background
• NEPAD to start sustainable energy projects in Africa
• Projects must be optimally selected as Africa cannot waste resources
• Over a hundred project selection methodologies exist for the selection of R&D projects
Project selection
Methodology and criteria
Selected projects
Input
Process
Output
Proposals
Purpose of PhD study
• Identify most important factors for selection of sustainable energy projects in Africa
• Choosing a project selection methodology is dependent on which factors are important for the projects
• The first part of the study will focus on identifying the factors
• After that a decision making model will be selected
Proposed methodology
Conduct literature surveyWhy is project selection important and required?
What project selection methodologies are used in R&D?What is a sustainable energy base?
Conduct focus group 1What are the most important factors in selecting projects for a
sustainable energy base in Africa?
Conduct focus group 2Will the consolidated factors meet the needs of selectingprojects to ensure a sustainable energy base for Africa?
Conduct survey to validatefactors
Conduct international DelphiWhat are the most important factors in selecting projects for
a sustainable energy base in Africa
Literature survey factors
• Quantitative factors:– Economic measures– Future savings in
capital– Operational and
maintenance costs– Profits– Improvement in
productivity
• Qualitative factors:– Political and senior
management support– Client and public
support– Environmental
impact– Technical and
educational relevance
– Interface to existing projects
– Impact on project portfolio
Possible decision making methodologies
• Comparative approaches – Pair-wise comparison– Analytical hierarchy process– Scoring models
• Strategic planning methods – Cognitive modelling (eg decision tree
diagramming)– Cluster analysis
• Systems approaches
First focus group
Item Description Duration Responsible
1 Purpose, rational and methodology of the study
30 minutes Marie-Louise Barry
2 Identification of most important factors for projects selection
1 hour All
3 Classification of factors 1 hour All
4 Preliminary ranking of factors 30 minutes All
5 Identification of Delphi study participants
30 minutes All
Delphi study
• Consult international experts to ensure that the most important factors have been identified
• Minimum of 15 experts required
Second round focus group
• Present factors identified by Delphi
• Discuss factors
• Update factors
Survey for validation
FactorsConduct focus
group 2
Develop, conduct and analysesurvey
Validatedfactors for project selection
Input
Process
Output
Proposed work plan
ID Task Name Duration Start Finish
1 Proposal 111 days? Mon 8/7/06 Tue 1/23/07
6 Literature survey 500 days Mon 7/3/06 Mon 6/16/08
7 Focus group 1 16 days Wed 1/10/07 Wed 1/31/07
11 Conduct international Dephi 50 days Thu 2/1/07 Wed 4/11/07
15 Focus group 2 14 days? Thu 4/12/07 Tue 5/1/07
20 Survey 170 days Wed 5/2/07 Tue 12/25/07
24 Finalise dissertation 130 days Wed 12/26/07 Tue 6/24/08
30 Conference and journal papers 270 days Wed 1/10/07 Tue 1/22/08
J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M JHalf 2, 2006 Half 1, 2007 Half 2, 2007 Half 1, 2008
Discussion
Sustainable energy literature factors
• African ownership and responsibility
• Regional infrastructure• Regional institutional
capacity• Regional policies and
regulatory frameworks• Capacity building• Partnerships• Size of capital
investment• Skill development • Skills transfer
• Training of locals• Investment by other
parties• Customer base• Global sustainability• Transfer of science and
technology• Economic participation• Development of Africa• Eradicating poverty• Promoting the role of
women in all activities• Impact of the project• Achievability of projects
Delphi study
• Summary of participants