Projecting the DoD Workforce Into the Future

Mr. Ric SylvesterDeputy Director, Defense Procurement &

Acquisition Policy (Acquisition Workforce & Career Management)

September 24, 2003

ACQUISITION WORKFORCE & CAREER MANAGEMENT MISSION

RECRUIT DEVELOP RETAIN TRANSITION

PersonnelManagement

System(Title 5,

Acq Demo,BP, NSPS)

Outreach&

Communication

CareerManagement

System(DAWIA)

Human Capital Strategic PlanningHuman Capital Strategic Planning

USD (AT&L) GOAL: Revitalize the Quality & Morale of the AT&L Workforce

DoD-Wide AT&L Mission: Provide material support to the Warfighter

Right PeopleRight Skills, Right Pay,

Right Place and Right Time

Why We Need It...

DoD Transformation!Transformation is at the heart of this new strategic approach. The Departments leadership recognizes that continuing business as usual within the Department is not a viable option given the new strategic era and the internal and external challenges facing the U.S. military. Without change, the current defense program will only become more expensive to maintain over time, and it will forfeit many of the opportunities available to the United States today. Without transformation, the U.S. military will not be prepared to meet emerging challenges. The Department is committed to undertaking a sustained process of transformation - based on clear goals - and strengthening the spirit of innovation in its people, while remaining prepared to deal with extant threats. *

*Source: Quadrennial Defense Review Report, September 2001

But More Compelling Reasons... Workforce out of shape from effects of budget

cuts, downsizing and outsourcing Organizations have been mostly reactive, lacking strategic

alignment of workforce with future business direction Skill imbalances and increased workload on remaining

employeeslowers moralethe downward spiral effect! It makes good business sense!

Organizations need to become proactive --need to know where to take the budget cuts and downsizing

Can justify resources with strong business cases Workforce is aging -- the bath-tub effect

Baby-Boomers starting to retire & not enough people to fill-in Competition with Private Sector for the quality employees Opportunity to re-shape the workforce!

Human Capital Strategic Planning

Identified as a critical process by DoD and Congressional leaders DoD policy in 02

Now in third year of planning process Key question is what functions/skills do we

need for the future, what do we have, and how do we move from here to there

Need good human capital strategic planning to shape and defend the workforce

Policies and

Practices

Policies and

Practices

GapsGaps

Inventory Projection Model

WorkforceCharacteristics

Job Series and Title 1-3 Years 4-10 Yearsover 10 Years

xxx1-Metalugical Engineerxxx2-Ceramics Engineerxxx3-Electrical Engineer

xxx9-Scientist

All other series aggregatedTotal

Level of Experience

Future Desired

Distribution

Job Series and Title 1-3 Years 4-10 Yearsover 10 Years

xxx1-Metalugical Engineerxxx2-Ceramics Engineerxxx3-Electrical Engineer

xxx9-Scientist

All other series aggregatedTotal

Level of Experience

Current Inventory

Job Series and Title 1-3 Years 4-10 Yearsover 10 Years

xxx1-Metalugical Engineerxxx2-Ceramics Engineerxxx3-Electrical Engineer

xxx9-Scientist

All other series aggregatedTotal

Level of Experience

Future Inventory

EnvironmentEnvironmentCorporate and Functional GuidanceCorporate and

Functional Guidance

CurrentInventory

FutureInventory

Strategic IntentStrategic Intent

Workforce Planning Framework

FY08 AT&L Workforce Manpower by Career Field Data based on FY04 PB-23 Submissions

(Civilian FTE's & Military E/S)

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000

SPRDE

Contracting

Prgm Mgmt

Acq Log

PQM

BCEFM

T&E

IT

FE

Auditing

Purchasing

Other

Ind Prop Mgmt

C iv il ia n F TE's & M ili t a ry E/ S ( F Y 0 8 To t a l- 12 6 , 2 73 )

End FY02 AT&L Workforce Personnel by Career Field (Based on 30 September 2002 DMDC Data)

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 4000

SPRDE

Contracting

Prgm Mgmt

Acq Log

BCEFM

PQM

T&E

IT

Auditing

Purchasing

Other

FE

Ind Prop Mgmt

D M D C P e rs o nne l D a t a( End F Y 0 2 To t a l- 13 2 ,5 9 3 )

Acquisition Workforce & Career Management Current Issues

AcqDemo Workforce

Management Recruitment and

Retention Data Systems

Improvements Streamline Policies Outreach and

Communications Fourth Estate DACM

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

19.5%

3.4%

38.8%

66.9%

Federal Employee RetirementFederal Employee RetirementNearly 70 percent of federal employees are eligible to retire between now and 2011, but the Office of Personnel Management projects actual retirements will be closer to 40 percent.

Percentages are cumulative, based on employees on board as of Oct. 1, 2001

SOURCE: Office of Personnel Management (OPM)

Employees eligible to retire*

Employees projected to retire*

Our Progress to Date...

Completed two cycles of Human Capital Strategic Planning--with focus on Workforce Planning

Submissions from Army, Navy, Air Force, DCAA, DCMA, DLA and MDA

Bottom-line: Components are in early stages of maturity in workforce planning Difficulty in making business cases for policy and practices Difficulty in projecting future desired distribution

Some key lessons learned: Need involvement of the business units Need active executive participation Plan on several years to mature the process

Final Thoughts...

There is no proven method to follow in achieving a robust Human Capital Strategic Planning capability

Its a huge cultural change for public sector, requiring buy-in and participation at every level

It will most likely take years to reach a planning state that yields optimum resultsbut some knowledge about the workforce needs of the future is better than none

Something to ponder...If your organization was levied with another workforce reduction, how would it be applied?Across- the-board cut? ...Or based on some knowledge about what the future workforce should look like?