proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and delivery ... · modified code 3.1 comprehensive...
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TRIALOGUE
Meeting Place for Discussion on
Foreign and Security Policy
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Possible pathways for Iranian nuclear bomb
Pu path
IR-40 heavy-
water reactor
(modification)
U path Transparency
heavy-
water stock
(130 tons)
Spent
nuclear fuel
Reprocessing
Weapons-grade
Pu
LEU (19,75%) - 240 kg
HEU (90%)
Modified code
3.1
Comprehensive
safeguards
agreement
Additional
protocol
Extra
monitoring
provisions
Procurement
channel
# of
centrifuges
(5060)
type of
centrifuges
(IR-1)
LEU (3,67) stock (300 kg)
19,75% enrichment
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Possible pathways for Iranian nuclear bomb
Pu path
IR-40 heavy-
water reactor
(modification)
U path Transparency
heavy-
water stock
(130 tons)
Spent
nuclear fuel
Reprocessing (no)
Weapons-grade
Pu
LEU (19,75%) - 240 kg
HEU (90%)
Modified code
3.1
Comprehensive
safeguards
agreement
Additional
protocol
Extra
monitoring
provisions
Procurement
channel
# of
centrifuges
(5060)
type of
centrifuges
(IR-1)
LEU (3,67) stock (300 kg)
19,75% enrichment (no)
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Current trends regarding Iran
✓ Iran is not rushing to the bomb;
✓ Tehran (for now) seems to prefer to stick to the JCPOA (even if some
parts will be suspended);
✓ It’s critical that Europe comes up with some economic benefits by July
8 (China restarted oil purchases, Russian Rosatom continues building
Bushehr-2);
✓ There is an urgent need to avoid war between US and Iran, which
neither leadership seems to want;
✓ Need to start planning for 2021.
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AMERICA’S INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY:
A MEMO FOR EURASIA
May 28, 2019
Viktor V. Sumsky Director
ASEAN Centre, MGIMO University
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AMERICA’SINDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY:
A MEMO FOR EURASIA
DR. VICTOR SUMSKY
A TRIALOGUE CLUB PRESENTATION
MAY 28, 2019
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AFTER DECADES OF CLAIMING THAT ASIA-PACIFIC IS THE REGION OF THE FUTURE, AMERICA SWITCHES TO PROMOTION OF INDO-PACIFIC.
WHY?
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WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE ASIA-PACIFIC PROJECT?
ITS MAJOR BENEFICIARY IS NOT THE U.S. BUT
CHINA
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IS AMERICA’S INDO-PACIFIC VISION AN EXTENTION OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC ONE?
NO, IT IS NOT.
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THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE NEW PROJECT
• IT’S NOT ABOUT ECONOMY, IT’S ABOUT SECURITY AND STRATEGY
• ITS SCOPE IS NOT REGIONAL BUT GLOBAL
• IT’S NOT ABOUT INTEGRATION, IT’S ABOUT DESINTEGRATION
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HOW DO WE KNOW IT?• RESETTING OF QUAD, WITH NAVAL
ISSUES AS TOP PRIORITY
• NEW VERSIONS OF NSS & NDS
• NO TO MULTILATERALISM, YES TO SANCTIONS AND TRADE WARS
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THE ANTI-CHINESE (AND, BY IMPLICATION, THE ANTI-ASIAN) ASPECTS OF THE INDO-PACIFIC VISION ARE OBVIOUS.
BUT THERE IS SOMETHING MORE
THERE…
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NAVAL STRATEGIES ARE ULTIMATELY PURSUING CONTINENTAL OBJECTIVES.
BEYOND THE INDO-PACIFIC MARITIME SPACE AND COASTAL
RIM LIES THE LANDMASS OF EURASIA – WITH RUSSIA AS ITS
CORE.
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IN TERMS OF U.S.-STYLE GEOPOLITICS, HE WHO CONTROLS EURASIA CONTROLS THE WORLD.
AFTER 1991 AMERICAN ELITES CONVINCED THEMSELVES THAT
THEIR EURASIAN PROBLEM IS SOLVED ONCE AND FOR ALL.
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RUSSIA’S RESURGENCE –ALONG WITH THE RISE OF EURASIAN THEMES IN ITS FOREIGN POLICY AND CULTURAL DISCOURCE –
IS TERRIBLE NEWS TO AMERICAN STRATEGISTS.
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IDENTIFICATION OF RUSSIA AND CHINA IN THE NEWEST VERSIONS OF NSS AND NDSAS AMERICA’S MAJOR 21ST CENTURY ENEMIES
SAYS IT ALL.
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IT IS A DECLARATION OF A NEW COLD WAR ON THOSE WHO SEEK A MULTIPOLAR WORLD THROUGH SUCH ALTERNATIVE GLOBAL INITIATIVES AS BRI AND GREATER EURASIA.
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WHAT THE U.S.INITIATES NOW ACROSS THE INDO-PACIFIC AND BEYOND IS SO FAR REACHING, DESTRUCTIVE AND DANGEROUS, THAT
A COALITION AND STRATEGY TO ‘CONTAIN THE CONTAINER’ BECOMES THE ORDER OF THE DAY.
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THIS PRESCRIPTION MAY NOT SOUND TOO REALISTIC, BUT UNLESS IT IS FULFILLED
THE PROSPECT OF A MULTIPOLAR WORLD MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.
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TO ME,THE CONSEQUENCES WOULD LOOK UNACCEPTABLE –
NOT JUST FOR RUSSIA AND CHINA BUT THE
WORLD.
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THANK YOU!
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TRIALOGUE
Meeting Place for Discussion on
Foreign and Security Policy