The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 1

SAN DIEGO CITIZENS’

Quickway ProposalFOR A FAST, FREQUENT,

CONVENIENT, WORLD-CLASS TRANSIT SYSTEM

PART

9Results:Costs & Benefits

SEPTEMBER 2014

9PART

©2014 BY THE MISSION GROUP, SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 2

How many people would ride transit if the Quickway

Proposal were fairly implemented?

The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 3

We can’t be sure, because we didn’t have access to

projected data for 2050, when the County will add well over one million people, many of

whom will live in “transit focus areas.”

However, we did have access to data for the year 2006…

The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 4

Projected Ridership (2006 Data)

Commuter Rail (Coaster) 4,150 1%Light Rail (SD Trolley) 78,000 10%Light Rail (Sprinter) 16,600 2%BRT (Core Routes) 180,000 23%BRT (MetroXpress) 286,000 36%Local Bus (MTS & NCTD) 128,000 16%Streetcar 98,000 12%Total “2006” Projected Ridership 790,000 100% 2008 Actual Transit Ridership 345,000 Gain in Ridership 445,000 (130%) .Likely 2050 Ridership > 1,000,000

Service WeekdayRidership

% of DailyTrips

The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 5

2006 Data—Projected Ridership Flows 2006 Data—Projected Ridership Flows

2005 Trolley Flow: 23,000

Many Quickway segments will carry more riders—in some places, more than 3x

more—than the busiest segment of the existing Trolley currently move.

Many Quickway segments will carry more riders—in some places, more than 3x

more—than the busiest segment of the existing Trolley currently move.

The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 6

2006 Data—Projected Ridership Flows 2006 Data—Projected Ridership Flows Again, ridership projections were made using San Diego’s 2006 population and land use.

As San Diego grows and more people live by transit, projected ridership should be expected to increase significantly.

Even so, ridership flows on the North/Central component of the Proposal are equal to or better than existing Trolley lines.

The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 7

Why would so many new people ride transit with the

Quickway Proposal?

The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 8

Faster (shorter) travel times

Fewer transfers

Less waiting

Better station/stop location

Greater reliability

Compared to our region’s current transit plans, the Proposal offers:

The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 9

Just what would it cost to build?

The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 10

% of Total Plan Guideway Length

10% 10%

19%21%

22%

12%

3%2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Bridge Elevated At Grade(New)

At Grade(Existing)

Cut &Open

Cut &Cover

BoredTunnel

SurfaceRail

Total Miles: 171

The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 11

SANDAG RTP Capital Costs

Mode Millions

BRT 1,028$

Heavy Rail 2,617$

Light Rail 14,416$

Rapid Bus 997$

Streetcar 67$

Total 19,125$

Our region’s 2050 Regional Transportation Plan anticipates spending over $19 billion just for public transit capital projects.

The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 12

Quickway Proposal Capital Costs

Depending on how you slice and dice it, the Quickway Proposal may save the region up to $5 billion in direct capital costs, and may make some road projects unnecessary, saving further dollars.

FAST Plan 13,872,950,075$

RTP 2050 19,125,000,000$

FAST Plan Savings 5,252,049,925$

Cost Difference 27%

Capital Cost Comparison

*

*The Proposal also includes approximately $1 billion in road projects which are not included in this comparison since they would not be funded from the transit portion of the RTP.

Quickway Proposal

Proposal Savings

The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 13

But could we afford to operate all those new

services?

The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 14

Comparative Operating Subsidy

*Depending on cost model used. All models only assume ridership based on 2006 tables for the Proposal.

SANDAG RTP $20 Billion

Quickway Proposal: $11-14 Billion*

Cost Savings to the Region: $6-9 Billion(30-45%)

Through 2050

We understand the difficulty in projecting long term operating costs and passenger revenue. Our modeling does indicate, though, that a

faster transit system can save the region billions.

The Quickway Proposal, pt. 9: Results© 2014 by The Mission Group 15

CONCLUSION:The Quickway Proposal, as a strategic approach

to creating a better-integrated transit network, can:

Reach into more places

Save people more travel time

Better support “smart growth” areas

Attract many more riders

Better improve automotive traffic and

Cost significantly less to build and operate

than our current transit plans.