public attitudes in georgia results of a june 2016 …...laura thornton - ndi georgia davit...
TRANSCRIPT
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Laura Thornton - NDI GeorgiaDavit Sichinava – CRRC Georgia
Public attitudes in GeorgiaResults of a June 2016 survey carried out for
NDI by CRRC Georgia
This research is funded by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida)
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Why We Conduct Polls?Foster the development of more responsive policies and
governance;
Help stakeholders diagnose and address issues of public concern;
leaders from across the political spectrum have reported that the polls are important to their
work and encourage continued polling;
Inclusive process: the polling instrument was developed in consultation with parties, government, and civil society leaders;
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Information about the poll
Fieldwork dates: June 8 – July 6, 2016
4,113 completed interviews
A nationally representative sample including oversampled areas of the Capital, Urban, Rural and minority settlements
The average margin of error is +/- 2,1%
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Methodology
Sample design
NDI and CRRC use a complex survey design:
Stratification – dividing population in relatively homogenous sub-groups
Clustering – randomly selecting small geographic areas for each sub-group (stratum)
Households are selected via random route sampling
Respondents are selected using a Kish table
Randomly selected households and individuals are not substituted
All interviews were conducted face-to-face, in Georgian, Armenian and Azeri.
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Election Process
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Making Electoral Choice
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According to Georgians their votes hinge on a number of issues,
including first and foremost, parties’ economic policies (41%)
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Future Elections&
Party Support
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Likely abstainers are the most
dominant among young people
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Undecided voters are predominantly
young
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Half of likely voters are still
undecided
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31% of undecided voters think that GD will win
6% of undecided voters think that UNM will win
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Unpredictable election results: Georgians overwhelmingly want to vote but have not yet made up their mind
Individual party ratings are so low that they cannot be taken as a guide to the outcome of future elections
The numbers seen in the final election will look considerably different than the numbers presented in this poll as the results will depend on how undecided ultimately cast their ballots