Report No. 5241-STV

St. Vincent and The GrenadinesEconomic Situation and SelectedDevelopment Issues

October 5, 1984

Latin Amerca and the Caribbean Regional Office

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not othenvisebe disclosedl without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUITliALENTS

Currency Unit: East Caribbean Dollar

Since its creation in 1965, the East Caribbean dollar was tied to sterlingat the rate E 1.00 = EC$4.8. In July 1976 the link with sterling wasbroken and the East Caribbean dollar was aligned with the US dollar at therate US$1.00 = ECS2.70.

Since July 1976:

ECS1.00 = US$0.370 orUS$1.00 = EC$2.7U0

ABBREVIATIONS

AIA Arrowroot Industry AssociationBGA Banana Growers' AssociationBOP Balance of PaymentsCARICAD Caribbean Centre for Development AssociationCAKICOM Caribbean CommunityCDB Caribbean Deve'opment bankCIDA Canadian International Development AgencyCWSA Central 'dater and Sewerage AuthorityDEVCO Developmernt Corporation.Ec KEuropean Economic CommunityGDP Gross Domestic ProductGNP Gross National ProductNCB National Commercial BankNFS Non-factor ServicesNPF National Provident FundQECS Urganizacion of Eastern Caribbean StatesPSIP Public Sector Investment ProgramSIL Sugar Industry LimitedSV1C St. Vincent Marketing CorporationUSAID United States Agency for International DevelopmentVINLEC St. Vincent Electricity Services Limited

Fiscal Year

July I to June 30

FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY

TITLE : St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Economic Situation and SelectedDevelopment Issues.

COUNTRY :St. Vincent and the Grenadines

REGION :Latin America and the Caribbean

SECTOR :Country Economic

REPORT :TYPE CLASSIF NUMBER LANGUAGES

CEM Restricted 5241-STV English

PUBDATE :October 5, 1984

ABSTRACT : The economy of St. Vincent and the Grenadines experienced amoderate GDP growth rate of about 3% p.a. during 1982-83. Thefinances of the public sector improved. although that of thenon-financial public enterprises continued to deteriorate as hasbeen the case over the past 5 years. Following a slightdeterioration in the current account of the balance of paymentsin 1982, there was an improvement in 1983. The key developmentissues facing the economy include: (a) improvement in thefinances of the non-financial public enterprises; (b) solution tothe marketing and production problems of the arrowroot and sugarindustries; and (c) administrative reforms in the public sectorin order to enable it to cope more effectively with the rolesexpected of it. On the basis of the moderate economicperformance of the last two years and assumptions relating toprudent management of the economy, it is projected that thegrowth rate of GDP over the mediurm-term would average about 5%p.a. Continued growth of the economy will also depend on theinflow of external capital, largely on concessionary terms.

FOOTNOTE : This report is based on the work of an IBRD economic mission toSt. Vincent and the Grenadines in May 1984. The missionconsisted of Messrs. James Sackey and Roger Robinson.Mr. Gerard Byam (IARM) provided assistance to the mission on theanalysis of external debt. The mission collaborated with an IMFArticle IV consultation mission. The Government of St. Vincentand the Grenadines is currently reviewing its public sectorinvestment program. An updating note will be issued later on forconsideration at the subgroup meeting during the SeventhCaribbean Group Meeting.

I This document has a resicddistrbution and my be usWd by recipents on in the perfomance ofeir ofuial duties. Its contents nay not otherwise be discosed without World Bank authorization.

ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

Economic Situation and Selected Development Issues

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

COUNTRY DATA

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ...................................... i - iv

I. RECENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND PROSPECTS ............... 1

A. Domestic Sector . .................................... B. External Sector. 4C. Public Sector Investment Program ................... 5D. Medium and Long-term Growth Prospects .... .......... 8E. Implications for Creditworthiness .... .............. 11

TI. SELECTED DEVELOPMENT POLICY ISSUES ..................... 12

A. Agriculture ........................................ 12B. Tourism. ............................................ 15C. Manufacturing ...................................... 16D. Administrative Reforms ........................... 20E. Government's Development Priorities .... ............ 22

ANNEX I: GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT AND TECHNICALASSISTANCE LISTS ................................ 25

ANNEX II: MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS ......................... 30

STATISTICAL APPENDIX ......................................... 38

MAP (IBRD 13500R)

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd)

TEXT TABLES

Table No. Page No.

1. GDP at Constant Factor Cost ...................*.......... 12. Consolidated Public Sector Balances ........................ 23. Balance of Payments ... .......***..... we**.* ........- o.. 54. Changing Relative Role of Central Goverament ............... 75. Financing Public Sector Investment Program ................. 86. Selected Macroeconomic Projections ......................... 97. Balance of Payments Projection u..........*.......... 108. Operations of the AIA ..................................... 139. Operations of the SIL ............*........................ 14

Pop 1, of 2 paga

COUNTS? OATA - ST. VINCENT AND THE ORCEADIHES

AREA POPULATION DENSITn

3#S k02 1131936 C.Il-11a3) 234 Pe rk

Sate of growths 2.0Z (from 1571 to 1S03I 557 per kd2 of arabeb laed

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (itt1 HEALTH 161

Crude SItr *Nte (per 3.0003 29.4 Populatlio per phbyalcla 4701

Crue Deeth Satt (per 1.0001 6.6 Populatlio per hospital bed IS05

lsfaut Meortality (per 1.000 ilwl birtb.) 43.6

INCOME DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION OF LAND IWIUSNIP

I of aational luceas. highest quIstilo . owned by top 103 ot ov.rss

Iloest quintl .. S wod by bottm 10 at ofmors

ACCESS TO PIPED WATER ACCESS TO ELECTRICITT

S of pepuItlJo - urbas S af ppulatlo - urbas

_ rural f o * rterl)

OUTSITION EDUCATION (19t1I

Caiorie latake as 1 of requlreamle .. Adult liltracy rats 1 02

Per caplte proteli Isthke Primary school esrellunt * t0

Secondary school enral lmet S

ON? PER CAPITA I. 1g1301 tl 76S

0*0JS ATIONAL PRODUCT Io 1N38 ANNUAL SATE OF OSuVe £3. cs.stast prices)

USe In. 3 1177-60 1e00-03 303

ONP at Harket Prices 60.0 100.0 5.6 46. 4.7

Gross Omastle isuoutmast 29.4 33.1 13.9 6.0 15.4

Groas National SavtIns 22.3 25.1 25.0 13.3 63.1

Cerrent Aocea-t OnImace -7.2 -0.1Esxprta of oeods. N 12.4 70.2 16.4 12.7 17.1

Imports of Costs. UNS 03.2 33.6 9 . 15.6

OUTPUT IN 1136

Value AddedUS& Hmi. _

Agrlcsltura 1.S 15.5

Industry 13.6 26.2

Serulcee 43.7 58.3

TOtal/Avsfilp 74.3 100.0

PUBLIC SECTOR FPIHACE

Cofeolldetd Puoblic Secter Costral Sower..o.t

(ECC Min.) S of GDO t EC* tls.) S *f GOP

19SJ2/I3 183034 13N2 1363 1312/03 1N33/84 1932 1|30

Current Reaeipts 1335J 153.7 50.2 60.0 70.5 70.4 2 .9 30.5

Currant Expeoaltore 137.2 149.9 35.4 5S.8 68.2 77.1 29.2 29.0

Current Sdrpilodficlit 2.3 3.5 -. 2 1.2 2.3 1.3 -0.3 0.7

Capltal Eapeedlturee 27.1 20.4 11.2 S.0 24.0 3.7 .39 13.0

Esternal Aaelstance (sst) 21.0 13.0 8.7 7.0 I6.t 1.7 6.0 4.*

ai The PFr Capite GNP satlsto Is at 153 market prless. calculated by tha game *asseralo taechiqas as tha

19330 Wrld Atlas. All other cesaevlas3 to dollars le this tehe aare at tlo averag eschang tve pravsll-

Ing durlog the porled covered.

sat available

eat appllcabe

Pege 2 of 2 pages

COUNTRY DATA - ST. VINCENT AND THE CRENADOIES

MONETY CREDIT and PRICES 1977 1970 1979 196O 1951 1982 19a3

(Milion Ece outetendiag end perIod)

Money and Usesl Noisy s2.5 64.9 73.9 79.0 91.0 97.6 106.1

8ask Credit to PublIc Sector 2.5 -0.1 0.5 -0.7 3.3 14.3 13.6

Bask CredIt to Private Sector 3a.3 51.3 55.3 69.0 74.6 *6.2 99.4

(Percentage or In*dex lmbors)

money end Duest Dosey as S of GOP 56.2 53.2 52.7 50.0 46.2 43.7 44.3General Price lsdex (Jan. 19*ll100) s4.4 69.6 60.7 94.6 106.6 114.4 120.6

Annual percentege chasgee Ins

General Price Index .. 5.4 15.6 17.2 12.7 7.3 5.4

Sank credit to Pubilc Sector 316.7 -104.0 900.0 -167.5 571.4 333.3 -3.5senk credit to Private Sector 31.2 33.9 7.6 24.6 8.4 15.2 15.3

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERACE 1979-63)

l195 1962 1933 USS kin. S

(USS Million)Bananas 6.2 26.1

Experts of goods. IFS 48.7 52.4 62.4 Flour 5.6 19.2Imports of Goode. IFS 66.2 74.3 53.2 Arrowroot 0.7 2.4Resource Cap (deficit - - -17.5 -21.9 -20.5 Sweet Potatoee 0.4 1.4Other Facter Peynents (net) -0.7 -1.6 -1.6 All other cosoditles 34.3 46.9

Nat Traneatrs 22.1 12.3 15.2 Tetal 29.2 100.0Balance on Current Account -6.t -11.4 -7.2I,T Capital Inflow

Direct Investmeat O.S 0.6 3.0 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 313 1903Officall Grant Aid 5.3 5.3 4.2 USb "in.Forelgn Borrowing Cnet) 2.7 2-3 2.6

Met Credit tre IMF 1.3 - - Public Debt, Inel. geeranteed 20.9

Met Short Term Cepitel -1.1 6.3 -1.1 Nonguaranteed Private Debt ..Errors and Omlselona Z.0 3.9 -1.3 Total outstsnding 6 Disbursed ..

Increase In Reservee 1-) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2

RATE OF EXCI4ANGE DEBIT SERVICE RATIO for 1953 aI

Since July 1976 Public Debt. tact. guaranteed 2.4US61.OC - EC62.70 Nonguerenteod Private OebtUSe1.00 - USS0.37 Total outstanding * Disbureed

IBROJ/IA LENOINC, Docenbar 1983

Outstanding 4 DisbursedUndlebureed _ _

Outstanding Ilci. Undiabursed

a/ Katie of DObt Service to Exports of goode and Hon-Factor Servilce.

not aveailabl

not applicable

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Recent Economic Performance and Prospects

i. The economy of St. Vincent and the Grenadines exhibited signs ofa slowdown during 1982-83, with GDP growth averaging 3.0% p.a. Theslowdown reflected weak performance in agriculture as a result of a droughtin early 1982; decline in tourism resulting from the continuing worldrecession; limited expansion of both enclave manufacturing and retailactivities as a result of, respectively, a shortage of factory facilitiesand the introduction in 1982 of a 3X turnover tax on distributive business;and only modest growth in the other sectors. The rate of increase inconsutmer prices, however, declined from about 7% in 1982 to about 5% in1983 reflecting the deceleration in the rate of increase in import prices.

ii. After two successive years of deficits in FY80/81 and FY81/82,the public sector current accounts exhibited surpluses in FY82/83 andFY83/84. The improvements in the public sector finances derived largelyfrom surpluses in the operations of the General Government (the CentralGovernment, the Kingstown Board and the National Provident Fund). Thefinances of the nonfinancial public enterprises, however, continued todeteriorate as has been the case over the past 5 years. The currentaccount deficit of the nonfinancial public enterprises averaged EC$3.6million p.a. over the past three fiscal years, compared to surpluses ofabout EC$4.5 million p.a. for the General Government over the same period.The operations responsible for the deficit of the nonfinancial publicenterprises are the Arrowroot Industry Association (AIA), the Central Waterand Sewerage Authority (CWSA), and the Sugar Industry Limited (SIL). Thedeficits of these enterprises have been financed by borrowing from thedomestic banking system, especially the National Commercial Bank (NCB)whose loan to deposit ratio is currently well above the industry's averageand is experiencing liquidity problems. Measures to strengthen thefinances of these key nonfinancial public enterprises are discussed below.

iii. Following a strong improvement in 1981 in the current accountdeficit of the balance of payments, which reflected recovery of the economyafter the natural disasters of 1978-80, there was a renewed deteriorationin 1982, which was contained in 1983. The deterioration in 1982 resultedfrom lower export prices and volumes and the decline in tourism; whileimprovements in 1983 resulted from higher export revenue from highervolumes, despite the slight decrease in export prices. The latterhighlights the need to increase exports to counter unfavorable externalprices, provided the net benefit is positive. A large proportion of thebalance of payments current account deficit has been financed byproject-related public foreign capital inflows with implications for thecountry's external debt. Outstanding and disbursed public and publiclyguaranteed external debt quadrupled from US$4 million or 10% of GNP, at theend of December 1978, to US$20.9 million or 28.5% of GNP at the end ofDecember 1983. The debt service ratio is, however, manageable at below 3%as a result of the highly concessionary terms of the outstanding loans.

iv. Public sector investment in FY82/83 increased by about 19% overthat of FY81/82, but declined by about 25% in FY83/84. The decline inFY83/84 is attributable to delays in initiating a number of large

- ii -

projects. Public sector investment for FY84/85 is, therefore, projected toincrease by over 100% because of the implementation of the CumberlandHydroelectric project and those projects delayed in the previous year.External financing constituted about 85% of the total investment outlay forFY82/83 and FY83/84. For FY84/85, external financing is expected todecline to about 83Z of total projected outlay, thus requiring a greaterdomestic counterpart contribution. Public sector savings are projected toincrease but the increase would not be adequate and the burden on thedomestic banking system is likely to be heavy. Efforts in the future toimprove further the public sector savings are imperative.

v. On the basis of the moderate economic performance of the last twoyears, despite the general slowdown in the world economy, and assumptionsrelating to prudent management of the economy, it is projected that thegrowth rate of GDP over the medium term (1985-90) would average about 5Xp.a. and about 4% p.a. thereafter. The projections, even though they arefairly simple, highlight the types of policies that are needed if theeconomy is to sustain the moderate growth it experienced in the past. Thekey factors are the inflows of project-related external resources atconcessionary terms; improvements in public sector savings throughexpenditure controls; and expansion of agriculture, export manufacturingand tourism.

Selected Development Policy Issues

vi. Finances of the CWSA. Despite substantial increases in watercharges in January 1981, the operating deficit of the CWSA continued todeteriorate as a result of escalating costs. The tariff increase has alsohad a minimal effect because of the large percentage of unmeteredconnections in the existing system. The Caribbean Development Bank (CDB)has recently approved a loan to cover the cost of metering. The financialposition of the CWSA can only be improved under the present circumstancesby (a) formulating and implementing revisions in the tariff systemfollowing the installation of the meters, and (b) improvements in theefficiency of the water supp-y through tackling CWSA's technical problemsthat include inadequate storage facilities and leakages in the distributivesystem.

vii. Arrowroot marketing. The marketing problems for arrowroot whichbegan in 1982 remain unresolved. Since 1982, St. Vincent and theGrenadines has been unable to market its arrowroot starch, especially inthe US where technological change in the starch industry has led toconsiderable price reduction in fractionated (modified) wheat starch.Furthermore, competition from Brazil, where comparable quality of arrowrootis produced at a lower cost, has eroded both the US and the UK markets forSt. Vincent's arrowroot. The quoted price for St. Vincent's arrowroot in1983 was about USS0.35/lb., compared to USSO.72/lb. in early 1982. In themean time, the AIA is purchasing arrowroot starch from the producers at alocal price far lower than in previous years and some farmers are movingout of arrowroot production. Given the present uncertain outlook of theindustry, it is recommended that the AIA, in order to be viable, should

- iii -

(a) dispose of existing stock at the prevailing price in order to reduceits financial obligations to the NCB; (b) implement a well-defined policyof transferring land used for arrowroot production to other agriculturalcrops; (c) encourage increased productivity and cost reduction in theproduction of arrowroot by rehabilitating and consolidating existingprocessing facilities; and (d) vigorously promote the product throughcapitalizing on its unique properties in food products and cosmetics.

viii. Sugar Industry. The sugar industry which was revived in 1980 bythe establishment of the SIL is still experiencing the negative effects ofits high starting-up costs. While sugar output has increased from about1880 metric tons in 1982 to the estimated 2700 metric tons in 1984, SIL'sfinancial position remains precarious. Its current liabilities to the NCBas of September 30, 1983 amounted to about ECS19.9 million, compared to itscurrent assets of EC03.6 million. It appears that at the existing pricefor domestic sugar (about US$0.31/lb.), the break-even point for SIL, whichis estimated at about 10,000 tons/year, exceeds the firm's existingcapacity of about 5,000 tons/year. Furthermore, the industry isconstrained by transportation difficulties which have affected the timelydelivery of sugar cane to the mill and subsequently the sucrose content ofthe processed sugar. In view of the financial and production difficultiesof SIL, there is the need for a comprehensbve reappraisal of the industry.Such a study should focus on an assessmerc of the industry's technicalproblems, including those related to the existing sugar cane varieties andmechanical issues at the mill, with the objective of determining thetechnical viability of the industry in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

ix. DEVCO and Investment Promotion. The principal source of financefor local entrepreneurs seeking to establish new manufacturing undertakingis the Development Corporation (DEVCO), which also acts as the Government'sindustrial development agency. DEVCO's responsibilities are very broad,covering industrial development (directly or through equity participation),investment promotion, small industry and agricultural credit, students'loans, land development and farm improvement schemes. The Corporation isconstrained by a number of limitations rhat affect its ability to coversuch a wide range: (a) it is deficient in critical managerial andtechnical staff; and (b) its cash reserves are very low. Because of itspresent staff constraints, serious consideration should be given to thereview of the structure and objectives of DEVCO with the view of limitingits scope of activities commensurate with its resources.

x. Administrative Reforms. The rapid expansion of the public sectorhas highlighted the need for reorganization to enable it to cope moreeffectively with the roles expected of it. Its main weaknesses relate to(a) clarification of the functions of various administrative units in orderto avoid duplication and misallocation of resources; (b) substantialshortage of technical/professional and senior personnel compounded by alarge number of low-level non-technical personnel whose supervision needsare tremendous; and (c) the lack of coordination between various ministriesand the associated non-compliance and irregularities in operationalprocedures. The Government is cognizant of the weaknesses of the system

- iv -

and in its FY82/83 Budget document indicated interest in reorganization ofthe public service. Technical assistance from the Public Sector Managementand Planning section of the OECS Economic Affairs Secretariat and theCaribbean Centre for Development Administration was obtained in 1983 and apreliminary consultant report on the reorganization of the Ministry ofFinance, Planning and Development was submitted to the Government inmid-1983 and is under review. It is recommended that the reform proposalsof the various consultant reports, once reviewed, should urgently beimplemented with the view of improving the functioning of the publicsector.

xi. Government's Development Priorities. During the writing of thisreport, a new Government of St. Vincent and the Grenadines was installedfollowing a general election on July 25, 1984. The new Government hasindicated its desire to tackle the principal policy issues discussed abovein a speedy manner. In particular, it is committed to: (a) strengtheningthe finances of the public sector by dealing with the problems of thearrowroot and sugar industries and by undertaking necessary administrativereforms; (b) encouraging the development of the private sector in theindustrialization process in an effort to reduce unemployment; andCc) pursuing sectoral policies in agriculture, tourism, infrastructure,health and education that are directed at accelerating economic developmentin St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The Government's intentions, whilestill in the process of formulation, appear to be in the right directionand should be encouraged.

CHAPTER I - RECENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND PROSPECTS

A. Domestic Sector

1.01 The economic slowdown experienced in 1982 persisted in 1983. Itis estimated that real GDP grew by about 4% in 1983 and it is expected tofurther slowdown in 1984. The continuing slowdown of the economy resultedfrom the weak external demand for arrowroot and the limited expansion ofboth enclave manufacturing and domestic retail activities as a result of,respectively, the shortage of factory facilities and the introduction in1982 of the 3% turnover tax on distributive business.

Table 1: GDP at Constant Factor Cost(Annual Percentage Change)

1980 1981 1982 1983

GDP at Factor Cost 4.3 9.3 2.5 4.1Agriculture, Fishing & Forestry -13.6 51.2 -3.3 5.1Industry 5.3 3.1 3.8 3.3Manufacturing (4.7) (1.8) (6.2) (2.5)Construction (5.7) (4.5) (0.0) (0.9)

Services 8.4 3.4 3.6 4.1Wholesale and retail trade (3.7) (-3.6) (3.7) (0.9)Hotels and restaurants (27.6) (-13.5) (6.3) (2.9)

Source: Table 2.2.

1.02 Production in the key sectors, banana and tourism, experiencedsome improvement in 1983 over that of 1982. Banana production, whichdeclined by about 4% in 1982 because of a prolonged drought in the earlypart of the year, grew by about 4% in 1983. Tourism grew modestly in 1983,following the decline in 1982, as a result of the military intervention inneighbouring Grenada which led to its wharfing activities being redirectedto St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The total number of visitors grew byabout 8% in 1983, compared to the 5% decline in 1982. This growth appearstemporary and therefore the need to upgrade and expand St. Vincent and theGrenadines' tourism promotional program is imperative in view of theaggressive promotional activities now taking place in Grenada. Expansionin manufacturing output was modest while construction activities werestagnant during 1982-83 as a result of the general slow down in newinvestment activities, especially in enclave manufacturing. Growth in theother sectors of the economy during 1983 followed the modest trend in themain sectors, with the main sigr,ificant growth being exhibited byelectricity and water (both as a result the implementation of much neededrehabilitation and expansion projects) and Banking and financial services.The rate of increase in consumer prices declined from about 7.3% in 1982 toabout 5.4% in 1983, reflecting a deceleration in the rate of increase inimport prices.

-2-

Public Sector Finances

1.03 After two successive years of deficits in FY80181 and FY81/82,the public sector current accounts exhibited surpluses in FY82/83 andFY83/84. The improvements in the public sector finances resulted fromsurpluses in the operation of the General Government (the CentralGovernment, the Kingstown Board and the National Provident Fund). As hasbeen the case of the past five years, the finances of the nonfinancialpublic enterprises continued to deteriorate. The operations responsiblefor the deficit of the nonfinancial public enterprises included theArrowroot Industry Association (AIA), the Central Water and SewerageAuthority (CWSA) and the Sugar Industry Limited (SIL). The deficits ofthese enterprises have been financed by borrowing from the domestic bankingsystem, especially the National Commercial Bank (NCB) whose loan to depositratio is currently well above the industry's average and is experiencingliquidity problems. Measures to strengthen the finances of the threenonfinancial enterprises are imperative as discussed below.

Table 2: Consolidated Public Sector Balances(ECS million)

Actual Est. Projected1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85

Consolidated Current Account Balance -3.4 2.3 3.8 3.9General Government O(of which Central Government) (-4.4) (2.3) (1.3) (0.2)donfinancial Public Enterprises -3.5 -4.3 -3.1 -3.3(of which: (AIA) (-3.0) (-1.8) (-0.2) (-0.8)

(CWSA) (-1.0) (-1.2) (-1.2) (-1.2)(SIL) (-4.0) (-4.7) (-5.3) (-4.4)

Capital Expenditure & Net Lending 22.4 27.6 20.4 45.4

Overall Balance -25.8 -25.3 -16.6 -41.5

FinancingExternal (Net) 18.0 21.0 13.0 33.1(of which Capital Grants) (13.9) (14.8) (8.2) (14.6)

Domestic (Net) 7.8 4.3 3.6 8.4

Source: Table 5.6.

1.04 A number of fiscal measures were implemented in FY83/84 with bothpositive and negative impacts on the Central Government current revenues.Those with positive impacts on current revenues included: a special levyof EC$4.80/gallon on imported aerated waters; an increase from 1% to 2Z ofthe annual levy imposed on interest bearing deposit balances at commercialbanks; transient traders licence of either EC$1000 per annum or EC$250 pervisit; an annual resident permit equivalent to the existing fee fortemporary residence; consumption tax on wines; and special duties on

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spirits. Together, those new measures were expected to yield aboutEC$959,000 in new revenues. In contrast, two new tax concessions grantedin FY83/84 would have negative impacts (approximately EC$511,OO) on theCentral Government revenues. They were (a) the abolition of income tax onall pensions, including social security payments, whether earned locally orabroad, and (b) the reduction of consumption tax on aerated waters fromEC$1.60/gallon to EC$O.80/gallon in an effort to promote production in thelocal soft drinks industry and to effect a reduction in price to theconsumer. Of the new fiscal measures, the increase in the annual levyimposed on interest bearing balances at commercial banks might have a muchgreater negative implication for private domestic savings. The levy wouldincrease costs for the commercial banks, lower interest rates on privatedeposits and likely limit potential private savings. A careful review ofthis measure is warranted before further increases in the rate of the levyare proposed in the future.

1.05 Despite the weak financial performance experienced by the AIA,CWSA and SIL, the finances of the other nonfinancial public enterprisesgenerally improved. The Banana Growers' Association (BGA) exhibited aslight decline in current revenues during FY81182-FY82/83 as a result ofthe depreciation of the British pound sterling relative to the US dollar.Increases in export volumes in 1983 however helped to restore theAssociation's modest current account surplus. The other nonfinancialpublic enterprises have continue to be net creditors to the system as aresult of tariff changes and the implementation of cost reduction policies.

1.06 Despite substantial increases in water charges in January 1981,the operating deficit of the Central Water and Sewerage Authority (CSWA)continued to deteriorate as a result of escalating costs. Thne tariffincrease has also had a minimal effect because of the large percentage ofunmetered connections, in the existing system. The Caribbean L_velopimentBank (CDB) has recently approved a loan for EC$1.3 million to cover thecost of metering. The financial position of the CWSA can only be improvedunder the present circumstances by (a) formulating and implementingrevisions in the tariff system following the installation of meters, and(b) improvements in the efficiency of the water supply through tacklingCWSA's technical problems that include inadequate storage facilities andleakages in the distributive system. Significant financial problemscharacterize the operations of the AIA and the SIL. Both may be traced toserious production and marketing problems and are analysed in detail below(para. 2.02-2.06).

Money and Credit

1.07 Net domestic credit of the commercial banksl/ grew by about 19%in the 12-month period ending March 1984; this was not matched by acorresponding increase in the banks' liabilities to the private sector.

1/ There are four branches of foreign banks and the state-owned NationalComm-rcial Bank (NCB). The analysis excludes, for lack of data, theCooperative Bank and the Agriculture Credit and Loan Bank which areboth not commercial banks by the strict legal definition but do takedeposits and make loans.

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The strong increase in net domestic credit reflected a sharp rise in thepublic sector borrowing as well as an increase by about 13X in privatesector loans. The pattern of credit to the private sector, nevertheless,reflected previous trends and may have negative implications for theproductive sectors, especially tourism and agriculture. Policies which aimat encouraging the commercial banks to increase their exposure in these twosectors should be formulated and implemented. They may includedifferential requirements on the legal lending rates.

1.08 The increased net domestic borrowing requirements of the publicand private sectors have been met largely by loans and advances from theNational Commercial Bank (NCB). Its net credit to the Central Governmentand the private sector increased by about 88% and 26% respectively,compared to 23% and 10X respectively by the rest of the commercial banks.This has implied higher loan to deposit ratio for the NCB than theindustry's average with associated liquidity constraints. The Governmentis exploring various approaches to assist the NCB to improve its liquidityposition.

1.09 With a view to improving the allocation of bank credit and theincentives fcr savings, the commercial banks raised their prime lendingrate to 10X in early 1982 and up to 12% in 1983; while deposit rates havealso been adjusted upward in 1983 by some banks to 5% for saving deposits,5.5% for 3, and 3-6 months time deposits, and 5-7.5% for 6-12 months timedeposits. The low interest rate structure derives from the wide operatingspread adopted by the banks which are constrained by legal maximum lendingrates of 12.5Z for most loans and 14.5% on certain consumer loans underEC$14,500. Loans to the Central Government and statutory bodies aresubject to stipulated interest rates of 8% to 10%. The commercial banksare also subject to deposi' liabilities which was increased from 2.5% to7.5% in October 1983 (but now with accruing interest payment of 2.5% p.a.)and a levy of 2% on the interest bearing deposits. In order to furtherimprove the incentives for saving and the allocation of bank credit, theGovernment should review the structure of bank interest rates with the viewof reducing the spread and the cost of banking.

B. External Sector

1.10 The external sector of a small economy, like that of St. Vincentand the Grenadines, is exogenous for policy purposes but prudent policiesformulated and implemented in the domestic sector need to support theeconomy against inevitable negative external shocks. Government policyhas, therefore, been directed at a constant review of the country's balanceof payments and maintaining the deficits within prudent limits. Followinga strong improvement in 1981 in the current account deficit, whichreflected recovery of the economy after the natural disasters in 1978-80,there was a renewed deterioration in 1982, which was contained in 1983.The deterioration in 1982 resulted from lower export prices and volumes andthe decline in tourism. The improvements in 1983 resulted from higherexport revenue from higher volumes, despite the slight decrease in exportprices. The latter highlights the need for increasing production tocounter unfavorable external prices, provided the net benefit is positive.

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Table 3: Balance of Payments

(US$ million)

1980 1981 1982 1983

Exports of Goods & NFS 39.6 50.1 53.5 63.7Imports of Goods & NFS 65.1 68.3 77.2 86.1Resource Balance -25.5 -18.2 -23.7 -22.4Factor Services & Transfers 12.2 12.1 12.3 15.2Current Account Balance -13.2 -6.1 -11.4 -7.2Private Capital 1.1 0.5 0.6 3.0Public 8.8 9.6 8.3 6.9Banking System 1.6 -2.0 6.4 -1.4Errors & Omissions 1.7 -2.0 -3.9 -1.3

Memo Items (Z)Resource Balance/GNP -44.2 -25.2 -29.2 -25.2Current Account Balance/GNP -22.9 -8.4 -14.1 -8.1

Source: Table 3.1.

1.11 The trade deficits have been financed largely by transfers, whilea large proportion of the balance of payments current account deficits hasbeen financed by project-related public foreign capital inflows. Projectfinancing has accounted for most of the variation in external capital flowsand this component is expected to increase significantly in the next fewyears as a result of the Cumberland Hydroelectric project. The externalinflows have implications for the country's external debt service. Duringthe period 'rom 1978 to 1983, outstanding and disbursed public and publiclyguaranteed debt (excluding undisbursed) quadrupled from US$4.0 million or10% of GNP, at the end of December 1978 to US$20.9 million, or 28.5% of GNPat the end of December 1983. The disbursement of CDB loans especiallyduring 1979-81 for the Sugar Industry Ltd. and the dairy plant accountedfor the sharp increase. The debt service ratios in FY83 remained at thelow 2.0% and 2.4% of GNP and of Exports of Goods and Non-factor servicesrespectively, as a result of the highly concessionary terms of theoutstanding loans.

C. Public Sector Investment Program

Background

1.12 Public sector investment in FY82/83 increased by about 19% overthat of FY81/82, but it is estimated to decline by about 25% in FY83/84.The fluctuations in the level of investment are not unusual as the size ofthe investment package in any given year has depended on the magnitude ofexternal inflows, estimated at over 85% of the total public sectorinvestment over the past 5 years. For FY83/84, the public investment toGDP ratio was only about 7%, the lowest since FY78/79 when it was about4%. The sharp decline in the level of public investment in FY83/84 isattributable to delays in initiating key projects which included the USAID

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financed Agricultural Diversification Program (estimated at EC$6.8million), the CDB financed Agriculture Feeder Roads III (estimated atEC$19.6 million) and the Cumberland Hydroelectric project (estimated atEC$89.4 million). Public sector investment for FY84/85 is, therefore,projected at EC$45 million, about 16% of projected GDP. External financingconstituted about 85% of the total investment outlay for FY82/83 andFY83/84. For FY84/85, external financing is expected to decline to about83% of total projected outlay, thus requiring a greater domesticcounterpart contribution. Public sector savings are projected to increasein FY84/85, but the increase would not be adequate and the burden on thedomestic banking system is likely to be heavy.

1.13 Program implementation during FY82/83 and FY83/84 was satisfac-tory, except for some cash flow problems associated with CDB-financed DEVCOprojects in FY82/83. The CDB suspended disbursements on some of its loansto DEVCO in FY82/83 because of procedural problems which were settled inearly 1984. Completion of the Kingstown Harbor Expansion project which wasscheduled for FY83/84 is delayed until FY84/85 because of technicalitiesassociated with CDB's disbursement procedures; the CDB requires theGovernment to contribute its counterpart funds before its disbursements forthe project are resumed. Project monitoring rem2ins very weak. TheCentral Planning Unit of the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Development,the principal institution which is responsible for project monitoring, isunderstaffed. The other project executing ministries are also understaffedwith adverse effects for project monitoring. The Government is cognizantof the problem and has requested technical assistance to reorganize thepublic sector from the Caribbean Centre for Development Administration andthe Economic Affairs Secretariat of the OECS (see para. 2.21).

Government's Development Strategy and PSIP

1.14 The Government's development strategy focuses on export promotionand employment generation based on agriculture, industry and tourism, andon the satisfaction of the most basic needs of the population. The overallcomposition of the PSIP appears consistent with the Government's develop-ment strategy and should, in general, be maintained.

1.15 The authorities have not drawn up a formal PSIP and financingplan for FY84/85 - FY89/90, pending the completion of its proposedmedium-term development plan. As a result of recent change in Government,matters related to the preparation and timing of the development plan arecurrently under review. However, in its annual Budget exercise forFY84/85, the Government identified an extensive list of projects in varyingstages of implementation. The mission reviewed these projects and on thebasis of identified sources of financing, projected the public investmentfor FY84/85 as ECS44.7 million with ongoing projects constituting about 45%of total outlay. The program would imply about 135% increase inexpenditures over that of FY83184, mainly because of projected outlays forkey projects in the power sector. Outlays on the power sector, mainlythrough the execution of the Cumberland Hydroelectric project, wouldconstitute about 25% of the total projected expenditures for FY84/85.Apart from the emphasis on power, the program is similar to the publicsector investment pattern during the past 5 years and is consistent with

the Government's objective of providing the necessary supportinginfrastructure for the development of the economy.

1.16 A feature of the composition of the PSIP over recent years, withimplications for project execution and financing, is the decline in theCentral Government's share of total investment outlay. Since FY81/82, thepercentage of total outlay attributed to the Central Government hasdeclined from 80X to the projected 42Z for FY84/85. The decline in therole of the Central Government in direct public sector investment, alsomanifested in nominal terms, may be attributed to a policy shift on thepart of many aid donors to minimize program-type support and to directassistance to specific sectors, which in St. Vincent and the Grenadines,are dominated by public sector enterprises. Furthermore, with thetermination of the capital revenue flows from the United Kingdom sinceFY80/81, the Central Government's role in public investment hasconcentrated on the provision of basic infrastructure in transportation,health and education to support the private and the rest of the publicsectors. Central Government investment activities in the directlyproductive sectors (agriculture, forestry, fishing, manufacturing, andtourism) are directed at infrastructure development and problem solvingthrough investigative studies. The implications for program implementationof the shift in the relative role of the Central Government vis-a-vis therest of the public sector are possible improvements in project executionwhich will result from greater agency control over day to day management.

Table 4: Changing Relative Role of Central Government in PSIP

1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85Total Capital Expenditures

ECS million 21.5 25.4 19.0 44.7Central Government 17.2 20.0 9.7 18.8Rest of Public Sector 4.3 5.4 9.3 25.9

As Percentage of total Outlay 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0Central Government 80.0 78.6 51.0 42.1Rest of Public Sector 20.0 21.4 49.0 57.9

As Percentage of GDP market Prices 10.2 10.9 7.4 16.0Central Government 8.2 8.5 3.8 6.7Rest of Public Sector 2.0 2.4 3.6 9.3

Source: Table 5.8 - 5.9.

Selected Implementation Issues

1.17 Financing. St. Vincent and the Grenadines has relied to a largeextent on highly concessional capital inflows to finance its PSIP and hopesto continue mobilizing external resources on concessionary terms. However,in order to continue to receive the support of external donors for itsdevelopment efforts, it will have to increase its efforts to provide anadequate local counterpart contribution. After a number of years ofnegative public sector savings, the finances of the public sector haveimproved with current account surpluses in FY82/83 and FY83/84. The

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dependence on the domestic Banking system to finance the PSIP for FY82/83and FY83/84 thus declined from ECS6.9 million in FY81/82 to an average ofEC$2.2 million in both years. Of the proposed public sector investmentexpenditures amounting to EC$44.7 million in FY84/85, the Governmentexpects to mobilize about EC$37.9 million or 85% of the total programoutlay from external sources. Some EC$14.2 million, or 32% of the totalprogram outlay, are already available for ongoing projects with firmcommitments, leaving EC$23.7 million (or US$8.8 million) to be furthermobilized. The domestic counterpart requirements amount to EC$6.8 millionand will place a heavy burden on the domestic banking system if publicsector savings are not increased beyond current levels. To accomplish thisgoal, the Government should implement policies to improve the finances ofthe non-financial public enterprises, notably the Sugar Industry Limitedand the Arrowroot Industry Association, and thus reduce their dependence onthe domestic banking system.

Table 5: Financing Public Sector Investment Program(EC$ million)

1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85Capital Expenditure 21.5 25.4 19.0 44.7Public Sector Savings - X 2 38W

Net External Grants & Loans 18.0 21.0 13.0 37.9(Committed) (18.0) (21.0) (13.0) (14.2)

Net Domestic Banks 6.9 2.1 2.2 2.9

Source: Table 5.7.

1.18 Institutional Development. Project preparation and execution inthe past, as noted in previous memoranda, have suffered from the limitedavailability of local administrative and managerial skills. Accordingly, asubstantial component of technical assistance in the areas of feasibilitystudies, project preparation and implementation, institution building, andmanagement and technical training had been included in past investmentprograms. Furthermore, the authorities have requested additional technicalassistance from the major aid donors to explore, among other things, newareas of investment in agricultural planning, tourism development andalternative energy sources. They have also indicated their willingness touse the services of outside contracting firms to implement projectswhenever appropriate. These measures should minimize the existing burdenon the public sector, provide training, strengthen institutions and preventserious bottlenecks from obstructing the implementation of ongoing PSIP.

D. Medium & Long-Term Growth Prospects

1.19 The moderate economic performance of the last two years, despitethe general slowdown in the world economy, provides some indication of theprospects for the economy of St. Vincent and the Grenadines. On the basisof assumptions relating to prudent management of the economy in the future,an analysis of the growth prospects for the period 1985-1995 is conducted.Annex II outlines the key assumptions of the projections. In this section,the focus is on the policy implications.

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Growth and Employment

1.20 The medium- and long-term prospects for the economy depend on thecontinued expansion of agriculture, export manufacturing and tourism.Given the unexploited potential in agriculture, manufacturing and tourism,there are good prospects for rapid growth, provided project-related aidresources to finance the required supporting infrastructure continue toflow in at the anticipated rate on a timely basis. It is expected that thegrowth rate of GDP (at factor cost) over the medium term (1985-90) wouldaverage about 5% p.a. and about 4X p.a. thereafter, led by a strongexpansion in construction as a result of the Cumberland HydroelectricProject. The growth in agriculture is expected to be slow at the initialstages as attempts are made to rehabilitate or replace arrowroot;thereafter growth is projected to be modest. Both tourism andmanufacturing are expected to be sluggish during a period of transitionwhen attempts are made to resuscitate these industries; but modest growthrates are projected after 1990.

1.21 On the basis of anticipated high external resource inflows(especially associated with the Cumberland Hydroelectric and theAgricultural Diversification projects), gross domestic investment duringthe medium-term is projected to be high, averaging about 34% of GDP during1985-1989. Gross domestic investment is expected to peak in 1987 at thehigh level of implementation of the Cumberland Hydroelectric Project (35%of GDP), and decline thereafter to about 31% of GDP by 1995. On the basisof the expected expansion in construction activities (because of thecommencement of a large number of key new projects), the unemployment rate,which is currently asserted by the Government to be between 40-45% ofemployable persons, may be expected to decline below 35% by the end of thedecade. The expected rise of employment and the improvements in personalincomes should improve the domestic savings from the existing estimated 5%of GDP in 1982 to the projected 10% of GDP by 1995, if appropriate interestrate policies are implemented.

Table 6: Selected Macroeconomic Projections(In Percentage)

1982 1983 1984 1985-89 1990-95GDP (factor cost) Growth 2.5 4.1 2.3 4.7 4.2Investment/GDP 31.2 34.5 29.0 33.6 31.0National Savings/GDP 18.4 22.3 16.4 17.1 20.3Domestic Savings/GDP 4.8 6.3 4.5 5.6 8.6Consumption/GDP 95.2 93.7 95.5 94.4 91.4

Source; Annex II.

Public Sector Finances

1.22 The public sector finances should be expected to improve in thelong-term if measures to strengthen the weak finances of the nonfinancialpublic enterprises (notably the AIA and the SIL) are able to reduce theirdeficit to zero by 1988. Policies proposed in para. 2.03 and 2.05 with

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respect to the AIA and SIL are imperative if the projected ixerease in thepublic sector savings from 1.5% of GDP in 1984 to 6.5% of C-t': in 1995 is tobe realized. The Central Government current revenues are expected to riserapidly as tax revenues from international trade transactions increase as aresult of the expansion in those activities and proposed improvements intax administration. Income tax revenues are also projected to rise asemployment and incomes Increase. On the other hand, Central Governmentexpenditures (especially those relating to wages and salaries) should berestrained by moderation in employment and wage practices if the projectedsavings targets are to be met. Although the public sector capitalinvestment is expected to be high because of the proposed hydroelectricproject, public sector reliance on the domestic banking system is projectedto be low (from the estimated EC$5.1 million in 1984 to EC$0.5 million in1993 and zero thereafter). This is because of the large expected foreigninflows (in terms of grants and concessionary loans) associated with theplanned investment program.

Balance of Payments and External Debt

1.23 The expected expansion in project-related activities during theperiod suggests that imports of cap'tal goods are likely to rise rapidly,especially during the first half of the period (1985-1990). Exports arealso expected to recover rapidly, especially during the second half of theperiod if new manufacturing establishments become fully operational andplanned diversification in export agriculture is implemented. The resourcebalance is, therefore, projected to increase from -US$20.8 million in 1983to -US$68.9 million in 1995 (Table 7). The current account deficit of thebalance of payments (BOP) is thus projected to increase from US$7.2 millionin 1983 to about USS30.2 million in 1995. The current account deficit isexpected to be financed largely by project-related grants and loansespecially during the first half of the period supplemented by privatecapital inflows during the second half of the period. The BOP currentaccount to GDP ratio is therefore projected to increase from -8.3% in 1983to -11.9% in 1988 and decline thereafter to -9.1% in 1995.

Table 7: Balance of Payments Projection(US$ million)

1983 1984 1985 1990 1995Exports of GNFS 62.4 68.3 75.4 134.9 225.2Imports of GNFS 83.2 86.2 99.6 176.7 294.0Resource Balance -20.8 -17.9 -24.2 -41.8 -68.9Net Factor Income -1.6 -1.6 -2.2 -3.8 -6.8Private Transfers 15.2 13.0 14.8 27.4 45.0Current Account Balance -7.2 -6.5 -11.6 -18.2 -30.2Net Public Sector 6.9 6.2 11.5 15.0 18.3Net Private Sector 3.0 0.3 0.2 3.3 11.9Memo Item:Current Acct/GDP (X) -8.3 -6.8 -10.7 -9.1 -9.1

Source: Annex II.

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The external debt, which is estimated at US$20.9 million in 1983, isprojected to more than double over the medium- and long-term period becauseof the expected increase in project-related loans to finance the publicsector investment program. The debt-service ratio was about 2.4Z ofexports of goods and nonfactor services in 1983. Provided the Governmentsucceeds in mobilizing external assistance in the form of grants and loanon largely concessionary terms during the period 1985-1995, the annual debtservice ratio should not exceed 5% which is manageable.

E. Implications for Creditworthiness

1.24 The projections, even though they are fairly simple, highlightthe types of policies that are needed if the economy of St. Vincent and theGrenadines is to sustain the moderate growth it has experienced in thepast. The key factors are the inflows of project-related externalresources at concessionary terms (an exogenous factor); improvements indomestic savings via the promotion of positive public sector savingsthrough expenditure controls; and expansion of agriculture, exportindustries and tourism. The Government in the past has followed a moderatefiscal policy and it is expected that policies relating to improving theweak finances of the nonfinancial public enterprises (notably AIA and SIL)would be implemented. The public sector investment program is directed atproviding the necessary support for the expansion of agriculture, exportindustry and tourism. Provided the Government succeeds in mobilizingexternal resources, largely on concessionary terms to support itsinvestment program, the moderate economic outlook projected may beattained.

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CHAPTER II - SELECTED DEVELOPMENT POLICY ISSUES

A. Agriculture

2.01 The agricultural sector, while declining somewhat in recent yearsas a result of unfavorable weather and natural disaster, has managed toretain a position of crucial importance in the economy. It accounts forabout 15% of GDP, 20% of t'e labor force and 402 of the country's exportearnings. Banana (the prime commodity by a large margin), groundprovisions (sweet potatoes, plantains, eddoes and dasheens, etc.) andarrowroot account for the major share of total output and exports. Sugarwas re-introduced in 1980 with the intention of meeting domestic demand.Inadequacy and instability of returns to export crops have been majorproblems over the years. They were particularly acute in 1982 with fallingreturns from bananas as a result of the depreciation of the pound sterlingand lower output resulting from a prolonged drought, an almost totalcollapse of the market for arrowroot starch, and ongoing difficulties withthe marketing of ground provisions, vegetables, etc.

Main Issues

2.02 Arrowroot Production & Marketinge Once a major crop, output ofarrowroot declined steadily through the 1960s and early 1970s, reaching alow level of less than 600 tonnes of starch in 1971. It recovered to about1,000 tonnes in 1972, declined thereafter and until recently the outlookseemed very promising with a new, lucrative and relatively large market foruse as a coating on computer paper. However, technological change in thestarch industry has led to considerable price reduction in fractionated(modified) wheat starch. Competition from Brazil, where comparable qualityof arrowroot starch is produced at a lower cost (resulting from thebenefits of economies of scale, lower land cost and modern machinery), hasalso eroded both the US and UK markets for St. Vincent's arrowroot.Furthermore, production costs have increased while yields have declined asa result of lower grinding capacity and inefficiency of the factories(through obsolescence of machinery). The current production cost isestimated at US$0.45/lb compared to the 1983 export prices of aboutUS$0.35/lb. It has been indicated by industry officials that withappropriate technological change, it should be possible to reduce the costto about US$0.30/lb. But such a change will require considerable externalresources to rehabilitate and modernize existing factory machinery.

2.03 The Arrowroot Industry Assoclation (AIA) is, however, stillpurchasing arrowroot from the producers but at a local price far lower thanin previous years and some farmers are moving out of arrowroot production.(Producers are usually paid in proportion to the export price.) Thefinancial position of the Association has deteriorated considerably as aresult. Given the present uncertain outlook of the industry, it isrecommended that the AIA, in order to be viable, should: (a) dispose ofexisting stock at the prevailing price in order to reduce its financingneeds; (b) implement a well-defined policy of transferring land used forarrowroot production to other agricultural crops; (c) encourage increasedproductivity and cost reduction in the production of arrowroot byrehabilitating and consolidating existing processing facilities; and

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(d) vigorously promote the product through capitalizing on its uniqueproperties in food products and cosmetics.

Table 8: Operations of the Arrowroot Industry Association a/

(EC$ million)

1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83

Current receipts 2.0 2.9 0.8 2.0Current expenditures 2.0 2.7 3.8 3.8Current Account Balance - 0.2 -3.0 -1.8Capital Expenditures 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1Overall deficit -0.7 -0.2 -3.1 -1.9

FinancingExternal (Net) - - 0.1 -Domestic (Net) 0.7 0.2 3.0 1.9Banks (0.9) (-) (3.0) (0.1)Central Government (0.2) (-) (-) (2.0)Other (-0.4) (0.2) (-) (-0.2)

Memo ItemsStocks 0.4 0.4 2.3 3.5Bank overdraft 1.0 1.2 4.1 4.3

a/ Financial year ending September 30.

Source: Arrowroot Industry Association.

2.04 Sugar Industry. The sugar industry which was revived in 1980 bythe establishment of the St. Vincent Sugar Industry Limited (SIL) is stillexperiencing the negative effects of its extraordinary high starting-upcosts. While the output of processed sugar has increased from about 1,880metric tons in 1982 to the projected 2,700 metric tons in 1984, SIL'sfinancial position remains precarious. Its current liabilities to theNational Commercial Bank (NCB) as of September 30, 1983, amounted to aboutEC$19.9 million, compared to its current assets of EC$3.6 million.Furthermore, the industry is constrained by transportation difficultieswhich have affected the timely delivery of sugar cane to the mill andsubsequently the sucrose content of the processed sugar. The management ofSIL is planning to diversify into rum production in order to use up itsby-product (molasses). With the view of improving the finances of SIL, themanagement has requested the Government to either refinance its short-termdebt or convert it into equity. The proposal is currently underconsideration.

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Table 9: Operations of the Sugar Industry Limited a/

(EC$ million)

Est.1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84

Current receipts 1.0 2.6 3.7 4.3Current expenditures 4.2 6.6 8.4 9.6(of which: Interest

payments) 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.7Current Account Deficit -3.2 -4.0 -4.7 -5.3Capital Expenditure 22.0 1.0 0.6 0.5Overall Deficit -25.2 -5.0 -5.3 -5.8

FinancingCapital Grants and Loans 20.3 0.2 0.4 -Domestic 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.8

Memo ItemsNCB Loans 5.6 5.1 4.6 5.8Bank overdraft 5.7 10.8 15.3 18.3Stocks 0.6 1.6 2.4 2.4

a/ Financial year ending September 30.

Source: Sugar Industry Limited.

2.05 The unusually high starting-up costs and cost overrun haveimpacted negatively on SIL's finances. Apart from interest payments due onthe loan from the CDB during construction which was converted into equityby the Government, a significant part of the rehabilitation expendituresand interest payments have been financed by bank overdraft (at 9.5Zinterest rate). In the financial year which ended on September 30, 1983,the interest payments made on overdraft to the NCB amounted to EC$1.2million or 332 of total sales revenue (including molasses). During FYBO/81- FY82/83, the ratio of total interest payments to current receiptsincreased from 202 to 65X; most of the increase was accounted for by thedramatic increase in interest expense on overdraft to the NCB. Apart fromadversely affecting the liquidity position of the NCB, the debt-serviceburden poses a potential constraint on SIL's ability to remain viable.

2.06 Even when allowance is made for the fact that production is stillat an early stage and that substantial advances should flow fromidentification of the most suitable varieties and cultural practices,yields to date have been disappointing. The low yields, compounded bymechanical problems at the mill, have resulted in an extremely high cost ofproduction. The current cost of production (excluding interest anddepreciation) is estimatec at EC$0.90 (US$0.34)/lb. In view of theforegoing comments on the financial and production difficulties of SIL,

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there is an urgent need for a comprehensive reappraisal of the industry.Such a study, which should also address the technical problems related tothe existing sugar cane varieties and mechanical issues at the mill, shouldhave as primary objective the assessment of the technical, financial, andeconomic viability of the industry in St. Vincent and the Grenadines withthe view to determining its future. The Government also recognizes theurgent need for such a study and is actively seeking external technicalassistance.

2.07 Marketing. Three important components of the marketing problemsof St. Vincent and the Grenadines can be identified--market information,storage, and packaging and processing. Aside from bananas and arrowrootwhose marketing is handled by the respective organizations, a substantialproportion of the remainder of the export crops is handled by theSt. Vincent Marketing Corporation (SVMC) whose services cover collecting,bagging, shipment and the collection and distribution of receipts. Theremainder of the export trade Is handled by private traders who provideservices from the farm gate onward. Although the role of the SVMC issatisfactory within its limited resources, the services provided by theindividual operators tend to be inadequate, especially as relating tograding and packaging. Furthermore, recent licensing policies by Trinidadand Tobago, the principal market, have affected the volume of trade by theprivate ooerators. The issue of marketing must be treated in a coordinatedway if the situation is to be dealt with effectively. This can only beachieved through a major and coordinated effort to identify markets, themost suitable ways of selling into them and the most effective form ofproduct. Once these have been idenLifled, appropriate storage, processingand packaging facilities can be assessed and provided. A number of ongoingand proposed projects in the PSIP are directed at the latter issue relatingto storage, processing and packaging.

B. Tourism

2.08 Tourism growth in St. Vincent and the Grenadines is intrinsicallytied up with the overall performance of the sector in the Caribbean. Inthe recent past. the grGwth of yachting, inter-island cruise-ship visitors,and guest arrivals from the region (Caribbean tourist in 1983 account forabout 53Z of total stopover visitors) has been significant for the sector.This has depended on the number of cruise-ship calls to St. Vincent and theGrenadines which sharply declined in 1981 and 1982 but increasedsignificantly in 1983 because of the events in neighboring Grenada. Thedevelopment of the industry to date has been somewhat haphazard, mainlybecause of -he absence of a long-term program identifying the tourismpotential of the country and devising strategies for exploiting it. Thephysical structure of the main island is an inhibitive factor to tourismdevelopment. There are few beach areas of any tourism significancealthough there are some spectacular mountain scenery, particularly on theLeeward side and to the north. The only white sand beaches of anysignificance are to be found in the southern part of the island, which tosome -xtent, are already developed. The Grenadines, on the other hand, areareas of high potential for tourism centered around yachting andhigh-quality hotels. They are almost entirely mountainous, forested,surrounded by long coral reefs, and possess white sand beaches. Previous

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economic reports have recommnded, on the basis of priority, thedevelopment of Bequia, Union Island and Tobago Cays. It is furtherrecommended that given the heavy demands on the Government's limitedresources for other purposes, it should encourage private sector developersand only concentrate on the provision of basic infrastructure such asjetties, airstrips, water, and electricity.

Issues

2.09 Master Plan. Previous economic reports have recommended that atourism master plan should be carried out. The Ministry of Tourism isexpected to receive a tourism adviser, under a technical assistance programby the OAS, whose main responsibility would be the development of such aplan. It is recommended that in formulating and implementing any long-termtourism plan emphasis should be placed on promoting the uniquecharacteristic of the country as an unspoiled destination for selectivetourism. Such a focus would require a close coordination between bothDEVCO and the Central Planning Unit of the Ministry of Finance, Plannlngand Development and the Tourist Board. The Tourist Board has initiated areview of existing tourism capacity and potential (the EEC has approved125,000 ECU for the exercise commencing July 1984). It is recommended thatthe review should be broadened to encompass recommendations for approprlateinstitutions and the establishment of appropriate accommodation andrestaurant standards.

2.10 Transportation.2/ Previous economic reports have discussed theconstraints posed by the inadequate ai:port facility and its implicationsfor the expansion of tourism. The Government, with the asststance of anexternal consulting firm, conducted a prefeasibility study to identifyimprovements to the Arnos Vale airport in St. Vincent. The proposedimprovement project Ls to increase the length of the existivg runway from1,463 meters to 2,000 meters and to strengthen the bearing capacity of therunway from the existing Load Classification Number (LCN) 18 to LCN 65.The objective is to allow larger aircraft such as the DC-9 - 30 and theB737 - 200 which serve medium distance destinations (such as Miami) to landand take off from Arnos Vale. Direct medium distance flights principallyfrom the US are expected to stimulate tourism and industrial development inSt. Vincent and the Grenadines. However, several studies carried out inthe past have resulted in conflicting recommendations for airportdevelopment. The optimum solution to the problem of inadequate airtransport has yet to be satisfactorily defined. It is therefore necessaryto conduct a comprahensive feasibility study which will establish theoptions for airport development in St. Vincent for the medium to longterm. While efforts are being made to mobilize external assistance forthis study, the Government should, in the interim, explore improvements tothe existing inter-island links between St. Vincent and both Barbados andSt. Lucia by the regional airline (LIAT) and other potential airlines. Asregards other infrastructure, especially in the Grenadines, the Government

2/ A transport sector review financed by the Inter-Agency Resident Missionhas recently been completed for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Thefindings of report will be included in an updating note that will beissued later on for consideration at the seventh Caribbean GroupMeeting.

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is Implementing with financial assistance from the CDB, a multi-purposeGrenadines infrastructure project, covering roads, jetties and watersupply. It is also trying to mobilize resources for the construction of a3,000 ft. airstrip in Bequia capable of accomodating inter-island typeaircraft.

C. Manufacturing

2.11 Because employment creation and export expansion are crucial toSt. Vincent's development, the recent emergence of enclave-type exportmanufacturing activities will probably be the most Important goal of theindustrial strategy of the country. Although the manufacturing sector isstill at an early stage of development (it contributed about 11% of GDP in1983), the range of commodities produced is extensive. They includeproduction of garments, metal products, sporting goods, electroniccomponents, building materials, furniture, packaging, and sugar, arrowroot,flour and food processing. The source of recent expansion, however, hasderived from external enclave manufacturing activities as the potential forthe development of domestic-oriented manufacturing activities isconstrained by the small size of the domestic market. Efforts should,however, be made to promote and sustain the growth of indigenous modernsmall-scale agro-based industries with the objective of achieving anacceptable ownership balance in the sector, not only to contain futurepotential political discontent but to promote the development of localentrepreneurial capacity.

Iasues and Objectives

2.12 Current Situation. Performance in the manufacturing sectorduring 1983 and early 1984 has been disappointiug although growth inindividual firms has differed widely. Some enclave activities experiencedrapid growth in 1983, vklle others, specially those in the production ofelectronic components, have experienced low capacity utilization as aresult of technological developments in the cable television industry inthe US. The latter highlights the vulnerability of small, island companiesto dramatic shifts in the demand for its products; although electroniccomponents and data processing activities are high growth oectors in theworld economy, they are also subject to rapid technological change andobsolescence. The country's industrial strategy should thus aim atdiversification rather than concentrating on relatively few high growthactivities which are subject to rapid technological change and variabilityin potential demand. The uncertainties surrounding CARICOK tradearrangements and the imposition of import licensing by Trinidad and Tobagoalso impacted negatively on some manufacturers in St. Vincent and theGrenadines. The Government should promote, along with other CARICOMgovernments, the establishment of industrial cooperation schemes in thecontext of CARICOM aimed at avoiding duplication which represents apotentially important element in the future growth of manufacturing exportsin the region.

2.13 The performance of import substituting manufacturing firms wasalso mixed during 1983 and early 1984. A number of firms with extremelylow capacity utilization has been able to operate mainly because of import

- 18 -

restrictions that confer on the local manufacturer a monopoly position. Aprincipal dilemma confronting the Government in shaping its import-substitution policy in the sector stems from the poor performance of mostof the domestic oriented firms in terms of capital efficiency and costcompetitiveness. A major issue for future government strategy is how toreduce the incentive gap between export and import sybstitutingmanufacturing activities without affecting the sector's composition ofinvestment. This can be achieved by tackling the problem from both sides;that is, reducing the amount of protection enjoyed by import-substitutingsectors and promoting export orientation for all firms.

2.14 Prospects. Investment promotion efforts in 1983 were lesssuccessful and, with the exception of a brewery, no new developments haveoccurred in the past eighteen months. The lack of factory space wasidentified as the main constraint. The prime reason for the shortage isthe lack of finance, which in part reflects the CDB's curtailment ofdisbursements to the Development Corporation (DEVCO) during FY83/84,because of policy disagreement between the two institutions. The issue hasbeen resolved and the CDB is providing financial assistance for theconstruction of a 30,000 sq.ft. factory space to be completed in early1985. The Government is receiving assistance from the Canadian Inter-national Development Agency (CIDA) both for the preparation of a feasibi-lity study for new industrial estate infrastructure and for financialassistance in the construction of new factory facilities. The policy ofsubsidized rental of factory space through DEVCO (factory space is rentedat EC$5-6 per square foot, considerably below commercial rates forcomparable facility) might discourage the use of private sector resourcesin this sector and should be carefully analysed for allocative efficiency.As part of its export development policy, the Government should continue toexplore alternative strategies and tools. An expansionary export policywould involve policies regarding investment incentives, financing, as welnas the provision of necessary infrastructural facilities.

Policies

2.15 Effects of Present Incentive System. The Ministry of Trade andAgriculture is responsible for the administration of fiscal incentives fornew investmentp under the Fiscal Incentives Harmonization Act of 1982. Theincentives conform to those available throughout the OECS, under theCARICO1 treaty. The major elements of the system are the customs tariff,import licensing and investment and export incentives. The combined effectof the present incentive measures and import restrictions on competingproducts which form part of the tax holiday and import duty exemptionpackage, is to build a bias in favor of production for the home market andimpose a penalty on the non-traditional export industries except for thefew enclave firms. It has thus encouraged high costs, inefficient use ofcapital and excess capacity such as the case of the local packagingcompany. It also penalizes the export producing sector which has to usehigh cost and relatively low quality intermediate inputs produceddomestically in their production process.

- 19 -

2.16 In addition to a careful review of the impact of the incentivesystem, greater efforts should be given to pre and post incentive appraisaland monitoring. This will not only ensure that appropriate industries areencouraged but also provide an ongoing assessment of the applicability ofthe incentive package. Any monitoring system will also require improve-ments in both the quality and quantity of manufacturing sector data whichpresently are very deficient. Furthermore, the export incentive systemshould be tied directly to export performance rather than the level ofinvestment cost or the quantity of imported inputs. Just as the generalinvestment incentives should not merely increase output but also raise itsdomestically generated value added, export incentives should seek to raisenot only the level of exports but also net export earnings.

2.17 Financing and Investment Promotion. The principal source offinance for local entrepreneurs seeking to establish new manufacturingundertakings is DEVCO, which also acts as the Government's industrialdevelopment agency. DEVCO's responsibilities are very broad, coveringindustrial development (directly or through equity participation),investment promotion, small industry and agricultural credit, students'loans, land development and farm improvement schemes. The agriculturalcredit function resulted from the absorption in 1982 of the Agriculturaland Cooperative Bank by DEVCO, a move with dubious advantages given DEVCO'sweak staffing position and extensive responsibilities. The Corporation isconstrained by a number of limitations that affects its ability to coversuch a wide range: (a) it is deficient in critical managerial andtechnical staff (extension officers and project appraisal personnel) whichhas affected its credit operations as reflected by the relatively largearrears, in excess of twelve months, on the total loans outstanding; and(b) its cash reserves are very low as its original equity capital wasmostly in the form of land vested in it by the Government; much of itsfunds available for loans are CDB's lines of credit and explains why itscredit operations were very low in FY83/84 following the suspension ofdisbursements by the CDB.

2.18 The CDB has provided the services of a financial controller andan industrial specialist, but more technical personnel are needed. Givenits present staff constraints, serious consideration should be given to areview of the structure and objectives of DEVCO with the view of limitingits scope of activities commensurate with its resources. A strong case canbe made for the continuation of its industrial promotion activities but itsfunctions with respect to students' loans, agricultural credit, and farmimprovements may be best delegated to other Government institutions. It isalso recommended that the Government should consider exploring othersources of finance for DEVCO as its financial constraints has limited itspromotional activities mainly to the construction of factory facilitiesthrough the CDB financial assistance.

2.19 Supporting Infrastructure and Personnel. The promotion ofmanufacturing activities in St. Vincent and the Grenadines is constrainedby limitations in infrastructural facilities mainly in energy andtransportation and in managerial personnel. Electric power load sheddingcontinues to disrupt production but the completion of VINLEC's

- 20 -

rehabilitation program (which includes the construction of the CumberlandHydroelectric Project) is expected to rectify this. Poor external accessand high freight rates are cited by many enclave industries as a limitationto future development. Shipping rates to and from St. Vincent and theGrenadines may only be addressed in a regional context given the relativelysmall volume of total freight involved. The Government is exploring theexpansion of the existing Arnos Vale airport to enable the use of largeraircraft (see para. 2.10).

2.20 A labor dispute in 1983, associated with an enclave manufacturingfirm and attributable to inappropriate management practices and therelatively industrial inexperience of the work force, highlights a numberof issues that might affect the growth of the enclave industry inSt. Vincent and the Grenadines. First, there is a shortage of localentrepreneurial and managerial talent, which inhibits the scope for jointventure activities with foreign investment and the use of this talent inmanufacturing operations. Furthermore, the level of understanding byforeign investors of local worker attitudes and sensitivities is oftendeficient. Finally, while foreign investors find the quality of laborrelatively good, they are obliged to undertake considerable in-servicetraining with its attendant high overhead costs because of the relativelyhigh migration of qualified personnel. Serious consideration should begiven to expand the training programs by the Labour Commission and theextension programs of the University of the West Indies to encompass thedevelopment of basic manufacturing skills (for school leavers and displacedworkers) and managerial practices. In-plant training programs developedjointly with firms already established in the country should be encouraged.

D. Administrative Reforms

2.21 Like most of the newly emerging independent countries in theCaribbean, the expanding role of the public sector has been a majordeparture from the policy of the colonial period which regarded the privatesector the principal engine of growth and confined the public sector to alimited, largely supporting role. The correction of this imbalance inSt. Vincent and the Grenadines has been gradual and some of theachievements to date may appear modest. Compared with the past, however,significant government involvement has been made in virtually allproductive sectors but not matched by the same progress in fiscal,financial and administrative reforms. The rapid expansion of publicinvestments in various economic and social sectors and the substantiallyhigher current outlays needed as public services improve will claimconsiderably more resources than in the past, place added burden onadministrative capability and require more government emphasis on trainingand on administrative and organizational improvements. The increasingimportance of the public sector has meant that the division ofresponsibilities among all levels of the administration will have to beclosely reviewed.

2.22 The Government is cognizant of the weaknesses of the system andin its FY82/83 Budget document indicated interest in the reorganization ofthe public sector in St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The Government has

- 21 -

requested technical assistance from the Public Sector Management andPlanning section of the OECS Economic Affairs Secretariat and the CaribbeanCentre for Development Administration (CARICAD). In February 1983, theOECS Economic Adviser and the CARICAD Adviser identified three areas fordetail evaluation:

(a) Reorganization of the Service Commission's Department includingthe Training Division, for which the CARICAD Adviser would be responsible;

(b) Comprehensive review of the tax system for which the OECSEconomic Adviser would assume responsibility; and

(c) Reorganization of the Ministry of Finance, Planning andDevelopment (MFPD) which would be undertaken as a joint exercise by boththe OECS and CARICAD Economic advisers.

It was felt that the reorganization of the MFPD, which is the key ministry,will serve as a model for the rest of the Central Government. A prelimi-nary proposal for the reorganization of the MFPD was submitted to theGovernment in mid-1983 and is under review.

Issues

2.23 Clarification of Functions. Despite the expanding role of thepublic sector and the associated expansion of its administrative functions,the respective roles of the various units have not yet been redefined.This has resulted in the duplication of functions and resource misalloca-tion in certain cases. There is also a lack of clarity about jobspecifications and respective roles of various levels of staff at theoperating level. The lack of clarity in the definition of job functionsmight have resulted from the expanded range of administrative functionsunaccompanied by a corresponding number of new staff. The problem has beencompounded by the shortagp of technical and managerial personnel so thattemporary arrangements have tended to be institutionalized resulting inill-defined job functions. It ia recommwnded that the role of variousadministrative units must be defined more precisely and actions taken toensure that implementation capacities are appropriate to assigned tasks.

2.24 Staffing and Training. The staffing problems are twofold: asubstantial shortage of technical/professional and senior personnelcompounded by a large number of low-level non-technical personnel whosesupervision needs are tremendous. The shortage of technical/professionalpersonnel has affected the capacity of the civil service to conductinvestigative reviews and associated follow-up; a gap that has always beenfilled by external technical advisors. The shortage of senior personnelhas also limited the delegation of authority with the negative Lmplicationthat junior and non-technical staff are unable to receive adequate super-vision and guidance and therefore have developed improper work habits andlack of motivation.

2.25 The short-term solution of the problem does not lie in salaryadjustments, apart from the negative impart that any salary increase wouldhave on the fragile finances of the public sector. The recommended

- 22 -

approach is the reorganization of the public sector aimed at eliminatingduplication (para. 2.22 above) and staff training and development. Withthe exception of the Customs and the Data Processing Departments, there areno formal arrangements for in-service training of public servants. Staffdevelopment efforts through the award of scholarships for advance studiesoutside St. Vincent and the Grenadines have yielded limited benefits to thepublic sector partly because of high costs and the failure of the benefi-ciaries to return to the public sector. It is recommended that trainingprograms envisioned under the Service Commission's Department be broadenedto make a maximum impact on middle-level managers, where the need isgreatest, as well as to provide lower level non-technical personnel withthe knowledge of the relevant administrative procedures of the civilservice (see para. 2.26 below). Such efforts would not only provide abetter quality of junior staff for promotion into the senior ranks, butwould also equip personnel to derive greater job satisfaction andproductivity.

2.26 Operational Procedures. The lack of coordination between various-tnistries and subsequent non-compliance and irregularities in operationalprocedures derive from the weak staffing situation of the public sector.The problem is compounded by the absence of any formal or informal proce-dures for consultation among the various heads of departments/ministriesfor familiarizing each other with matters critical to the public sector.The proposed restructuring of the public sector and clarification of rolesshould regularize operational procedures and improve coummnication.However, there is the need to familiarize and to insist on improvedcompliance by all staff (especially, accounting officers and clericalassistants) of operational procedures. This should help improve themonitoring and auditing role of the Ministry of Finance, Planning andDevelopment.

2.27 Delays in administrative decision-making are also partlyaccounted for by weaknesses in the operational procedures. There is theneed to improve the procedures for dealing with matters involving recommen-dations to cabinet on major issues of policy. An appropriate procedureshould involve a technical investigation of the issues along with specificrecommendations. The draft report should then be reviewed by the appropri-ate departments/ministries associated with the issue through formal orinformal mechanisms of consultation before being submitted to Cabinet forits consideration. The critical element of the procedure is timing and itis recommended that an appropriate time-scheduling framework should bedeveloped and implemented.

E. Government's Developement Priorities

2.28 During the writing of this report, a new Government ofSt. Vincent and the Grenadines was installed following a general electionon July 25, 1984. The new Government has indicated its desire to tacklethe principal policy issues discussed above in a speedy manner. Inparticular, it is committed to:

(i) strengthening the finances of the public sector by dealingwith the problems of the arrowroot and sugar industries and by undertakingnecessary administrative reforms;

- 23 -

(ii) encouraging the development of the private sector in theindustrialization process in an effort to reduce unemployment; and

(iii) pursuing sectoral policies in agriculture, tourism,infrastructure, health and education that are directed at acceleratingeconomic development in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The Government's intentions, while still in the process of formulation,appear to be in the right direction and should be encouraged.

Finances of the Public Sector

2.29 The new Government is committed to strengthen the finances of thepublic sector and has established a committee to examine the public sectorfinancing and indebtedness. In order to reduce the operating deficit ofthe non-financial public enterprices, the Government has indicated thatwith respect to the Arrowroot Industry Association, the policy strategyoutlined in para. 2.03 will be followed. With respect to the SugarIndustry Limited, it would seek a technical analysis of the industry tedetermine its future. In view of the adverse impact of the poor financesof the non-financial public enterprises on the operation of the NationalCommercial Bank, the Government proposes to strengthen it by requiring theNCB to adhere to commercial banking principles and practices, rather thanfunction as a 'quasi-government Central Bank.' It will, therefore, promotegreater autonomy and less government involvement in NCB's operations.

2.30 The Government is cognizant of the weakness of the administrativestructure. As a first step, the Ministry of Finance would be reorganizedto enhance its capacity to deal with the pivotal role it has to play inrevitalizing the economy and the development process in St. Vincent a-Id theGrenadines. Furthermore, as part of an overall administrative reform, allpublic sector organizations would be given clear guidelines and budgetwithin which they must operate. A committee to examine administrativereforms, among other things, is to be established.

Industrial Development

2.31 The Government has indicated that unemployment, especially amongthe youth and women, is the country's most serious problem. It is expectedthat the attraction of new investment, following the improvement in thelocal investment climate, will assist in reducing the level ofunemployment. In order to promote the industrialization process theGovernment intends to:

(i) revise the income tax act with the view to ease the burden onwage earners at all levels;

(ii) encourage private enterprise by concentrating governmentinvolvement only to the management of the economy and not directproduction. A code on foreign investment will be published; and

(iii) promote the growth of responsible trade unionism as well asthe development of the cooperative movement.

- 24 -

Sectoral Strategy

2.32 The Government recognizes that agriculture continues to be themain source of employment and income generation in St. Vincent and theGrenadines. In order to revitalize it, highest priority will be given toland reform in an effort to improve productivity. Emphasis will also beplaced in agriculture diversification through the development of new cropsand marketing avenues.

2.33 The promotion of the tourism sector along the lines suggested inpara. 2.09 above is envisaged. In this context, the Government intends toremove the administrative obstacles which affect visitor length of stay.With regard to the constraints posed by air transportation, the discussionon the feasibility of an international airport will be revived by theexecution of an adequate feasibility study for which assistance fromexternal donors is being sought. The Government also seeks externalassistance in the construction of an airport at Beguia. As part of aneffort to improve the climate for the development of tourism, theGovernment is committed to the development of Kingstown, the capital, in amanner that would enhance its aesthetic appearance. It also intends toencourage and coordinate cultural activities through the construction of aCentre for the Performing Arts.

2.34 The country's economic develcpment has been constrained by thelack of a well-developed physical and social infrastructure and theGovernment intends to develop relevant policies to overcome theseobstacles. With regard to energy, the Government intends to encourage thefull utilization of the country's hydro potential and alternative energyresources with the view to reduce its dependence on imported fuel. Effortswill be made to reorganize the administration for housing to facilitatelong term mortgage financing. On health, the Government subscribes to theconcept and practice of primary health care. Consequently, it intends toemphasize sanitation practices, preventative health, the provision of basichealth care in the rural areas, the continued improvement of the Kingstownhospital, and the promotion of self-reliance and community participation inhealth projects. It also intends to promote zero population growth throughits family planning program. As regards education, the Government willfocus on quality at all levels through improvements and expansion inphysical facilities.

- 25 -

ANNEX I

ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE LISTS

1. This annex contains a list of major ongoing projects, a list ofnew projects for FY84/85 and a list of technical assistance requirement forthe short and medium term period. A list of projects for which externalfinance will be sought during the period FY85/86 - FY89/90 and individualproject descriptions will be prepared separately for the CGCED meeting in1985. The lists contain the names of the projects, the executing agencies,the lenders/donors (if any), the total costs, the external financingobtained or required, and the periods for implementation of each project.

2. Data for these projects were prepared by the Government ofSt. Vincent and the Grenadines with assistance of the Bank mission. Anupdated project list will be issued at the subgroup meeting during theSeventh Caribbean Group Meeting.

- 26 -

Sr. VINEIM a llE iOn INES - slm e0 Pmos ECrS M 80111vS t FIsIasC

cmI000, e

Tosse we C - ltl -

Total Eatail Fimai leatlabt Artimation Gram C_mecit CeuIetloa

Ca" Amt _ Ro llb Priod Period l otr Date

oIsECnLY PoMcWrVE 1.1CTS

A4ricultw,. Forestry & Fislheie

Devlomt of Llvestck nintbry 41i 41n 100 EEt - - - 133 ISSiNS

Inpt Strp Focilltles 32 In2 100 UK - - - I12m 1MM3

_m Om l_~t Program V 11 lSt 100 UK - - - Doolng grope

rpSoy Fartilizr for ab a 10 103 10 UK - - - 16313V4 193S34

RNu etlos MrA Offices 13D - - - - - - 19111/2 IS1344

Heap. AMthurlm mgdPlnappl* Project 30 130 l UK - - - 1112A3 Ism5s

limatry

Industrial Esateb I 1,5t6 C 516 101, 03 7.5 1S 5 1151A32 191415

Coaolidtd lIe of credit 1,500 1,5C0 100 cm 4 IS 5 1113/84 1935136

SMOWJr.I IWPA5TUIMOIEE

Tr_asport tien

Rd Relubilitatlo Progreso 3.0S 2,5115 82 UKAi - - - 1233 1W345

Expansei Klngpem Herber 3,414 2,311 as CON, ClOt 7.5 1U 5 1911211 193l45

_c_r.nt of Electriclty

Supply I 3,3 30o0 3 3.5 tS 5 i12113 19134

Ediawtia

St.4t Lrns IV 3Y0 1 IC 0 4 is 5 1131A2 13SWS4

Health

Contructlin of 2 Hal tlb Canter. 5m 5U3 95 EC. US - - - 111B 111334

UpWrading KiUptwn9 aHpnltal 2,300 2.300 100 EC - - I93/82 191344

lbtr S"ly

water libteing 40 435 91 m 4 15 5 11323 193lW4

Otr

Clpi ID Feresre L Smar Syst_ 315 ao 7? UEA - - - 1132133 1934/

Velcne lbaltet g Umlt 70 513 65 15w - - - 113/3 195445

C lity DeuloPeI CM 14 1 95 li - - - 13213 199113A4

Mimies AIlstrative FwW33- E 10 100 100 CUDA - - - Oeeing prorw-

Micre Prjeti eb - SM S IC0 FM - - - O"golg preg-

peclII 0Golewant Activities

33 - own l a 140 I1O USAID - - - Ogoi'g pregie

Inns tors golde S 6 100 tK - - - 1114 Isom4

- 27 -

Sr. VI0IT N 1NE DUOIIES - NIOR PPOD PRDECTS 10 UIRCES OF FiN4CIIm (VS"I

cUSG 'oo10i

Tam &-d Coditlons Status

Total External Fl_ancing Interest Awtiw gram

Cost _umt S Snurm Rate tlen Period

Papat

IIECILY PR0WCrIVE PROJECTS

Agricul rtrw, Forestry nd Fletarloe

Input Rwolving Fund (bnmnH Instry) a0S 721 90 a. .. .. .. Project In prepard

lmna Dave Io put Progr 740 740 100 UK, um .. .. .. Continuation of tK-f In nod program

AgrIcultural Olwerelflmtlon & Pramtlon 1 2,500 2,500 100 USAID - - - Sector stud oeltedu project Is et

Inplentatien sbge

Industry

Industrial Estates V 3, 3,00 90 ODB 4 15 S Project nady for liaimntation

Chill Storpge Fclty a 90 .. .. .. Implmntation stapRum Dist lIery l,S50 1, 00 93 C8 .. .. .. llntatlen atoge

Craft O lopnt Prodection Unit .. .. .. ES - - li ntatlon stage

SU'PPTiNG INRASFROME

Transportatlen

WilndsrdHilgiemy II. III tO0 800 100 tK - - - Teciicall, c c And finncial

feasibillty stdy oapleetd

Armo Vale Airport lorovemnt 2,750 2,475 90 U .. .. .. Feasibility study pobleted

Agrleulture Feeder Road III 7,80 6,525 90 .. .. Redy for i nplntatin

Por Supply

laprove_nt of Electricity Supply II 2,2 2,000 90 C0B 4 Is 5 Equilpwnt meds upecifled

OVIA Mlirldre S tatIm 2 200 100 lK - - Strewlie studles

Hly*..eilctric Daveloent 33,100 24,600 74 IDA, CIOA, etc. .. .. ipnetation 1ep

OTIcK

star Supply A Serwerg

Wter DOve lonta Instal tlon of Motors 551 496 90 mo, U_n .. .. .. Project Is req fwr lepmentatlon

CeorpttmAyres water Supply Systam 600 500 100 Talen .. .. Iplntatlo stage

Education

Student Lans V SOD 500 100 0CB 4 15 5 Continuation of ongolng eCI_

NHom Eceonuca Extesion FacliIty .. . .. CIOAF -.. .. Inplntatln Stap

)"Ig

Wortpg" Fianec 2,S00 2,500 100 08 4 15 5 Contlmuetln of ongoing *ce

Ooere enw II 300 3100 100 Ut - - - Continuatlon of ongoing project

Admlnistrative Infrrtructwa

Purcues of PolIce Radlos 12 12 10 Ut - - - Eqeulpnt needs specified

- Not determind, not available

- 28 -

n.IiT g m f InNmlfIS - Wl1 WDU IGM AIIVAU MV INAIN1 P_n

_~~~~~~ar _ au, hurtl sf

Hlmlbpr of Flam.*, Plsamg * Ususl1=t

IwLAVISTS .1t lale s Scholarship £cI t5 Smral yawr

(I FelleshbI (Ecimlit - VKltl) 2 an yw_e

Stweet Lean CM Sevea ywar I4Wh6 ESIUMIG

SItIsmil Iraleleg Prorp aEEC Urel pel Varlea 41alpllas

Peel .1 ElMarb EMC laure yars VWr ie actesLesd Velatle Adviser i 2 pears seltbeb eatelm lob teA

Scilwr.ces Dvelopmtent Pleamimb, WII SeVerl peas iaclaidlg Civil tal rifpleat.aFIrmclel AmIySt so _a

E.,_'ot CeeAcleh EaertD

Project Developminena A earn Preri WAM eeal yea 1 rjet dmeve1 t ead Imvasmt

wi,tlea unew relgonl 1*110 PreJact

lotmltutlmol Stmgatam1g am pears A_ artiql NW flemlal _gmt.lMcetl Adelwar

form Laftreamal Olf lr

Inea Tom Advier CFTC I - 7w

_nqmr Piml_g 1 S - eetA

5 *_w Doe l_ut Plea VW 9 me _tha Cemlal Srvilese

WsScOulSPlbiP - CesASe ClO several paw Magical Project

Veleate Servles OGeree CM)2 uO(VO) sral pew,s Verlow ucbto

Pem Carpa USA Several pers Vrlew, sectors

almlsyz af Trade ea Awleslter

agr_mbat minM 2 ma pe 2 Agrnmista f1w _ paw easu

Vsbrir Splac WT tC 2 a ywr

Stramgtlaal at ofD _5 Ory tIc E - pw _mgmrNlun Pilet Projlet MTVlUl bgleasl prjct

=1l I am Gsms ltp14t 4CANMa2 WWIMIM 2 - peas IArs apfala W _ bchal tru,afsr

mad trailslg af __*alea aslf

Faang Slat= besede aid DeveIpt (CtIS) U iB S Yom Imludieg tie Serale ad CmdleWer*

UAID Apreaeta Pleat Pt?mblglall Peat

Eor ~~~~~~Haret _Tab,l_l

Hh,lsfry ad C~~~~,lcetIea.~I Sik,aandT Lehaw

0"6 ofIte Col t_tkntb, _bu _d I_

Feasibility S* - Nlse Cbectiricty Dele"put VW 1£ tla Coemptle ,et v4 estd J_r f"t

Ie*tl tutlml Str_qmav at OsearmFusslg Sd_ Ut 4 am years PrwislI fw mmr r ed eaglar far

2 mam pear eacdlaw Hminstr7y ad C_mnl#Atbe . Wrks

am La W5 Cmaotihs l1ger IT)DI

Chiel Eglelmer - 1A 1-m pear

Islitlnal atrt_alqg - Part Aeterily CIDA Seral yrea Tralilig

_rIt_m Tranluing Aselala CIDA _Uurel yaws bfil projecl

O pDe1Wt - Felblltltp Saq

ul1ml1st f Hotea

Spmealaglat ft I am perOleltret Ibdlir1 Offlaw PRAti I a low Cateoschl.lr

S1iar Itedlal Oflw UTC 2 am pers

"H Itel Aloelstroor Ua Soverl eyre

healS mad Peal lpPlemols llPA Soeva peas ReoaI erjct Imeladleg tr11g

Swemmt fseeJlg ad er lrabl Braie ,P SeveaI yarws lmclsdls m1abe In ld

FrEWly a" Pratltl3w Fregmen _ WIOf Sarm I peer agImal uejat

latItIAeml SUgt_Ing- D" Ms 2 am Xr rMgMmt - rEgl_msrlv lherw

vtsr tmrews - _bmeg t Dse lo_t UO3 Savwm I per. eqll prjoet

4l1^aty ad FiFale Affalir! TmwIl _d

bIlnal burSty

Talrs p tls Mc Ser I yaws

- 29 -

Sr. VIENT C M TrE TM UENIIEs - MUMR lEOiICtL ASSISrTME ItUIEJENi. 1911S

Sourc Duration Pmrks

I titetor DeWlo!I.t 11W Severs I yars Trandr of bknw 2w trog

Ematrlsts Natoloeml CUIBOOConabuctit Monitoring Unit 1NW 2 m, yars

Aricultural Planlng Unit UMW 2am ynr&

Wlnd and Solar Energy Assene t WO(TDJ) RIgill project

Torlom prouct dvenipat - btdy aJ Fesbillty osldy

Grefdins Multipurpose Project WB Fleaibility s1tdy

Airport davelopint CIWWOwn Minland St. Vincentg Feasibillty

Hydrological Nabom CIDA Dat cmlloct10

Tunra nrketing EC Including Promotlon ai Marketing

Services tectnical assitnc

Torln wwork plan aunkno

Hatel etaff training schm Setting V of tralning progrnin

Land tenre 11W

Edcatlmn Alnistrativw refom unknow

arno sparts Ut Several year Various sctars

Adult education and literacy progr_n u_n

Electrical Englmr udawn

insotittional strengthening of Arrorot

Assiation udsn

Joint nrtritimn qiport progran udkim

- 30 -ANNEX IIPage 1

ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS

1. In order to evaluate the prospects for the economy of St. Vincentand the Grenadines, flow-of-funds projections for 1984-1995 were made forthe principal macroeconomic variables. The base year chosen was 1982. Theanalysis concentrated on the important national income variables, theoperations of the public sector and the balance of payments. This annexreviews in detail the key assumptions employed in the economic projectionsand their implications for macroeconomic policy discussion for St. Vincentand the Grenadines.

Key Assumptions

2. Output and Expenditure. The projections for the overall growthof the economy were made on the following assumptions:

(a) The Government would undertake a vigorous crop diversificationprogram aimed at reducing reliance on arrowroot (for which future demant isuncertain) and bananas. The USAID financed Agriculture Diversificationproject (estimated at US$2.5 million) is directed at this objective. Inview of the inevitable slow adjustment by arrowroot farmers, growth in theagriculture sector will be gradual and average about 5% after 1986.

(b) Manufacturing output is projected to grow by 5% between 1985 and1995. Growth in 1984 will be modest (at about 1Z) as the slowdownexperienced in 1983 persists. The impetus for growth in 1985 will be thebrewery company which is currently under construction.

(c) Construction activities will be influenced significantly by theCumberland Hydroelectric Project, estimated to cost US$33.1 million over 5years. In addition, the CDB financed Agriculture Feeder Road projectestimated at US$7.2 million is expected to be under implementation. It isthus assumed that growth in construction will average 7% in 1985-87 anddecline thereafter to about 2.5% by the end of the period (1995).

(d) The service sector is expected to grow in line with the growth ofGDP. Higher growth rates are nevertheless projected for the period1985-1989 during the construction of the Cumberland Hydroelectric project.

3. SUvings-Investment Gap. Domestic savings have been very low inthe past. The economy has consequently relied heavily on. UK budgetaryassistance (which was phased out in 1980) and private remittances fromabroad to compensate for the lack of domestic savings. The flow fromforeign sources made possible the generation of positive gross nationalsavings which averaged about 20% of GDP during 1980-82. The projectionsassume that government policies will aim at substantial increases indomestic savings. Growth in public and private consumption is thereforeassused at 60% of the growth rate of GDP during the period. This willresult in a modest 1.2% growth in per capita consumption.

- 31 -ANNEX IIPage 2

4. The share of the public sector investment in total investmentoutlays is expected to remain relatively constant at 10-12% of GDP, exceptfor the period during the construction of the Cumberland HydroelectricProject when slightly higher ratios are projected. The national savings,although projected to be bouyant, will not be able to narrow thesavings-investment gap in the medium term. The savings-investment gap istherefore expected to widen up to 1989 and narrow thereafter as thebenefits of the previous heavy investment program materialize.

5. Public Sector Finances. On the basis of policies aimed atreducing the operating deficits of the non-financial public enterprises,the public sector finances are projected to improve. It is assumed that by1988, the finances of the two public enterprises with considerabledeficits, the Sugar Industry Ltd. and the Arrowroot Industry Association,would improve so that the nonfinancial enterprises would exhibit positivesavings thereafter. Public savings are expected to grow steadily,averaging about 4% of GDP. Revenues are assumed to maintain the samegrowth as GDP, with slight decline expected after 1988 following theslowdown of project related imports. Public sector current expendituresare projected to grow less rapidly than revenues as expenditure controlpolicies are implemented.

6. A central feature of the analysis for the public sector is tominimize public sector use of resources from the domestic banklng system.External financing would thus be needed to support the high public sectorinvestment program (PSIP). Given the levels of public sector savingsprojected for the period, it is assumed that the proportion of externalresources necessary to support the PSIP will decline from 75% in 1983 to45% in 1995.

7. External Sector. The balance of payments (BOP) is projected toimprove in the long-term period. In the short- and medium-term period,sharp increases in project related imports, not matched by similar levelsof exports, will result in sharp deterioration in the BOP during1985-1988. The deficit in the BOP current account is projected to declinefrom 13X of GDP in 1982 to 9Z in 1995. Exports are projected to increaseby about 5% p.a. during 1985-1995, mainly from growth in agricultureexports (at the latter part of the period) and enclave manufacturing.

8. It is assumed that St. Vincent and the Grenadines will be able tocontinue mobilizing external resources largely on concessionary termsthrougb bilateral agencies. Private sector external capital inflows arehowever assumed to play an important role in the future. By 1995, it isassumed that private capital inflow will finance about 40% of the currentaccount deficit of the BOP as grant resources decline in absolute terms.Despite the size of the projected external inflows, interest payments areprojected to increase gradually and thus, the debt service as a ratio ofexports and non-factor goods is expected to remain low.

- 32 -ANNEX IIPage 3

Policy Implicaticns

9. The assumptions employed in 'nk5"1 " the projections highlight thetypes of policies that are necessary to maintain a modest growth inSt. Vincent and the Grenadines. A key consideration is the expansion ofnon-traditional agriculture through crop diversification. At the moment,the economy depends heavily on the exports of bananas (the prime commodityby a large margin), arrowroot, and to a limited extent on sweet potatoes,ground provisions, spices, vegetables aud some specialty crops (exportedmainly to the Caribbeau). Sugar was reintroduced in 1980 with theintention of meeting domestic demand. On the basis of uncertaintiesregarding the future demand for bananas and arrowroot (St. Vincent'scompetitive position for arrowroot has eroded since 1982), the projectionsassumed no growth for both commodities. Export growth in agriculture,therefore, would depend largely on the increase in the volume of othercrops and hence, the need to intensify the agriculture diversificationprogram. The policy issues requiring urgent attention in order to promoteagriculture diversification include (in order of priority) marketing,extension services, credit and land tenure. These issues have beendiscussed extensively in previous economic memoranda.

10. Equally important are policies to reduce the operating deficit ofthe nonfinancial public enterprises (as discussed in paras. 1.05-1.06 inthe main text) and to improve public sector savings. In the lattercontext, efforts at public sector expenditure controls including wagerestraints should be pursued. The exercise of restraint in publicconsumption, hopefully to be followed by the rest of the economy, shouldhelp improve domestic savings and thus reduce the economy's inordinatereliance on the external sector for financing its investment program.Furthermore, imprQvemeats in tax structure and administration, as noted inprevious economic memoranda, are needed. The heavy reliance on indirecttaxation (on goods and services, international trade and others) instead ofsales taxation makes the present tax structure inflexible with negativeimplications for production and consumption. The feasibility andsuitability of introducing a general sales tax to replace or complement thepresent wide range of indirect taxes (characterized by high and diverserates) should receive goverument's future attention.

- 33 -

33~~~~~~~~~~3

JWA li

AciuL AD P D Ew n4 c

CM dill". costot IOU2 p3mm

___ Pajelm1u2 nos 1 s INS ts m sm ts 1m MNt s2 13 1ng no

ArkIWlm 2.5 30.5 V. 31.7 3ll 3. 36.7 MA 4D.5 25 44.1 46. 0.2 51.2_lqfaci3g .?7 21.5 ZI. 2D.5 15 as3 .5 S.5 215 3A 3.5 MA I2a 3D.5CtInh tl- 3A 3.3 2.S S.2 .S 30.10 MJ3. M1 323 34.1 35. 3.S 37.6 30.15w1m I.4 119.2 m. WDA 13a2 HIs 147.0 14 1.7 11 113.S 8J 15.6 ISSJ

w CFmctmr COMO 1s. 134.5 is" 30. 213.1 23.3 23.3 D .1 20.6 271.7 23L? Ma 307.0 313.6tolmet T_r

I_m Satlm 31.0 3ADJ *J 41.5 40J 4.3 45.1 IA 5Z.3 54.4 967 3.2 61A 64.0

rW Cmbt Prm)e 23.3 235S 23. 24 2. 217.2 35.0 30.1 31. =.1 35L3 36.4 33. 3.

ilr Tjust 0.0 7.5 10.5 11.0 33 8.3 7. 7.0 5.9 3.7 1.7 0.0 -IA -2.1

Grom oatic _m 22.5 211.1 25. 25. 2724 35.5 35. 301.1 31a 32IJ 341.7 35.4 35.1 311.1

Imwt of one" WS 141.5 1 71 173.1 M" 113.5 30.4 MI. 217.2 s.7 2.7 217.2 254.3 23.7

Caaci ty b to_irt 141.5 174.2 1. 0 15.3 2015 330 215.1 231 ZD. D a 2a71 257.0 257.lapets oc Sm .1 53.4 2M.2 51.1 N. 213.4 20A 23.7 23. 303.0 315.1 325. 337.5 3.

-1ns Eugil ts 23. 33.2 27.3 _JtAD 360.0 37.1 38.2 31.7 35.0 M 47.3 432.7 44. 462.7

Immflmt FimC u.S 137 4.2 ai *1.5 *7. 32.4 5.1 V. D O1.1 105.4 IJ 314.5 115."

P6011. D S 3 Z. 3. 31.5 415 44< 42 .J <Z37 30.1 O5A 42.5 44.S 4C0Pr_mmb 4.0 SDJ 4L4 47.4 SA SW.7 567 D.0 3O.4 O. GSA 17.3 o0.2 72

Clup 1 lm t. 1.5 0. 0.0 0.0 0. 0D 05 0.0 0.0 0e .0 0.0 0.0 0.0

C.otl3 23. 215A 21.1 60.7 2365 30.0 20. 3.6 231.0 31.J O111 3oJ I 34.1 43PaIk. 51.7 3. 54. S .D 57.SJ 3.7 6i MA 64.2 5. 67.5 O .3 71.0 72.7Plu1mIw 11.3 1A. 1 I.7 l307 X5 3.7 216.3 3.5 2 201.4 253.1 33.1 11.2

-'mtk &wis N1 34. 10.7 3 4.S 17.2 17.2 20A 21.3 2. 3.0 315 3.3 30.3

Faeh S.Zkae lomm .4J 41 I4_ -S1 4.0 4 45 4.0 4.9 O4.2 4 .4 46.7 -7.0 -713

C_at Trawl 3.2 41<. 3.5 33. 3.3 37.7 30.2 40. 42. 44.4 4.3 4.2 50.5 5S.

blmi_ Smwl 30.2 5a. 3.1 37.7 DJ .3 .5 3.I S.4 sas O. 17. 73.0 75.1 34.7P 213.0 231 24.7 204.5 257.0 270.7 2at.? 2. 2. J 3J5 3DS. 347.7 32. 311.4

mmIon CS)3Sw.sbm~ 314 34. 3.0 3NA 34.6 3.2 3D. 3L. 3 1.0 31. 31.0 31.0 31.0

tIlmi bwI 15. W 1 1I.I 15.1 11.5 17. 173, 1li 31.7 13.' ;0.0 Do. 2113 22.1

aiPr h .. 4.1 21 4. 5.4 5.4 3.3 44 4.2 4 .2 4 .2 4.2 4 43 3.

am, 13

Table 2ACTUA. me PMECE WIMLIC UCT06 FiNmCS

(101 mIIIon, conabnt 1382 prlceas

MItal Proelcted

1902 11 164 18 16" 197 lt 19"6 1990 1911 1112 11 1914 11195

Central Ceoraunt

Cwrmat Rb"nus 70.5 78.4 65.7 13.2 107.0 12000 1343 1504 166.2 1836 202.1 224.2 247.6 M27

Tas 62.5 S. .7 2.3 145 I06.0 11.6 132.3 146.8 162.2 179.2 156.I 2186. 240.1

Mm Taxe 6.0 1.3 10.0 tos. 12.5 14.0 IS.7 17.6 19.4 21.4 23.7 X.2 Xs. 31.6

tCareet !Eendl Wm 65.6 74.1 61 I1.? 103.2 116.1 12S.5 1428 155,2 166.7 63.3 I3.3 216.6 234.1Wgse ad SalarIes 11.7 56 40.0 44 MA 56.? 60.3 65.7 75.8 62.4 SS.5 7.3 1056. 114.7Goas and Sarvlc4I 24A 26.0 2S60 31.4 1.s3 11.7 44.3 48a "so 57.7 6.7 660.1 74.1 60.3

OtMr 10.1 12., 1S 15.6 1765 19.7 22.0 24,2 26.3 2X. 31.1 33.8 sa .1

Contral vwrernnt Saving 4.3 4.3 3.8 1.5 3.1 39 4.7 7.7 11.0 IS.0 193C 26.0 31.2 37.6

Social Security Saving 4.2 53 .7 7.0 7,5 63 S3l 3.7 10 10,9 II, 12.3 13.0 134Parestatal Saving 464 -54, -G6 -560 -3.0 *1.9 0.0 10 1.5 2.0 3.0 4,0 5.0 6,0PuAlle Setef SavIlns 2.3 38 303 34 6.5 11.2 134 16.4 22.9 n.s 34.2 41.J 49.2 57.7Capital ExpeWdibres 21A a14 26A 11.4 53.3 62.1 65,1 6491 63.2 72.l 73,7 66.0 97.3 107.1

OVULL. PU.IC EC0R0 OIFICIT -2.3 -16.6 -21.9 -35.1 -44.6 -51.6 -51.3 -4.7 -42.4 -4.4 -4.s5 -46.8 -4.I -4.4

Elternal FinancIng 214 16.2 6.a 30.8 40.8 4U.1 4J 43.2 40. 42.7 44S 46J 48.1 4.4Oametlt Elnncing 4.3 0.4 s.l So *.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 I.S 1.0 o.s 0.0 0,0

M I t

Ratleo to OIW (3)

Pa*lc Savings 1.0 IA I'S 1.2 245 2.9 3.1 3.7 4.2 4,7 5.2 5A 6.1 6.5

bimral Gowt. Savings 2.2 IS$ I.S OS 1.1 1,0 1,1 1IA 2.0 2.5 30o 3.4 34 4.2Perastalal Savlin -3.0 -2,4 -24 -1,7 -0.9 -0.3 0.0 0,2 03 0.3 OS 0,5 0.6 0,7Soclal Seewity Savin. 1.9 2.2 2A 2.4 2J 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 164 1.5O,rael Govt. Goern 31.5 32.1 33,2 31.7 31.7 30,9 3046 304C 3046 30A 3046 3046 304 30A

Tu RAenue 27.3 20. 3.3 23.0 26.0 273 27.0 27.0 27.0 2.0 27.. n70 27.0 7.0

Scures: I4iulon *atlntas.

Ihy 1964

AMC 11

Table 3

M1. AM PfJCTD BWLMW OF PATIOTS

(1 13$ milion

Aitti Proljcted

1St2 IM8 164 IM6 IS66 1957 1968 19 M IM M991 19S2 1993 I94 ISS

Exprts WS 52.4 2.4 t6.3 75.4 85. S6.5 106.1 121.6 134IS 145.7 166.0 153.9 203.7 225.2Werts OWlS 74.3 2.2 tS.2 9S6A 114.9 131.0 146.8 160.4 176.7 If.9 21.5A 242.1 267.5 214.0

Reaowce Belanc -11.39 -0no -17.3 -24.2 -29.5 -34.5 -38.0 -31.8 -41.8 -47.2 -52.6 -8.2 46.3 48.9

1et Factor Inc. Pywut. -IA -1.5 -IA -2.2 -2.9 -3.3 -3C -3.8 -3.8 -42 -4.7 -5.2 -.57 4.3

lntareatAPuAlIc Debt .0.6 -0.4 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.5 -2.7 -3.0 -3.3 -3.7 -4.00Othr -1.2 -05 -0.5 -0.7 -O. -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.S -1.7 *IA -2.0 -2.2

Trans'er 123 16.0 1s.0 14.A 17.0 IS.S 22.1 24.6 27.4 30.3 W.S 37.0 408 45.0

Currat Accont B lam -11.4 -6.4 -6.5 -11.6 -15.4 -18.3 -19.4 *17.6 -18.2 -21.1 -23.9 -26.4 -2.7 -30.2

Public Capital (net) 3 6.0 6.2 11.5 IS.1 17.6 17.9 160 15.0 IsA 16.5 17.1 17.5 18.3Grant& 53 3.4 3.S 3. 4.2 4.5 5.0 5.3 4.2 3.4 2.7 2.1 1.7 13

on OIdbura.unts 3.8 33 3.7 6.3 9A lI.S 11.0 6.1 J 10t6 12.1 13.3 14.2 1S.IAmrtizatlon -OA -0.7 -1 .0 -13 -1.S -1.7 -1.5 -Idw -1.9 -1I. -1.7 1.7 -1.9 -1.9

Private Capital (ne) S.1 0.4 0. 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.5 1.6 33 5.3 7.4 9.3 10.l 11.9

14M It. Is)IOP Current Acount/IP -13.8 -7.1 -6C -10.7 -12.3 -12.8 -11.S -9.7 -9.1 4.5 -9.17 -. 7 -5 a -9.1Debt SrvliceEqorts OWS 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.7 4.1 3.8 40 3t5 3 3.0 2.A 2.7 2.7 2.6

Soarels Misslan atinmas, ba"d on attacllnts I and 2.

May 1384

kffX 11

Table 3

Attaccmnt IPROJEC1E wATS OF MIS

(US$ II Ion)

A _twi Projected

1902 1S03 6194 1965 196 1967 1SS IM9 I30 1911 1992 9 M3 3904 1995

Yoluw Cmiilem lb.) 25.0 n.3 20.5 30.00 300 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 m0.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0value 910 9S6 10.3 l0ss 10.6 10.0 t0.S 10.0 10.5 10.0 10.0 10.6 10.0 IO0 Q

FleurVolm (mlillon lb.) 25.7 24.3 25.2 3.3 27.3 2.4 29.5 30.7 32.0 33.2 34.6 3.O 37.4 36.9Value 5.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.6

Othur Agriculture 42 7.4 7.4 7.7 S.0 6.4 6.9 9.3 9.6 10.3 10.0 11.3 11.9 12.4Other 15.5 20.9 21.1 22.P 22.8 237 24.7 2.7 26Ha 28.0 29.2 30.5 31.5 33.3TOTAL ER1 £ANIlS 34.3 42.0 43.7 45.5 47.0 46.5 50.1 51.7 53.6 55.5 57.5 5.6 61 . 64.0Non Factor ServIees 16s1 16a I I9 20d0 21.9 23.0 24.1 25.3 26 A 24.5 30.2 32.0 33.S 3.5S9EM0RTS ClS 52.4 61.7 63S.5 66.3 68.0 71.5 74.2 77.1 0.4 6.O 117.7 9.6 95.7 99.9

Exprt Price IndIlee

bananas 100.0 9S6 109.06 111.0 116.2 121.4 126.6 131.0 116.1 142.0 147.9 153S 13.7 165saFlow 100.0 SS.4 100.0 96A 114.6 130.4 146.2 162.0 177.6 169OS 21.5 213.5 22.0 237.7Other Agriculture 100.0 97d 114.9 119.5 132.4 145.3 155.2 171.1 163.S 196.4 212.9 227.4 2419S 25C.3Other I00.0 9N0 tOles 110.0 119.9 130A 142.4 153.1 162.3 172.0 1U.3 13.3 2U4.9 217.2Total Merchendlee 100.0 S7.0 105.7 10OA 120.6 131.1 142.2 152.9 162.7 173m1 163.9 1950 20.6 216.5Non Factor Services 100.0 107.9 111.5 120.4 131.3 143. 155.S9 16s 176.7 IU.4 1S9.7 211.6 224.3 237.6EWRT MS 100.0 101.0 107.5 113.7 124.0 135.0 146.7 157.6 167.7 170.3 169.3 2CO t 212.9 225.4

Exports (Curront Value)

ennes 9.0 9.7 11.2 12.0 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.7 IS.3 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.9flow 5.6 4.5 4.9 5.0 6.1 7.2 8.4 9.7 11.0 12.3 13.S 14.9 16.4 16.0Other AgrIculture 4.2 7.2 8S. 9.2 10.6 12.3 14.0 IS.S 16.0 3.4 22.9 25.7 26.7 51.7Other 15.5 20.0 21.5 24.1 27.4 31.0 35.2 39.3 435 46.1 53.3 3S.0 65.3 72.2Total narchndl"s 34.3 42.O 46.2 50.3 56.6 63.6 71.2 79.1 67.2 96.1 105.7 116.2 127.6 139.7Non Factor Services I6.1 20.4 22.1 25.1 25.7 32.S9 5.A 42.5 7.7 53.6 60.2 67.7 76.0 65.4EWRT WS 52.4 62.4 66.3 75.4 65.3 96.5 106.9 121.6 134.9 N4W.7 166.0 Wa.9 203.7 225.2

M4ay 1954

Table 3

Attachint 2

PROJElCD BIMPRIS Of GMl

(USS mlIIIon?

Actal Projected

1942 1963 I"4 116S 1946 I81 Ils" 199 1990 11"1 1992 199 1994 1995

Food 2X*6 21.3 21.7 22.4 23.3 24.2 25.0 25.7 26.6 27.4 2l.3 29.2 30.1 31.0

Coneuur hnufactures 10.6 19.5 19.9 20.5 21.4 22.2 22.9 236 24.4 25.1 259 26.7 27A 25.4Fuels 5.1 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.7 .0 80.2

CFtiaicalaffartlllzers 6.5 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.7 81 6.5 9.0 9*4 9.9 1004 10.9 11.4 119Raw lbtarlals 2.3 3.7 3.4 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4Capital GOOd 10.5 16.2 13.8 19.0 20.3 21.0 21.0 19.2 19.4 20.2 21.1 22.0 22.9 23.8Total M.rchlindls 63.6 73.5 72.0 79n1 622.1 s62 88.3 86.8 91.3 94.6 96.0 101.6 105.2 106.6Non Factor Servlces 10.7 123 13.2 13.9 14.4 15.0 15. 16.3 161S 176 18.3 19.0 1943 20.6

wRrs aOs 74.3 66.1 65.2 93.0 97.4 101.2 103.9 105.1 1083 112.2 116.3 120.6 125.0 129.2

hport Price Indices

Food 100.0 97.14 10.4 109.6 12338 136.0 152.2 166.4 161.0 195.0 209.0 223. 257.0 25.2Conaurr Manufactures 100.0 97.3 IOO5 10U 118.3 129.0 140*6 151.1 160.2 169.8 iso.o 190.8 202.2 214.4Fuels 100.0 96.0 96.0 100.0 109.4 IIOJ. 125.2 137A 147.1 165.9 184.7 203.5 222.3 240.9

ChemIcalesIertilzaers 100.0 W7s 99.3 101.0 110.2 119.4 16.6 137.8 147.1 165.9 184.7 203.5 222.3 240.9

Rw Materials 100.0 97. 10.4 109.C 123A 13.0 1522 166.4 1l81A 195.0 209.0 223.0 237.0 251.2

Capital oods 100.0 97.3 100.5 IO. 118.3 129.0 140.6 151.1 160.2 1693 180.0 1so.s 202.2 214.4Total Merchsndls 100.0 97.3 10139 107.6 11867 130.3 142.4 153.9 164.9 177.7 190.7 204.0 217C 2313Won Factor ServIces 100.0 93.7 96.6 1045 113.19 124.2 135.4 145.5 154.3 163.5 173.3 IU.7 194.8 2D6.4

IWOlRTS UFS 100.0 96.7 101.1 107.1 116.0 129.4 141.3 152.6 163.3 175.4 167.9 200.8 214.0 227.6

Imports (Currant Valuea

Food 20.6 20.7 22.8 243 25.9 33.5 RO. 42.6 46*1 53.4 9Se1 65.1 71.4 77.3Conr 14nufacturce 18.6 19.0 20.0 22.3 25.3 28.7 32.2 35.7 39.0 42.7 46.7 51.0 5503 609Fuels S.l 5.4 SA 5.9 6.7 7.6 8*4 9.4 103 12.0 13. 15.7 17.7 1917

ChmleCalaFartillzars 6.5 6.9 7.1 7.4 as 9.7 11.0 12A4 13.8 16.4 19.2 22.2 25.4 21.7Raw MaterIals 2.3 3.6 4.0 4.3 S.0 SA 6.6 7.4 8.4 9.3 10.3 11 3 12.4 13.5Capital 0God 10.5 IS18 13.9 20.6 24.0 27.1 29.5 29.1 311 34.3 37. 41.9 46.3 S1.OTotal Murchandis 63.6 71.4 73.4 65.1 9S.4 112.: 125.7 136.7 150.7 168.1 166.9 207.2 229.0 251.6NIon Factor Services 10.7 11.0 12.8 14 S 16.5 16.7 21.2 23.7 26.1 20.7 31.7 34.9 38S 42.4

IwoRS ifs 74.3 85.2 86.2 19.6 114.9 131.0 146.8 160A4 176.7 116.9 218.6 242.1 267.5 294.0

- 38 -

ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table of Contents

Standard Tables

1. National Accounts Summary in EC$ at Current Prices2. National Accounts Summery in US$ at Constant Prices3. Balance of Payments in US$ at Current Prices

I. Population

1.1 Selected Vital Statistics

II. National Accounts

2.1 Sectoral Origin of Gross Domestic Product at Current FactorCost

2.2 Sectoral Origin of Gross Domestic Product at Constant 1977Factor Cost

2.3 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product at Current Prices2.4 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product at Constant 1977 Prices2.5 GDP Deflators

III. Balance of Payments

3.1 Balance of Payments3.2 Merchandise Imports (C.I.F.) by End-Use Category3.3 Value, Volume and Unit Price of Major Exports3.4 Terms of Trade3.5 Directiou of Trade

IV. External Debt

4.1 External Public Debt Outstanding Including Undisbursed4.2 Service Payments, Commitments, Disbursements and

Outstanding Amounts of External Public Debt4.3 Structure and Terms of External Public Debt

V. Public Sector Finances

5.1 Central Government Current Expenditures5.2 Central Government Current Revenue5.3 Central Government Operations5.4 Summary Operation of the General Government5.5 Sunnary Operation of Public Sector Nonfinancial Enterprises5.6 Summery Accounts of the Public Sector5.7 Financing of Public Sector Investment

- 39 -

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table of Contents (Cont'd)

V. Public Sector Finances (Concluded)

5.8 Public Sector Investment Program, 1982/83-1984/855.9 Proposed New Projects, 1984/855.10 Summary of Public Sector Capital Expenditures by Sectors5.11 Summery of Public Sector Investment Program by Sources of

Financing

VI. Money and Banking

6.1 Consolidated Commercial Bank Operations6.2 The Foreign Commercial Bank Operations6.3 The National Co ercial Bank Operations6.4 Distribution of Comercial Bank Loans and Advances to the

Private Sector6.5 Interest Rate Structure6.6 Eastera Caribbean Central Bank

VII. Agriculture, Tourism and Other Sectors

7.1 Estimated Production of Major Commodities7.2 Selected Tourism Data7.3 Total Visitor Arrivals By Month7.4 Total Visitor Arrivals By First Port of Entry7.5 Generation and Sales of Electricity7.6 Fuel Consumption

VIII. Prices

8.1 Consumer Price Index (Old Series)8.2 Consumer Price Index (New Series)8.3 Prices of Gasoline, Diesel and Kerosine8.4 Wages of Selected Occupation at Bottlers Ltd.8.5 Exchange Rate Movements

- 40 -

Table 1. ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS SUMMARY

(ECS Million at Current Prices)

1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1963

1. gross omnestic Product 94.0 122.1 140.1 158.4 197.0 223.8 244.2

2. Resource Cap Co - z) 41.1 25.2 51.5 66.1 47.2 59.1 56.1

3. Imports Cg + sfc) 55.9 104.0 140.1 170.9 17B.7 200.6 224.6

4. Experts Cg + nta) 44.5 78.6 88.6 104.8 131.5 141.S 166S.S

S. Total Expenditures Cc I) 135.1 147.3 191.6 224.2 244.2 282.9 300.3

S. Consumption 105.6 119.5 142.6 161.2 178.7 213.0 220.8

7. Public 23.1 29.5 33.6 37.7 44.9 51.7 56.9

s. Private 65.5 90.0 109.2 123.S 133.8 161.3 163.9

9. Investment 26.5 27.8 48.8 63.0 65.5 69.9 79.5

10. Fixed Investment 23.9 25.9 44.4 57.3 59.S 63.5 72.7

li. Cbanges In stock 2.6 1.9 4.4 5.7 6.0 6.4 6.6

12. Domestic Saving (1 - 6) -14.6 2.6 -2.7 -3.1 18.3 10.6 23.4

13. Net Factor Income - - -1.6 -2.4 -1.9 -4.6 -4.3

14. Net Current Trensfers 23.5 25.1 35.9 32.9 32.7 33.2 41.0

15. National Saving (12 + 13 4 14) 6.9 27.7 31.6 27.4 49.1 39.2 60.1

Average Exchange Ret.s

16. ECS per USS 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

- 41 -

Table 2i ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS SUMMARY

(Millions of USS at Constant 1977 Prices)

1917 1976 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

1. Gross Domestic Product 34 .8 39.1 40.5 42.3 46.1 47.4 49.4

2. Tur-.s of Trade Effect - - -1.0 -Z-8 -2.5 -2.0 -0.7

3. Gross Domestic Income 34.8 59.1 39.5 39.5 43.6 45.4 48.7

4. Resource Cap (S - 6) 15.2 8.7 15.0 15.7 10.6 13.4 13.2

S. Imports (9 + nHf) 31.8 35.8 40.9 40.5 40.0 45.5 52.7

6. Cepmcity to Import 16.6 27.1 25.9 24.1 29.4 32.1 39.5

7. Exports (g + nf&) 16.6 27.1 26.9 27.6 31.9 34.1 40.2

8. Totol ExpendItures 50.0 48.3 54.6 55.2 54.2 58.8 61.9

9. Consumption 40.2 39.8 40.3 40.1 39.5 43.2 43.9

10. Publlc 8.6 9.1 9.2 10.4 10.1 10.2 10.6

II1. PrIvate 31.6 30.0 31.1 29.7 29.4 33.0 33.3

2. Investment 9.8 8.5 14.3 15.1 14.7 15.6 11.0

13. Fixed Investment 8.9 7.9 13.0 13.7 13.4 14.2 16.4

14. Changes In Stock 0.9 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.6

IS. Domestic Saving C3 - 9) -5.4 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 4.1 2.2 4.8

16. Net Factor Income - - -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -1.0 -1.0

1 7. Not Current Transfer. 8.7 8.6 10.0 8.1 7.0 7.2 9.9

18. National Savings CIS 16 6 17) 3 .3 8.1 8.8 6.9 10.7 8.4 13.7

Local Currency Deflators (1977-100)

19. Gross Domestic Product 100.0 115.7 128.1 138.3 158.1 179.8 182.9

20. Imports (g + nfs) 100.0 107.5 126.7 156.4 165.5 163.2 157.8

21. Exports (g + nls) 100.0 107.9 122.0 140.7 152.6 153.6 155.2

22. Total Expenditures 100.0 113.1 130.3 149.9 166.9 179.2 181.7

23. Public Consumption 100.0 111.3 134.9 134.6 164.5 188.0 199.0

24. Private Consumption 100.0 111.1 130.2 153.8 168.3 180.8 182.1

25. Fixed Investment 100.0 120.7 126.4 154.4 165.4 166.0 163.6

26. Changes In Stocks 100.0 120.7 126.4 154.4 165.4 166.0 163.6

27. Factor Income and Transfers 100.0 105.6 133.3 IS1.0 172.7 171.4 153.5

28. Exchange Rate Indoxi US Cent/ECS 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Current price EC$ date In Tablo I oere converted to constant 1977 dollars using the local

currency deflstors shown In lines 19-28 and the exchange rate Index. In the absence of

Individual deflators for fixed Investment and changes In stock, tho gonernl Invostment Index Is used

for both.

- 42 -

fable 3, ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

IUSS NiIIlon-Current Prices)

1977 1978 1979 1980 1,11 1982 1983

1. Exports (g + nt*) 16.6 29.2 32.38 38.8 48.7 52.4 62.4

2. MerchandIse tt.o.b.) 10.7 18.1 19.1 21.1 29.8 34.3 42.0

3. Nonfacter Services 5.9 11.1 13.7 17.7 18.9 18.1 20.4

4. Imports CS *4 at) 31.S 38.5 51.9 63.3 66.2 74.3 83.2

5. Merchandise (c.l.f.) 30.3 36.2 46.3 57.1 58.2 63.6 71.4

6. Nonfector Services 1.5 2.3 5.6 6.2 8.0 10.7 11.8

7. Resource Balance (I - 4) -15.2 -9.3 -19.1 -24.5 -17.S -21.9 -20.8

8. Net Factor Income - - -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 -1.8 -1.6

9. Factor Receipts n.s. n.e. 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.3

10. Factor Payments n.e. n.*. 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.9 2.9

iI. (N A LT Interest Paid) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9

12. Net Current Transfer# 8.7 9.3 13.3 12.2 12.1 12.3 15.2

13. Transfer Receipts n.e. n.m. 18.6 20.0 21.2 20.5 23.6

14. Transfer Psyments n.s. n.e. 5.3 7.6 9.1 8.3 8.4

IS. Current Balance (7 + 8 # 12) -6.5 - -6.4 -13.2 -6.1 -11.4 -7.2

M & LT CAPITAL INFLOW

16. Direct Investment 2.9 -1.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.6 3.0

17. Officlal Grent Aid 2.4 2.7 2.8 3.9 5.3 5.3 4.2

18. Foreign Borrowing (net) 0.8 1.1 2.2 4.4 2.7 2.3 2.6

19. Dlsburse teets 0.6 1.1 2.3 4.6 3.2 2.6 3.3

20. Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 O.S O.S 0.7

21. Other N & LT (net) - - - - 09 0.4 0.3

22. Net Credit from IMF - - - 0.7 1.8 - -

23. Disbursements - - - 0.7 1.8 - -

24. Repayments - - - - - -

25. Net Short Term Cepital 2.1 0.1 -2.1 1.6 2.0 6.4 -1.4

26. Capital Flown NEI n.e. n.e. n.o. n.e. n.s. n.s. n.e

27. Errors and Omissions -1.2 -3.1 3.1 1.7 2.0 3.9 -1.3

28. Change In Not Reserves

t- Indicates increase) -0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2

Table l.ei ST. VINMNT S 1£ IFIEWAI - ECIED VITAL STATISTICS

1971 Ign 193 1974 I75 1976 1977 197 19" 1960 1161 I12 1963

Total End of Yw Populatlen 90,92.0 93,367.0 96,2W.0 97,477.0 9#,C43.0 102,243.0 103,9.0 105,787.0 107,723.0 109,274.0 111,110.0 113,4.0 114,360.0

Cr ob BirthRat (POr 1,000) 42.0 40.7 34.7 5.4 34.5 3.0 306 31I. 3.2 2.7 2.4 .. .

Crud. D"h Rab (per 1000) 6.3 9. 10.0 7.5 6.S 7.9 7.6 7.2 6,6 6.9 6.6 ..

Ra b of Ms bwal IeIaws 1.7 309 24.1 27.9 264 3.1 23.2 24 J 2.7 210 22s ..to

Teoal lIrU* 3,714.0 3,795.0 3,243.0 3,373.0 3,956.0 3,766.0 3,152.0 3,2.0 34a.0 3,075.0 3,e.O so

Total DOth 734.0 30.0 90.0 716.0 62.0 mo.0 776 745.0 *3.0 724.0 726.0 .. of

Natrel weriss 2,960.0 2,815.0 2,233.0 2,957.0 2,566.0 3,000.0 2,374.0 2,530.0 2,716.0 2,31.0 2,494.0 .. a.

Not NlIratlm a/ 400.0 -400.0 -00.0 400.0 -400. 400.0 -a471.0 4o. -700.0 400.0 45.0 .. ..

Not Pqalatljn lnesis 2,5QO.0 2,415.0 1,6.0 2,27P0 2,166.0 2,600.0 1,703. 1,341.0 1,3.0 1,551.0 1,35.0 .. ..

Intfat ODeths 190.0 236.0 =3 214.0 219.0 25.0 11500 161.0 130O 1m5.o 147.0 .. se

Inftnt Ibrtality Rut 51.2 666 3.6 63.4 64.4 54.1 55.S 49.2 3.1 3.4 .456 .. a

af Tisre w no dots on miratli for 971-761 tie 0ornriat estl_bre net igration for thoue yre at 4Wyur.

Soruess MInistry of Halth. NlnlItry of Flnmnc, PlamIg anDrewlaesnt sfW sslan eetlmtes.

Way 1964

_ 44 -

Table 2.1: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - SECTORAL ORIGIN OF GROSS

DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT FACTOR COST

(ECS Mille.n)

1977 1978 1979 19U0 1981 1982 1383

Agriculture, Livestock & Fishing 13.3 18.5 18.4 18.4 28e.2 29.3 31.2

auerrylng 0.3 0.3 O.4 0. s 0 .6 0.6 0.7

Censtructlon 10.0 11.5 14.4 18.4 21.1 22.4 24.0

anufacturlng 5.9 10.3 13.1 14.2 18.4 20.7 21.3

Electricity and Water 2.4 2.4 3.0 3.3 4.4 5.2 6.8

Transport and Communicatlons 11.5 16.S 17.9 20.1 25.0 29.8 31.1

Wbolsesle and Retail Trade 10.4 11.5 12.2 16.3 17.6 18.5 19.6

Hotel and Restaurants 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.7 4.1 4.5

Banking. Finance, Real Estate

& lusileas Services 6.1 8.4 10.2 11.2 14.3 16.5 18.6

Public Admlalstration 15.4 19.6 22.9 23.5 29.8 34.0 38.2

Other Servicos 2.6 3.0 3.3 4.6 5.3 5.7 6.2

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

AT FACTOR COST 79.3 104.2 1l1.O 133-5 168.4 18668 202-2

Sourcest Ministry of Flanca, Planning and Devalopment, OECS Socretariat & Mission

estimstea.

May 1984

- 45 -

Table 2.23 ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - SECTORAL ORIGIN OF GROSS

DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT (1977) FACTOR COST

(ECS mili1on)

1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1963

Agriculture, Livestock & Fishing 13.3 l6.O 14.0 12.1 18.3 17.7 18.6

Ouarrying 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4

Construction 10.0 9.9 10.6 11.2 11.7 11.7 11.

Manufacturing 5.9 8.6 10.6 11.1 11.3 12.0 12.3

Electricity and Water 2.4 2.5 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.0

Transport and Communications 11.5 13.2 13.6 15.8 17.9 19.4 20.2

Wholesale and Retail Trade 10.4 10.0 10.7 11.1 10.7 11.1 11.2

Hotel and Restaurants 1.4 1.7 2.9 3.7 3.2 3.4 3.5

Banking, Finance, Real Estate

£ Business Services 6.1 7.6 7.3 7.7 7.9 7.S 8.3

Pubiic Administratlon 15.4 16.1 17.0 17.7 18.1 16.1 19.2

Other Services 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

AT FACTOR COST 79.3 89.0 93.0 97.0 IO6.0 108.6 113.0

Sourcesz Ministry of Finance, Planning and Development, OECS Secretariat & Mission

estimates.

May 1984.

- 46 -

Table 2.3& ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS

DONESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES

CECS MIIilon)

1977 1978 1979 1980 1961 1982 1983

Total Coesumptlom 108.6 119.5 142.8 161.2 176.7 213.0 220.5

Poblic Sector 23.1 29.5 33.6 37.7 44.9 51.7 56.9

Private Sector 65.5 90.0 109.2 123.5 133.$ 161.3 163.9

Gross Domestic Investment 26.5 27.8 48.6 63.0 6S.S 69.9 79.5

Public Sector 9.a 10.7 16.6 24.1 26.2 23.5 22.4

Private Sector 14.1 15.2 27.6 33.2 31.3 40.0 50.3

Inventory change 2.6 1.9 4.4 5.7 6.0 6.4 6.5

Goods and Non-Factor

Services Balance -41.1 -25.2 -51.5 -66.1 -47.2 -59.1 -56.1

Exports of Good* and NFS 44.8 76.6 88.6 104.8 131.5 141.S 166.5

Imports of Goods and NFS -6s.9 -104.0 -140.1 -170.9 -178.7 -200.6 -224.6

gross Domestic Product

at Market Prices 94.0 122.1 140.1 156.1 197.0 223.8 244.2

inuess Indirect Taxes

Not of Subsidlos 14.7 17.9 22.1 24.6 28.6 37.0 42.0

Gross Domestic Product

at Factor Cost 79.3 104.2 118.0 133.5 168.4 156.8 202.2

Not Factor Income - - -1.6 -2.4 -1.9 -4.8 -4.3

Factor Recelpts I-) C-) (1.6) (2.*) (3.6) (3.0) (3.5)

Factor Payments C-) C-) (-3.2) (-4.6) C-5.7) (-7.5) (-7.6)

gross National Product

at Current Factor Cost 79.3 104.2 11.4 131.1 I66.5 182.0 197.9

Loer Oopreciation oan

Fixed Capital S.S 6.2 7.0 9.1 I1.S 13.5 I6.2

Not Notlonal Product

at Factor Coat 73.6 96.0 109.4 122.0 155.0 166.5 161.7

Soorcess Ministry of Finance, Plaanlig * Development, OECS Seeretariat and Misslon

astIme tee.

may 1984

- 47 -

Table 2.4: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS

DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT 1977 PRICES

(ECS Million)

1977 1970 1979 1980 1951 1b42 1983

Total Consmiption 106.6 107.S 108.8 108.3 106.8 116.7 118.6

Public Sector 23.1 26.5 24.9 28.0 27.3 27.5 28.6

Prlvate Sector 85.5 61.0 83.9 80.3 79.5 89.2 90.0

Groes Domestic Invettmut 26.5 23.0 38.6 40.8 39.6 42.1 48.6

Public Sector 9.8 6.9 13.3 15.6 17.1 14.1 13.7

Private Sector 14.1 12.6 21.8 21.5 18.9 24.1 30.7

Inventory Change 2.6 1.5 3.S 3.7 3.6 3.9 4.2

Goods and Non-Factor Service

Balance -41.1 -23.7 -38.0 -34.8 -21.8 -30.8 -33.7

Exports of Goode and NFS 44.8 73.0 72.6 74.5 86.2 92.1 108.6

Imports of Goods and NFS -6S.1 -96.7 -110.6 -109.3 -108.0 -122.9 -142.3

gross Domestic Product at

Market Pricoe 94.0 IOS1 S 109.4 114.3 124.6 128.0 133.5

Minus: Indirect Taxes

Net of Subsidlec 14.7 16.1 16.4 17.3 18.6 19.4 20.5

Gross Domestic Product at

Factor Cost 79.3 89.4 93.0 97.0 106.0 108.6 113.0

Net Factor Income - - -1.2 -1.6 -1.1 -2.8 -2.4

Factor receipts C-) C-) C1.3) (C.5) (2.3) (1.7) (1.9)

Facter payments C-) C-) (-2.S) (-3.1) t-3.4) (-4.5) (-4.3)

Oross National Product at

Factor Cost 79.3 89.4 91.8 95.4 104.9 105.8 110.6

Sources Ministry of Flnance, Planning A Development, OECS Secretariat A Misslon

s timates.

May 1984

- 48 -

Table 2.5s ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - COP DEFLATORS

(1977 - 100)

Vt.. 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1963

gross Domestic Expenditure 143.6 100.0 113.1 t30.3 149.9 166.9 179.2 161.7

Consumptlon 11S.6 100.0 111.2 131.3 145.8 167.3 112.5 166.2

Investment 28.2 100.0 120.7 126.4 154.4 16S.4 166.0 163.6

Exports of goods and NFS 47.6 100.0 107.9 122.0 140.7 152.6 153.6 155.2

Imports of Goods and NFS -91.4 100.0 107.5 126.7 156.4 165.5 163.2 157.e

COP Deflator (at Narket Prices) 100.0 100.0 115.7 126.1 136.3 15S.1 174.6 162.9

Sources Tables 2.3 and 2.4.

Nay 1984

- 49 -

Table 3.1s ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

(USS Million)

1977 1978 1979 1950 1951 1982 1953

Export of Goods and NFS 16.6 29.2 32.5 35.8 48.7 52.4 62.4

Merchandise Exports 10.7 15.1 19.1 21.1 29.8 34.3 42.0

Mon-Factor ServIces 5.9 11.1 13.7 17.7 15.9 18.1 20.4

Imports of goods and NFS 31.8 35.5 51.9 63.3 66.2 74.3 83.2

Merchandise Imports 30.3 36.2 46.3 57.2 55.2 63.6 71.4

Nan-Factor Services 1.5 2.3 5.6 6.2 8.0 10.7 11.8

Resource Balance -15.2 -9.3 -19.1 -24.5 -17.5 -21.9 -20.5

Factor Services and Transfers 8.7 9.3 12.7 11.3 11.4 1O.S 13.6

Net Factor Service Payments - - -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 -1.8 -1.6

Transfers to Private Sector 8.7 9.3 13.3 12.2 12.1 12.3 15.2

Current Account Balance -6.5 - -6.4 -13.2 -6.1 -11.4 -7.2

Private Capital 2.9 -1.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.6 3.0

Public Sector 2.7 4.1 4,5 .8. 9.6 8.3 6.9

Official Transfors 2.4 2.7 2.5 3.9 5.3 5.3 4.2

Foreign Borrowing (Not) 0.8 1.1 2.2 4.4 2.7 2.3 2.6

ECCA/ECCS - - - - 0.9 0.4 0.3

I_MF - - - 0.7 1.5 - -

govt. Foreign Assets (Increace-) -0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2

senking System 2.1 0.1 -2.1 1.6 -2.0 6.4 -1.4

Errors and Omissions -1.2 -3.1 3.1 1.7 -2.0 -3.9 -1.3

Sources IMF staff estimates.

May 1984

- 50 -

Table 3.23 ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - MERCHANDISE IMPORT (C.I.F.)

BY END USE CATEGORY

(USS Million)

1977 1978 1979 l9S0 1981 1982 1983

Total MerchandIse Imports 30.3 36.2 46.3 57.1 58.2 63.6 71.4

Consumer Goode 19.3 24.3 29.6 35.6 35.1 39.2 39.7

Food, Beverages A Tobacco 10.0 13.7 17.1 20.0 18.S 20.6 20.7

Manufactured Seods 9.3 IO.6 12.S 15.6 16.C 16.6 19.0

lItermedlate Goods 6.5 6.8 9.7 12.5 14.6 13.9 15.9

Minerals and Fuels 2.l 2.2 3.S 5.1 S.1 S.1 5.4

Chemical and Fertilizers 3.1 3.6 4.9 5.5 6.9 6.5 6.9

Raw Materlals 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.9 2.6 2.3 3.6

Capital Goods 4.S 5.1 7.0 9.0 8.S 10.5 1S.8

MachInery and Equipment 4.5 5.1 7.0 9.0 8.S 10.5 15.8

Sources Ministry of Finance, Planning and Development and IMF staff estlmates.

Nay 1984

- 51 -

Table 3.3: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES: VALUE, VOLUME AND UNIT PRICES

OF MAJOR EXPORTS

(Value In millions of US dollars. volume in millions of pounda.

mnd unit prlce In US dollars per pound)

Est.

1977 197i 1979 1980 IS81 1912 1953

Total merchandise

exports _/ 10.7 16.1 19.1 21.1 29.8 34.3 42.0

Re-exports a/ 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 2.2

Domestic exports a/ 10.0 17.4 16.5 20.2 25.9 33.3 39.8

Bananas

Volue 5.6 7.3 5.9 6.3 10.2 9.0 9.7

Volume 26.2 31.0 22.3 15.8 29.8 25.0 27.3

Unit price 0.214 0.235 0.263 0.334 0.338 0.360 0.355

Flour

Value - 3.2 5.4 6.0 6.4 5.6 4.5

Volume - 22.3 34.5 33.3 31.0 28.7 24.3

Unit price - 0.143 0.1Si 0.1S0 0.206 0. 195 0 .186

Nit feed

V lue - 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0

Volume - 10.2 15.4 16.0 17.6 17.4

Unit price - 0.069 0.058 0.063 0.063 0.057

Arrowroot

value 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.7

Volume 1 .6 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.3 1. 2

Unit price 0 .313 0.389 0.472 0.555 0 .741 0.701 0.598

Coconuta

Value 0 .3 0 .3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.

Volume ('000 nuts) 4 .1 4.7 4. 1 3.8 1.8 1.6 0. 6

Unit price 0.063 0.064 0.130 0.144 0.15 0.151 0.160

Sweet potatoes

Value 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5

Volume 1.3 2.7 2.5 3.6 2.4 2.0 2.5

Unit price 0.131 0.148 0.133 0.137 0.123 0.126 0.195

Plantelns

Value 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.6

Volume 2.1 1.9 4.0 3.9 2.9

Unit price 0.093 0.119 0.188 0.184 0.189

Eddoes and desheens

Value 0.7 1.0 2.1 2.7 5.3Volume 3.4 4.3 5.2 10.8 18.3

Unit price 0.204 0.237 0.250 0.254 0.292

Other a/ 3.4 4.8 4.6 4.8 8.0 14.5 18.3

Of which:

postage stamps (0.8) (1.5) (1.11) t0.6) (2.2) (1.9) CO.6)

a/ Volue only.

Sources: Ministry of Finaone, Planning and Development; St. Vincent Marketing

Corporation; Ministry of Trade. Industry and Agriculture; ard Fund staff

estimates.

May. 1984

- 52 -

Table 3.4s ST. VINCENT AND THE ORENADINES - TERMS OF TRADE

C1980.100)

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

Export Price Index a/ 82.6 100.0 109.0 110.1 107.7

Import Price Index b/ 80.6 100.0 104.0 100.6 97.9

Commodity Terms of Trade 102.7 100.0 104.8 109.4 110.0

a/ Blsed on export prices of bananas, arrowroot, coconuts, sweet potatoes,

floor, plantains, desheens and eddoes, whlch together averaged 74Z of the

value of domestic exports during 1979-81.

b/ Based on expert price Indices of St. Vincent's trading partners.

Sources IMF staff estimates.

May 1984

- 53 -

Table 3.5, ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - DIRECTION OF TRADE

(ECSO000)

Joan.-J one

1979 1980 1981 1952 1983

Total exports, f.o.b. 39,867 42,507 65,854 87,401 51,360

United Kingdom 19,695 21,408 30,232 26,337 16,649

United Stotes 1,042 1,722 4,521 7,778 4,933

Caenad 733 252 560 315 281

CARICOM countries a/ 17,327 18,712 30,207 51,314 29,410

Trinidad and Tobago (6,653) C10,761) (15,730) (27,190) C17,259)

Barbados (1,902) (2,159) C3,134) (4,430) (1,955)

Antigua (1,671) (582) (1,815) (3,651) (2,018)

Domlnica (1,177) (877) (1,616) (4,241) (2,458)

St. Kitts and Nevis (1,012) (949) (1,601) (3,057) (1,505)

St. Lucia (241) (1,1212 (2,859) (5,768) (2,308)

Other (1,221) (695) (1,322) (2,977) (1,904)

Other 1,070 413 334 1,657 87

Totai Imports, c.i.f. 125,079 154,178 :57,117 164,526 106,155

United Kingdom 28,ts9 28,341 27,018 27,967 11,230

United States 24,841 40,298 51,009 52,589 35,478

Canade 14,512 12,057 9,060 10,831 6,956

Japan 2,139 5,081 3,603 6,287 5,210

Netherlands 1,652 1,669 1,973 2,713 1,890

West Germany 1,316 2,767 1,314 2,025 1,410

CARICOM countries 34,550 44,818 42,358 31,94B 34,156

Trinidad and Tobego (17,477) C23,676) (21,234) (14,645) (25,751)

Barbados (5,737) (8,120) (6,925) (6,014) (3,194)

Guyana (3,429) (5,520) (5,764) (2,570) (1,685)

Jamaica (2,576) (2,268) (2,908) (3,405) (1,464)

Antigua (306) (722) (227) (559) (132)

Dominica (849) (1,007) (1,190) (1,186) C317)

St. Lucia (3,989) (3,038) (2,735) (2,327) (984)

Other (167) (467) (1,37S) (1,239) (629)

Other 17,879 19,147 20,762 23,166 9,825

a/ The Information for each CARICON country refers only to domeatle exports. It Is

ass*ued that the sane percentage distribution for domestic exports reomains when

re-exports are Included.

Sourcess Statistical Unit, Ministry of Finance, Planning and Development.

May 1984

Table 4.1: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTStANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1983DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

D E B T O U T S T A N D I N G : I N A R R E A R STYPE OF CREDITORCR

CREDITOR COUNTRY DISBURSED :UNDISBURSED: TOTAL : PRINCIPAL INTEREST

SUPPLIERS CREDITSUNITED KINGDOM 527 - 527 -

TOTAL SUPPLIERS CREDITS 527 - 527 -

BONDSMULTIPLE LENDERS 242 - 242 -

TOTAL BONDS 242 - 242 -

MULTILATERAL LOANSCARIBBEAN OEV. BANK 17.685 7.080 24.765 89 415OPEC FLOWS 1,000 - 1,000 --

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 18.685 7.080 25,765 89 415

BILATERAL LOANSCANADA 281 - 281 -

GUYANA 86 - 86 -

UNITED KINGOOM 1.063 - 1,063 -

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 1.430 - 1,430 -

TOTAL EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT 20,884 7,080 27,964 89 415

NOTES: (I) ONLY DEBTS WITH AN ORIGINAL OR EXTENDED MATURITY OF OVER ONE YEAR ARE INCLUDED IN THIS TABLE,(2) DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDES PRINCIPAL IN ARREARS BUT EXCLUDES INTEREST IN ARREARS.

Table 4.2: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 1 of 12

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS ANU OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEaT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS or DEC. 31. 1983DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TOTAL

YEAR OEST OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I OD OTHER CHANGESBEGINNING OF PERloO

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-: ONLY :UNOISBURSED: MENTS MENTS ------- --- ----------- L----------- LATIONS MENT *

* . PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (1) : (2) : (3) (4) : 5) (6) : (7) (a) (9)

1969 - - 486 486 - - -20i970 466 466 160 160 - 36 36 -71971 619 619 243 3 - 48 48 - 11972 622 863 2,36b 15 - 36 36 - -1291973 637 3,100 1.325 2,t37 - 49 49 - -761974 2.663 4,349 346 157 - 51 51 - 231975 2.845 4,718 1.916 363 - 57 57 - -4771976 2,901 6.157 1.828 538 8 66 74 - -4471977 3.112 7.530 843 731 25 87 112 - 2551978 4.019 8.603 1.815 1.003 27 107 134 - -161979 5.010 10.375 6.313 1.348 69 157 226 - 4361980 6.554 17,055 4.125 3,038 146 276 422 - 3571981 9.664 21.391 2,936 7,662 262 358 620 - - 1.3921982 16.161 22.683 2.504 3,801 815 558 1,403 - -934 n1983 18.312 23.441 5,736 3.783 737 646 1,383 - -476 I1984 20,884 27,964 1

* * * * + THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * .

1984 20.884 27.964 - 3,717 857 1.045 1.902 - -891985 23,655 27.018 - 1,209 1.219 1,104 2.323 - -1986 23.643 25.799 - 924 1.400 1,102 2,502 - -21987 23.t64 24,397 - 519 1,631 1.065 2.696 - -1988 22.053 22,766 - 329 1.826 1.007 2.833 - -21989 20.555 20.938 - 175 1.752 920 2.672 - -3l990 18,972 19.183 - 120 1.846 840 2,686 91991 17,284 17.346 - 81 1.785 762 2.547 - 11992 15.550 15.562 - 11 1.694 678 2.372 - 21993 13,870 13,870 - - 1,683 596 2.279 - -t

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Table 4.2: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 2 of 12

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1983DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN IHOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDItOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS

CREDITOR COUNTRY UNITED KINGDOMYEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I OD OTHER CHANGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S F R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-: ONLY *UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS -----------------------:----------- LATIONS MENT *

: : : : + PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL* (1) : (2) ( {3) : (4) (5) (6) (7) (5) (9)

1969 - - - . -1970 - - -1971 - -

1972 - - - -

1973 - - * . -1974 - -1975 - - _1976 - - - - - - - -1977 - - -1978 - - - _ - _1979 - - - -a980 - - 1.312 135 - - - - 33 1

1981 138 1.345 - 1.026 S1 14 95 - -264 L*n1982 1.000 1.000 - - 142 25 167 - -143 0%1983 715 715 - - 121 49 170 - -671984 527 527

* * *. * 'THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * **

1984 527 527 - * 117 37 154 - -

1985 410 410 - - 117 29 146 -

1986 293 293 - - 117 20 137 -

1987 176 176 - - 117 11 128 -

¶009 59 59 - 59 2 61 -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Table 4.2: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 3 of 12

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUtSTANDING AMOUNTS Or EXTFRNAL PUBLIC nE8T

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANOING INCLUOING UNDISBURSED AS OF DFC. 31. 1983DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN tHOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS

TOTALYEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S O U R I N G P E R I O D OTHER CHANGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-ONLY UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS ----------------------- ---------- LATIONS MENT *

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL(1) (2) 3) (4) (5 (6) (7) (8) (9)

19g69 - -

1970 - - -1971 - -1972 - - - -1973 - - - _1974 - - - _1975 - - _1976 - - - -1977 - - - - _1978 - - -1979 - - - -1980 - 1-317 135 - - 331981 138 1.345 - 1.026 el 14 95 - -2641982 1.000 1.000 - - 142 25 167 - -1431983 715 715 - - 121 49 170 -671984 527 527

** T*THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROdECTED * * * '

1984 527 527 - - 117 37 1541985 410 410 - - 117 29 146 - -1986 293 293 - 117 20 137 - -

1987 176 176 - - 117 It 128 - -

1988 59 59 - 59 2 6f - -

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Table 4.2: ST. VfINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 4 of 12

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMtTMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 0983DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR BONDS

CREDITOR COUNTRY MULTIPLE LENOERSYEAR DEST OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I OD OTHER CHANGES

-BEGINNING OF PERIOD....................... ........................................................... .......................

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-: ONLY :UNolSBURSED: MENTS MENTS .........- ......------:---------- LATIONS MENT *

I I : : : PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (I) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (B) (9)

1969 - - 486 486 - - - -201970 466 466 60 I60 - 36 36 - -71971 619 619 - - - 48 48 - -

1972 619 619 - - - 36 3 --

1973 619 619 - - - 48 4; - -

1974 619 619 - - - 48 6 - -1975 619 619 - - - 48 48 - -51976 614 614 - - - 44 44 - -81977 606 606 - - 45 45 - -

4978 606 606 223 - 40 40 -671979 539 762 - 223 - 53 53 - -

1980 762 762 - - - 58 581981 762 762 - - 58 58 - *n1982 762 762 - - 406 59 464 - -

1983 356 356 19 19 133 28 161 - -

1984 242 242

* # * ' THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED ' ' * ' ' '

1984 242 242 - - 20 201985 242 242 - - - 20 201986 242 242 - - - 20 201987 242 242 - - - 20 201988 242 242 - - 223 20 2431989 1 9 - - 2 21990 19 19 - - - 2 21991 19 19 - - 2 21992 19 19 - - - 2 21993 19 i9 - - 19 2 21

* TH1S COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDIS8URSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMRALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Table 4.2: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 5 of 12

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, OISOURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANOING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1983DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR BONDS

TOTALYEAR DEST OUTSTANDINO AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G PE R IRO D OTHER CHANGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD..-------.. o .....- . --....-.. ..-..- . . .......-- .....-.- ................. ..... .............. .................................. .. .. >...... .............. .

OISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- OISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-ONLY :UNDISSURSED: MENTS MENTS :--------- ------------------- LAlIONS MENT

I PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL* (1) (2) (3) (4) .(5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1969 - - 486 486 - - - - -201970 466 466 160 160 36 36 - -71971 e19 619 - - 48 48 - -1972 619 619 - - - 36 36 - -1973 619 6G9 - - - 48 48 - -1974 619 619 - - - 48 48 - -1975 619 6t9 - - 48 48 - -51976 614 614 - - - 44 44 - -81977 606 606 - - - 46 45 - -1978 606 606 123 - - 40 40 - -671979 539 762 - 223 53 53 - -1980 762 762 - - 58 - -19S1 762 762 - - - 58 5B - - ntR2 762 762 - 406 58 464 - -1983 JOG , s6 9 19 133 28 161 - -1984 242 242

' ^ * ' THIE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * *

1984 242 242 - - - 20 201985 242 242 - - - 20 201986 242 242 - - 20 201987 242 242 - - 20 201999 242 242 - - 223 20 2431999 19 19 - - 2 21990 19 19 - - 2 21991 9 19 - - 2 21992 19 9 - - - 2 2t993 t9 t9 - I9 2 21

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT or ARITHMFTIC IM8ALANCE IN TIIE AMOUNT OUTSTANOING INCLUDING UNOISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Table 4.2: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 6 of 12

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANOING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOIS0URSED AS OF DEC. 31. t983DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANOS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS

CREDITOR COUNTRY CARIBBEAN DEV. BANKYEAR DEBT OUTSTANOING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I OD OTHER CHANGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD- _ .…_ __-_ - _ - - ........

…................................. ... _

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-: ONLY tUNDISBURSED: MENTS :4ENTS -----------:-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT

I : : + PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (a) (9)

1969 - - - - - .

1970 - - -1971 - - 243 3 --1972 3 244 249 15 - - 21973 19 45o 1,325 62 - I I - -551974 79 1,765 58 157 - 3 3 - 131975 239 1.836 1.572 296 - 9 9 - -1951976 509 3.213 1,829 493 8 22 30 - - 1671977 896 4,866 843 599 25 42 67 - 1101978 1.507 5.794 1.592 882 27 67 94 - -31979 2,375 7,356 6,313 1,042 69 104 173 - 2701980 3,440 13.870 2,813 2,832 146 218 364 - 19519B1 6.212 16.732 1,936 6,636 112 269 381 - -715 o1982 i2.319 17,841 2,504 3,301 267 366 633 - -5301983 14.919 19.548 5.717 3,2fi4 227 459 66 - -2731984 17.685 24.765

. .* * * tHE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * *

1984 17.685 24.765 - 3,717 544 897 1.431 - -891995 20,769 24,132 - 1.209 827 965 1,792 -1986 21,149 23.305 - 924 1.051 982 2.033 -31987 21,018 22,251 - 519 1,282 961 2,243 - -1988 20,258 20.969 - 329 1,312 920 2,232 - -21989 19.272 19.655 - 175 1.520 860 2.380 - -31990 17.921 18.132 - 120 1.614 788 2.402 - 91991 16,434 16,526 81 1.625 718 2,343 - 11992 14.,90 14,902 - 11 1,605 641 2,246 - 21993 13,299 13.299 - - ,S57B 566 2,141 - -1

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITIMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHIANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Table 4.2: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 7 of 12

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBt OUTSTANDING INCLtJDING UNDISBURSED AS or nEc. 31, 1983DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCV AN) GOODS

(IN THIOUSANOS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS

CREDITOR COUNTRY OPEC FLOWSYEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S O U R I N G P E R I OD OTHER CHANGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD… .. .......................... .............................................................-...------....------.-

DISBURSEO INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MFNTS ---------- ------------- LATIONS MENT *

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1969 - -t970 - -1971 -1972 - - - - - -19731974 - - -1975 - - -1976 - - - .1977 - - -1978 -1979 - - - -1980 - - - - - -98 t - 1.000 . . .

1982 - 1.000 - 500 -B 1 - -1983 500 1,000 - 500 - 4 4 - -1984 1.000 1.000

* * * t TIIE FOLLOWING rIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * *

1984 1.000 1.000 - 71 5 761985 929 929 - - 143 4 1471986 786 786 - - 43 4 1471987 643 643 - - 143 3 1461988 500 500 - - 143 2 1451989 357 357 - - 143 2 1451990 214 214 - 143 1 1441991 71 71 71 71

T tHIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDINO INCLUDING UNOISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES or IMBALANCES ARE CIIANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSrER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Table 4.2: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 8 of 12

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANOING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOISBURSED AS or OEC. 31, 1983DEST REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. OOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS

TOTALYEAR DEST OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G PER AI 0 D OTHER CHANGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS --- ---------- :----------- LATIONS MENT *

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (1) : {(2) (3) (4) : 5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1969---------1970 - -1971 - - 243 3 - - - -1972 3 244 249 Is - - - - 21973 IB 495 1,325 62 - I 1 - -551974 79 1,765 58 157 - 3 3 - 131975 239 1.836 1.572 296 - 9 9 - -1951976 509 3,213 1.828 433 a 22 30 - -1671977 896 4.866 843 599 25 42 67 - 1101978 1,507 S.794 1.592 882 27 67 94 - -31979 2,375 7,356 6.313 1.042 69 104 173 - 2701980 3.440 13.870 2.803 2.832 146 218 364 - 1951981 6.212 16.732 2,936 6.636 112 269 381 - -715t982 12.319 18,841 2,504 3.801 267 367 634 -5301983 15,419 20,548 5,717 3.764 227 4(13 690 - -2731984 18.685 25.765

' ' ' t ' * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * *

1984 18.695 25.765 - 3,717 615 892 1.507 - -891985 21.698 25.061 - 1.209 970 969 1.939 - -1986 21,935 24.091 - 924 1.i94 986 2.J80 - -31987 21,661 22.894 519 1,425 964 2,389 - -1988 20,756 21,469 - 329 1.455 922 2.377 - -21989 19,629 20,012 - 175 1,663 862 2.525 - -31990 19,135 18.346 - 120 1,757 789 2,546 - 81991 16.505 16.597 - 1 1.696 718 2,414 -1992 14,890 14.902 - 1.605 641 2.246 - 21993 13.299 13,299 - - ,575 566 2.141 -1

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANOING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROI4 ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Table 4.2: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 9 of 12

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS ANO OUTSTANOING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUELic DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLllDING UNOISDURSED AS or DEC. 31. 1983DEBrT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS

CREDITOR COUNTRY CANADAYEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I O D OHER CHANGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD… I ........................................................... ....…....

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A V M E N T S CANCEL- AodUST-ONLY :UNDISRURSED: MENTS MENTS ........... ----------- ----------- LATIONS MENT 4

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL(1) (2) (3) (4) (5} (6) (7) (a) (9)

1969 - - - -19701971 - - - - . .1972 - - - -1973 - - - -1974 - - - - -1975 - - 344 20 - - - - -1976 20 344 - 64 - - -1977 82 347 - 90 - - - - -271978 164 320 - 81 - - - - -251979 228 295 - 42 - - - 51980 274 300 - 26 - - - - -7199t 293 293 - - - - - 21982 295 295 - - - - - - 101983 285 295 - - - - - - -41984 281 281

4 ' * THE FOLLOWING rIGURES ARE PROJECTED * ' * * *

1984 2811 281 - - - - -1985 281 281 - - 7 - 71986 274 274 - - 7 7 - -1987 267 267 - - 7 7 - -198A 260 260 - - 7 7 - -1989 253 253 - - 7 7 - -l990 246 246 - - 7 7 - -1991 239 239 - - 7 - 71992 232 232 - - 7 71993 225 225 - - 7 7

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARlIlTMETIC IMBALANCE IN THF AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHIANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Table 4.2: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 10 of 12

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, OISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUINTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASEO ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBUJRSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1983DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS

CREDITOR COUNTRY GUYANAYEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES

: BEGINNING OF PERIOD…_… ….… .-- _- - - -- -

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-: ONLY :UNDISHURSED: MENTS MENTS - --- -- --------- --- . LATIONS MENT *

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (1) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (B) (9)

1969 - - -

1970 - - - . -1971 - -

1972-- 1973 - - _1974 - - 298 - - - - - -121975 - 276 - 47 - - - - -21976 46 274 - 41 - - - -31977 98 271 - 42 - - - - -1978 130 271 - 40 - - - - -301979 155 241 - 41 - - - _1980 196 241 - 45 - - - - -1981 241 241 - - 69 17 86 - -11982 171 171 - - 12 12 - - 41983 171 171 - 85 12 97 - -1984 86 86

. * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * *

1984 96 86 - - 43 6 491985 43 43 - - 43 3 46

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Table 4.2: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 11 of 12

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEST OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1983DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANOS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS

CREDITOR COUNTRY UNITED KINGDOMYEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I OD OT1IER CHANGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD :

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A V M E N T S CANCFL- : AOdJUST-: ONLY :UNDISHURSED: MENTS MENTS -----------:-----------:----------- LATIONS : MENT

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (1) (2) (3) : (4) (5) (6) : (7) (a) : (9)

1969 - - -1970 - - - _1971 - - - -

1972 - - 2,117 - - -1311973 - 1.986 - 2.075 - - - - -211974 1.965 1.965 - - - - - 221975 1.987 1,987 - - - - - - -2751976 1.712 i,712 - - - - - - -2721977 1.440 1.440 - - - - - - 72I979 1.612 1.612 - - - - - - 1091979 1,721 1,721 - - - - 161 1980 1.882 1.982 - - 1- - - 361981 2.018 2.018 - - - - - - -4041982 1.614 1,614 - - 126 126 - -2481983 1.366 1,366 - - 171 94 265 - -1321984 1.063 1.063

* * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * '

1984 1.063 1.063 - - 82 90 172 - -1985 981 981 - - 82 83 165 - -1996 899 899 - - 82 76 158 - 11987 819B a1 - - 82 70 152 - -1998 736 736 - - 82 63 145 - -1989 654 654 - - 82 56 138 - -1990 572 572 - - 82 49 131 - I1991 491 491 - - 82 42 124 - -1992 409 409 - - 82 35 1171993 327 327 - - 82 28 10O

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOtHER IN THE TABLE.

Table 4.2: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 12 of 12

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS or DEC. 31, 1983DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN ttOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS

TOTALYEAR DEBT OUTSTANOING At T R A N S A C T I O NS D U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- : S E R V I C F P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-: ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS *--*------------------------ LATIONS MENT *: . : : : PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (t) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (g)

1969 - - * - - - - - -1970 - - - . . . _

1971 - - * - . .1972 - - 2.117 - - - - - -1311973 - 1.986 - 2.075 - - - - -211974 1.965 1.965 288 - - - - - 101975 1.987 2,263 344 67 - - - - -2771976 1.778 2,330 - 105 * * - - -2721977 1.610 2,058 - 132 - - - - 1451978 1.906 2,203 1 21 - - * - 541979 2,104 2.257 - 83 - * - 1661980 2.352 2.423 - 71 - - - - 1291981 2.552 2,552 - 69 17 86 - -4031982 2.080 2.080 - - 138 13 - -2581983 1.822 1,822 - - 256 106 362 - -1361964 1.430 1,430

. * * * 1HE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED *

1984 1,430 1.430 - - 125 96 221 - -

1985 1.305 1.305 - - 132 86 218 - -

1986 1.173 1,173 - - 89 76 165 - 1197 1.085 1,085 - - 89 70 159 -19f19 996 996 - - 89 63 152 - -19d9 907 907 - - 89 56 145 - -1990 918 88 - - 89 49 138 -1991 730 730 - - 89 42 131 -

1992 641 641 - - 89 35 124t993 552 5S2 - - 89 28 117

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS ITHE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OU'StANDING INCLUDING UNOISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Table 4.3: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 1 of 4

STRUC1I0JRE ANO TERMS or EXTFRNAL PUBLIC DHBICrOMMITMFNTS *JAN. I. 19G9 - DEr. 31. Insi 8DEBI REIPAYASLE IN rORrIGN cURRLNCrY AND GOODS

(IN TIIUtSANU,S OF ti.s. nOLLARS)AVFRAGF TFRMS

PFRinn F N nfl-N-. -----------------------------TYPE (IF CRFDITnR INIEREST MATURIIY GRACE GRANT GRANT TOTAL.*.

CPFI Top CnOUNIRY AMnONt.. (%I (YRS) (YRSI ELEMFNI(%) EQUIVALENT AMOUNT-- - -- - - - - -- - - -- - - * - - ......... ........ . ...... .... .... ----. . .... .... . ---------- . .. -...-------... .. ..

6912P,flND SMUIlTIrLF I.rNnrFPS 486 7.500 13.S 135 I.1 88 4S6

TOTAL BONDS 486 7.500 13.5 13.5 18. 1 88 456

TOTAL 6917 4Afi 7.500 1 1.5 13.5 18.1 is 486

7012RONDS

MtIlT11PtE LFNOFRS iE'fl 7.fi0 13.5 13.5 IR A 29 ISOIOTAL RONDS 16 7.5 r(5 13 25 In.1 9 160l

TOtAL 7012 ihn 7.51 13.5 13.5 18. I ?9 160

7112MULTILArERAL LnANS

CAPIBHFAN DEV. BANK 243 4.000 19.7 5.7 39.4 96 243IOTAL MUltILAIFRAI. LOANS 24.1 4.000 19.7 5.2 39.4 96 243

TOnAL 1112 273 4.000 19.7 5.7 39.4 96 243

7212 1

MULTILATERAL LOANS >

CARTIBFAN DEV. BANK 249 4.000 19.3 4.B 38.7 96 249 %J

IOTAL MULlILAIFRAL LOANS 249 4.000 '%.3 4.r 3B.7 96 249 1

BILAlFRAL LOANSUNITEm klirnnM P.117 8.500 24.5 I0.5 11.9 252 2.1i7

TOTAL 1IILATERAI lOANS 2 117 S.500 24.5 10.5 11.9 252 2, 117

TnTAl. 7212 2.366 i.026 24.0 n 9 14.7 348 2.366

7312MULTILArfRAI. LOANS

CARIBIIEAN D0V. IIANK 1.325 4.000 20.6 6.5 41.2 545 1.325

TOTAL MIILI 1AIFRAI IOANS 1.375 4 000 20 6 S 5 41.2 545 1.325

TOTAL 731? 1.325 4.000 20.6 6.5 41.7 545 1,325

7412MULTILAtIRAl IOANS

* INCLUDES INCRFAASrS DURINGo T1ilS PFninn In IIrIlrS, WI TI OlIGINAI. CUMMITMFNT DATES rRnM JAN. 1 1900 TO DEC. 31, 1i93.** TOTAL LOANS IIAVINr. INTFRFST. GRACF l'rRlnD ANIT MAIURITY INrORMATION AVAILAPLF. tLsFO Tr ((IMPUiE AVFRAGE TERMS.

o TOTAL OF ALL LOANS IN TH11S BQEAkIDOWN REGARDOLESS OF AVAIIABILITY or INIERESt. GRACE IERIoD. ANn MATURITY INFORMATION.

Table 4.3: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 2 of 4

SIRtlr,IIIpF AND TFRMS; nF FxTrRNAI. PirnLIr OFRr

coIMMIIMrNI' JIAN. 1. 19fi9 - DFC, 31. 1')53DFnt PFrAYAfliV IN rORFIGN CuIRRFNCY ANn Gnons

(IN TIItOUSANIIS or Il.i. lDOILARSI

AVFRAr.r TEPMS

PERIiol rNIIING; .............. . .........................................

IYt'l: nF Crm.niROP INIERrSI MAt Iti I I y r.RACE CiARNI GRANT TOTAL''-

(cf 1)1 11 (ICtIJNI F1y AMOUNI.. Xys) 4VwSi EiEMrNI %) EQUIVALENT AMOUNT. . . ................ . . . . .................... ... ... ....... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

&RfIPrAN DErv. RANK A 4 000 1. 1 .14 11 0 1R so

ITAl. MtlI I I AtRAl I OIANS SR 4C0MK) 11 2 3 4 31.0 1 59

fILAIERAl tOAN'1i8YANA 2n8 7.000 10.3 G 1 lf 2 47 299

TOTAL ITILAIERAL LOANS 288 7.CK) 10.3 S. 1 1.7 47 289

TCllAI 74 17 14 fi fi6 41c7 I0n . R 18.7 e5 346

7517Mli I ICAAIIERAI II OANS

CAt':AQIIQ AN IDE V. IIANK I .!172 * 1 .1' 1 720 R 5 f 37. 7 585 1.572

TOTAI. Mll I 11 AIFlJAI IlOANS 1.li77 4 457 720.R 5 8 37.7 585 1.572

IlIl.ATERAI. IlOANSCANAOA 1.1.1 * 4913 q a R 308 344

TOTAL 1ll.AltRAL IOANS 31.1 4c)..t 9.R 89.6 308 344

TOTAI. 7512 I.qI6 865 1." 715 C. C, 4h A R93 1.916

14)I?~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~MULIILATERAI. LOANS C

CAPRIII.AN DEV 11ANk 1.828 4,44 5 22.2 5.7 3A.3 701 1.82a 0

TOIAI MtIlI T11AlF1PAI tANS 1.R78 4. -145 27 7 5 7 38.3 701 1',82

TOTAL 74161 1.97 4.445 77 7 5 7 38.3 701 1.829

1I2MILIILATERAl IITANS

CARIRRFAN nrV IRANK R43 4 000 In I C, 3 39 2 330 843

101Al Mill IIIIAIIQAI LIIANS Rl3 4. 00 la 1 fi.3 3q 2 330 843

TOTAI 7?11 n. 1:1 4.000 n 1. I 6f1 .q 7 330 943

HONnSM1II.1 I llI.F I INIFR'S 773 8.0no 9 8 9 8 12 2 27 223

TOIAL UllN(I. 223 8.(000 9.R n R 17.2 27 223

MULTII.ATIEAI IlANhi

INC:UIl1S IN'IEASES 1)RIPING IIIS PFRIUO TO OFnTS WiliI oRIGINAl COMMITMENT DATES LRpM JAN. 1, 1900 TO DEC. 31. 1983.

OIIAL l(OANS IIAVING IN]IIirsi. GIIACI PrRII1O) ANO MATIPIIV INFtORMAIRON AVAILALFLr. USFD 10 COMPIIIE AVERAGE TERMS..4. TOTAL OF All. 1OANS IN TillS liprAkIlwN Rr(GARml-rsS Oir AVAILAnILITY (Ir INTERFSI, GRACE IrRinn. AND MAItURITY INFORMATION.

Table 4.3: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 3 of 4

STUWICTIURr ANfi TrQMS or rXIFRNAL PUBLIC DrERTCnMMIIMFNTS ,IAN. 1, 9969 - DEC. 31, 1983.OFRl RElAYARI.E IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GonOs

(IN T1I0111ANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)AVERAGE IFPMS

PERIOD ENDINcG. ............ .......... . . ...TYPE nF CQR TiOR INNTERrST MATIIR17Y G,RACF GRANT GRANT TOTAL**

CREnDITO COUNTRY AMniONT.. 1y% (YRS) (YRS) FI.EWFNII%) EOUIVALENT AMOUNT

CARIBBREAN DrV. RANK 1.b92 4.onoi 19.7 4.5 3R.4 612 1.592

lDtAL Mill II AIFRAI. MOANS 1.902 4.0(Y) 19.7 4.5 3R.4 612 1.592

TOTAL 7812 1,815 4.4q9 1R.5 5.1 F5.2 63q 1.815

7912MIII.1I1ATERAI lnANS

CARIBBEAN DEV. BANK 6.313 4.951 21.1 5 1 34 0 2.148 6.313

TOTAL MULTILAtFRAL lOANS 6.313 4.q51 21.1 59 7 34.0 2,141 6.313

TOTAL 7912 . G.313 4.951 21.1 5 1 34.0 2.148 6.313

8012sLIPPiiERS CREDiTS

IINIEI) KINGi)OM 1.317 7.500 7.3 0.8 7.2 94 1.312TOTAL SlUi'tIlERS, CREOITS 1,312 7. 5n 7.3 O.R 7.2 94 1.312

M1lTILATERAI IOANSCARABiFAN nFV RANK 2'811 4.M00O 20 1 4.r 3R.3 t.078 2.13

TOTAL Mli T I1 ATrRAL IlfANS 2,13 4.0no 70 1 4 3 38 3 1.078 2.813

TOTAl. 8012 4,12r 5. 113. 16.0 3.2 25.4 1.172 4,125

A112MULTILATERAL IOANS

CARIRBBAN OLV. RtANK I g3r, 4.000 20 4 5.5 .39 8 770 1.936

OPFC FlOWS I oo 0. SOO 9.7 3.2 42.5 425 1.000

TOTAL M1A.IIILAIrRAL LOANS 7 c9r. 2.80i 16.7 4 7 40.7 1.195 2.936

TnTAL 8112 2.93fi 2.80R 16.7 4.7 40.7 1.195 2,936

A212MtII TILAIEPAL IOANS

CARIBRFEAN (1FV. RANK 2.5c01 f 6.5 sqO 19.2 5.6 19.9 497 2.504

1OIAL MLII TI1AIERAL LnANS 2.054 v..f5qr, 19.2 5.6 1Q.9 497 2.504

TOTAI. 8212 2.fi04 S .59fi 19.7 5.fi 19.9 497 2.504

Ri37BONnS

MlLT IPi.E I ENnDRS 19 a.ooo 9.7 9.7 12.1 2 19

INCLIIOES INCIEAsEs OIIRING THillS SPrpion IO nErnT WITII ORIGINAL COMMITMFNI nATES FROM JAN. 1. 1900 10 DEC. 31. 19i3.TOTAI. LOANS HAVINGs INTERFSI. GRACE PFRIOD AND MAIURITY INWORMATION AVAILABLF, tISED TO CnMPIJTF AVERAGE TERMS.IO TOTAL or ALL LnANs IN T141S BRFAKnnWN REARQI1.FSS or AVAII.ARII ITY OF 1NTERFST. GRACE PERIDr. AND MAI1RITY INFORMATION.

Table 4.3: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES Page 4 of 4

sTRIICTIIJr AND IIRMS or FXTERNAL rUeLic DFrTCOAMHITMENTS JAN. I. 19f9 - DEC. 31. 1983 *nEDi RrPAVARI.F IN FnrE NrM CuRRFNCY ANI) flOODS

(IN TIl(IISANT15 nr u. S. DOLLARS)

AVERAGE IERMSPERIOD FNDING ..._

TYPE 01 CRIIl fnR INTERFST MATURIIY GRACE GRANT GRANT TOTAL-'.CRrni fUR COlUNIRY AMOITNIN (%I YASI (YRS) ELEMENI(%) EQUIVALENT AMOUNT

TOTAL BONDS 19 8.000 9.7 q.7 12.1 2 19

MlJLIILAtIRAL LOANSCARIInFAN niV RANK r5.717 4.191 27 1 5.3 42 9 2.450 5.717

TOTAL MIILTILAIERAL IlANS 5.717 4.191 27.1 5.3 42 9 2.450 5.717TOTAL .112 5, 7:1i 4.204 27.1 r 3 47. 8 2.452 5.736

TOTAL rXIFTNAI P1llf IC DIRT 37.q42 4 Rf64 21 0 5. 7 34.0 11.199 32.942

INCLUDtS INCREASES DURING 11115 PfRIOn 10 DlTIS WI ilII nRIGiNAL COMMITMFNI DAIES rEoM JAN. 1, 1900 TO DEC. 31. 1913.TOIAtL LOANS IIAVING; INTLRESt. GRACE PERIOD ANI) MATLJRTrY INFORMAIION AVAILABLE. USFD TO COMPUTE AVERAGE TERMS.

' TOTAI or AIL lOANS IN TitS RREAKDnWN REGARDIESS 0n- AVAIIARILITY nF INTEREST. GRACE PERInO. AND MATURITY INFORMATION.

- 71 -

Table 5.11 ST. VINCENT AND THE SRENADINES - tENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURESa,

(EC$ Nllllon

Estimate Projected

1977/75 1978/79 1979/SO 1960/I1 1981/B2 19S2/83 1S 93/84 1964/85

Expenditure er oeeds aid

Servlce. 25.3 36Z5 30.0 43.3 S7.0 62.2 69.6 76.9

Personal Emoluments 13.5 20.1 11.0 13.7 29.2 30.7 35.8 40.0

goods and Services 1.4 13.0 14.2 18.4 22.0 24.J 26.0 28.0

Interest 1.6 1.3 2.1 2.3 1.5 2.2 3.0 3.6

Ponslons and Oretultles 1.4 2.1 2.7 2.9 4.0 4.5 4.8 5.3

Subeidles 0.7 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.6

Departmental Enterprlisa 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.0 2.1 2.3 2.6 3.3

Public Enterprises and

Ficarclal Institutlons 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3

Transfer* I.S 1.3 1.4 2.4 S3o 3.4 4.5 S.O

Othor Public 0.1 0.4 0.3 - 0.4 0.6 06 0.7

Private (Non-profit

Institutioas 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3

Rest of the World 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.4 2.6 3.7 4.0

Total 2S.1 39.2 41.1 46.9 62.3 66.2 77.1 OS.S

,.. .. * . . *. ..... .... .. .... - . . O o M n w n E

a/ Relates to fiscal year endlig June 30.

Sources 1inlatry of Flnance, Planrlng and Development end mission estlmatee.

Nay 1964

- 72 -

Table 5.21 ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT REVENUE 5S

(ECS Million)

Est. Proj.

1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1950/81 1981/82 1952/83 1982/83 1964'8S

Direct Taxes S.6 B.7 10.7 12.6 16.0 21.7 20.4 22.7

Income Taxes 5.4 8.S 10.3 12.0 15.3 20.9 19.5 21.6

Property Taxes 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1

Indirect Taxes 16.3 20.1 25.2 25.6 33.7 40.8 48.7 53.0

Consumptlon Tax 3.0 3.3 4.0 4.1 6.4 7.9 8.4 9.0

Import Duties 6.8 8.0 10.6 10.6 11.2 13.1 14.7 16.3

Export Duties - 0.7 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.3

Stamp Duty on Imports 2.8 3.3 4.2 4.2 6.0 7.1 8.3 9.0

Other Taxes 3.7 4.8 5.6 6.5 9.1 11.8 16.1 17.4

Mon-Tat Revenue 6.4 5.0 3.6 5.9 8.2 8.0 9.3 10.0

Interest and rent 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3

Current Prof1its ECCA Profit) 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.3 2.3 2.3 2.9

Govt. Dept. 4 Pubiic Enterprlsoa 1.3 0.4 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.7 2.0

Other (fees, Fines, etc.) 4.4 4.0 6.0 2.4 3.9 3.8 4.1

Total 28.3 33.8 41.1 44.1 S7.9 70.5 78.4 S 5.7

a, Relates to Flscal Year ending June 30.

Sourcei Mtaistry of Finance, PlannIng end Development and mlsslon estimates.

May 1964

- 7 3 -

Table S.3s ST. VINCENT ANO THE GRENADINES - CENTRAL GOVERNNENT OPERATIOIIS

(EC$ MI11iD0)

Est. ProJ.

1977/78 1976/79 1979/80 1980/61 1981/82 1382/63 1913/S4 1984/85

Current Revenue 28.3 33.8 41.1 44.1 57.9 70.5 76.4 85.7

Current Expenditure 26.1 39.2 41.1 46.9 62.3 66.2 77.1 85.5

Current Account Surplus/Oeficit 0.2 -S.4 -- -2.8 -4.4 2.3 '.3 0.2

Budgetary Grants (current) 1.7 5.2 3.4 - - - -

Current Balance 1.9 -0.! 3.4 -2.- -4.4 2.3 1.5 0.2

Capital Expenditure S Net Lending 7.5 9.6 8.6 13.7 16.0 24.0 9.7 18.8

Overall Deficit -5.6 -9.8 -5.2 -16.5 -20.4 -21.7 -8.4 -16.6

Financing 5.6 9.8 5.2 16.S 20.4 21.7 8.4 16.6

Capital Grants 4.0 2.7 5.9 6.3 12.6 12.2 7.4 10.6

Net Foreign Borrowing -0.9 5.4 - 3.3 0.7 4.7 -0.7 2.4

Net ECCA/ECCB Borrowing - - - - 0.6 3.3 - -

Foreign Currency Holding C-increase) -1.1 0.6 -0.7 -1.2 1.3 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4

Not IMF - - 0.6 6.4 - - -O.S -2.1

iet Domestic Banks 2.7 0.: -1.5 0.3 3.1 4.4 1.0 -Residual 0.9 0.7 0.9 -0.6 1.9 -2.2 1.6 6.1

a/ Relates to fiscal year ending June 30.

Source: Ministry of Finance, Plunning and Oetelopment *nd miaBsun eatlmateoa.

May 1964

I - 74 -

Table 5.4: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES: SUMMARY OPERATION OF THE

GENERAL GOVERNMENT */

(ln ECS Million)

Est.

1977/78 1975/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1963/84

Operating Revenue 32.5 36.7 45.2 48.3 63.1 75.8 65.1

Tax revenue 21.9 28.8 35.9 38.2 49.7 62.5 69.1

Other 10.6 9.9 9.3 10.1 13.4 13.3 16.0

Operating ExpendItures 30.2 4194 41.5 47.3 63.0 69.2 78.2

Central government 28.1 39.2 40.7 46.3 61.8 67.7 76.5

Rest of General Government 2.1 2.2 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7

Current Account Balance 2.3 -2.7 3.7 1.0 0.1 6.6 6.9

Capital Revenue and Grante 5.7 7.9 9.3 8.3 12.8 12.2 7.4

Current granta 1.7 5.2 3.4 - - - -

Capital grants 4.0 2.7 5.9 8.3 12.8 12.2 7.4

Capital Expenditure I Net Lending 7.5 s.8 8.8 14.1 16.2 24.2 10.0

Capital expenditure 5.4 3.3 6.6 10.4 16.2 20.2 10.0

Net Lending 2.1 6.5 2.2 3.7 - 4.0 -

Overall Balance 0.5 -4.6 4.2 -4.6 -3.3 -5.4 4.3

Floenelng -O.S 4.6 -4.2 4.8 3.3 5.4 -4.3

Forelgn conceselonary loans (net) -0.9 S.4 - 3.3 0.7 4.7 -0.7

Net IMF (including SOR &ilocatlonl - - 0.6 6.4 - - -0.5

Vet ECCA/ECCB - - - - 0.6 3.3 -

Changes In ftorelgn assets -1.1 0.6 -0.7 -1.2 1.3 -0.7 -0.4

Net borrowing from domestic banks 0.9 -3.0 -3.9 -4.1 -1.3 0.9 -2.7

Other net domestic borrowing 0.6 1.6 -0.2 0.4 2.0 -2.8 -

a/ The General Government conalste of the Central Government, the Kingstown Board,

and tbe National Provident Fund. Figures up to and Including 1978/79 Included the

operations of tho Philatelic Services.

Sources MInistry of Finance, Planning and Oevelopment and mission estinatts.

Nay 1964

- 75 -

Table 5.5s St. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINESs SUMMARY OPERATION OF PUBLIC SECTORNONFINANCIAL ENTERPRISES a/

(in ECS MIllIon)

Est.1977/78 1978/79 1979/S0 1980/81 1981/62 1952/83 1983/84

Operating Revenue 28.1 29.1 36.5 53.0 57.7 63.7 68.6

Operating Expenditures 26.8 30.4 38.7 54.8 61.2 68.0 71.7

Current Account Balance 1.3 -1.3 -2.2 -1.8 -3.5 -4.3 -3.1

Capital Grants 0.4 0.6 0.4 6.S 1.1 2.6 0.8

Capital Expenditures and Net LendIng S.O 2.8 7.2 26.0 6.2 7.4 10.4

Capital Expenditures 4.6 2.5 6.2 24.9 4.9 5.7 9.3Net Lending Ct@ private sector) 0.4 0.3 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.1

Overall Balance -3.3 -3.5 -9.0 -21.3 -8.6 -9.1 -12.7

Financnlg tNRt) 3.3 3.5 9.0 21.3 8.6 9.1 12.7

Domestic Banks 1.1 3.4 S.0 3.7 6.6 3.7 6.5

ForeIgn Borrowing 0.6 0.4 S.8 15.8 2.1 2.2 6.4

Central Government 1.2 0.3 0.6 - -0.2 4.0 -0.2Other 0.4 -0.6 -2.4 1.8 0.1 -0.8

a/ Arrowroot Industry Association, Banana Growers Assoclation, Central Water and SewerageLtd.. Housing and Land Oevelopment Corporation, Marketing Corporation, Port Authority,Authority, Development Corporation, Diamond Dairy Compaisy, Electrielty ServicesPhilatelic Services, and Sugar Industry Ltd. Data on the basis of the financial years ofthe Individual enterprisee hve been adjusted to a financial year ending June 30. Flguresup to end Includl-g 1978/79 excluded the Port Authority (clraslsled under CentralGovernment) and the Philatelic Services (claesifled under general Government).

Soorces Various nonfinancIal enterprises as noted above.

Nay 1984

- 76 -

Table 5.6: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES: SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF TNE PUBLIC SECTOR

(ECS Millon)

1977/78 1978/79 1979/s0 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84

Current Revenue 60.6 67.6 81.7 101.3 120.8 139.5 153.7

General government a, 32.5 38.7 45.2 48.3 63.1 75.8 85.1

NonfInanclal Public EnterprIsea 28.1 29.1 36.5 53.0 57.7 63.7 68.6

Current Expenditure 57.0 71.8 80.2 102.1 124.2 137.2 149.9

General Government 30.2 41.4 41.5 47.3 63.0 69.2 78.2

Nomfinanceal Public Enterprlses 26.8 30.4 38.7 54.8 61.2 68.0 71.7

Current Account Bolance 3.6 -4.0 1.5 -0.8 -3.4 2.3 3.8

General Government 2.3 -2.7 3.7 1.0 0.1 6.6 6,9

NonfinancIal Public Enterprises 1.3 -1.3 -2.2 -1.S -3.5 -4.3 -3.1

Capital Revenue & Grants 6.3 8.5 9.7 14.8 13.9 14.8 8.2

General Government 5.7 7.9 9.3 a.3 12.8 12.2 7.4

Nonfinancial Public Enterprices 0.4 0.6 0.4 6.5 1.1 2.6 O.e

Capital Exponditureo & Net Lending 10.4 6.1 13.8 36.4 22.4 27.6 20.4

Capital Expenditures 10.0 5.8 12.8 35.3 21.5 25.4 19.0

Met Londing 0.4 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.9 2.2 1.4

Overall Surplus/Deficit -0.5 -1.6 -2.6 -22.4 -11.9 -10.5 -8.4

Flenancig 0.5 1.6 2.6 22.4 11.9 10.5 8.4

NMt External Borrowing -0.3 5.8 6.4 25.5 2.8 6.9 S.2

Not Domestic Borrowing 2.1 0.7 -1.5 1.8 7.8 4.3 3.6

Change In Foreign Assets C-increase) -1.1 0.6 -0.7 -1.2 1.3 -0.7 -0.4

Residual -0.2 -5.5 -1.6 -3.7 - - -

a/ The Csnera Iogvernment con oist of the Central Government, the [Ingstown Board,

the National Provident Fund and the Philatelic Services.

Source: Ministry of Finance, Planning and Development and mission estimates.

Nay 1964

- 77 -

Table 5.7t ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - FINANCING OF PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT

(ECS Million)

1977/78 1978/79 1979/S0 1980/81 1981/82 1982183 1983/84

Public Sector Capitol Expenditure 10.4 6.1 13.8 36.4 22.4 27.6 20.4

Capital Expenditures 10.0 5.5 12.8 35.3 21.5 25.4 19.0

Not Lending 0.4 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.9 2.2 1.4

Financing

Public Sector Savings 3.6 -4.0 1.5 -0.8 -3.4 2.3 3.8

Not External Financing 4.9 14.9 15.4 39.1 18.0 21.0 13.0

Capltal Revenue & grants 6.3 8.5 9.7 14.8 13.9 14.8 8.2

(Capital Revenue] tl.7) (5.2) (3.4) - - - -

CCapital Grants) (4.4) (3.3) (6.3) (14.8) (13.9) (14.8) (8.2)

Foreign Borrowing (Net) -0.3 5.8 6.4 25.5 2.6 6.9 5.2

CForeign Concessionary Loans, Not) (-0.3) t5.1) (S.) (19.1) (2.8) (6.9) (5.7)

Clnt IMF Borrowing) (-) C-) (O.6) (6.4) (-) C-) (-0.5)

Changes In foreign assets (-Increaso) -1.1 0.6 -0.7 -1.2 1.3 -0.7 -0.4

Net Domestic Borrowing 2.1 0.7 -1.5 1.8 7.8 4.3 3.6

Net ECCA/ECC8 - - - - 0.S 3.3 -

Banking System 2.0 0.4 1.1 -0.4 5.3 4.6 3.6

Other 0.1 0.3 -2.6 2.2 1.9 -3.6 -

Residual -0.2 -5.5 -1.6 -3.7 - -

Sources MInistry of Finance, Planning end Development and mlslon estimates.

May 1984

- 78 -

IhIIrnbi ~PiejushT*b -,l &Ml T _l L_1 ^X1 _§ L_1

11I* of U L l...bI20 2 - - _ 11 _ 353 _

Nma. *A~to. PIleno PreJeef 17.3 3.7s 1.5 103 10.10 - 30. MM._Vkulkm W El 306.3 30E." - - - - - -bte 30305111 team hoep 103.4 INI.Z 191.1 11111.1111 2§.31113.0 130.= 3A 35.3E.glr at J.L6 .3w W - - - - - - -nolarn ae Pi clal. II I=A 3J .0 - - - - - - -

Mitaman Soe,E I am - 0.11 - - - - -

brnwrtlrn of *bSIs Cromm Sam3 ons. - m= win-

AUIginIm e.3.0

offif Sr ow 217.0 311.4 043. - - -

bfgII to Pw,Sow a Ine SeMell1 =in Buis me" 3gJ117 365.4 - 1, - 23Vlm beIbtflq bt 4*a 4.3 - sM o . - U -M1,6.31 "mu aaU .M I26.3 -33.6 30. * MP 730. -

_k.3 _gb _ 1 45 35.3 - 31. 3_. _ _ _

Ewe E"jod. 4.3 6.3 a "C Nm SM - . UL -C1b ma PeUr" _WUm * _ aP w

__* tIb 6 - - _ 30.3 _* _ _0. _.Irnrn twed0 - -< -IJ n1. 3 - - -a -anmm_g P.,M _, w_ _

of S Ps lwain - mmak

b eers tLe tlr0

= pm t _rep 3 - 40 - 0 - - -

=_~iu _ et~~ -| _ - - D3. no. - - - --SIr - dUO19 31 |.3 - 13.3 M M1.1 .n 2.13 - * -

e I pt leoreji 111.4 - -. _ _ _

_-. 1 .1 C t "JD . - -s o ' s Ip.~I r11 3. 3. - -a -a - - - -u N$6*Vroi rA6.300M 40.3 40 4011.3 4.13 -. SiDJ 73 Sloan LOW IV 133 53M 131.3 333 - -

*_11_&lX L_o ef Cfesst _ _X_w

__tbltdleer 1 i 01 3 - 303.70 Jo -Inrn u_h_k t eWetd e pIy -_ _ 73. -_ _

_br . _.0 L_ri W._ 3 _ . - - -

mew bIg - - - 7A - 3AI ARM MO

306.rineet F: _ M 3. SAO

s -- s s--w *.t DJ?D amD - m Vi _ __

11mmusu W1 miIpUmn eM~ SNa SU.S3 13.0M 33.3 301.3 * 303. 330.74 673.

we_ b bfm t n3 . 4.3 1.1 - - - -rNP %M of ViZ-s ad OP" AuLl 7M. "S"S -mi Ja6 l_I Gua II.

bbIet _ef wS.u, 31.34.1e 13.41 333DM ,32 J131.14 *1.6IIJ

_mm Pm 361_a 11n1111 _1 UiNu wui.t 3007 _03110 _Ned U....

II,~. U eI OlIedg VA%. maeope of Felo. 9Imkg j itelaet c Millio euihb.

- 79 -

At.naeam..t 20Teale SA.

S1. VINCENT AND T1H C313A1316, NICEFLLAIU CAPITAL 11P3301N761. 13121S11.10414S

----------- ---- 01libersoe-@ .........

Tale! 1.4.r.sl Lose3

tIsas@

W.I. Trailnng 1t7.301.15 79.331.77 ,8.11.31

0De Fellowsh1i 14.391.34 13.716.Z4 3,273.70

pr.qram Spp*rt 12.670.00 - 13.670.0

31l.3 preJe.t 1.I699.84 _ 11.11.64

Land Aaqaleltl.u 144.63.19 - 144.639.03

"l ... 1.e,r. me..l*po.Rt 30.044.Mg - 30,044.371ydr. Pr,ojet 143.02 - 1.299.02

Es.e.cl.s. MI..try of Pl...ee 4.615.23 3.746.57 206.72

"love Myer* 1l.. @rsl.ty 1,632.60 _ 1,662.66

store G.. *.bb1llltetlee 4.431.46 4.491.40 -

Imprveamesl of 3ee4d - males 1leaods l0317.3S 10.6.96 11.10,.

Ces.all F-J9et. 43.109.S0 - 43.100:.1

x.p.Ire 237.7 394.7047

tqelpmt A Spares 2 3.6* .72I.30rac 721,712.4F.o.rese .t1 Pe -rs S.,1tZ.47 - 516,129.47

TETAL 3,761,1172.2 1,712_074.53 2,003,790.16

1931/64

C..a,s.u m.. of O...lead lT.re.1 P.Ssa. s.o.6.. 609.000

Wis. 913/1ST 181.63S 163.656

Oil P.Il ....alp 16,165.4 18.166.45 -

Pr."re. Iupp.r3 21.13763 - 21,527.2 3

Lead Asq.&.ltiL. Pep=.rty Ce-@--etle. 437.436 - 437,430

Lemilug Croft Lamp*- Irs l a S 1 2.3 163.0

Caa.Ir.aIl.a .o Jt.1 1 - UsIa. lends 279 .1- 273.1

*... ai t.trel Croft 330.006 350,600

Ava W I. C.re.az vera. 422,66 213.O10 212.00.l

11I.o.r.I Offlee. Asse-. dell... 6.437.50 -4.997.9.

NIXP 3653 314,221.67 I 1.2S1.O7MSap*se/M.dlal I -.Igate 236,313.12 2339316.13 -

U7dr.I.31.e DISc CelIstI.a lE,o @....o 1@@.oio.os -lqalpm.at let. Presealate Pr,ces,3n - 730.000.6

Pa. a*7 ,..rla (Bt P.x eaea@l {ag 7r .666z,00. - 13,00.66

TOTAL 1.3. . 1.".447.23 165021.4a

:e:.lvetI . Overlead 4Teaf.al P.3ta. 30,606 66.60

-allReol Doo.eiattI Contra 30.06 30.06 -

L.oe fosr Ceeommlty Conte. -t Seld m.ay 1.660 3,66Lerd Aae:elglea . P, lIIIJelrbaII 21.60 - 266,000PIrleall Measleg PraJac 400.06 - 4a0,600Lead Asqalaltie. cSatla.4 Tale.

1EIelaaE per& a Verma .10..3t0 . 200.060 -

Ulalatrg *r idalcIle. 1.610.363 - t.3820.00

st. Rol .7 UlaI. ty of T7.4. & Agrlaaltar. 6

3.qai See 6ew.I.p..u 260,633 - 260.660Le.a AGqelellla raera Ce_etIaa lqO.009 - 200,600

Lhdre elAoIIat& 1

- Prep (4105.11.0 0,06 16.6 _

*t.eee a1 C.f alcwla 0"10.666 al|3 -, ....... *ezLeasdlag Craft some 6eadl. 160.666 le0..:::-

Alrperl lmrevsmaal ~~~~~1.30,6co: 1.066.033 *6.erleve. Ilelil *.estr 30.00 - 10.000

:al.. Island "elta tCole S..::. - 50.660

roost ae Patrel Creat 533.332 5 33,32

TOTAL 6,276_232 2,626,060 3,4463.32

MI..llae...preleestmet .al.aded In PeejestSlao fa. lsa4/6G

Laad AaqalalIlea - laiseIrlal £atea1 1.110.063 -

Olamaad ledvatrlel 3.3.1.. 460.666 - 400.300

Oragediela - laW.aalratar.z 1.660.636 1,066.006

Sleelel leed CeautrGslI.. Pvrg 1,60.e0 1.5,0@60Caaelr"' * @of sKgIss tPIma ash. 2.600.063 -

latr..Sreetr - .P.F._eraal.ra 36d.mes.tl .. . 0,05 1 ,16.06I 6,0@ 0 -

Perk mill Msla|g" Pejat ate,26.66 - 230.600

P.rea-ctla Equipment - CBA 210,063 - 2S0.300

TOTAL .090.609 7_116Sq00 550,000

- 8o

Table 5.9: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADIMES - PROPOSED NEW PROJECTS, 1984/85

(ECsDO0)

Project Source of Projected Dlsbursments

Cost External Totml External Local

Financing

Central Government

Agricultural Dlverslifcation & Promotion 6750 USAIO(6750 1600.00 1600.00 -

Home Economiecs Ext. Facility CLayon) CIOA/MAF 100.00 100.00 -

Agriculture Feeder Road Ill 19570 COBSI 7617.50) 2000.00 2000.00 -

Natural Resource Management O. AS 120.00 120.00 -

Purchase of Fishing Vessel 1620 Tolwn(l1620) 1620.00 1620.00 -

Craft Development Production UnIt UNESCO 72.90 72.90 -

Georgetown-Fancy Rd.-Phase I (Windward Hyw) SOD 750.00 750.00 -

Subtotal 6262.90 6262.90 -

Rest of Public Sector

Banana Growers Asociatlion

Banana Development Program VI 1998.00 OO(I998) 400.00 400.00 -

Input Revolving Fund 2166.00 COBI1949.401 1200.00 1198.00 2.00

DEVCO

Students Loan V 1350 COBtI 350) 13S.00 135S.00 -

ConstructIon of Factory Shell 1000 Oev. Bond 1000.00 1000.00 -

VINLEG

Power Project 5054.40 C0B(4549) 4549.00 4549.00 -

Cuub.rland Hydroelectric 89370.00 IDA/CIOA etC. 7000.00 6480.00 520.00

(66420)

CWSA

Water Development: Installation of Moters 1488.00 COBC1339.20) 970.00 950.00 20.00

Water Cetchment Rebob-Bequla CIOA/NAF 41.00 41.00 -

Georgetown/Byres - Water Supply System 1620.00 Tslwan(1620) 1620.00 1620.00 -

Now Storage Building 70.00 Local 70.00 - 70.00

Purchase Equipmei. *tc. 490.00 Lace 490.00 - 490.00

Marketing Corporation

Chill Storage Facility 54.00 C0848.60) 54.00 48.60 5.40

Sugar Factory

Rum Diatellry 4050.00 COBt4012) 900.00 900.00 -

Housing and Land Corporation

Gorse mangrove Phase 11 810.00 BODCI10) 200.00 200.00 -

Subtotal 18629.00 17521.60 1107.40

TOTAL NEW PROJECTS 24891.90 23784.50 1107.40

Source: Central Planning Unit, Ministry of ';inance, Planning and Development and mission estimates.

May 1984

- 81 -

Table 5.10 ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - SUMMARY OF PUBLIC SECTOR

CAPITAL EXPENDITURES BY SECTORS

CEC$OOO0

1952/83 1983/84 1984/85

I Productive Sectors 2,990 2,618 12,086

Agriculture, Forestry and Flshing 2,409 1,611 5,920

Manufacturing A Tourism 51 1,007 6,166

11 Physical Introstructure 13,386 9,703 20,927

Transport and Inf ratructure 13,100 6,926 9,378

Power 286 2,775 11,549

III Other Infrastructure 4,948 2,795 5,056

Water Supply and Sewerage - 927 3,755

Health 4,405 1,359 -

Educatlon 492 512 1,101

Housing 51 - 200

IV Other 4,123 3,873 6,666

AdelnlstratIon and Security 217 209 240

Other 3,906 3,664 6,426

Total 25,447 18,992 44,735=manna. ****u** ====Mo

Central Government 19,990 9,693 15,649

Other Public Sector 5,457 9,299 25,886

Sources: Tables.8 and 5.9.

way 1984

- 82 -

Table 5.11s ST. VINCENT ANO THE GRENADINES - SUMMARY OF PUBLIC SECTORINVESTNENT PROGRAM BY SOURCE OF FINANCING

(EC '000)

l9S1/82 19S2/n3 1983/84 1984/85

Central Government 17,174 19,990 9,693 18,849

External 14,724 17,620 7,632 14,270

Local 2,450 Z;370 2,061 4,579

Other Public Sector 4,282 5,457 9,299 25,686

External 2,908 4,731 8,079 23,676

Local 1,374 726 1,220 2,210

Total 21,456 25,447 18,992 44,735

External 17,632 22,3SI IS,711 37,946

Local 3,824 3,096 3,251 6,789

(Ac Prrcentege of Total Investment)

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

External 82.2 57.8 52.7 84.5

Local 17.8 12.2 17.3 15.2

Sources Tables S.5 and 5.9.

May 1964

- 83 -

Teable 6.: -T. VINCENT AND THE GRENAOINES - CONSOLIDATED CONNEHCIA.L BANK OPERATIONS d/

(ECS millien)

December 3S Maerc 31

1979 _1160 5l6l 1362 1963 1983 1964

Not Foreign Aeeste _.7 2.4 7.8 -S.S -5.5 -5.2 -9.5

Aets 33.3 34.0 40.8 33.3 26.4 33.3 24.1

Foreign currency beldingse (1.9) t2.S) C2.3) (.5) (1.7) (2.7) (1.2)

Clielm on ECCt 125.2) (11.2) (13.2) (6.0) (4.0) (6.0) (5.7)

of whicht cerrency holdi ngc /3.6/ /4.2/ /3.93 /4.0/ /4.0/ /3.0/ t3.11

Cleaim on ECC6 area banks (7.3) (22.0) (26.7) (22.6) (8.6) 114.2) (6.2)

Cleime on banoke broed (4.1) C6.8) (7.2) t10.0) (6.6) (7.S) (S.3)

Other (4.6) (2.4) (1.3) (1.2) (7.5) (2.5) (5.1)

Llebl'itlee -26.6 -32.6 -33.0 -42.8 -34.2 -36.5 -33.5

Balance due to ECCB 1--) C--) (-1.3) (-5.7) (-191) (-2.1) (-2.6)

Oelence due to ECCt are benks C-1.3) C-2.2) (-2.2) (-2.7) (-2.4) t-l.9) C-2.5)

Sieance 4.0 to benke abroed 1-6.2) C-S.S) (-7.4) 1-6.4) (-S.4) t-5.0) (-3.5)

Nonresident depoelts (-25.2) (-23.3) t-23.2) (-26.0) C-24.5) (-26.7) (-25.3)

Domeud /2.41 /4.3/ /3.9/ /3.0/ /3.6/ /4.7/ /3.6/

Savings /13.6/ /25.2/ 1S6.D/ /19.6/ /16.8/ /11.4/ /17.6/

Time /3.1/ /4.5/ /3.3/ /4.6/ /4.12 /4.6/ /4.6/

Net Ogmestic Assets S4.3 63.7 67.1 69.6 96.7 66.1 104.5

Net credit to Central Covernmnt 11.2 6.7 J.3 14.7 14.6 14.2 16.9

Tressery blIla CI-) (-) CO.5) (.0) C(.0) tl.01) (.0)

Debentures (0.7) C0.6) (2.0) (0.4) (5.0) C4.9) (4.8)

Leen, end advences lncleddig

overdreft C(.9) (4.1) C4.7) (11.0) (6.7) (6.8) (6.5)

Special deposit requirement b/ (2.9) (2.1) (2.3) (2.5) C7.7) (2.C) C7.3)

Soveremet depoelts -) (-0.3 C-0.1) (-.2) (-0.2) (-5.) :-.2) (-3.3)

Net credit t. other public eector -10.4 -7.4 -S.0 -0.4 -0.J -2.0 0.2

Credit (5.5) C(11.5) (9.2) (30.5) (35.4) (29.7) (37.5)

Deposti (-I (-19.9) (-19.0) (-24.2) (-30.9) (-36.2) (-31.7) (-37.7)

Net credit to nenbenk finenclcl

intermediaries -2.2 -2.6 -4.2 -5.4 -4.1 -5.1 -4.1

Credit (0.3) (0.3) (0.6) (0.3) CO.7) (1.5) (0.6)

Deposit (-l (-2.5) (-3.1) (-4.8) 1-6.3) (-4.8) (-6.5) C-4.7)

Credit to privete eector 55.3 69.0 74.8 b6.2 93.4 51.4 203.4

Interbank fleet 1.0 0.6 -1.5 2.3 0.3 -- 0.5

Claims C1.2) C2.3) C4.D) (7.7) (2.4) (2.6) C(.1)

Liabli tlee C-0.2) C-2.2) C-5.5) 1-5.4) (-1.1) t-1.6) C-0.5)

Net uscleseif led assets -0.6 -2.4 -4.6 -7.6 -12.7 -10.4 -12.3

Assets (7.0) (9.0) (14.5) 121.1) (16.9) (16.3) (22.2)

LiabilitIes (-7.) (-112.4) t-23.2) (-26.7) (-29.6) (-26.7) C-34.5)

Liebilitios to Privete Sector C/ Sl.0 66.1 75.C 80.3 30.9 82.S 35.2

Demand depoilto 11.6 12.2 14.1 23.3 25.2 15.4 26.4

Savinge deposite 34.1 SC.8 43.0 42.6 46.6 43.0 50.4

Time deposite 15.3 15.1 1.5 24.2 27.2 24.5 28.3

el incldes operetions of the lareley's Benk, the Netional Ceme_rull Beank, the Royel Benk of Ceneda.

the Sank of Neva Scetie, end the Cenedlen loperiel Seek of Co_eree.

b/ As of September 1983, the speleli dep,olt requireomnt for commerclal banks wee Incroseee from 2.SO5

to 7.50Z of the totel depesits.

c/ Deposits of other public entities and finenciil Institutions cre eacluded.

Sourcees Eeat Caribbean Centrel Bank, comercial benks. and IMF Staff estimetes.

Nay 1584

- 84 -

Tabl- 6.2. ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - THE FOREIGN COMMERCIAL BANK OPERATIONS a/

IEC$ million)

December 3i March Sl1S79 7S1O 3951 1392 1933 1983 1964

Net Foreign Assets 0.5 -0.7 6.7 -5.9 -10.1 -4.1 -12.4

Assetg 26.4 27.6 37.2 29.5 19.7 29.7 17.1

Foreign currency holdings C1.81 (2.23 (1.53 11.41 (1.4) (1.61 11.0)

Claims on ECCB (14.3) (10.0 (12.6) (7.31 (3.2) (7.5) (4.5)

of whicha currency holdings /3.3/ /3.4/ /3.S/ /3.3/ /3.2/ /2.3/ /2.2/

Clalms on ECCB area bheks C7.3) (11.03 (16.7) (12.51 (C.63 (14.1) (6.0)

Claims on banks abroad C3.0) (4.41 (6.23 (B.33 (5.2) C6.73 (3.91

Other '' (--' '' ) (1.3) ("-) (1.43

Liabilitles -2S.9 -26.3 -30.5 -35.4 -29.8 -33.8 -29.5

Balance due to ECCB (-) (--1 C-0.93 (-l.ll (--) C-1.1) (--)

Balance due to ECCe area banke (-1.3) (-2.2) (-1.13 (-2.71 (-2.4) C-1.91 C-2.53

Balonce due to banks abroad (-S.9) (-5.1) (-7.4) C-6.23 C-5.1) C-4.7) (-3.4)

Nonresident deposits (-18.7) (-21.0) C-21.1) C-25.41 (-22.33 (-26.3) (-23.6)

Demand /2.2/ /2.0/ /2.6/ /2.6/ /2.1/ /3.4/ /2.3/

Savings /13.6/ /15.1/ /16.0/ /19.6/ J1C.aJ /1J.4/ /17.6/

Time /2.9/ /3.9/ /2.5J /3.2/ /3.4/ /3.3/ /3.7/

N:t Domestic Assets 55.5 60.3 60.6 72.7 64.B 73.8 70.3

Not credit to Central Government 3.6 3.7 4.2 8.6 12.7 9.0 13.2

Treasury bill (--3 -- (.5j (1.0) (1.0) C(.I) CI.0)

Debentures (0.7) (0.6) C1.O) (0.4) (0.9) (1.0) (0.9)

Loans and advances Including

overdrelt (1.3) (1.1) (0.5) (4.7) (3.7) (4.5) (3.5)

Special deposit requiremeRt b/ (1.9) (2.1) (2.3) (2.5) (7.7) (2.6) (7.3)

Government deposits C-) (-0.3) (-O.I) (-O.I) C--) c-0.6) (-0.3) (-0.1)

Het credit to othar public sector 1.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4

Credit (1.6) (') (' '' '' '--' '

Depostl C-) 11 -0.3) (-0.3) (-0.4) (-0.3) (-0.4) (-0.4)

Net credit to nonbank financial

Intermedlarles -1.9 -2.5 -3.5 -5.2 -4.1 -5.1 -3.9

Credit (0.3) (0.3) (0.5) (0.8) (O.5) (s.2) (0.5)

Deposit (-3 (-2.2) (-3.1) (-4.0) -6.0) (-4.E, (6..6) (-4.4)

Credit to private sector S0.9 53.5 61.8 67.2 77.9 72.1 51.2

Interbank float 0.6 0.5 -1.6 2.7 O.S -0.1 0.4

Clalma (0.5) (2.5) (3.5) (7.3) (1.0) C1.0) (0.9)

LIabilltlo (-0.2) (-2.0) (-S.4) (-4.6) (-0.5) (-1.1) (-0.5)

Not unclassified assets 0.7 -0.6 -- -0.2 -1. -1.7 -0.Z

Assets (6.6) C(.2) (17.6) (15.3) (13.2) (14.6) (17.4)

Llabilities (-6.1) (-5.8) C-17.5) C-15.5) (-15.0) (-16.3) C-17.6)

Liabilities to Prlvate Sector c/ 56.0 59.6 67.3 66.8 74.8 69.7 77.9

Demand deposits 10.5 11.3 13.2 11.3 13.6 13.7 14.6

Savings deposlts 32.3 35.7 30.7 37.2 41.2 37.5 42.3

Time dopogltg 12.9 12.6 15.4 16.3 20.0 18.5 21.0

at Includes operations of the Bercily's Bank. the Royal Bank of Caneda. the Bank of NDva Scotia, and the

Canadien Imperinl Bank of Commerce.

b As oe September 1983, the special depoalt requiremnt for coxmercial banks was Increased from 2.S50

to 7.50C of the tetol deposits.

cJ Depoits of other public entities and filencial instItutlons are %xcluded.

Sourcess East Caribbean Central Bank, foreign commerclel banks, and IMF Staff estimates.

May 1954

- 85 -

Table 6.3s ST. VINCENT AND THE CREIADINES - IHE NATIONAL COMMERCIAL SANK OPERATIONS

(EC$ mililon)

Oscember 3i March 31

1979 1980 lost 1902 _ 163 1913 1984

Hot Foreign Assets 6.2 3.1 1.1 -3.6 4.3 -1.1 2.9

Asset* 69. 6.4 3.6 3.8 0.7 3.6 7.0

Foreign currency holdings (0.11 (0.4) (0.4) (0.t ) (0.3) (0.13 (0.2)

Claims on ECCI (0.9) (1.2) (0.4) (0.7) (0.63 (0.7) (0.91

of whichs currency holdings /0.3/ /0.8/ /0.4/ /0.7/ /0.J / /0.7/ /0.9/

Clals oan ECCB area banks (-) (--3 (--3 (0.1) (--1 (0.1) (0.2)

Claims an bank6 abroad (1.1) (2.4) (1.0) (1.7) (1.4) (t.2) (2.0)

Other (4.8) 12.4) (1.e) (1.2) (6.2) (1.5) 13.7)

LIabilItle -0.7 -3.3 -2.5 -7.4 -4.4 -4.7 -4.1

Balance due to ECCB -) 1-- (-0.41) (-4.6) C-1.9) (-1.6) (-1.0)

Balance due to ECCB area banka s- 1- 1-- C--) (--3 (--3 c__

Balance due to banks abroad (-0.3) (-0.4) (--3 (-0.23 (-0.3) (-0.3) (-0.1)

Nonresident denosits (-0.4) C-2.9) (-2.1) (-2.6) (-2.2) C-2.6) C-2.2)

Demand /0.2/ /2.3/ /1.3/ /1.2/ /1.5/ /1.3/ 1./

-avingii 1-- - - -- _ _

Time /0.2/ /0.6/ /0.8/ /1.4/ /0.7/ /1.3/ /0.9/

Not Domestic Asseta -1.2 3.4 7.2 17.1 11.6 14.3 14.3

Nat credit to Central Government 7.6 3.0 4.1 6.1 1.9 5.2 3.7

Treasury bills I--) I*) I() (--3 (-I3 ()

Debentures I--) (--1 (-- I-) (4.13 (3.9) (3.9)

Loans and adwances Including

overdraft (7.6) (3.0) (4.2) (6.33 (3.0) (2.3) (3.0)

Special deposit requirement a/ I) t--t) (--3 (--(

Government deposlts (- (--) ) t-0.1) t-0.2) C-5.2) (-1.0) (-3.2)

Net credit to other public sector -12.0 -7.1 -4.7 -- -0.5 -1.6 0.6

Credit (7.9) (11.6) C19.2) 130.5) (35.4) C29.7) (37.9)

Depostl (-) (-11.1) (-18.7) (-23.9) (C30.5) (-35.1) (-31.3) (-37.3)

Not credit to nonbank financial

Intermedleries -0.3 -- -0.7 -0.2 -- -- -0.2

Credit (--3 (--(0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) (0.1)

Deposit 1-) (-0.3) I-) (-0.8) (-0.3) (-0.2) (-0.3) (-0.3)

Credit to prlvate sector 4.4 9.2 13.0 I9.0 21.5 19.3 22.2

lterbank float 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.1

CliIm (0.4) (0.3) (0.2) (0.43 (0.43 (0.6) (0.2)

Liabilities (--) (-0.2) C-0.1) (-0.68 C-0.6) C-0.5) (-0.1)

Met unclassified assets -1.3 -1.e -4.6 -7.4 -10.9 -8.7 -12.1

Assets (0.2) (-O.) t(0.0) (2.0) (3.7) (3.7) (4.0)

Liabilities 1-1.5) C-2.6) (-5.4) (-10.2) C-14.6) 1-12.4) (-16.9)

LIabilitles to Private Sector bJ 5.0 6.5 8.3 13.5 16.1 13.2 17.2

Demand deposits 0.8 0.9 0.9 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.8

SavIngs deposits 1.e 3.1 4.5 5.6 7.4 5.5 8.1

Time deposlts 2.4 2.5 3.1 5.9 7.2 6.0 7.3

e/ The National Commerciel Bank Is emompted from the special deposit requirement.

b/ DOeposits of other public entitles and financial Institutions are excluded.

Sources The National Comerclal Bank (NCB).

May 1904

- 86 -

Table 6.4: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - DISTRIBUTION OF COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS AND

ADVANCES TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR a/

(ECS milion)

December 31 March 31

1977 1978 1979 l96O 1981 1962 1983 19S3 1984

Total 36.3 51.3 59.6 77.4 69.8 109.9 127.9 117.3 133.0

Agriculture 2.1 2.7 3,3 7.7 6.1 9.3 9.7 8.2 10.0

ManufacturIng 5.6 8.3 7.7 10.2 14.4 19.9 28.1 24.0 26.9

Distributive trades 7.7 9.4 14.6 15.3 16.9 17.2 14.S 18.0 22.0

Tourism 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.6 Z.S 2.9 2.5 2.3

Transport 1.7 2.5 3.8 3.6 4.7 5.1 7.6 6.1 8.4

Public utilitle 0.6 1.S 2.1 4.6 3.9 4.6 S.S 4.7 4.9

Building and construction 2.1 S.1 5.0 5.7 6.0 7.0 8.6 8.1 8.4

Personal 14.2 16.9 16.3 20.0 25.6 26.7 33.0 29.6 32.1

Othor Advances 2.6 3.2 4.9 6.0 9.6 15.6 17.5 15.9 18.0

CAs Percent of To.al)

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Agriculture 5.5 5.3 5.5 9.9 6.6 8.5 7.6 7.0 7.5

Manufacturlng 14.6 16.2 12.9 13.2 16.0 18.1 22.0 20.S 20.2

Distributive trades 20.1 1C.3 24.4 19.6 16.6 15.7 11.6 IS.3 16.6

Tourism 4.4 3.3 3.5 2.7 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.7

Transport 4.4 4.9 6.4 4.7 5.2 4.6 6.1 5.2 6.3

PublIc utilities 1.6 2.9 3.5 6.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.0 3.7

Building and construction 5.5 9-9 8.4 7.4 6.7 6.4 6.7 6.9 6.3

Personal 36.1 32.9 27.3 25.6 28.5 26.1 25.8 25.4 24.2

Othor Advances 5.6 6.3 6.2 10.3 10.7 14.2 13.7 13.6 13.5

a/ Includes lonse to nonresldents snd nonbank financial InstitutIons.

Sourcet East Carlbbren Central Bank.

May 1964

- 87 -

Table 6.5s ST. VINCENT MD THE GRENADINES - INTEREST RATE STRUCTURE

(I. Percent)

December 31 March 31

1977 1971 1379 1960 l9ol 1982 1983 1984

Deposits

Savings 21-3 2X-3 2X 25 2X 21-S 21-5 ZX-S

Time

3 mont$b 3X-5 3X-5 3Y-5 3-3X 3-4X 4-5X 4-SX 4-5X

3-6 months 4-SY 4-55 4-5Y 3X-4 3X-5 4X-6X 41-6 4-6

6-12 montha 4-6 4-6 4-6 3X-4X 3X-5Y SX 5-7X 4X-7X

Lending

Prime rate UY-9 8X-9 65-9 S-9 a-9 9-10 9-12 9-12

Other .. .. .. 10 10-12X 12-14X 12-14X 11-14X

Certal conumer loans

ndor ECS14,500 .. .. .. .. 14X 14X 14X 14X

Treasury bill rate .. .. . . .. .... 9.

Sourcoes The Barclay's Bank, the National Commercial Bank, the Royal Bank of Canada, the Canadian

Imperial Bonk of Commerce. mnd the Sank of Nova Scotia.

may 1964

- 88 -

Table 6.6i ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - EASTERN CARIIBEAN CENTRAL BANK

lEC4S mil ion)

O-cember 31 March 31

1979 1980 191e 1982 1983 1963 I9P4

Net Internatlenel Reserves 167.4 145.2 14.8 133.8 134.8 153.4 167.1

Assets 210.6 212.3 161.4 133.8 136.1 153.4 168.2

Flied ODposits and mney at call _/ (139.3) C93.9) (81.5) (IS.9) M12.1) C12.7) C(9.2)

Reglonal notes in process of redemption (5.7) C6.2) (2.6) C3.2) (O.6) I2.2) (0.?)

Other *scurities b, (65.6) (112.2) (97.1) (114.7) (123.4) C13S.5) (88.3)

Liabili ties -43.2 -67.1 -32.6 - -1.3 -- -1.1

Balance due to bank abroad C/ C-43.2) t-67.1) (-32.6) C-) (-1.3) t--) t-l.lt

Net Position with Bonks In ECCB Area -89.2 -61.6 -55.6 -46.3 -50.6 -57.3 -78.4

Assets e.7 6.5 7.2 11.2 8.3 5.5 2.5

Loans to comercial banks (6.S) C4.2) (4.8) (8.6) (5.4) (2.8) C-)

Depoaits with commercial banks (2.2) C2.3) (2.4) (2.61 (2.9) (2.7) (2.5)

Liabilities -97.9 -68.1 -62.5 -57.S -S8.9 -62.8 -80.9

Currencyt notes and coins (-24.0) (-26.5) (-23.5) (-28.4) (-29.3) C-17.1) (-18.9)

St. Vincent /3.6/ /4.2/ /3.9/ /4.0/ /4.0/ /3.0/ n3.1/

Other /20.4/ /22.3/ /19.6/ /24.4/ /25.3/ /14.1/ /1S.8/

Deposits C-73.9) (-41.6) C-39.3) C-29.1) (-29.6) (-45.7) (-62.0)

Oemand /7.9/ /12.9/ /13.1/ /17.8/ /22.9/ /21.2/ /30.6/

Fixed /66.0/ /28.7/ /26.2/ /11.3/ /6.7/ /24.5/ /31.4/

Not Domestic Assets 13.3 13.9 18.4 24.3 31.0 17.3 25.6

Central governmnt tset) 33.5 40.3 45.9 53.2 56.0 53.8 S6.4

St. Vincent Treasury bills (2.6) C3.1) (3.6) (5.9) (5.9) (5.9) (5.9)

Other Treasury bille (16.8) (20.2) (22.9) (28.7) (31.5) (29.3) (31.9)

St. Vincent debentures (1.5) (1.5) (1.1) (1.1) (1.9) (1.1) (1.9)

Other debentures (12.6) (CS.5) (18.3) (17.51 (16.7) (17.5) C16.7)

Liabilitles to nonesnetery

Internationil organizations -0.4 -7.7 -2.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -1.2

Net uncesI* la *ed assets -19.8 -18.7 -25.0 -27.5 -23.8 -35.5 -29.6

Assets (1.9) (4.0) (3.7) (8.5) (9.9) (6.3) (2.2)

Liabiiltlies -21.7) (-22.7) (-28.7) (-36.0) C(33.7) (-41.8) (-31.8)

Currency In Clrculation 91.5 97.5 111.6 111.8 115.2 113.4 114.3

In St. Vincent 12.9 12.9 I5.4 17.5 17.2 17.7 18.4

Estimates of notes and colns Issued (16.S) 17.1) (19.3) (21.5) (21.2) (20.7) (21.5)

Leass commercial banks' cash holdings (-3.6) (-4.2) (-3.9) C-4.0) (-4.0) (-3.0) (-3.1)

In other ECCe area countrles 76.0 82.0 93.6 91.7 95.4 93.1 93.3

Estimato of notes and coins Issued (96.4) (104.3) (113.2) (116.1) (120.7) (107.2) (109.t)

Leass commercial banks' cash holdinge t-20.4) (-22.3) (-19.6) (-24.4) (-25.3) C-14.1) (-15.8)

Coins In lormar mmber ceuntries 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

a/ As of March 1964, the figure Includes aecuritles held under repurchase agrsemnts with the Federal

Reserwe Bank of New York.

h/ For December 1982 and the subsequent years. the figure Includes credit balance with CARICON

Multilateral Clearing Facility. and as of March 1984, eacludes securities held under repurchase

agreements with the Federel Reserve Bank of Now York.

c/ *Abroad' meaning outside ECCB ares.

Sources Eastern Caribbean Central Bank.

May 1984

- 89 -

Table 7.1: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - ESTIMATED PRODUCTION

OF MAJOR COMMODITIES

Cin thousands of pounds, unless otherwise Indlcated)

1977 1978 1979 isso 1981 1982 1983

Agriculture crops

Arrowroot rhizomes .. .. 11,946 12,501 12,934 16,646 IS,399

Bananas 63,000 71,934 63,028 46,145 73,240 70,000 72,560

Cassava .. .. 794 893 1,000 1,897

Citrus fruits .. .. 1,000 900 850 1,244

Coconuts ('000 nuts) 12,000 16,000 14,296 10,738 9,924 10,519

Eddoes and Dasbeen 3,000 4,395 3,299 4,031 6,029 6,391

Ginger 1,321 1,915 2,635 1,200 2,000 2,120

Mangoes 3,810 3,809 3.810 1,269 3,810 4,039

Peanuts 56 151 101 100 400 424

Plantains 926 1,830 2,411 3,231 11,200 11,672

Sugar cane (metric tons) -- -- -- -- 8,500 30,035 33,610

Sweet Potatoes 1,686 3,493 3,200 4,652 3,016 3,197

Tannlas 1,494 1,900 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500

Tobacco 28 84 161 190 218 219

Yams 1,310 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

Manufactured Commodities

Animal feed -- -- 15,200 17,233 -- 21,781 25,27S

Arrowroot starch 1,457 1,836 1,493 1,562 1,616 2,110 2,208

Flour -- -- 48,302 48,252 43,426 44,988 43,899

Galvanized .etsl sheots

('000 feet) -- -- -- 110 2,524

Sugar (metric tons) -- -- -- -- 531 1,880 2,307

Sources Ministry of Finance, Plannlng and Development Statistical Unit.

May 1964

- 90 -

Table 7.2z ST. VINCENT AND THE GREHADINES - SELECTED TOURISM DATA

1978 1979 19e0 1951 1962 1963

Total number of visIters 46,826 56,186 75,015 71,475 67,596 72,719

Air 35,249 42,714 49,7S1 49,732 46,173 47,40S

Hotels/guest houses 13,736 16,093 19,627 19,365 18,746 19,246

Cottages/private houses 14,962 16,708 15,603 20,231 22.117 .23,134

Yachts 5,568 8,426 9,625 6,598 5,033 4,693

Excursiolnist a/ 963 1,467 1,699 1,518 277 332

Cruise ships by see b/ 13,577 13,472 28,261 21,743 21,425 25,314

Weighted days of stay per

visiter CJ 6.61 6.59 5.67 6.14 6.20 5.93

Hotels/guest houses 9 7 7 7 ' 7

Cottages/private houses 9 10 to 10 10 10

Yachts 9 9 9 9 9 9

Volume of visitors

(thousand days) 322.9 370.5 442.0 438.6 419.4 433.9

Weighted daily e xpediture

per visitor tUS dollar) 34.5 34.4 37.8 40.6 41.0 42.3

Kotelstguest hboses SS 60 67 70 70 71

Cottages/private bhoses 17 21 21 24 26 28

Yachts CIE hotel) d, 55 60 67 70 70 71

(on boat) 31 20 25 30 32 35

Excurslonlsts IS 20 20 20 20 20

Cruise ships and others IS 20 20 20 20 20

Totai expenditure by visitors

CalilIons of US dollars) 11.1 12.6 16.7 17.8 17.2 18 .2

a/ Official data combine excurslonists with yacht visitors. It Ic assumed that

excursionists are ISZ of the total.

b/ Obtained from data on cruise ship passengers with the assumption that only 6SZ of them

disembark.

cI Assumes that excursIonIst. and cruise sbip visitors spend a day on the Island.

d/ Assumes that vlistors arrlving by air for yachting spend on average two nights In

hotels and the remainder on boatr.

Sources Tourist Boerd and mission estimates.

Nay 1964

- 91 -

Table 7.3: ST. VINCENT AND THE CRENADINES - TOTAL VISITOR

ARRIVALS BY MONTH

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

January 1.702 11,222 14,242 5,553 86856

February 7,338 10,367 12,603 6,209 8,698

March 6,941 9,248 9,472 7,120 5,641

AprlI 4,936 6,302 86,95 6,897 7,602

Noy 3,498 S,339 4,011 S,4S1 3,864

June 3,618 5,404 3,474 4,776 4,267

July 5,122 6,504 4,5S2 7,167 5,S650

Aug.st 5,840 6,465 5,092 6,779 5,028

September 3,044 3,629 2,265 3,267 2,S13

October 3,363 4,228 2,972 4,593 3,707

November 4,030 4,939 5,S82 6,293 10,457

December 6,808 17,383 9,960 12,050 16,865

TOTAL 63,440 93,230 63,183 79,13S 86,350

By Air 42,714 49,751 49,732 46,173 47,405

By Sea 20,726 43,479 33,451 32,962 35,945

Sources Tourlit Board.

Noy 1964

- 92 -

Table 7.4: ST. VINCENT AND THE CRENADINES - TOTAL VISITOR ARRIVALS

BY FIRST PORT OF ENTRY

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

St. Vlicent 40,6S8 62,692 54,628 48,980 49,867

Alrport 31,165 36,537 36,748 31,400 32,712

Klngstown 9,493 26,155 17,880 17,580 17,1SS

seq Ia 10,252 14,413 3,098 2,343 3.185

Must quo 1,666 2,050 1,948 3,046 2,985

Al rport 1,464 1,892 1,749 1,536 1,358

Seaport 202 isa 199 1,509 1,627

Unlon Island 10,864 14,075 23,509 24,766 30,313

Airport 10,085 11,322 11,235 13,236 13,335

Seaport 779 2,753 12,274 11.530 16,S78

Total 63,440 93,230 83,183 79.135 86,350

Source: TourIst Board.

May 1984

- 93 -

Tale 7.5* Sr. VIM= C WE WoslE8 - 0817IW 9 US OF ECICIfT

Eatlta Projected

1377 19m 197 10 136l 132 ISO

CA) Sr. VINCYl

Peat DEmo Kw 4,110 4.75 4.690 4,63 5.110 5,090

Incroame - prow. year CZ) 6. 15.6 2.9 53 6.2 1.6 -Oe.a _ ner.lien Oes)

Hyro 6.32 9.925 shss1 1002 10,5 9,765 5,04Alesal 3,23 12,216 14,3 15.734 15,746 5,669 1354W

Total 18618 22,143 24.60 25,755 2625 26,434 23,4lIncrasee - prow. por CZ 10.3 18.9 11.1 4.7 13 0.7 11.4

Lead factor tl) 513 53.2 57.4 63.5 643

Pual cu.etlen (i. gail.) - 797.474 - 009,12 1.0215. 1.9,109 I,z57J77

SW.NVI. goll. - IS3 - 16.2 15.3 15J 15.5

Dom_tlc 7,44 84A - 5m 3,J72 10650 10,104Cimrclal 5,952 6.715 - 7,110 7,W 7,762 6,30

Isetrlal I,26m 2,57 - 32 3,25 3,256 3,616Str_t lightIng l 310 - 30 391 416 40Total 15,179 17,569 - 19,162 21,393 21.43 23,570lareasa en prow. year CZ) 103 16.4 - - 3J 5.4 96

Loam. CS of Groag Can) o/ 16.5 19.2 - 23.7 2233 111.7 1N:. of csaerat

GenetIc 6,744 9,131 - 9,697 tO3 - -

, arlai 1032 1,15 _ .i I.= - _

IsSarlal 55 57 - a 3 -

Strat Llghtling 34 D - 3 - -

Total 93,24 10.364 10.937 11.636 - -

Avg. toimptlen par coae

Oametlc 874 -I920 65 - -ceu rclal 5,456 S,929 - 6,067 6,214 - -

Industrlal 2.964 45.193 - 71,61O 82,974 - -

an) MEIA

Peak O_nd Om M 5 2S2 32 214 lmtrusnta 2466

Incream - prow. ypar (S) dgpd by

ire

Gros CGnersatIon IWJo 956 1.131 1,120 1,217 - 1,320 2,35

tncrer" en pftv. year rII 24.7 14.4 1.0 6.7 - - 46

Fuel cena_tian (ly. ga1.1 - - - - - X6,614 15,630

Sale. Cwe@.,

Domeatic 407 443 - S23 5W 646 62U

Circlel 234 311 - 341 Del 410 31

Street Lighting 1 I - I - - -

Total 740 757 m70 - - -

Avg. cm_ tlon r

eoWer C Wet/yrl

OsmatIc 610 653 - 769 - - -

CmerclaM 3,944 3.9e7 - 3,44 - -

V I clucIs po_r atatlin asllarerlaend coweny ugp eatbutd to ergeg S of Woea patlea.

Sems St. VIrat Electricity Sarelcese Ltd.

Ny I1X4

- 94 -

Table 7.63 ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - FUEL CONSUMPTION

1976 1979 1960 1961 1982 19S3

Cscollne (1.000 gellons) 1,463 1,342 1,257 1,510 1,640 1,746

Korosi.e (1,000 gallons) 367 388 259 231 204 250

Dloel (1,000 gallons) 1,425 1.908 1,67S 1,705 2,234 2,111

Natural Gas (tens) a/ 639 676 1,387 2,035 2,822 2,963

Electrielty (uwh) 23,274 2S,724 26,972 28,291 29,470 31,068

Commercial (5,750) C6,210) (6,0886 (6,403) C6,935) (7, 6 1 2 )b/

Domestic (8,412) C9,668) (9,124) (9,759) (10,S52) (10,292)

Industrial (2,574) (3,247) (3,332) (3,236) (3,554) (3,306)

Public Sector (1,376) (1,500) (1,65S) (1,597) CI,486) t ..)

Other (915) (1,008) (1,060) £1,059) (1,057) (1,152)

Loss (4,247) (4,091) (5,713) (6,237) (5,156) (6,506)

a, Tons of crude oll equlvalent.

b/ Includes public sector.

Sources: Statlitical Unlt and Energy Unit of MInistry of Flsanc, Pleaning and

Development.

May 1964

- 95 -

Table 5.1 ST. VI i S lI IXeUD1173IE - lIWU PlRIE 11

(slD ERIES)

Foo * Tobacco Clothing Fel HDw Trawert OtherAll Diver- Nd ad feet- H"wr * Feal- hold & Sir-It a Alcohl war Ing Light tba S.I l e Cern1 vice.

Old "lgbte 100.0 552 S3 6.9 11.1 6.4 5.4 9

(lrch 1964 . 100)

End ofPeriod

195 3N.1 321 a 2554 307J 289.1 27017 355. 2C33S1377 329J .7 23J 3J.1 1067 3133 400.4 211J193 3663 3713 3350 42.2 sa 396.4 4511J 310J1979 430.4 415. 375.4 49C.4 43.1 S21.5 5154 313.519110 SI1.7 514.7 433J 53.6 477.1 583.2 601.5 447.61"e1 56. 5.2 500J 657.7 549. 6M3. 741.9 4.3

MwWlghtbs/ 100.0 3.5 2.3 7.7 63 6.2 3.2 34 3.7 6.

(Jmay 131 a 100)

End of

Peled1ss1 111.7 109.1 114.1 115.5 107. 117 3 I032 130.1 119.0 117.31952 111.1 113.5 12W.3 132. 105J 121. 114.4 142.4 121.7 t33.51963 123.1 119S 121.6 1D.0 121.4 1X.1 1213 146MS 1327J 1.4

(Percent CimJ

1977 7.4 5.6 1o0 6.5 5.7 15.7 9.4 13.4

193 11.l 93 183 21. 1.0 5ss 12.6 4.01979 17n 11.9 12.1 54 41.2 31.6 14.3 25.41150 18.9 z5s 15.6 12J 9.4 11 16.7 16.7

1211 s5 25 15.4 21.6 152 13.0 23 10.4

NW might 4

112 4. 4.0 S7 43 O.1 3.9 1OJ 9.4 23 13.11363 5.1 S.3 2.2 4.3 14.3 S.2 6.6 2. 0.5 2.2

a' WIg9kb of ldix we revised effectlIv January 1951.

Source St.tatlstic UnIt, Nlebstr of Filme, Plerulng nd O lepmnt.

may1 94

- 96 -

Table 6.2. ST. VINCENT AND THE CHECADINESi Ceoseesr Pricc Indix

(NEW SERIES)

1371 1s30 19133I 1981 1982 13S 19 6 4 6/

1. Period Avehisse

All Items 400.1 463.1 523.7 166.6 114.4 120.6 122.5 3

Feod and baver.gof 537.7 455.0 503.J 105.6 10.6 1 6 .4 IIJ.5Tobecco and alcehel 357.0 406.1 436.4 105.1 11S.2 122.1 123.7

Clething and feitweer 462.3 523.5 664.0 105.1 119.3 124.9 124.3

Heoning 353.7 452.2 530.5 106.4 163.0 113.5 123.4

Fuel aid light 454.3 512.4 573.0 113.4 11.3 123.2 132.3

Furaltar 467.5 I SS5.4 1 717.S 1 102.3 110.7 116.5 121.0

Noseehold suppll es I 3 113.8 131.3 145.2 147.2

Transport and

ccmmenlectlene 560.2 1 41S.7 1 461.7 1 106.5 120.0 120.3 122.5Othar ServIce. 3 I 103.3 120.5 134.1 133.5

(Percentage Chaeieil

All Items 15.6 17.2 12.7 ... 7.3 5.4 *.0 "

Feed and beverese 12.2 14.4 1 2.1 ... 4.7 5.2 3.7 -

Tobaecc aid ilcebel 15.5 14.3 21.6 11. 7 3..3 1.6

Clethlog end feetwear 34.0 9.6 25.4 ... 14.0 4.3 0.O

Housing "5.0 27.0 17.3 ... I.5 10.6 14.4

Fuel sed liglt 30.1 12.6 15.0 ... 4.5 9.2 3.7

Fwrel lur. 3.1 1 20.9 3 27.0 8 .. * .2 5.2 5.l

Household upplel I 1 1 22.0 4.6 2.6

Transport sod

cemm icat-lenxs 16.4 1 16.5 1 10.0 I ... 10.1 0.3 2.9

Other Services I I ... 17.4 4.3 4.4

II. Eid of Perlid

All itms 430.4 511.7 55S.6 11.7 117.1 123.1 122.8 9/

Feel aid beveragee 415.6 514.7 523.2 10.1 113.5 11S .5 111.2

lobec., aid alcohol 375.4 433.3 500.6 114.1 120.J 123.6 123.3

Clethieg and footwear 4*6.4 SS6.6 687.7 115.S 120.S 126.0 123.6

Houling 436.1 477.1 543.6 107.3 103.0 123.4 123.4

Fuel sad lIght 521.5 503.2 653.5 117.3 121.t 126.1 134.1

Furnitere 515.4 1 601.5 1 741.3 I 103.2 114.4 121.9 120.7Hoeaheld Supplile I 130.1 142.4 146.5 147.2

Tramepert aid

cemmenlcatlions 33.5 1 447.6 494.3 1 11I.0 121.7 120.7 122.3

Other Servlega I I 117.3 133.5 136.4 133.2

(Pereente. cha eges)

All Items 17.5 16.3 . . .. " 4.6 5.1 3.5 f"

Food aid bhveregse 11.3 23.3 2.2 . .. 4.0 5.3 3.1

Toeecco aid alcehol 12.1 15.6 15.4 ... 5.7 2.2 2.0

Clethlig aid footwear 6.4 12.1 23.6 ... 4.3 4.3 -1.4

Noisln 41.2 3.4 15.2 ... 0.1 14.3 14.4

Fuel sad fligt 31.6 t1.S 13.0 ... 3.6 5.2 4.0

Furellare 15.3 ) 16.7 I 23.0 1 ... 10.I 6.6 4.9

H-"seheld supplies I I ... 9.4 2.3 2.2

lTraspert aid

cc-menlcatlons 23.4 1 16.7 1 10.4 I ... 2.3 -0.6 1.3

Other Services I 13.' 2.2 4.3

a/ Old sarlic, 1314 - 100.

*t Mews re-wglghtgd Serles, Je.uery li g loo.

- Average. Jeanery te March, 1984.

d/ Aaie11ved tos Mareb 1934.at As at aed-March 1184.* Pecentags Increase. Natol 1984 ever Mareb 1933.

Seeress Statletleal Office. Milnltry of Fleenese PlFrloig and Dovel-epsnt.

May 1334

- 97 -

Table 8.3: ST. VINCENT AND THE ORENADINES - PRICES OF GASOLINE, DIESEL

AND KEROSENE

(in East Caribbean dollars por Imperial gallon)

asoellne Diesel Kerosene

wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail Wholesale Rotell

1975

F*bruary 25 1.67 2.00 1.42 I.S2 -

1976

January 2 2.05 2.20 1.60 1.70 1.50 1.60

November 2 2.24 2.40 1.70 1.e0 1.62 1.72

1977

January 13 2.40 2.60 1.83 1.9S 1.76 1.88

September 13 2.46 2.66 1.87 1.99 1.78 1.90

1978

April 25 2.54 2.74 1.93 2.05 1.84 1.96

December 12 2.63 2.85 1.99 2.13 1.93 2.07

1979

February 27 2.85 3.00 2.06 2.22 2.13 2.27

April 1 2.86 3.11 2.20 2.34 2.23 2.37

May 5 3.19 3.44 2.41 2.55 2.44 2.58

July 6 3.26 3.51 2.45 2.62 2.51 2.65

August 14 3.S9 3.95 3.07 3.32 3.10 3.35

November 6 3.S9 3.95 3.07 3.32 3.41 3.66

1980

February 5 4.38 4.74 3.80 4.0S 3.98 4.23

March 25 4.38 4.74 3.80 4.05 4.09 4.23

April 22 4.49 4.05 3.91 4.16 4.23 4.37

August 12 4.66 S.02 4.01 4.26 4.23 4.37

October 30 4.48 4.54 3.85 4.10 4.01 4.15

1961

March 3 4.65 S.01 4.07 4.32 4.11 4.25

February 2 4.78 S.16 4.24 4.49 4.14 4.39

October 19 S.03 5.60 4.46 4.85 4.46 4.71

Sources Minlstry of Trade. Industry and Agriculture.

may 1954

- 98 -

Table S.4a ST. VINCENT AND THE ORENADINES - WAoES OF SELECTED

OCCUPATIONS AT BOTTLERS LIITED

(EC$ per week)

1977 197X 1930 1961 1932 1963

Filler Operation 53.46 67.36 77.41 35.00 14.00 119.0

Syraproom Atteadmnt S3.46 67.36 77.46 35.00 114.00 119.70

general Factory Handler 44.00 55.44 63.75 75.00 90.00 94.50

Measergar 44.00 55.44 63.75 75.00 90.00 34.50

Handymen 56.76 71.52 82.25 32.00 115.06 121.65

Watehmen S2.50 70.00 30.50 90.00 113.40 119.57

Bettler Worker 35.00 44.10 50.70 60.00 72.00 75.60

Average Increase 1S) 10.0 26.0 15.0 17.5 21.7 S.O

Searces Office of the Labor Comm-ialeoer.

May 1954

_ 99 _

Table $.St ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - Exchange Hate Movementa

Indices 1980wI00-

koninml Real

Effective Effective

Units per EC$ Exchange Exchange

SDR US$ Notea/ Rates b/

Quar teny

average

1971 - I 0.303 0.370 0.192 105.05 100.30

tl 0.302 0.370 0.202 1065.3 101.11

111 0.213 0.370 OI22 105.IS 99.67

IV 0.28s 0.370 0.186 104.37 100.66

197S - I 0.287 0.370 0.14 104.09 101.82

11 0.290 0.370 0.171 103.23 100.74

III 0.284 0.370 0.166 I@i.09 96.87

IV 0.214 0.370 0.171 102.25 101.53

1980 - I 0.284 0.370 0.164 100.96 100.36

11 0.2a5 0.370 0.162 100.61 99.36

III 0.200 0.370 OIS.5 99.07 96.39

IV 0.288 0.370 0.1SS 91.36 101.89

1181 - 1 0.296 0.370 0.160 100.65 104.90

11 0.313 0.370 0.175 104.30 IO0.50

Itl 0.326 0.370 0.201 106.63 114.31

1v 0.317 0.370 0.196 107.27 113.04

1162 - I 0.326 0.370 0.200 106.30 113.20

11 0.331 0.370 0.209 109.94 113.36

III 0.341 0.370 0.214 111.29 115.11

IV 0.343 0.370 0.224 112.S3 117.26

1983 - I 0.339 0.370 0.241 114.63 115.66

11 0.344 0.570 0.238 114.32 117.91

II 0.351 0.370 0.245 IIS.63 119.29

IV 0.352 0.370 0.2S2 126.91 120.27

Annual

1976 0.296 0.370 0.192 IOS.35 100.46

1979 0.256 0.370 0.174 102.67 100.74

1980 0.284 0.370 0.151 100.00 100.00

1t1o 0.314 0.370 0.183 IOS.22 110.69

1982 0.335 0.370 0.211 110.54 114.73

1983 0.346 0.370 0.244 115.38 119.03

of NOsed en the abaree of St. Vincent end the Brenadinee' mein trading partners

In domestic experts. lmports, end tourism.

b/ lamed en consumer price ledices.

Seurces IIFP lnternatlonal Financial Statintlce; and IMF staff eotlmate.

may 1984

!7r'RD *3500P

ST VINCENT & THE GRENADINES

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