public opinion in serbia attitudes towards the hague tribunal smmri july, 2003 belgrade centre for...

Public Opinion in SerbiaPublic Opinion in Serbia Attitudes towards the Hague Attitudes towards the Hague

TribunalTribunal

SMMRISMMRI

July, 2003July, 2003

Belgrade Centre for Human RightsBelgrade Centre for Human Rights

Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 2

MethodologyMethodology

• Realization: Field work realized from 19 –22 July, 2003• Target population: 18+ / Serbia without Kosmet• Sample - size: 1545• Sample - type: Three-stage stratified sample • Sample - stages:

– Units of the first stage: Electoral places territory (PPS)– Units of the second stage: Households (SRSWoR – random

walk)– Units of the third stage: Respondents within a household

(SRSWoR – Kish scheme)• Type of research: Omnibus, face to face survey• Poststratification: By gender, age and region• Error: +/-1% for phenomena with incidence of 3%


ContentsContentsPolitical environmentPolitical environmentAttitudes towards international community Attitudes towards international community institutionsinstitutions – – Does the Hague Tribunal Does the Hague Tribunal threatenthreaten the security of the security of SSeerbirbiaa Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal

The level of being informed about the institution of The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague Tribunalthe Hague TribunalImportance and attitudes towards cooperation with Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the Hague Tribunalthe Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Prosecutor and judges Attitudes towards the Prosecutor and judges Confidence in the Hague TribunalConfidence in the Hague TribunalInfluence of the trials on the attitudes towards the Influence of the trials on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and towards the guilt of the indictedHague Tribunal and towards the guilt of the indicted PotenPotential for change of the attitudestial for change of the attitudes


Political environmentPolitical environment

After the optimism during the emergency state, all indicators of the attitudes towards general situation in the country have decreased, and returned to the level from February, before the assassination of Prime Minister Djindjić: evaluation of direction in which Serbia is heading (45% of citizens perceive it as bad), personal living standard since the change of regime (only 24% feel it as being better), expectations for the next 6 months (30% expect improvement).

Rating of Democratic Party constantly decreases, G17+, DSS and SRS increase

40% of population would not entrust to any of the politicians the position of the President of Serbia; the most trusted with this respect are Koštunica and Labus, but the former by only 17%, and the latter by 15% of population


Political environmentPolitical environment In which direction is Serbia headedIn which direction is Serbia headed ... ...

57%

52%

36% 39%

39%

47%48%

44%

39%

40%

38% 38% 38%40%

38%

44%

56%

42%

66%

65%

54%45%

38%37%

35%

47%46%44%

30%32%27%

29%

35%

26%

21%

42%

46%

16%

16%

24%

maj-01

jul-01

avg-01

sep-01

no

v-01

jan-02

mar-02

maj-02

jun

-02

jul-02

Avg

-02

no

v-02

dec-03

jan-03

feb-03

mar-03

apr-03

Maj-03

jun

-03

jul-03

Right directionWrong direction

Basic indicator of general situation which, as a rule, is parallel with confidence in regime, and which used to be parallel with rating of the assassinated Prime Minister Djindjić, started to decrease abruptly after the state of emergency was over. In July, this indicator is back to the level from before the Djindjic’s assassination.


Political environmentPolitical environment Since electionsSince elections in in DecemberDecember 2000, 2000, have your personal have your personal

standard beenstandard been......

During the period of optimism which characterized the state of emergency, personal living standard was perceived as better, but, with decrease of optimism the same standard is perceived as less favorable

20

21

35

35

26

23

24

40

35

38

39

42

36

37

36

40

25

23

28

37

37

jan-03

feb-03

mar-03

apr-03

May-03

jun-03

jul-03

Better The same Worse


Political environmentPolitical environment Standard, Standard, expectations for the nextexpectations for the next 6 6

monthsmonths

In the period of optimism expectations for the future were much higher; in July they were below the level recorded before the assassination of Zoran Djindjić

27%

41%

42%

31%

27%

23%

40%

41%

40%

42%

42%

42%

28%

14%

12%

19%

25%

30%

feb-03

mar-03

apr-03

Maj-03

jun-03

jul-03

Improvement StagnationWorsening


Political environmentPolitical environment : Support of political partiesSupport of political parties

Right after the assassination of Prime Minister Djindjić, the rating of Democratic Party abruptely increased, but, with the overall fall of optimism and confidence, it has been constantly decreasing.

32

35

7

14

31 35

36

2

31

247

161616

21

35

1235

8

14

27

1

22

15

11

5 3 2

18

47

1213.5

10.5

25

22

5

11

20

15

12

ne znaSSJSPOSPSSRSG17+DSSDS

Mar-03

Apr-03

Maj - 03

Jun-03

Jul-03

Feb-03 21-24 /II

22-25/III

17-21/V

19-22/IV

19-23/VI

Party they would vote for if elections were held on Sunday


Political environmentPolitical environment : Whom they would assign as the President of Whom they would assign as the President of

the Republicthe Republic

More than 40% of the citizens do not trust any politician enough to entrust him the position of the President of the Republic

2

3

2

1

3

5

2

2

17

15

14

41

14

14

45

1715

12

12

48

5

4

2

2

Vojislav Koštunica

Miroljub Labus

B.Tadić

V.Šešelj

Mićunović

S.Milošević

Other

NO ONE

may

jun

jul

%


Attitudes towards international community Attitudes towards international community institutionsinstitutions

Does the Hague Tribunal threaten the Does the Hague Tribunal threaten the safety of Serbiasafety of Serbia

Right until the assassination of Zoran Djindjić, the Hague Tribunal, besides NATO, and even in somewhat higher percentage, was the only international institution which was perceived as threatening for the safety of Serbia by more than one half of population

After the state of emergency, in May, percent of population which perceived the Hague Tribunal as threatening decreased to 40%, but still, together with NATO, it kept its convincing first position as the most threatening international institution

The strongest feeling of Serbia being threated by Hague Tribunal was found among the supporters of SRS and SPS; the same feeling was found among more than half of DSS supporters, and the least among DS and G17+ supporters (however, even among them somewhat above ¼ perceive the Hague Tribunal as threatening for Serbia)


Attitudes towards international community institutionsAttitudes towards international community institutions Does the Hague Tribunal threaten the safety Does the Hague Tribunal threaten the safety

of Serbiaof Serbia

Citizens feel the Hague Tribunal as even more threating for Serbia than NATO

%

3322

2815

3318

2317

5445

5125

4937

4622

6654

5829

5155

73

4057

6364

1620

2543

182426

40

1315

2035

39

Doesn't Endanger Endangers

EUEU

OSCEOSCE

UNSCUNSC

NATONATO

The HagueThe HagueTribunalTribunal

December 00December 01January 03May 03


Attitudes towards international community institutionsAttitudes towards international community institutions Does the Hague Tribunal threaten the safety Does the Hague Tribunal threaten the safety

of Serbiaof Serbia

The feeling of being threatened by the Hague Tribunal was found the most among the supporters of SRS and SPS, and the least among the supporters of DS and G17+

37%

69%

85%

89%

40%

42%

70%

92%

84%

27%

52%

64%

73%

28%

DS

G17+

DSS

SPS

SRS

1-Dec 3-Jan Maj 03

Feeling of being threatened by political commitment


Attitudes towards the Hague Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalTribunal

The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague

TribunalTribunal

Just 6% of population consider themselves well informed about the institution of the Hague Tribunal

The best known are the Chief prosecutor Carla del Ponte and judge Richard May

45% of population are aware that UN is the founder of the Hague Tribunal, but less than ¼ are aware of the fact that Slobodan Milošević was the one who agreed to cooperate in the name of Yugoslavia




TribunalTribunal

A little35%

Pretty much5%

Both yes and no26%

Much1%

Very little33%

64%

6%

Majority of the citizens consider their knowledge about the Hague Tribunal as small or very small




TribunalTribunal

Just 7% of population knew the full name of the Hague Tribunal, specifying that this is a Tribunal for War Crimes in Former Yugoslavia

45% of population know that UN is the founder of the Hague Tribunal, but just 17% know that this is the UN Security Council

45%

27%

19%

7%InternationalTribunal for WarCrimes in FormerYU

InternationalTribunal for WarCrimes

The Hague Tribunal

Doesn't know27%

28%

17%

13%

9%

6% EU

NATO

USA

UN Security Council

UN

Doesn't know

45%

What is the full name of What is the full name of the the Hague TribunalHague Tribunal??

Who is the founder of the HTWho is the founder of the HT??




TribunalTribunal

Majority of population know the name of the chief judge in trial against Milošević, but even higher percentage of them know the function of Carla del Ponte

39%

60%

Karla Del Ponte

Richard May

Doesn't know16%

80%

4%

Other

Chief Prosecutor

Doesn't know

What is the name of chief judgeWhat is the name of chief judgeinin trial against trial against Slobodan Milošević?Slobodan Milošević?

What is the function ofWhat is the function ofCarla del Ponte?Carla del Ponte?




TribunalTribunal

Just one in four or five adult citizens of Serbia know that Slobodan Milošević agreed to cooperation with the Hague Tribunal in name of Yugoslavia

Other2%

Slobodan Milošević

23%

Vojislav Koštunica3% Zoran Ðindjić

14%

Goran Svilanović2%

Doesn't know56%

Who is our politician who agreed in name of Yugoslavia to Who is our politician who agreed in name of Yugoslavia to cooperation with the Hague after its establishmentcooperation with the Hague after its establishment??


Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the

Hague TribunalHague Tribunal When talking spontaneously about major

problems in Serbia at this moment, the citizens rarely mention the Hague Tribunal (1%), but, on the other hand, around 60% consider it as an important problem when asked directly

Majority of population support cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, and this percent has considerably increased over the past two years, however, only 15% think that the reason for cooperation should be justice

More than one half of population think that Serbia should not cooperate in locating Karadžić and Mladić: 20% of population think that they are not guilty, while 15% think that trial in The Hague Tribunal wouldn’t be fair


Just 1% of the citizens spontaneously mention cooperation with the Hague Tribunal as one of the main problems which Serbia is faced with at this moment.


Hague TribunalHague Tribunal

40

31

20

14

6

3

3

Unemployment

Low standard

Economy

Ruinedeconomy

Privatization

Agriculture

Slow reformsEconomy

18

4

4

3

3

1

1

Politicalconflicts

Kosovo andthe South of

Serbia

Foreignpolitics

The HagueTribunal Politics

15

14

5

3

4

3

2

Crime

Socialproblems

Mentality,discipline...

Publichealth,

educationSocialproblems

What are the main problems which Serbia is facing at this moment?

Spontaneous answers (possibility of 3 answers)% % %


Majority of citizens consider cooperation with the Hague Tribunal as important for their future, but in a much lesser percentage than other important problems. Cooperation with the Hague Tribunal is considered as the most important factor for admission in EU.


Hague TribunalHague Tribunal Rated importance of the mentioned problems for

citizens’ near future

90

86

77

73

61

59

2

3

7

5

13

13

Economicproblems

Crime/ corruption

Conflictsbetween leaders

and parties

Relations withinternationalcommunity

operation withthe Hague

Tribunl

Relationsbetween Serbiaand Montenegro

Unimportant Important

Rated importance of cooperation with the HT for

other problems in Serbia

73

67

64

61

34

7

8

11

14

32

Admission inEU

Admission inPartnershipfor Peace

Cooperationwith USA

Economicdevelopment

Relations withAlbanians,Croats andBosniaks

Unimportant Important% %


85% of population think that it is necessary to cooperate, but just 15% find the reason for cooperation in justice, while as much as 41% support minimum of cooperation, just to the extent necessary to avoid sanctions



15%

29%41%

14%

2%

we shouldcooperate for

justice to be done

we shouldcooperate because

this is aprerequisite for

Serbia'sreintegration into

the world

we shouldcooperate only to

the extentnecessary to avoid

sanctions

we should notcooperate, atwhatever cost

Doesn't know

WE SHOULD COOPERATEWE SHOULDN’T COOPERATE

MOTIVES FOR COOPERATION

85%

JUSTICE

70%

UTILITARIAN REASONS15%


During the past 2 years the percent of people accepting the necessity of cooperation with the Hague Tribunal have increased: Although utilitarian reasons influenced the change of attitude of 35% of people in the direction of accepting the necessity of extradition of the accused, another 35% in May 2001 still thought that the accused Serbs shouldn’t be extradited even at the cost of new sanctions, while only 14% in July 2003 are of this opinion



12

5424

10

Yes, it shouldYes some, but not allNone should be extraditedIndecisive

1835

47

Should extraditeShould not extraditeIndecisive

Should Serbia extradite the indicted Serbs to the Hague?

If Serbia had two possibilities, which one would you chose?

1. It should not extradite the indicted Serbs to the Hague even if it were again exposed to sanctions2. It should extradite the indicted Serbs to the Hague and avoid sanctions

MAY 2001


Just one in 6 or 7 citizens thinks that the accused should be extradited because they are guilty, while one in 3 or 4 citizens thinks that they shouldn’t be extradited because the Hague Tribunal wouldn’t be fair

Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Attitudes towards guilt of the accused and their Attitudes towards guilt of the accused and their

extraditionextradition

Yes, because they are guilty, and people

shouldn't be in trouble on their account

15%

Doesn't know3%

No, because, even if they are guilty, the HT

would't secure a fair trial28%

Yes, because this is the only way for the whole world to hear the truth

about Serbia16%

Yes, because even if they are not guilty they

shouldn't create problems to their

people21%

No, because they are not guilty

17%

Should the accused voluntarily surrender to the Should the accused voluntarily surrender to the Hague TribunalHague Tribunal??


More than one half of population think that at least one accused from the list should not have been extradited, while one in 3 or 4 citizens believes that at least one of them is not a war criminal

48%

37%

37%

36%

34%

31%

31%

37%

6%

Šljivancanin

Milutinovic

Sešelj

Ojdanic

Miloševic

Stanišic

Šainovic

All of them should havebeen extradited

Doesn't know 49%

21% 23%

Because they are not war criminals

Because the HT will not be fair

Because other peoples from former YU don'textradite their war criminals

57%

57%

of

pop

ula

tion

men

tion

at

least

on

e o

f th

e a

ccu

sed

fr

om

th

e m

en

tion

ed

lis

t

Why shouldn’t they have been extradited?

Answers of 57% of population who mentioned at least 1 accused from the list

28%Of total

population12%

Of totalpopulation

13%Of total

population

Are there any accused who shouldn’t have been extraditedAre there any accused who shouldn’t have been extradited to the to the Hague TribunalHague Tribunal??




More than one half of population think that Serbia should not cooperate in locating Karadžić and Mladić

Yes22%

No59%

Doesn't know19%

Should Serbia cooperate in locatingShould Serbia cooperate in locating Karadžić Karadžić andand Mladić? Mladić?




Just 8% of population think that we should cooperate in locating Karadžić and Mladić because they are guilty for war crimes, while 20% of population think that we shouldn’t cooperate because they are not guiltyOne in 6 or 7 citizens thinks that we shouldn’t cooperate in extradition because trial in the HT will not be fair

Attitudes towards guilt of the accused and their Attitudes towards guilt of the accused and their

extraditionextradition WhyWhy S Seerbia rbia shouldshould / / shouldn’tshouldn’t cooperate in locatingcooperate in locating Karadžić Karadžić

andand Mladić? Mladić?

63%

37%

Because this isthe only wayfor Serbia toreintegrate ininternationalcommunity

Because theyare guilty forwar crimesand justicehas to be done

Answers of 22% of population who think that Serbia should cooperate in extradition

25%

28%

34%

Because other exYU peoples don'textradite theirs

Because trial inthe HT would notbe fair

Because they arenot war criminals

Answers of 59% of population who think that Serbia shouldn’tshouldn’t cooperate in cooperate in


14%

Of total

population

8%

Of total

population

16%

Of total

population

15%

Of total

population

20%

Of total

population


Although majority of the citizens consider themselves as badly informed, just a slight percent of them didn’t have an attitude on the Hague Tribunal or refused to express it

Majority of population have an expressively negative attitude towards the Hague Tribunal, even more so towards the Prosecutor Carla del Ponte

The Hague Tribunal is criticized for biasness, and Carla del Ponte for partiality

Just one in 10 citizens of Serbia believes that Serbian citizens will have an unbiased trial

More than 80% of population believe that the accused Serbs are in more unfavorable position than any other nationality on trial

Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:: Attitudes towards Prosecutor and judges in the Attitudes towards Prosecutor and judges in the





Majority of population have an expressively negative attitude towards the Hague Tribunal, even more so towards the Prosecutor

2014

8 815 16

6358

Tribunal Prosecutor

Negative

Neutral

Positive

Doesn'tknow

Appraisal of Tribunal and the ProsecutorAppraisal of Tribunal and the Prosecutor – – general impressiongeneral impression

% % of of negative negative gradesgrades

%%




Supporters of DOS parties and G17+ have a considerably more positive attitude the judges and the Chief Prosecutor, but, even within this segment of population negative attitudes considerably exceed positive attitudes, especially those towards the Chief Prosecutor

82

82

77

57

48

38

37

1

0

1

4

17

12

30

SPS/JUL

SRS/SSJ

DSS

Indecisive

G17+

DS

Other DOSparties

Appraisal of work of HT judgesAppraisal of work of HT judges Appraisal ofAppraisal of Carla Del Ponte Carla Del Ponte’s work’s work

87

85

80

58

53

47

48

5

1

4

4

15

11

20

SPS/JUL

SRS/SSJ

DSS

Indecisive

G17+

DS

Other DOSparties

% Negative % Positive% Negative % Positive




The highesti % of negative grades given to the judges were for impartiality, and to the Prosecutor for objectivityThe prosecutor was graded much more negatively than the judges

46

51

55

56

57

19

15

11

12

11

Respect ofhyman rights

Giving chanceto Defense

Efficiency

Fairness of trial

Impartiality

Appraisal of work of HT judgesAppraisal of work of HT judges Appraisal ofAppraisal of Carla Del Ponte Carla Del Ponte’s work’s work

59

63

65

69

9

9

6

6

Respect ofhuman rights

Cooperationwith Serbia

Choice ofwitnesses

Objectivity

% Negative % Positive% Negative % Positive


Distrust in impartiality of the Hague Tribunal concerning the accused Serbs exceeds negative grades for general impartiality (69% against 57%)

Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:: Confidence in the Hague TribunalConfidence in the Hague Tribunal

Both yes and no19%

Doesn't know2%

Trust10%

Distrust69%

Confidence that the trials of the accused Serbs in the Confidence that the trials of the accused Serbs in the HHague ague TTribunalribunal will be impartial will be impartial

57 11

Negative Positive

% grades for impartiality in general


Even among supporters of DOS and G17+ , as the segment of population with the highest confidence in the Hague Tribunal, higher percentage of distrust in impartiality is expressed concerning trials of Serb nationals than in impartiality in general


Confidence that the trials of the accused Serbs in the HT Confidence that the trials of the accused Serbs in the HT will be impartialwill be impartial

94

92

83

72

57

50

49

4

3

4

6

18

14

26

SPS/JUL

SRS/SSJ

DSS

Indecisive

G17+

DS

Other DOSparties

Distrust Trust%

4

3

3

7

22

28

17

85

80

79

55

46

42

35

SRS/SSJ

SPS/JUL

DSS

Indecisive

G17+

Other DOSparties

DS

Grades for impartiality in generalNegative Positive


Around one half of population think that partiality of the Hague Tribunal is best reflected in bigger number of the accused Serbs in comparison to the accused of other nationalitiesBigger partiality is attributed to the process of indictment than to the trial process


What is the best reflection of partiality towards the accused What is the best reflection of partiality towards the accused SerbsSerbs

49,8%

16,2%

13,2%

9,7%

8,0%

3,0%

Bigger number of theaccused Serbs

Bigger importance ofthe accused Serbs

Less objective trialsagainst Serbs

Stricter verdicts forSerbs

Less objectiveindictments

Doesn't know


82% of population think that the accused Serbs are in the most unfavorable position, while the most favorable position is attributed to Albanians


Rank of the accused according to favorableRank of the accused according to favorable – – unfavorableunfavorable position in front of the Hague Tribunalposition in front of the Hague Tribunal

1% 1% 1%1%

36%

26%

9%

1%

24%

18%

1%

17%

42%

82%

27%

10%

Serbs Bosniaks Croats Albanians

Most unfavorable

Rank 2

Rank 3

Most favorable

11% of population thinkthat all the accused are inthe same position

3,4

2,92,6

1,1

Serbs Bosniaks Croats Albanians

unfa

vora

ble

favo

rabl

e

Average rank


In contrast to the first appearance of Slobodan Milošević in front of the Hague Tribunal, in February, 2002, when more than 60% of population watched at least a part of the TV broadcast, today much smaller percent watches trial against Milošević in the Hague (11%)

Effect of the first Milošević’s appearance was rise of his rating as a politician, and average grade for his appearance was very good, 3.76 (on the scale from 1 to 5).

Supporters of SRS and SPS get informed and follow the trial on TV much more than the supporters of other political parties, therefore, it is not unusual that, from the aspect of population, more distrust towards the Hague Tribunal is expressed by citizens who get more informed

Influence of the trial process on Influence of the trial process on the the attitudes attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the

indictedindicted


More than one half of population claim that course of trial against Milošević had no influence on change of their attitude towards his guilt, 18% changed the attitude in direction of his innocence, why just 11% in direction of guilt

Just 8% of the citizens trust witnesses of the prosecution, 70% don’t trust them at all, or trust them a little

Albanian witnesses are the least trusted, but Serbian witnesses are trusted by just slightly above 1/5 of population

Just 7% of population state that at least some testimony has influenced the change or their attitude towards the Hague Tribunal in positive direction


indictedindicted


Milošević’s first appearance in the Hague was watched, at least partly, by more than one half of population, which brought to Milošević not only a very good average score for appearance, but also an abrupt rise of positive grades for him as a politician, the first time after the change of regime in 2000.


indictedindicted

43%populacij

e

19%populacij

e

7%populacij

e

64.5%

50.3%

46.7%

15February -

4th DAY

14February -3rd DAY

13February -2nd DAY

Percentage of population in Serbia who watched at least one direct broadcast of Milošević’s first appearance in the Hague (SMMRI CATI, Feb. 2002)

Segment of population who watched at least a part of TV broadcast

Average score (1 to 5) Milošević as a politician 2.502.50

Average score (1 to 5) for appearance in the Hague 3. 3. 7676

0

5

10

15

20

25

No

v-01

Jan

-02

Mar

-02

May

-02

Jul-

02

Sep

-02

No

v-02

Jan

-03

Mar

-03

May

-03

Jul-

03

Beginning of trialand TV broadcast

February 2002

Šešelj’s arrivalIn the Hague

February 2003

% of positive grades for Milošević

November 2001-July 2003(SMMRI monthly Omnibus)


Majority of people get scantly informed about the trial processes in the Hague, and now they rarely follow the trial process against Slobodan Milošević


indictedindicted

Pretty

much/much

11%

Both yes

and no

20%

Little/no

69%

Often / regularly

8%Occasionally

26%

No / rarely66%

How much do you get informed / watch the trials in the Hague Tribunal?

How much do you watch the trialAgainst Slobodan Milošević on TV?


Within the segment of population which gets informed about the Hague trials the most, there exists a higher level of distrust in impartiality of the trials against the accused Serbs, most probably because supporters of SPS and SRS are the most interested in the trials.


indictedindicted

69% 69% 75%

20% 19% 10%

9% 12% 15%

No/ a little Both yes and no Prettymuch/ much

Distrust Neutral Trust Doesn't know

80%

79%

70%

67%

59%

49%

46%

14%

13%

25%

22%

28%

26%

21%

6%

8%

5%

11%

13%

25%

34%

Indecisive

DS

Other DOS

G17+

DSS

SRS/ SSJ

SPS/ JUL

No/ a little Both yes and no Pretty much/ much

How much do you get informed about the Hague trials?

Confidence that the accused Serbs will be tried fairly

How much do you get informed about the Hague trials?

48%Of

population

14%Of

population

8%Of

population

2%2%


Within the segment of population who watch trial against Milošević the most, there exists a higher level of distrust in impartiality of the trials against the accused Serbs, most probably because supporters of SPS and SRS watch the trial against Milosevic the most.


indictedindicted

66% 74%83%

22%16%

6%10% 10% 11%

No/ a little Both yes and no Prettymuch/ much

Distrust Neutral Trust Doesn't know

75%

73%

68%

65%

59%

46%

36%

20%

22%

26%

32%

33%

35%

33%

4%

6%

6%

3%

8%

20%

31%

Indecisive

DS

G17+

Other DOS

DSS

SRS/ SSJ

SPS/ JUL

No/ a little Both yes and no Pretty much/ much

How much do you get informed about the trial against Milošević on TV?

Confidence that the accused Serbs will be tried fairly

How much do you follow on TV trial against Milošević?

43%populacij

e

19%populacij

e

7%populacij

e


Just 11% of population have changed their attitude towards Milošević’s guilt in the direction of being even more convicted about his guilt (7%) or, from conviction that he is not guilty to conviction that he is guilty (4%)


indictedindicted

43%populacij

e

19%populacij

e

7%populacij

e

Has the trial against Has the trial against Milošević Milošević influenced your attitude about his guiltinfluenced your attitude about his guilt??

Doesn't know/watch20%

Yes: Before - guilty, now - not guilty

9%

Yes: Before - guilty, now - even more so

7%

No: He is not guilty17%

No: He is guilty34%

Yes: Before - not guilty, now - even more so

9%

Yes: Before - not guilty, now - guilty

4%

Summary Total

No 51.80%Yes, in direction of guilt 10.60%Yes, in direction of innocence 17.60%Doesn’t know/watch 19.8%


Majority of the citizens do not trust the truthfulness of the testimonies of the prosecution witnessese


indictedindicted

43%populacij

e

19%populacij

e

7%populacij

e

How much do you trust witnesses of the prosecution who appeared in courtHow much do you trust witnesses of the prosecution who appeared in courtso far, do you trust the truthfulness of theirso far, do you trust the truthfulness of their testimonytestimony??

A little28%

Not at all42%

Completely2%

Pretty much6%

Both yes and no22%

Trust 8%

Distrust 70%


Witnesses of Albanian nationality are the least trusted, Serbian witnesses are trusted the most, however, even in case of Serbian witnesses public opinion is divided


indictedindicted

43%populacij

e

19%populacij

e

7%populacij

e

How much do you trust witnesses of the prosecution of various nationalities, How much do you trust witnesses of the prosecution of various nationalities, do you trust the truthfulness of theirdo you trust the truthfulness of their testimonytestimony??

74% 70% 67%

37%

9% 13% 14%

28%

5% 5% 6%22%

Albanians Croats Bosniaks Serbs

Ne zna

Poverenje

Da i ne

Nepoverenje

Nationality of witnesses


On the basis of testimonies just 7% of population (approximately one in 14 citizens) changed their attitude towards the Hague Tribunal in positive sense, while 9% (approximately one in 11 citizens) changed their attitude in negative sense.


indictedindicted

43%populacij

e

19%populacij

e

7%populacij

e

Has any testimony influencedHas any testimony influenced the changethe change of your attitudeof your attitude

towards the Hague Tribunaltowards the Hague Tribunal? ?

How did it change How did it change your attitudeyour attitude? ?

13%

87%

No

Yes

29%

71%

Negative

Positive

9%

of population

7%

of population

Answers of 13% of population who stated that at least onetestimony influenced change of their attitude towards the Hague Tribunal


Expected objectivity of International Crime Tribunal is usually based on perception of the Hague Tribunal (38%)Somewhat less than 1/3 of population expect that International Crime Tribunal will be more objective than the Hague Tribunal, the biggest part of which (18%) are the citizens who give the Hague negative grades for impartiality

Influence of the attitudes towards the Hague Influence of the attitudes towards the Hague TribunalTribunal onon attitudes towardsattitudes towards International International

Crime TribunalCrime Tribunal

43%populacij

e

19%populacij

e

7%populacij

e

What will the International Crime What will the International Crime TribunalTribunal look like in comparison with look like in comparison with

thethe Hague TribunalHague Tribunal??

30%

38%

4%

28% Doesn't know,hasn;t heard aboutICT

Less objective

The same as theHT

More objective thanthe HT

18%

7%

3%

23%

6%5%

2%1% 1%

Negative Neutral Positive

More objective than theHT

Same as the HT

Less objective

% in population

Assessment of impartiality of the HT


Classification of population based on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal has shown that it can be divided into 3 classes: 22% with positive attitude, 36% with negative attitude and 41% with ambivalent attitude

The highest degree of agreement in the group of ambivalent citizens has the attitude that their opinion about the Hague would change if some more convincing proofs about their guilt were disclosed

The highest percentage of citizens with positive attitude is found among supporters of DOS parties and G17+, however, within this group, as well as among indecisive voters and DSS supporters, there is the highest percentage of ambivalent attitudes

SPS and SRS supporters have a negative attitude in expressively highest percentage, but, almost one half of DSS supporters also have a negative attitude

Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Potential for change of attitudesPotential for change of attitudes


Most ambivalent is the generation between 40 and 50 years, older population express a dominantly negative attitude, while younger than 40, although dominantly ambivalent, express somewhat more positive attitude

Message which sentencing of the accused Serbs would be communicated to future generations, for most of the people in the segment with positive attitude is the message of justice – war crimes can not remain unpunished; for segment with the negative attitude the message is a shame that Serbia has betrayed its defenders; the ambivalent are divided between justice and injustice, and shame for Serbia and the world



On the basis of the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal population is grouped in 3 classes: those with positive attitude 22%, expressively negative 36% and ambivalent attitude as a potential for change of attitude in positive direction, 41%

43%populacij

e

19%populacij

e

7%populacij

e

9% populacije

7% populacije


0

1

2

3

4

5

Positive attitude Negative attitude Ambivalent attitude

Prosecution is unable to bring convincing witnesses because they don't exis

Trials in the HT are a part of the attempts of international community to subjugate Serbia

The Hague Tribunal does not care about the truth

My attitude would change to the better if they disclosed some more convincing proofs

Trials would be more efficient if Serbia were more willing to cooperate

My objection to the HT is that, being clumsy, they increased Milosevic's popularity

Even the way HT is, it is good that it exists, otherwise the war criminals would remain unpunished,

22%

36% 41%

Average score for agreement with the mentioned attitude by clusters* Agreement

Disagreement

* Cluster centroid – cluster analysis


In total population, the highest percent of agreement is reached on the attitude that the Hague Tribunal does not care about the truth, but almost half of population agree with the attitude that their opinion about the Hague could change to the better if some more convincing proofs about the guilt of the accused were disclosed

43%populacij

e

19%populacij

e

7%populacij

e

9% populacije

7% populacije

41%

39%

39%

27%

19%

21%

20%

23%

20%

21%

21%

21%

18%

18%

19%

19%

25%

25%

35%

44%

46%

48%

51%17%

Trials in the HT would be much more efficient if Serbia were more willing to cooperate

I object to the HT its clumsiness, due to which it increased Milosevic's popularity,instead of prooving that he is guilty for war crimes

Even the way it is, it's good that the HT exists, otherwise the war criminals wouldprobably remain unpunished

The biggest obstacle to more objective trials in the Hague is the Chief ProsecutorCarla Del Ponte

Prosecution is unable to bring more convincing witnesses because they simply don'texist

Trials in the HT are a part of the attempts of international community to subjugateSerbia

My opinion about the Hague would change to the better if some more convincingproofs about the guilt of the accused were disclosed

The Hague Tribunal does not care about the truth, but to punish the accusedaccording to previously prepared scenario

Disagreement Both yes and no Agreement Doesn't know



For segment of population with a positive attitude, sentencing the accused will leave the message of justice being done; for those with negative attitude shame will remain on Serbia for having betrayed its defenders; the ambivalent are divided in their attitudes between justice, injustice, shame for Serbia and shame for the world

43%populacij

e

19%populacij

e

7%populacij

e7%

populacije


76%

5%8%

19% 21%

6%

30%

6%

29%

21%

30%

66%

Pozitivan stav Negativan stav Ambivalentan stav

War crimes can not remainunpunished

Those who lose a war arethe ones who suffer

Shame will remain onSerbia for betraying thedefenders of Serbianpeople

Shame will remain oninternational community

I don't know/refusal

If the accused Serbs are sentenced, what message will be communicated to future generations?


Positive attitude, but also a considerable percent of the ambivalent is characteristic for supporters of DOS and G17+Considerable percent of the ambivalent is found among the indecisive citizens and DSS supporters, although the ones with a negative attitude are prevalent

43%populacij

e

19%populacij

e

7%populacij

e7%

populacije

Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Potential for change of attitudes Potential for change of attitudes

49%

40%

37%

15%

9%

3%

2%

15%

10%

15%

41%

49%

76%

78%

37%

50%

49%

44%

42%

21%

19%

Other DOS parties

DS

G17+

Indecisive

DSS

SPS/J UL

SRS/SSJ


Political inclination of population cluster according to attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal


Female population, more than male, has an ambivalent attitude, and they also have less negative attitude than male populationYounger segment of population, aged 18 to 39, have more positive attitude than population aged 40 +Generation between 40 and 50 years is the most ambivalent, while generation 50+ have a dominantly negative attitude

43%populacij

e

19%populacij

e

7%populacij

e7%

populacije


Demographic characteristics of population cluster according to their attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal - Gender and age

21%23%

26% 26%

20%18%

21%

40%

32% 31%29%

33%

43% 44%

39%

44%42%

45%47%

39%

35%

Male Female 18 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 64 65 +



The least educated are also the least ambivalent, negative attitude is dominant. The most educated have a positive attitude to a somewhat higher percentage than those with secondary education, but they are almost equally ambivalent as those with secondary education

43%populacij

e

19%populacij

e

7%populacij

e7%

populacije


Demographic characteristics of population cluster according to attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal - Education

19%23%

27%

44%

34%31%

37%

43%42%

Primary school or trade Secondary school College or university



Within urban population positive attitude is prevalent, but there are more of the ambivalent than in other parts of populations. More ambivalent are present in Belgrade, and citizens with negative attitude twice exceed those with positive attitude. In Central Serbia majority of population have negative attitude, and slightly less ambivalent. In Vojvodina ambivalent attitudes are prevalent, but the number with positive and negative attitudes is almost identical.

43%populacij

e

19%populacij

e

7%populacij

e7%

populacije


Demographic characteristics of population cluster according to attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal-Type of settlement and region

24%

20%18%

22%

28%

33%

40%36%

40%

29%

42%40%

46%

39%

43%

Urban Other Belgrade Central Serbia Vojvodina


public opinion in serbia attitudes towards the hague tribunal smmri july, 2003 belgrade centre for...

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