8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

1/23

Modern Grid Initiative (MGI)www.themoderngrid.org

Steven W. Pullins, Team LeaderRDS / SAIC

25 May 2006

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

2/23

Problems and Needs

Robust trends Reliability failures

Generation mix movement Market movement GDP losses 44% premium on electricity paid

by consumers

Cannot get over the deployment hump Renewables growth 12M DG poised for grid influence

Grid divorce

a response, not control, scenario

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

3/23

Electric Infrastructure Growing Crisis?

Transmission problems rocketed when generation additions outdistanced transmission additions.

3

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

4/23

Generating Nodes on the Grid

Change in Generation Mix Connected to the Grid

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Year

Numbe

rofUnits

Small DG / Renew ables (0.1-19MW)

Midsize Hydro / Gas / Duel

Fuel (20-99MW)

Large Fossil / Nuclear

(>100MW)

Exponential increase

4

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

5/23

Electricity Market Paradigm Shift

5

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

6/23

Annual Business Losses from Grid Problems

$0.2B - $2B

$2B - $4B

$4B - $7B

$7B - $12B

$18.5B

Primen Study: $150B annually for power outages and quality issues

6

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

7/23

Do we have Pilot-itis?

US Substation / Distribution Automation Projects in Utilities

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Numbe

rofProjects

Pilot Projects

Deployment Projects

Develops

technology

Develops

real value

Example:

Pilot = 25% deployment into the field.

7

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

8/23

Power Industry Loss of Skills and Experience

Utility downsizing has reduced senior staff

Experienced staff in the power industry is aging

Enrollment in power engineering at universities issmall

Complexity of modern grid requires skills in

advanced power system and IT Perceived value of technical skills has been

reduced over the past 15 years

Fundamental understanding of the power systemshas been replaced by advancements intechnology

8

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

9/23

Technical Challenges of Current Practices

Very little industry experience in thesystems integration of advanced

technologies into the grid; certainly notsuites of advanced technologies workingtogether

Virtually no experience with widedeployment issues for new technologies

No industry experience with hightechnology transformations

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

10/23

Project objectives Advance a national effort a partnership

among utilities, consumers, academia,

manufacturers, National Labs, regulators,and policy makers to improve the nationalgrid in a way to support the 21st century US

economy.

Enable the vision and process to give the

nation sufficient experience with advancedtechnology integration to generate a self-sustaining transformation.

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

11/23

Tomorrows Modern Grid

11

Systems Approach

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

12/23

Tomorrows Modern Grid

Reliability Security

Economics Quality Efficiency Environmentalquality

Safety

Key SuccessFactors Emergency

Restoration Routine operations

Optimization Systems planning

Emergency Restoration Routine operations

Optimization Systems planning

Self-healing (detects, analyzes,

responds & restores) Empowers and incorporates theconsumer

Tolerant of a security attack Provides power quality needed by

21st century users Accommodates a variety of

generation options Fully enables electricity markets Optimizes asset use and

minimizes O&M costs

Self-healing (detects, analyzes,responds & restores)

Empowers and incorporates theconsumer

Tolerant of a security attack Provides power quality needed by

21st century users Accommodates a variety of

generation options Fully enables electricity markets Optimizes asset use and

minimizes O&M costs

Integrated communications across the grid Advanced control methodologies

Sensing, metering, and measurement Advanced grid components Decision support & human interfaces

Integrated communications across the grid Advanced control methodologies

Sensing, metering, and measurement Advanced grid components Decision support & human interfaces

Congestion costs Massive blackout probability SAIFI

Restoration time CAIDI Peak to average load ratio Capacity use

Congestion costs Massive blackout probability SAIFI

Restoration time CAIDI Peak to average load ratio Capacity use

12

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

13/23

Integrating Key Technologies

Perform gapanalysis to identifytechnology needs

Create a regionalintegrated advanced

key technologiesprogram

Develop broadstake-holder support

for deploying keytechnologies

Creatingthe

moderngrid

13

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

14/23

Life-cycle Project Budget by FY

$12,000M/yr(deployment)

$3M/yr(FY13-14 only)

13-30

$30M/yr$20M/yr08-12

$4.5M$5.3M07

~$2.1M$4.1M06

$0.2M$0.4M05

Private Cost ShareDOE NETL BudgetFY

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

15/23

Life-cycle Project Budget by Major Milestones

~$30.0M$0.2M$18.0M

$0.6M

$1.2M

Concept DevDFT

Stakeholder Dev

Program Ops

08+

~$4.5M$0.2M$4.4M

$0.3M

$0.4M

Concept DevDFT

Stakeholder Dev

Program Dev

07

~$2.1M$0.9M$1.9M

$1.1M

$0.2M

Concept DevDFT

Stakeholder Dev

Program Dev

06

$0.2M$0.4MConcept Dev05

Private Cost ShareDOE NETL BudgetMajor MilestoneFY

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

16/23

Prior-year Development

Completed the systems analysis of thegrid and the required future state of the

grid to support a 21st century economy. Completed initial industry vetting of the

results (Initial Regional Summit hostedby GridWise Alliance and PJM, Sep05,25 attendees)

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

17/23

FY 2006 Performance & Results

Released the Modern Grid v1.0 summary document (Nov05),Modern Grid Initiative v1.0 (Mar06), and Modern GridDescription v1.0 (Apr06)

Held Modern Grid Regional Summits in the Southwest (Phoenix,

Nov05, 60 attendees) and Northwest (Portland, Apr06, 80attendees)

Launched The Modern Grid website (www.themoderngrid.org)(Apr06)

Agreement in principal with AEP for a developmental field test(DFT) of an integrated suite of advanced grid technologies inWest Virginia delivering some of the principal characteristics ofthe Modern Grid (Apr06)

Agreement in principal with Allegheny Power for a DFT of an

integrated suite of advanced grid technologies in West Virginiadelivering some of the principal characteristics of the ModernGrid (May06)

Alignment plan for other modern grid-related earmark projects(May06)

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

18/23

FY 2007 Plan

Refine the Modern Grid v2.0 in preparation for functionalspecifications, the regional technology integrationprojects, and national adoption strategy ($200K)

On-going stakeholder development and support throughTheModernGrid.org, the Characteristics and KeyTechnologies Working Groups, and stakeholder summits($300K)

Completion of at least two public-private DFTs ($4,400K) Construct the Regional Advanced Technology Integration

Project Program ($200K)

Alignment of several earmark R&D projects with the

Modern Grid Initiative ($200K)

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

19/23

Interactions & Collaborations

(including cost-share info) Utility collaborations

BPA ($0.1M FY06 cost-share), TVA, APS, SDG&E, ConEd, SCE, PGE, PSE,PJM, AEP (AIP ~$4M cost-share over 3 yrs), Allegheny Power (AIP ~$2.6Mcost-share over 3 yrs)

Policy / Industry group collaborations GridWise Alliance, GridWise Architecture Council, EPRI Intelligrid, GridApps

Consortium, PSERC, CEC, DRAM, Northeast Midwest Institute, NCSL,CERTS, Northwest Energy Coalition, WA PUD Association, WA CTED,Northwest Power and Conservation Council, Climate Solutions, NEETRAC,

Galvin Initiative Academia and Labs WVU, Virginia Tech, CMU, Univ of Wisconsin, Arizona State Univ., Wastington

State Univ., Portland State Univ., University of Texas, NETL, PNNL

Industry firms collaboration

RDS/SAIC ($0.2M FY05 cost-share), AREVA, Renz Consulting, JAMEnterprises, Enernex, Center for Smart Energy, Augusta Systems, Weller &Associates, ICF Consulting, S&C Electric, CTC, NGK, VRB Power Systems,PGNC Power, SEL, Celerity, ETAP Northwest, Capgemini, Intel

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

20/23

Technical and/or Economic Benefits Effective coordination of broad technology developments

Wide-spread communication of definitive results

Objective quantification of benefits

Most efficient and cost-effective approach; enhancedlikelihood of deployment of the RIGHT technology suite

Enhanced DOE leverage of non-DOE technology throughcollaboration

Stimulation of new technology and process developmentsand deployments

Credible basis for policies, standards, and incentives

needed for modernizing the grid National program that includes clear regional benefits

among multiple regions

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

21/23

Implementation Barriers & Strategies for Mitigation

The fear of the unknown is worse than the horror ofthe present. former utility manager, heard May06

Projects designed to directly address deploymentbarriers for host utilities, consumers, andregulators

Clearly show physical, economic, technical, andcommercial viability (reduces uncertainty,increases predictability)

Provide data, information, and analysis toinfluence policies (federal and state standards,economic incentive basis, and regulator support)

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

22/23

8/4/2019 Pullins (1)

23/23

Contact InformationSteve Bossart

Director,

IntergovernmentalPrograms

NETL

Phone: 304-285-4643Email: steven.bossart@netl.doe.gov

Steve Pullins

MGI Team Leader

RDS / SAICPhone: 865-300-7395

Email: pullinss@saic.com