pv market and industry development in germany christoph urbschat chairman work group export...
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PV Market and industry development in Germany
Christoph UrbschatChairman Work Group Export PhotovoltaicGerman Solar Industry Association (BSW-Solar)
Stralauer Platz 34, 10243 Berlin, GermanyTel. +49 30 2977788 0, Fax +49 30 2977788 99www.bsw-solar.de, [email protected]
Athens, September 15, 2009
© BSW-Solar 2009 2
German Solar Industry AssociationBundesverband Solarwirtschaft – BSW-Solar
TASK Represent the German solar industry
in the solar thermal energy and photovoltaics sectors
VISION A worldwide sustainable energy supply
provided by solar energy
ACTIVITIES Lobbying, political advice, public relations,
market observation, standardization
TIME Over 25 years of activity in the solar energy
sector
MEMBERS More than 700 solar producers, suppliers,
wholesalers, installers and other companies active in
the solar business
HEADQUARTERS Berlin Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens
© BSW-Solar 2009 3
PV is the most fascinating way to produce electricity
Advantages
• PV can be used everywhere worldwide
• PV can be used grid connected and off-grid
• PV can be used in every size
• PV needs only one initial investment
• PV does not harm the environment
• PV has the biggest potential among all RES
Challenge: Today, PV is often the most expensive way to produce electricity using RES
However: PV has the highest cost reduction potential
=> PV has to be developed today in order to have (1) enough solar capacity available in one decade (2) at a competitive price
Sou
rce
: A
leo
Source: Solarwatt
Source: Phönix
Source: SMA
Why do we need Photovoltaics?
Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens
© BSW-Solar 2009 4
Japan230 MWp; 4%
China50 MWp; 0.8%
South Korea290 MWp; 5%
India70 MWp; 1.2%
Australia40 MWp; 0.7%
RO World195 MWp; 3%
Canada20 MWp; 0.3%
USA500 MWp; 8%
RO Europe53 MWp; 0.9%
Portugal42 MWp; 0.7%
Belgium20 MWp; 0.3%
France150 MWp; 3%
Czech Republic20 MWp; 0.3%
Italy 220 MWp; 4%
Spain2600 MWp; 43%
Germany1500 MWp; 25%
New installed PV Power
2006: 1600 MWp
2007: 2650 MWp(+66%)
2008: 6000 MWp
(+126%)
Photovoltaic World Market 2008
Source: Preliminary figures ofNational PV Associations, Stryi-Hipp, Feb 26th 2009
Red Letters:Countries with Feed-in tariff
schemes
USA342 MW
Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens
© BSW-Solar 2009 5
1500
1100
850850
600
3 3 3 3
150
80784012101274
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
annually installed PV power in MWp total installed PV power in MWp
Development of the German PV market
Milestones
1991: First Feed-in Law (FIT with low tariffs)
1991-1995: 1 000 roofs program (grants)
1999-2003: 100 000 roofs program (loans)
2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) (FIT)
2004: Amendment of EEG (FIT)
PV Market Data 2008
Newly installed power 1 500 MWp
Total installed power 5 334 MWp
No. of total systems installed ca. 500 000
Turnover 2008 6 Bln € / 8.1 Bln $
Employees 45 000
To
tal
inst
all
ed P
V p
ow
er i
n M
Wp
esti
mat
ion
Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens
© BSW-Solar 2009 6Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens
The differentiation of tariffs create different market segments in Germany.
1. L
oc
ati
on
of
PV
in
sta
lla
tio
n
2. Size of PV installation
3 main PV market segments
2. Project market
1. Retail market
3. BIPV market
Feed-in tariff< 30 kWp
> 30 kWp
> 100 kWp
> 1000 kWp
On buildings and on noise protection walls
€ 46.75ct
€ 44.48ct
€ 43.99ct
-8% -10% -25%
€ 43.01ct
€ 40.91ct
€ 39.58ct
€ 33.00ct
Façade integration
plus € 5ct -100% 0
Free land / ground mounted
€ 35.49ct -10% € 31.94ct
© BSW-Solar 2009 7
Germany: Market Segments of on-grid PV SystemsImage: Sharp
Size of the system
Gro
un
d
Ro
of
top
BIP
Vm
ou
nte
dE
ffor
t of
mo
untin
g
Image: Solarwatt
residential homes 1-10 kWpmulti family houses, public + social buildings, farms, commercial plants
10-100 kWp
Image: Solarwatt
Image: Sharp
Image: BP
Large and very large commercial > 100 kWp
Image: Schüco
Image: Geosol Image: Geosol
Image: Grammer
55%37%
8%Est. market shares in 2010
<1%
Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens
8© BSW-Solar 2009 Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens
On global level we see in 2009 a differentiation of the PV market in layers, segments and niches.
PV investment market
PV premium market (solar architecture, BIPV, etc.) Solar mobility
market
Green building market
PV XXL (power plant) market
PV off-grid market
PV low end market (DIY, kits, cheap/standard)
PV auto-supplier / ESCO market
PV idealist market (eco-, green)
Time
Market level
Low end
High end
Past (-2008) Short-term (2009-10) Medium-term (2011+)
9
80150
600
850 850
1100
1350
1500
1700
1900
10001100
1200
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
an
nu
ally
ins
talle
d P
V p
ow
er
in M
Wp
annually installed PV power in MWp upper limit lower limit
Amendment of the EEG from June 2008:Feed-in Tariffs for PV will be reduced faster as of 2009
8%/10%
8%/10%
9%9%
Degression rate of feed-in tariffsUp to 2008: 5% / 6.5% (roof top/ground)2009/2010: 8% / 10% (< / >100 kWp)2011/2012: 9%Below/above corridor: -1%/+1%
-1%-1%
-1%
+1%
+1%
+1%
Degression rate 5%/6.5%
est
© BSW-Solar 2009 Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens
10© BSW-Solar 2009 Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens
11© BSW-Solar 2009 Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens
12© BSW-Solar 2009 Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens
13© BSW-Solar 2009 Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens
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Conclusions
• Photovoltaics has a great potential worldwide– but it is necessary to build up market and industry today
• The German PV market is growing continously
• Driver of the market is the feed-in tariff system (EEG)
• There are already more than 40.000 jobs created in the PV sector in Germany
• Prices for PV modules were reduced significantly in the last 6 months, therefore investments in PV systems are much more attractive today
© BSW-Solar 2009 Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens