q3 2002 results november 20, 2002 - hugin onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · this...
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Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002
1
•Introduction
•Market update – outlook
•Corporate financial status
•Other
Agenda
2
Oldest ship from 1990
Average age – 6.5 years –Industry Average 10.5 years.
Percentage double hull tonnage : 71 % - Industry Average 52 %
40 + 1 N/B VLCCs
24 Suezmaxes
8 Suezmax OBOs
= 17.2 million dwt. or approximately 118 million barrels transport capacity. 3
Main events 2002 – Q3 •Frontline took delivery of Hakata in beginning of July and Front Stratus in end of August,
•Two of the drybulk vessels transferred from GOGL toFrontline late March 2002 were sold in July. The net cash effectof the sale being $9 million,
•The two dry bulk vessels Golden Daisy and Golden Rose were sold in July. This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million.
4
Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes(No. of vessels)
Of whichVLCC's ULCC's*) Suezmaxes
Building year 200,000+ dw t 320,000 + dw t 120,000-200,000 dw t
1973 or earlier 2 01974-75 13 2 111976-77 29 10 161978-80 12 8 171981 or later 371 3 239Fleet as at November 14, 2002 427 23 283
On order2002 9 2 62003 36 27
2004+ 21 24Total on order 2001-2006 66 2 57
*) Each ULCC representing an average of 400,000 Dwt
Source: P.F.Bassøe 5
Newbuildings versus scrapping candidatesVL/ULCC fleet as of November 14, 2002
1 1 49
24
5 37
2 4 1 3 1 29 6
101613
1826
39
19
2821
1113
32
41
2632
9
36
20
10
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
NO
. VSL
S
Order No. VslsFleet No. Vsls
6Source: P.F. Bassøe
Newbuildings versus scrapping candidates Suezmax fleet as of November 14, 2002
74
8 8 8 63 1 3 4 3
0 14 6
15
7
2227
139 8 9 11
21
15
23
1720
6
27
21
2 10
5
10
15
20
25
30
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
NO
VSL
S
Order No. VslsFleet No. Vsls
7Source: P.F. Bassøe
•The expected general economic recovery has been delayed.
•Tanker rates have improved considerably in the first half of the fourth quarter 2002 due to a seasonaldemand increase and more oil going west. We expectthe market to stay at reasonable levels over the winter.
•The fleet balance has proven to be good, which makes one wonder why rates were so bad for so long.
The macro trend
8
OPEC-10: Production vs. quotas (mbd)
20,0
21,0
22,0
23,0
24,0
25,0
26,0
27,0
28,0
29,0
jan.92 jan.93 jan.94 jan.95 jan.96 jan.97 jan.98 jan.99 jan.00 jan.01 jan.02
QuotaProduction
9Source: P.F. Basssøe / IEA
10
94.1
95.1
96.1
97.1
98.1
99.1
00.1
01.1
02.1
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0MBD
NORTH SEA OIL PRODUCTIONMONTHLY 1994-2002
R.S. PlatouEconomic Research a.s
97.1 98.1 99.1 00.1 01.1 02.12.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0MBD
PRODUCTION DEMAND NET EXPORTS
FSU OIL MARKET QUARTERLY 1997-2002
1199.3 4 00.1 2 3 4 01.1 2 3 4 02.1 2 3
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
MBD
30
35
40
45
50
55
PERCENT
AFRAMAX SUEZMAX AFRAMAX MARKET SHARE
SPOT MARKET VOLUMES OUT OF THE BLACK SEAQUARTERLY BY TANKER TYPE
99.3 4 00.1 2 3 4 01.1 2 3 4 02.1 2 3
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
MBD
0
20
40
60
80
100
PERCENT
AFRAMAX SUEZMAX AFRAMAX MARKET SHARE
SPOT MARKET VOLUMES OUT OF BALTICQUARTERLY BY TANKER TYPE
R.S. PlatouEconomic Research a.s
Oil inventories, OECD and US, mbCommercial inventories, OECD Commercial inventories, US
2 300
2 400
2 500
2 600
2 700
2 800
2 900
Jan Mar Mai Jul Sep Nov850
900
950
1 000
1 050
1 100
1 150
Jan Mar Mai Jul Sep Nov
5-year high range
5-year low range
5-year high range
5-year low range
2001
2002
2001
2002
12Source. P.F. Bassøe / IEA
Henry Hub Gas
13Source: J.P. Morgan
WTI-Brent
Henry hub gas
0,000
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
jun-
00
aug-
00ok
t-00
des-
00
feb-
01ap
r-01
jun-
01
aug-
01ok
t-01
des-
01fe
b-02
apr-
02
jun-
02au
g-02
okt-
02
$/m
mbt
u
wti-brent
-2,00
-1,00
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
Dat
e
apr-
98
aug-
98
des-
98
apr-
99
aug-
99
des-
99
mar
-00
jul-0
0
nov-
00
mar
-01
jul-0
1
nov-
01
mar
-02
jul-0
2
okt-0
2
$/b
Avg. 01Q102 Q202 Q302 Q402 Avg. 02
JP Morgan 26,7 26,2 24,8 25,9 26,9 26,0
IEA 26,7 25,6 23,9 25,1 26,2 25,2
US DOE 26,6 26,3 24,2 25,8 25,7 25,5
JP Morgan estimates as of November 15, 2002. IEA and DOE as of November 2002.
Estimated call on OPEC 2002
14
Avg.02 Q103 Q203 Q303 Q403 Avg. 03
JP Morgan 26,0 26,4 25,0 26,2 27,1 26,2
IEA 25,2 24,9 23,7 24,7 25,9 24,8
US DOE 25,5 26,5 24,5 24,9 26,2 25,5
JP Morgan estimates as of November 15, 2002. IEA and DOE as of November 2002.
Estimated call on OPEC 2003
15
Opec decides VLCC rates
R2=0.89 DATA FOR DEC 99 TO OCT 02
(DEC 00 IS EXCLUDED)
16Source: R.S. Platou
Profit & Loss
17
Q3 01 Q3 02 USD million 9M 2002 9M 2001 2001
132,4 82,0 Net operating revenues 269,7 537,8 647,318,8 -0,6 Gain / loss on sale of vessels -2,9 34,8 35,644,5 53,4 Total expenses 135,4 129,3 176,5
106,8 28,0 Operating profit before depreciation (EBITDA) 131,4 443,3 506,531,1 34,9 Depreciation 103,6 89,3 121,775,6 -6,9 Operating profit (EBIT) 27,8 354,1 384,8
-36,1 -30,2 Financial items -81,9 -47,1 -33,939,5 -37,2 Net profit (loss) before min. & taxes -54,1 307,0 350,80,3 0,0 Taxes 0,0 0,3 0,40,0 Cumulative effect of change in accounting principle 32,3 32,3
39,3 -37,2 Net profit (loss) -54,1 339,1 382,7
0,51 -0,49 EPS before cumulative effect of change in acc. princ. (USD) -0,71 3,99 4,57- - Cumulative effect of change in accounting principle - 0,42 0,42
0,51 -0,49 EPS -0,71 4,41 4,99
Income on time charter basis
TCEs
01000020000300004000050000600007000080000
Q1 97 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 98 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 99 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 00 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 01 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 02 Q2 Q3
USD
per d
ay
VLCC Suezmax 18
Q3 01 Q3 02 9M 2002 9M 2001 2001
30 800 16 900 VLCC, spot , T/C and B/B vessels 18 900 47 600 40 800- 14 887 VLCC, spot 16 301 - -
25 689 VLCC, T/C and B/B vessels 27 63023 100 14 300 Suezmax 16 100 34 100 30 70023 000 13 400 Suezmax OBO 15 500 31 900 28 900
Ship operating expenses (USD/day)Q3 2002 9M 2002 Budget Total Total Total
9 M 2002 2001 2000 1999VLCC 6 181 6 235 6 283 6 339 6 940 6 828Suezmax 5 869 5 937 5 560 5 706 5 476 5 976Suezmax OBO 6 296 5 868 5 973 8 996 6 246 6 385Drybulk 3 834 4 011 3 715
No. of vessels drydocked or expected to be
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q12001
Q22001
Q32001
Q42001
Q12002
Q22002
Q32002
Q42002
Ship operating expenses
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
Q199
Q299
Q399
Q499
Q100
Q200
Q300
Q400
Q101
Q201
Q301
Q401
Q102
Q202
Q302
VLCC Suezmax Suezmax OBO 19
EBITDA
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 99 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 00 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 01 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q102 Q2 Q3
USD
mill
ion
20
Financial itemsQ3 2001 Q3 2002 USD million 9M 2002 9M 2001 2001
132,4 82,0 Net operating revenues 269,7 537,8 647,318,8 -0,6 Gain / loss on sale of vessels -2,9 34,8 35,644,5 53,4 Total expenses 135,4 129,3 176,5
106,8 28,0 Operating profit before depreciation (EBITDA) 131,4 443,3 506,531,1 34,9 Depreciation 103,6 89,3 121,775,6 -6,9 Operating profit (EBIT) 27,8 354,1 384,8
-36,1 -30,2 Financial items -81,9 -47,1 -33,939,5 -37,2 Net profit (loss) before min. & taxes -54,1 307,0 350,80,3 0,0 Taxes 0,0 0,3 0,40,0 0,0 Cum. Effect of change in acc. principle 0,0 32,3 32,3
39,3 -37,2 Net profit (loss) -54,1 339,1 382,7
FX gain 1.4 2,4 Interest income 7,8-18,2 Interest expense -55,4
Equity SL -15.4 -1,4 Share of result in assoc -9,8Int. swaps - 0.5 -17,1 Other financial items -16,4
4,1 Foreign currency gain / loss -8,0
21
Associated companiesAs at 30.09.02
Debt outstanding
Our share
Guarantee liability
•Rasmussen K/S parts nil nil nil•Front Tobago (40%) partners OSG and Euronav 14,0 5,6 2,4•Ariake (33%), partner OSG and Euronav 51,5 17,2 4,7•Sakura (33%), partner OSG and Euronav 51,5 17,2 4,7•Ichiban (33%), partner OSG and Euronav 47,8 15,9 5,3•Tanabe (33%), partner OSG and Euronav 50,3 16,7 5,6•Hakata (33%), partner OSG and Euronav 52,5 17,5 5,8•Edinburgh (50,1%), partner OSG 27,6 13,8 4,1•Dundee (50,1%), partner OSG 27,6 13,8 4,1•Golden Fountain (50%) partner Euronav 32,1 16,0 32,1•New Circassia (50%) partners Ropner and Runciman 54,2 27,1 54,2•Pacific Lagoon (50%) partner Euronav 53,8 26,9 53,8
Total = 462,9 187,8 176,9
Yen denominated debt 119,9Our share 60,0
22
JPY exposure and interest exposure of short term + long term debt and capital leases
Yen denominated debt/capital leases 30.09.2002 30.06.2002 ChangeConsolidated 133 091 139 689 -6 598Associated companies, our share 59 970 78 274 -18 304Total 193 062 217 963 -24 901
Floating debt 30.09.2002 30.06.2002 ChangeConsolidated 1 059 323 1 057 648 1 675Associated companies, our share 187 828 191 901 -4 074Total 1 247 151 1 249 549 -2 398
Total debt/capital leases 30.09.2002 30.06.2002 ChangeConsolidated 1 661 526 1 665 998 -4 472Associated companies, our share 187 828 191 901 -4 074Total 1 849 354 1 857 900 -8 546
23
Balance sheet - AssetsUSD million Q3 2002 Q3 2001 2 001
Short termCash and Bank deposits 84,8 117,4 189,3Marketable securities 1,0 0,3 1,2Other current assets 90,1 96,6 87,5
Long termNewbuildings 65,2 101,0 102,8Vessels and equipment, net 2 562,5 2 502,8 2 514,2Associated companies 110,3 98,6 109,9Goodwill 11,9 14,2 14,0Deferred charges and other assets 6,0 16,9 15,0Total assets 2 931,9 2 947,6 3 033,8
Oscilla 8.4
Trade rec./Voyages in progress 50.4Prepayment/inventory 31.4Other 8.3
24
Balance sheet - AssetsUSD million Q3 2002 Q32001 2 001
Short termCash and cash equivalents 84,8 117,4 189,3Marketable securities 1,0 0,3 1,2Other current assets 90,1 96,6 87,5
Long termNewbuildings and vessel purchase option 65,2 101,0 102,8Vessels and equipment, net 2 562,5 2 502,8 2 514,2Investment in associated companies 110,3 98,6 109,9Goodwill 11,9 14,2 14,0Deferred charges and other long-term ass 6,0 16,9 15,0Total assets 2 931,9 2 947,6 3 033,8
FL 2,414.1 GOGL 154.5
GOGL includes 2 capes, 1 handy and 1 VL
FL Capital lease 201.1includes 3 VLs
GOGL Capital lease 28.8includes 1 cape
25
Balance sheet - LiabilitiesUSD million Q3 2002 Q3 2001 2 001
Short termShort term interest bearing debt 213,0 223,9 227,6Other current liabilities 72,4 70,5 87,5
Long termLong term interest bearing debt 1 218,1 1 331,1 1 164,4Other long term liabilites 252,1 104,0 295,1Minority 6,1 6,8Stockholder's equity 1 176,3 1 212,0 1 252,4
Total stockholders' equity and liab. 2 931,9 2 947,6 3 033,8
Corp loans / cr lines 17.5Ship mort loans core FL 140.3GOGL 55.1
Corporate loans 9.0 Ship mort loans core FL 1,147.9GOGL 61.1
FL capital lease 196.9 GOGL cap lease 21.0Other 34.2
26
Remaining N/B commitments
Q4 02 Q1 03 Q2 03Gross cap. ex 109 0 59Bank loan 99 0 50Equity financing 10 0 9
27
Breakeven rates (USD / day)
Cash Breakeven P/L Breakeven
VLCC 22 150 21 000Suezmax 14 200 12 800Suezmax OBO 14 100 14 400
28
Breakeven requirements are very lowVLCC TCE versus Cash
Breakeven
0,00010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
100,000ja
n-90
jan-
91
jan-
92
jan-
93
jan-
94
jan-
95
jan-
96
jan-
97
jan-
98
jan-
99
jan-
00
jan-
01
jan-
02
USD
/day
VLCC TCE Cash Breakeven November 2002 Average TCE in the period 29Source TCE: Clarksons
Breakeven requirements are very low
Suezmax TCE versus Cash Breakeven
0,00010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000
jan-
90
jan-
91
jan-
92
jan-
93
jan-
94
jan-
95
jan-
96
jan-
97
jan-
98
jan-
99
jan-
00
jan-
01
jan-
02
US
D/d
ay
Suezmax TCE Cash Breakeven November 2002 Average TCE in the period
30Source TCE: Clarksons
Appendixes
31
Income on time charter basisQ3 01 Q3 02 USD'000s 9M 2002 9M 2001 2 001
50 035 31 093 VLCC, spot 89 084 214 353 243 886- 11 920 VLCC, T/C and B/B vessels 44 540 - -
42 073 26 919 Suezmax 89 402 181 590 220 78716 133 9 620 Suezmax OBO 33 289 65 372 79 435
Q3 01 Q3 02 Trading days minus off hire 9M 2002 9M 2001 2 001
1 625 2 089 VLCC, spot 5 465 4 504 5 973 - 464 VLCC, T/C vessels 1 612 - -
1 818 1 885 Suezmax 5 559 5 324 7 195703 718 Suezmax OBO 2 141 2 052 2 746
32
Total expensesQ3 2001 Q3 2002 USD million 9M 2002 9M 2001 2001
32,2 29,0 Ship operating expenses 86,4 89,6 121,510,5 19,7 Charterhire expenses 39,3 31,5 41,91,8 4,7 Administrative expenses 9,7 8,1 13,2
Increased w ith 4 BP vessels from Q3
33
Off balance sheet vessels
•Front Century
•Front Champion
•Front Warrior
•Golden Victory
34
Estimated oil demand/supply 2002
Avg. 01 Q102 Q202 Q302 Q402 Avg. 02
Demand* 76,4 76,9 75,6 76,5 78,0 76,8
Supply* 76,9 75,8 75,4 76,2 77,9 76,4
*)Based on JP Morgan estimates as of November 15, 2002
35
Estimated oil demand/supply 2003
Avg. 02 Q103 Q203 Q303 Q403 Avg. 03
Demand* 76,8 77,8 76,3 77,5 78,7 77,6
Supply* 76,4 77,8 77,2 77,8 78,4 77,8
*)Based on JP Morgan estimates as of November 15, 2002
36
Oil production Change 2000 2001 2002 2000 - 2002
Canada 2,68 2,74 2,85 0,17Mexico 3,45 3,56 3,59 0,14USA 8,11 8,05 8,10Argentina 0,82 0,82 0,80Brazil 1,50 1,58 1,77 0,27Colombia 0,71 0,63 0,59 -0,12Ecuador 0,41 0,42 0,39Denmark 0,37 0,35 0,37Norway 3,35 3,42 3,31UK 2,60 2,45 2,42 -0,18Oman 0,96 0,96 0,90Syria 0,54 0,55 0,53Yemen 0,54 0,46 0,46Australia 0,82 0,73 0,72 -0,1Brunei 0,20 0,20 0,19China 3,25 3,31 3,38India 0,79 0,78 0,76Malaysia 0,81 0,79 0,80Vietnam 0,32 0,35 0,32Angola 0,75 0,73 0,90 0,15Egypt 0,80 0,76 0,73Gabon 0,33 0,30 0,29Total 34,11 33,94 34,17
Other / smaller prod 2,40 2,44Refinery proc gain 1,76 1,79
Non OPEC supply ex FSU 38,10 38,4037
Oil productionChange
2000 2001 2002 2000 - 2002Russia 6,54 7,05 7,59 1,05Kazakhstan 0,75 0,83 0,95 0,2Other FSU 0,75 0,77 0,79FSU 8,04 8,65 9,33
OPEC NGL / Condensate 2,90 3,00Call on OPEC crude 26,70 26,00Stockbuild 0,50 -0,40OPEC crude 27,20 25,50
38
Difference in TCE – old/modern VLCCs
Needed daily cash to cover expenses:
Daily op ex 8000D/D res / upgrading (USD 2 million per 2.5 years) 2200Cash cover 10200
TC modern VLCC 21000- difference extra speed / consumption TT -9000- tech offhire 20 days extra -700- commercial offhire 50 days -1700Effective TC old TT 9600 39
VLCC fleet development (year-on-year growth)
116
118
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
nov.99 feb.00 mai.00 aug.00 nov.00 feb.01 mai.01 aug.01 nov.01 feb.02 mai.02 aug.02 nov.02
40Source: P.F. Bassøe
Suezmax fleet development (year-on-year growth)
38,0
38,5
39,0
39,5
40,0
40,5
41,0
41,5
42,0
42,5
43,0
nov.99 feb.00 mai.00 aug.00 nov.00 feb.01 mai.01 aug.01 nov.01 feb.02 mai.02 aug.02 nov.02
41Source: P.F. Bassøe