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Page 1: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002

1

Page 2: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

•Introduction

•Market update – outlook

•Corporate financial status

•Other

Agenda

2

Page 3: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Oldest ship from 1990

Average age – 6.5 years –Industry Average 10.5 years.

Percentage double hull tonnage : 71 % - Industry Average 52 %

40 + 1 N/B VLCCs

24 Suezmaxes

8 Suezmax OBOs

= 17.2 million dwt. or approximately 118 million barrels transport capacity. 3

Page 4: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Main events 2002 – Q3 •Frontline took delivery of Hakata in beginning of July and Front Stratus in end of August,

•Two of the drybulk vessels transferred from GOGL toFrontline late March 2002 were sold in July. The net cash effectof the sale being $9 million,

•The two dry bulk vessels Golden Daisy and Golden Rose were sold in July. This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million.

4

Page 5: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes(No. of vessels)

Of whichVLCC's ULCC's*) Suezmaxes

Building year 200,000+ dw t 320,000 + dw t 120,000-200,000 dw t

1973 or earlier 2 01974-75 13 2 111976-77 29 10 161978-80 12 8 171981 or later 371 3 239Fleet as at November 14, 2002 427 23 283

On order2002 9 2 62003 36 27

2004+ 21 24Total on order 2001-2006 66 2 57

*) Each ULCC representing an average of 400,000 Dwt

Source: P.F.Bassøe 5

Page 6: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Newbuildings versus scrapping candidatesVL/ULCC fleet as of November 14, 2002

1 1 49

24

5 37

2 4 1 3 1 29 6

101613

1826

39

19

2821

1113

32

41

2632

9

36

20

10

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

NO

. VSL

S

Order No. VslsFleet No. Vsls

6Source: P.F. Bassøe

Page 7: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Newbuildings versus scrapping candidates Suezmax fleet as of November 14, 2002

74

8 8 8 63 1 3 4 3

0 14 6

15

7

2227

139 8 9 11

21

15

23

1720

6

27

21

2 10

5

10

15

20

25

30

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

NO

VSL

S

Order No. VslsFleet No. Vsls

7Source: P.F. Bassøe

Page 8: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

•The expected general economic recovery has been delayed.

•Tanker rates have improved considerably in the first half of the fourth quarter 2002 due to a seasonaldemand increase and more oil going west. We expectthe market to stay at reasonable levels over the winter.

•The fleet balance has proven to be good, which makes one wonder why rates were so bad for so long.

The macro trend

8

Page 9: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

OPEC-10: Production vs. quotas (mbd)

20,0

21,0

22,0

23,0

24,0

25,0

26,0

27,0

28,0

29,0

jan.92 jan.93 jan.94 jan.95 jan.96 jan.97 jan.98 jan.99 jan.00 jan.01 jan.02

QuotaProduction

9Source: P.F. Basssøe / IEA

Page 10: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

10

94.1

95.1

96.1

97.1

98.1

99.1

00.1

01.1

02.1

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0MBD

NORTH SEA OIL PRODUCTIONMONTHLY 1994-2002

R.S. PlatouEconomic Research a.s

97.1 98.1 99.1 00.1 01.1 02.12.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0MBD

PRODUCTION DEMAND NET EXPORTS

FSU OIL MARKET QUARTERLY 1997-2002

Page 11: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

1199.3 4 00.1 2 3 4 01.1 2 3 4 02.1 2 3

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

MBD

30

35

40

45

50

55

PERCENT

AFRAMAX SUEZMAX AFRAMAX MARKET SHARE

SPOT MARKET VOLUMES OUT OF THE BLACK SEAQUARTERLY BY TANKER TYPE

99.3 4 00.1 2 3 4 01.1 2 3 4 02.1 2 3

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

MBD

0

20

40

60

80

100

PERCENT

AFRAMAX SUEZMAX AFRAMAX MARKET SHARE

SPOT MARKET VOLUMES OUT OF BALTICQUARTERLY BY TANKER TYPE

R.S. PlatouEconomic Research a.s

Page 12: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Oil inventories, OECD and US, mbCommercial inventories, OECD Commercial inventories, US

2 300

2 400

2 500

2 600

2 700

2 800

2 900

Jan Mar Mai Jul Sep Nov850

900

950

1 000

1 050

1 100

1 150

Jan Mar Mai Jul Sep Nov

5-year high range

5-year low range

5-year high range

5-year low range

2001

2002

2001

2002

12Source. P.F. Bassøe / IEA

Page 13: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Henry Hub Gas

13Source: J.P. Morgan

WTI-Brent

Henry hub gas

0,000

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

jun-

00

aug-

00ok

t-00

des-

00

feb-

01ap

r-01

jun-

01

aug-

01ok

t-01

des-

01fe

b-02

apr-

02

jun-

02au

g-02

okt-

02

$/m

mbt

u

wti-brent

-2,00

-1,00

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

Dat

e

apr-

98

aug-

98

des-

98

apr-

99

aug-

99

des-

99

mar

-00

jul-0

0

nov-

00

mar

-01

jul-0

1

nov-

01

mar

-02

jul-0

2

okt-0

2

$/b

Page 14: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Avg. 01Q102 Q202 Q302 Q402 Avg. 02

JP Morgan 26,7 26,2 24,8 25,9 26,9 26,0

IEA 26,7 25,6 23,9 25,1 26,2 25,2

US DOE 26,6 26,3 24,2 25,8 25,7 25,5

JP Morgan estimates as of November 15, 2002. IEA and DOE as of November 2002.

Estimated call on OPEC 2002

14

Page 15: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Avg.02 Q103 Q203 Q303 Q403 Avg. 03

JP Morgan 26,0 26,4 25,0 26,2 27,1 26,2

IEA 25,2 24,9 23,7 24,7 25,9 24,8

US DOE 25,5 26,5 24,5 24,9 26,2 25,5

JP Morgan estimates as of November 15, 2002. IEA and DOE as of November 2002.

Estimated call on OPEC 2003

15

Page 16: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Opec decides VLCC rates

R2=0.89 DATA FOR DEC 99 TO OCT 02

(DEC 00 IS EXCLUDED)

16Source: R.S. Platou

Page 17: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Profit & Loss

17

Q3 01 Q3 02 USD million 9M 2002 9M 2001 2001

132,4 82,0 Net operating revenues 269,7 537,8 647,318,8 -0,6 Gain / loss on sale of vessels -2,9 34,8 35,644,5 53,4 Total expenses 135,4 129,3 176,5

106,8 28,0 Operating profit before depreciation (EBITDA) 131,4 443,3 506,531,1 34,9 Depreciation 103,6 89,3 121,775,6 -6,9 Operating profit (EBIT) 27,8 354,1 384,8

-36,1 -30,2 Financial items -81,9 -47,1 -33,939,5 -37,2 Net profit (loss) before min. & taxes -54,1 307,0 350,80,3 0,0 Taxes 0,0 0,3 0,40,0 Cumulative effect of change in accounting principle 32,3 32,3

39,3 -37,2 Net profit (loss) -54,1 339,1 382,7

0,51 -0,49 EPS before cumulative effect of change in acc. princ. (USD) -0,71 3,99 4,57- - Cumulative effect of change in accounting principle - 0,42 0,42

0,51 -0,49 EPS -0,71 4,41 4,99

Page 18: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Income on time charter basis

TCEs

01000020000300004000050000600007000080000

Q1 97 Q2 Q3 Q4

Q1 98 Q2 Q3 Q4

Q1 99 Q2 Q3 Q4

Q1 00 Q2 Q3 Q4

Q1 01 Q2 Q3 Q4

Q1 02 Q2 Q3

USD

per d

ay

VLCC Suezmax 18

Q3 01 Q3 02 9M 2002 9M 2001 2001

30 800 16 900 VLCC, spot , T/C and B/B vessels 18 900 47 600 40 800- 14 887 VLCC, spot 16 301 - -

25 689 VLCC, T/C and B/B vessels 27 63023 100 14 300 Suezmax 16 100 34 100 30 70023 000 13 400 Suezmax OBO 15 500 31 900 28 900

Page 19: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Ship operating expenses (USD/day)Q3 2002 9M 2002 Budget Total Total Total

9 M 2002 2001 2000 1999VLCC 6 181 6 235 6 283 6 339 6 940 6 828Suezmax 5 869 5 937 5 560 5 706 5 476 5 976Suezmax OBO 6 296 5 868 5 973 8 996 6 246 6 385Drybulk 3 834 4 011 3 715

No. of vessels drydocked or expected to be

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12001

Q22001

Q32001

Q42001

Q12002

Q22002

Q32002

Q42002

Ship operating expenses

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

Q199

Q299

Q399

Q499

Q100

Q200

Q300

Q400

Q101

Q201

Q301

Q401

Q102

Q202

Q302

VLCC Suezmax Suezmax OBO 19

Page 20: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

EBITDA

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q1 99 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 00 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 01 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q102 Q2 Q3

USD

mill

ion

20

Page 21: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Financial itemsQ3 2001 Q3 2002 USD million 9M 2002 9M 2001 2001

132,4 82,0 Net operating revenues 269,7 537,8 647,318,8 -0,6 Gain / loss on sale of vessels -2,9 34,8 35,644,5 53,4 Total expenses 135,4 129,3 176,5

106,8 28,0 Operating profit before depreciation (EBITDA) 131,4 443,3 506,531,1 34,9 Depreciation 103,6 89,3 121,775,6 -6,9 Operating profit (EBIT) 27,8 354,1 384,8

-36,1 -30,2 Financial items -81,9 -47,1 -33,939,5 -37,2 Net profit (loss) before min. & taxes -54,1 307,0 350,80,3 0,0 Taxes 0,0 0,3 0,40,0 0,0 Cum. Effect of change in acc. principle 0,0 32,3 32,3

39,3 -37,2 Net profit (loss) -54,1 339,1 382,7

FX gain 1.4 2,4 Interest income 7,8-18,2 Interest expense -55,4

Equity SL -15.4 -1,4 Share of result in assoc -9,8Int. swaps - 0.5 -17,1 Other financial items -16,4

4,1 Foreign currency gain / loss -8,0

21

Page 22: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Associated companiesAs at 30.09.02

Debt outstanding

Our share

Guarantee liability

•Rasmussen K/S parts nil nil nil•Front Tobago (40%) partners OSG and Euronav 14,0 5,6 2,4•Ariake (33%), partner OSG and Euronav 51,5 17,2 4,7•Sakura (33%), partner OSG and Euronav 51,5 17,2 4,7•Ichiban (33%), partner OSG and Euronav 47,8 15,9 5,3•Tanabe (33%), partner OSG and Euronav 50,3 16,7 5,6•Hakata (33%), partner OSG and Euronav 52,5 17,5 5,8•Edinburgh (50,1%), partner OSG 27,6 13,8 4,1•Dundee (50,1%), partner OSG 27,6 13,8 4,1•Golden Fountain (50%) partner Euronav 32,1 16,0 32,1•New Circassia (50%) partners Ropner and Runciman 54,2 27,1 54,2•Pacific Lagoon (50%) partner Euronav 53,8 26,9 53,8

Total = 462,9 187,8 176,9

Yen denominated debt 119,9Our share 60,0

22

Page 23: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

JPY exposure and interest exposure of short term + long term debt and capital leases

Yen denominated debt/capital leases 30.09.2002 30.06.2002 ChangeConsolidated 133 091 139 689 -6 598Associated companies, our share 59 970 78 274 -18 304Total 193 062 217 963 -24 901

Floating debt 30.09.2002 30.06.2002 ChangeConsolidated 1 059 323 1 057 648 1 675Associated companies, our share 187 828 191 901 -4 074Total 1 247 151 1 249 549 -2 398

Total debt/capital leases 30.09.2002 30.06.2002 ChangeConsolidated 1 661 526 1 665 998 -4 472Associated companies, our share 187 828 191 901 -4 074Total 1 849 354 1 857 900 -8 546

23

Page 24: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Balance sheet - AssetsUSD million Q3 2002 Q3 2001 2 001

Short termCash and Bank deposits 84,8 117,4 189,3Marketable securities 1,0 0,3 1,2Other current assets 90,1 96,6 87,5

Long termNewbuildings 65,2 101,0 102,8Vessels and equipment, net 2 562,5 2 502,8 2 514,2Associated companies 110,3 98,6 109,9Goodwill 11,9 14,2 14,0Deferred charges and other assets 6,0 16,9 15,0Total assets 2 931,9 2 947,6 3 033,8

Oscilla 8.4

Trade rec./Voyages in progress 50.4Prepayment/inventory 31.4Other 8.3

24

Page 25: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Balance sheet - AssetsUSD million Q3 2002 Q32001 2 001

Short termCash and cash equivalents 84,8 117,4 189,3Marketable securities 1,0 0,3 1,2Other current assets 90,1 96,6 87,5

Long termNewbuildings and vessel purchase option 65,2 101,0 102,8Vessels and equipment, net 2 562,5 2 502,8 2 514,2Investment in associated companies 110,3 98,6 109,9Goodwill 11,9 14,2 14,0Deferred charges and other long-term ass 6,0 16,9 15,0Total assets 2 931,9 2 947,6 3 033,8

FL 2,414.1 GOGL 154.5

GOGL includes 2 capes, 1 handy and 1 VL

FL Capital lease 201.1includes 3 VLs

GOGL Capital lease 28.8includes 1 cape

25

Page 26: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Balance sheet - LiabilitiesUSD million Q3 2002 Q3 2001 2 001

Short termShort term interest bearing debt 213,0 223,9 227,6Other current liabilities 72,4 70,5 87,5

Long termLong term interest bearing debt 1 218,1 1 331,1 1 164,4Other long term liabilites 252,1 104,0 295,1Minority 6,1 6,8Stockholder's equity 1 176,3 1 212,0 1 252,4

Total stockholders' equity and liab. 2 931,9 2 947,6 3 033,8

Corp loans / cr lines 17.5Ship mort loans core FL 140.3GOGL 55.1

Corporate loans 9.0 Ship mort loans core FL 1,147.9GOGL 61.1

FL capital lease 196.9 GOGL cap lease 21.0Other 34.2

26

Page 27: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Remaining N/B commitments

Q4 02 Q1 03 Q2 03Gross cap. ex 109 0 59Bank loan 99 0 50Equity financing 10 0 9

27

Page 28: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Breakeven rates (USD / day)

Cash Breakeven P/L Breakeven

VLCC 22 150 21 000Suezmax 14 200 12 800Suezmax OBO 14 100 14 400

28

Page 29: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Breakeven requirements are very lowVLCC TCE versus Cash

Breakeven

0,00010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

100,000ja

n-90

jan-

91

jan-

92

jan-

93

jan-

94

jan-

95

jan-

96

jan-

97

jan-

98

jan-

99

jan-

00

jan-

01

jan-

02

USD

/day

VLCC TCE Cash Breakeven November 2002 Average TCE in the period 29Source TCE: Clarksons

Page 30: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Breakeven requirements are very low

Suezmax TCE versus Cash Breakeven

0,00010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000

jan-

90

jan-

91

jan-

92

jan-

93

jan-

94

jan-

95

jan-

96

jan-

97

jan-

98

jan-

99

jan-

00

jan-

01

jan-

02

US

D/d

ay

Suezmax TCE Cash Breakeven November 2002 Average TCE in the period

30Source TCE: Clarksons

Page 31: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Appendixes

31

Page 32: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Income on time charter basisQ3 01 Q3 02 USD'000s 9M 2002 9M 2001 2 001

50 035 31 093 VLCC, spot 89 084 214 353 243 886- 11 920 VLCC, T/C and B/B vessels 44 540 - -

42 073 26 919 Suezmax 89 402 181 590 220 78716 133 9 620 Suezmax OBO 33 289 65 372 79 435

Q3 01 Q3 02 Trading days minus off hire 9M 2002 9M 2001 2 001

1 625 2 089 VLCC, spot 5 465 4 504 5 973 - 464 VLCC, T/C vessels 1 612 - -

1 818 1 885 Suezmax 5 559 5 324 7 195703 718 Suezmax OBO 2 141 2 052 2 746

32

Page 33: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Total expensesQ3 2001 Q3 2002 USD million 9M 2002 9M 2001 2001

32,2 29,0 Ship operating expenses 86,4 89,6 121,510,5 19,7 Charterhire expenses 39,3 31,5 41,91,8 4,7 Administrative expenses 9,7 8,1 13,2

Increased w ith 4 BP vessels from Q3

33

Page 34: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Off balance sheet vessels

•Front Century

•Front Champion

•Front Warrior

•Golden Victory

34

Page 35: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Estimated oil demand/supply 2002

Avg. 01 Q102 Q202 Q302 Q402 Avg. 02

Demand* 76,4 76,9 75,6 76,5 78,0 76,8

Supply* 76,9 75,8 75,4 76,2 77,9 76,4

*)Based on JP Morgan estimates as of November 15, 2002

35

Page 36: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Estimated oil demand/supply 2003

Avg. 02 Q103 Q203 Q303 Q403 Avg. 03

Demand* 76,8 77,8 76,3 77,5 78,7 77,6

Supply* 76,4 77,8 77,2 77,8 78,4 77,8

*)Based on JP Morgan estimates as of November 15, 2002

36

Page 37: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Oil production Change 2000 2001 2002 2000 - 2002

Canada 2,68 2,74 2,85 0,17Mexico 3,45 3,56 3,59 0,14USA 8,11 8,05 8,10Argentina 0,82 0,82 0,80Brazil 1,50 1,58 1,77 0,27Colombia 0,71 0,63 0,59 -0,12Ecuador 0,41 0,42 0,39Denmark 0,37 0,35 0,37Norway 3,35 3,42 3,31UK 2,60 2,45 2,42 -0,18Oman 0,96 0,96 0,90Syria 0,54 0,55 0,53Yemen 0,54 0,46 0,46Australia 0,82 0,73 0,72 -0,1Brunei 0,20 0,20 0,19China 3,25 3,31 3,38India 0,79 0,78 0,76Malaysia 0,81 0,79 0,80Vietnam 0,32 0,35 0,32Angola 0,75 0,73 0,90 0,15Egypt 0,80 0,76 0,73Gabon 0,33 0,30 0,29Total 34,11 33,94 34,17

Other / smaller prod 2,40 2,44Refinery proc gain 1,76 1,79

Non OPEC supply ex FSU 38,10 38,4037

Page 38: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Oil productionChange

2000 2001 2002 2000 - 2002Russia 6,54 7,05 7,59 1,05Kazakhstan 0,75 0,83 0,95 0,2Other FSU 0,75 0,77 0,79FSU 8,04 8,65 9,33

OPEC NGL / Condensate 2,90 3,00Call on OPEC crude 26,70 26,00Stockbuild 0,50 -0,40OPEC crude 27,20 25,50

38

Page 39: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Difference in TCE – old/modern VLCCs

Needed daily cash to cover expenses:

Daily op ex 8000D/D res / upgrading (USD 2 million per 2.5 years) 2200Cash cover 10200

TC modern VLCC 21000- difference extra speed / consumption TT -9000- tech offhire 20 days extra -700- commercial offhire 50 days -1700Effective TC old TT 9600 39

Page 40: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

VLCC fleet development (year-on-year growth)

116

118

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

nov.99 feb.00 mai.00 aug.00 nov.00 feb.01 mai.01 aug.01 nov.01 feb.02 mai.02 aug.02 nov.02

40Source: P.F. Bassøe

Page 41: Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/882310/110683.pdf · This sale reduced the JPY exposure by a further $15 Million. 4. Supply VLCC’s / Suezmaxes

Suezmax fleet development (year-on-year growth)

38,0

38,5

39,0

39,5

40,0

40,5

41,0

41,5

42,0

42,5

43,0

nov.99 feb.00 mai.00 aug.00 nov.00 feb.01 mai.01 aug.01 nov.01 feb.02 mai.02 aug.02 nov.02

41Source: P.F. Bassøe