Q4: Big Data Idea: Terrorist Attacks Worldwide 1970-2015

Aim

The aim of this project is to explore acts of terrorism committed worldwide between 1970 and 2015 to gain an understanding in how the targets and methods of terrorism have changed over time, and to demonstrate that the overall frequency of terrorist attacks has increased. I will also analyse how many attacks can be attributed to known terrorist organisations compared to those of which the perpetrator remains unknown, as well as number of fatalities, number of wounded, and type of attack.

Objectives

Import existing public dataset from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) Analyse the data using Excel graphing tools Visualisation of the data using Google Fusion Tables Determine findings and present patterns Future predictions and applications

Purpose

I believe this topic will be interesting to analyse, as whilst the presence of terrorism around the globe has increased, the largest concentrations of terrorism have changed overtime due to the political climate. The largest concentrations for any time period can often be correlated to civil unrest or an active war zone in the region. If the analysis proves effective, then the results could be used to forecast terrorism based on recent political happenings, and aid in the counteraction of a climate of fear caused by large scale or large volume attacks.

Background

Terrorism can be defined as the ‘unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims’ (Oxford Living Dictionaries 2016). The goal of these acts of violence is often not the actual target of the attack, but to incite terror in specific communities surrounding the target. For example, the Black September Organization’s attack at the 1972 Munich Olympics killed 11 Israelis, however the true target was the ~1 billion people watching the event live (Terrorism Research 2016). International terrorism is largely prevalent in today’s society, especially in the Middle East and across Eastern Europe with the rise of ISIL and the mass exodus of civilians from the region has caused mass paranoia. Groups such as ISIL and Al Qaida hold territory in places without functioning governments, making it easier to expand their forces and gather resources for more attacks. Domestic extremism refers to acts committed in pursuit of a larger agenda, often seeking to influence domestic policy or national politics (MI5 2016).

Data Collection

The dataset I am using I acquired from the Global Terrorism Database, an open-source database containing data currently containing 156,772 records on acts of terrorism between 1970 and 2015. The dataset includes 111 different attributes about each record, therefore I have removed any attributes which are mostly null or empty, and those which are specific to each record, such as notes or summaries. Below is a list of attributes which I will be using for my analysis:

Year Country Latitude and Longitude (for map visualisation) Attack type Target type

Original dataset as retrieved from the Global Terrorism Database:

Modified dataset with unused columns removed:

Data Analysis with Visualisation

Number of attacks by type each decade I decided to first analyse which type of attack is more prevalent worldwide per decade by representing the count of each attack type in a stacked bar chart, with a bar for each decade.

Despite being a smaller time period than the others due to data only being recorded until December 2015, the 2010-2015 bar clearly shows that more overall attacks occurred in that 5 year period than any other decade represented. The top two attack types can be identified as being bombing/explosion and armed assault. The lesser 3, barely visible at the base of each bar, are hostage taking, kidnapping and unarmed assault, of which each numbers less than 500 per decade, which is too small a number to be clearly visible on this graph.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Number of Attacks by Type each Decade

Bombing/Explosion

Armed Assault

Assassination

Hostage Taking (Kidnapping)

Facility/Infrastructure Attack

Unknown

Hostage Taking (BarricadeIncident)

Unarmed Assault

Hijacking

Percentage of each target type One of the most important attributes to look at if attempting to forecast potential terrorist attacks I feel would be what type of target the attack was against, as it would indicate which types terrorists believe are either most susceptible to attack, or are deemed high-value targets in terms of how fear-inducing an attack on such a target would be. I have represented the data in a pie chart, each segment indicating the percentage of all the attacks that were against this target type.

Although the graph displays a large variety of different target types, almost a quarter of all attack were against airports and aircraft. This makes sense in terms of the goals of terrorism; there is often a large volume of people at airports to target, and the ability to skirt counter-terrorism measures at airports makes a mockery of airport security nationwide (Dallas Observer 2016). The next 3 top targets are Police, Government and Military, which would most likely be in countries experiencing a period of civil unrest or revolution such as the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution in which a series of riots and acts of terror resulted in a restructure of Ukraine’s socio-political system (The Telegraph 2014)

0.2%1.0%

13.2%

2.6%

0.2%

2.4%

13.2%

1.8%

0.2%

13.1%0.6%0.2%

13.3%

22.1%

2.5%

0.7%

1.5%

0.3%

4.5%1.6%

3.9% 1.0%

Percentage of each Target type 1970 - 2015

Abortion Related Airports & Aircraft Business Educational Institution

Food or Water Supply Government (Diplomatic) Government (General) Journalists & Media

Maritime Military NGO Other

Police Private Citizens & Property Religious Figures/Institutions Telecommunication

Terrorists/Non-State Militia Tourists Transportation Unknown

Utilities Violent Political Party

Total terrorist attacks by country by year I have already determined from previous analysis that terrorism as a whole is increasing worldwide, however this is not necessarily the case for every country. The graph below counts the number of attacks occurring

The chart shows that the total number of terrorist attacks per year has increased rapidly in Eastern Europe, Middle East & North Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. A more steady increase after a period of decline is evident in Western Europe, and a sharp decline can be seen for Central America & Caribbean and South America. The largest spike, that being in the last two decades in the Middle East & Northern Africa is due to the presence of large extremist organisations such as IS, Al Qaida and Boko Haram.

Map displaying attacks by decade

I have imported the data into Google Fusion Tables, displaying the data on the map by

latitude and longitude. I have then modified the existing map features to highlight the points

from each decade in different colours (Google 2015).

The marker colours are as follows: 1970-1979 Yellow, 1980-1989 Green, 1990-1999 Blue,

2000-2009 Purple and 2010-2015 Red.

The map clearly displays large concentrations of terrorist attacks, and using the decade as

an indicator, we can associate each concentration with a political event. For example: the

map below shows a concentration of data points in and around El Salvador between 1980

and 1989. This correlates with the Salvadoran Civil War, which spanned from 1979 to 1992.

Also shown is a spread of data in Colombia between 1980 and 2000, which correlates to the

height of the Colombian Conflict and the War on Drugs (International Crisis Group 2014).

Attacks by decade filtered by organization responsible

The map below shows the attacks by decade filtered by those committed by any variation of

the IRA (Irish Republican Army). The map shows that most of the attacks took place in

Northern Ireland, where the IRA mainly operated. The map also displays several unclustered

and more recent attacks that have taken place outside of Ireland.

The next organization I decided to filter by is Islamic State, referred to in this data set as both

ISI (Islamic State of Iraq) and ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) although they are

the same organization.

This map shows main clusters in Iraq and Syria, both of which contain IS controlled territory

at some point during the current decade. It also shows several attacks in Africa, Turkey, and

France.

Results of Analysis

My analysis of the data shows that the majority of terrorist attacks are lethal, high-threat

attacks such as bombings, armed assaults and assassination. Whether this is actually the

case, or whether some incidents have been construed as domestic crime instead of acts of

terrorism isn’t clear from this dataset. Also, the majority of targets can be classified as

authority organizations, which suggests that most acts of terror are in response to the

political climate, and less so targeted towards domestic policies or sociological factors.

Therefore some areas of the world civilians have a large amount of distaste for their current

political situation, as a large concentration of similar acts of terror often indicate the current

public opinion. Such was the case in El Salvador, where the liberation front fought against

the oppressive military control, and the conflict resulted in military reform and an amnesty

law (Wood. E 2003). However a large concentration of data in one location can also imply

the presence of an extremist group in the area, as is the case with Iraq (IS) and across

Africa (Boko Haram).

A large amount attacks were also targeted at airports & aircraft, indicating that airport

security systems and border control are not employing sufficient countermeasures to deter

or prevent terrorist attacks from occurring there.

Overall the data shows that overall acts of terror are increasing in number, and high

concentrations of recent attacks in the Middle East (particularly either side of Iraq) indicate

ISIL and Al Qaida attempting to wrest control of more territory, and by rallying support in

areas controlled by national governments, they encourage more attacks.

Future Developments

The mapping of previous concentrations of terrorist attacks along with big political events in

those regions could provide insight into potential future political events or changes in other

regions, allowing for predictions of the scale of unrest possibly leading to protests or riots.

Two such examples would be when controversial President-elect Donald Trump takes office

in the US in January 2017, and when the UK triggers its leave from the EU. Another

application is investigating an increasing concentration of attacks with no clear political

motivation would suggest the presence of an extremist group in the area.

The data could be further filtered by the type of weapon used, which in combination with a

map visualisation could provide an insight into areas which are potentially supplying

weapons to terrorists. Type of attack could also be combined with fatality/casualty data to

determine the most lethal type of terrorist attack, and estimate the casualty count for in-

progress terrorist attacks. Furthermore, the concentration of terrorist attacks in recent times

may aid someone on where (not to) go on holiday.

References START Consortium (2016) Global Terrorism Database [online] Available at:

<https://www.kaggle.com/START-UMD/gtd> [Accessed on: 6 Dec. 2016]

Oxford Living Dictionaries (2016) Definition of terrorism in English [online] Available at:

<https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/terrorism> [Accessed on: 6 Dec. 2016]

Terrorism Research (2016) What is Terrorism? [online] Available at: <http://www.terrorism-research.com/>

[Accessed on: 6 Dec. 2016)

MI5 (2016) What We Do: Terrorism [online] Available at: <https://www.mi5.gov.uk/terrorism> [Accessed on: 6

Dec. 2016]

Dallas Observer (2016) Why Terrorists Attack Airports [online] Available at:

<http://www.dallasobserver.com/news/why-terrorists-attack-airports-8147814> [Accessed on: 6 Dec.

2016]

The Telegraph (2014) Ukraine Revolution: Tuesday February 25 as it happened [online] Available at:

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10659755/Ukraine-revolution-live.html>

[Accessed on: 7 Dec. 2016]

Google (2016) Google Fusion Tables [online] Available at:

<https://sites.google.com/site/fusiontablestalks/stories> [Accessed on: 7 Dec. 2016]

International Crisis Group (2014) War and Drugs in Colombia translated [online] Available at:

<https://web.archive.org/web/20141020023452/http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/latin-america-

caribbean/andes/colombia/011-war-and-drugs-in-colombia.aspx?alt_lang=es> [Accessed on: 7 Dec.

2016]

Wood, E (2003) Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador [online] Available at:

<http://assets.cambridge.org/97805218/11750/sample/9780521811750ws.pdf> [Accessed on: 7 Dec.

2016]