quantification of disaster impacts 1. damage costs and estimated losses 2. dynamic effect on growth...

QUANTIFICATION QUANTIFICATION OF DISASTER OF DISASTER IMPACTSIMPACTS1.1. Damage costs and estimated lossesDamage costs and estimated losses2.2. Dynamic effect on growth and other Dynamic effect on growth and other

variablesvariables3.3. Composition of damage (by sectors and Composition of damage (by sectors and

type)type)Data from ECLAC led disaster assessmentsData from ECLAC led disaster assessments

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation

2UN - ECLAC

IMPACT OF DISASTERS IN LATINA AMERICA IMPACT OF DISASTERS IN LATINA AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN – 1972-2005AND THE CARIBBEAN – 1972-2005(based on ECLAC assessments)(based on ECLAC assessments)

PERIODPERIOD AFFECTED AFFECTED POPULATIONPOPULATION

TOTAL IMPACT (CONSTANT 2004 VALUE)TOTAL IMPACT (CONSTANT 2004 VALUE)

DeathsDeaths Directly Directly affected affected

populationpopulation

TOTALTOTAL DAMAGE DAMAGE (to assets)(to assets)

LOSSES LOSSES (in flows)(in flows)

External External impactimpact

1972-20051972-2005 115,176115,176 35,463,89035,463,890 232,259.4232,259.4 150,335.0150,335.0 80,424.380,424.3 77,221.077,221.0

YEARLY YEARLY AVERAGE AVERAGE (on the basis of (on the basis of

ECLAC assessed ECLAC assessed disasters in Latin disasters in Latin America and the America and the

Caribbean)Caribbean)

3,4903,490 1,074,6631,074,663 7,038.27,038.2 4,555.64,555.6 2,437.12,437.1 2,340.02,340.0


3UN - ECLAC

DIFFERENT IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT EVENTS DIFFERENT IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT EVENTS (as observed in ECLAC assessments, 1972-2005)(as observed in ECLAC assessments, 1972-2005)

AFFECTED POPULATION

TOTAL IMPACT (constant 2004 prices)

Deaths Directly affected

population

TOTAL DAMAGE (to assets)

LOSSES (in flows)

External sector impact

METEOROLOGICAL (CLIMATIC) EVENTS

50,424 24,945,145 118,926 73,382 43,304 35,600

GEOMORPHOLOGICAL (SISMIC, VOLCANIC)

EVENTS

64,752 10,518,745 113,334 76,953 37,120 41,621

Droughts 35 2,200,000 10,599 5,888 4,712 3,141

TOTAL ASSESSED EVENTS 115,176 35,463,890 232,259.4 150,335.0 80,424.3 77,221.0

Meteorological as % of total 44% 70% 51% 49% 54% 46%

Droughts as % of total 0.07% 8.82% 8.91% 8.02% 10.88% 8.82%

Damage composition

total 64.7% 34.6% 33.2%

Meteorological or climatic 61.7% 36.4% 29.9%

Non-climatic 67.9% 32.8% 36.7%

Droughts 55.5% 44.5% 29.6%


4UN - ECLAC

GDP GROWTH RATE

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Yea

r ra

te

]Before disaster After disaster

Global dynamic effectsGlobal dynamic effectsMacroeconomic effectsMacroeconomic effects Repercussions are felt in the Repercussions are felt in the

national, local or regional national, local or regional economy as a consequence of economy as a consequence of the disaster (natural event)the disaster (natural event)

It may last for several years It may last for several years after the disaster, depending on after the disaster, depending on the characteristics of the event, the characteristics of the event, its magnitude and the sectors / its magnitude and the sectors / activities affectedactivities affected

Are measurable asAre measurable as Growth rate and level of GDPGrowth rate and level of GDP Performance of the external Performance of the external

sector (imports, exports, sector (imports, exports, transfers and investment)transfers and investment)

Performance of public financesPerformance of public finances Price variations and inflationPrice variations and inflation


5UN - ECLAC

CUMULATIVE IMPACT of successive disasters on CUMULATIVE IMPACT of successive disasters on gross capital formationgross capital formation

**** **

**TIMETIME

GR

OS

S C

AP

ITA

L F

OR

MA

TIO

NG

RO

SS

CA

PIT

AL

FO

RM

AT

ION

ACTUAL CAPITAL FORMATIONACTUAL CAPITAL FORMATION

POTENTIAL GROWTH PATHPOTENTIAL GROWTH PATH** DISASTERDISASTER


6UN - ECLAC

HUMANHUMAN

-HealthHealth

-EducationEducation

NATURALNATURAL

-Clean waterClean water

-Clean airClean air

-Biodiversity and Biodiversity and ecosystem ecosystem (microclimate)(microclimate)

FINANCIALFINANCIAL

-Access to creditAccess to credit

-Land tenure and ownershipLand tenure and ownership

PHYSICALPHYSICAL

-Type and quality of Type and quality of settlement and settlement and housinghousing

SOCIALSOCIAL

-Social networks (security and Social networks (security and solidarity)solidarity)

-Family ties and extended familyFamily ties and extended family

-Violence and securityViolence and security


7UN - ECLAC

1

10

100HUMAN

SOCIAL

NATURALFINANCIAL

PHYSICAL

Past Current Mid-term Long term


8UN - ECLAC


9UN - ECLAC

PROCESSES PROCESSES (DRIVERS)(DRIVERS)

VULNERABILITIES VULNERABILITIES (RESPONSES)(RESPONSES)

CLIMATE CLIMATE STRESSORSSTRESSORS

COPING CAPACITYCOPING CAPACITY SENSITIVITYSENSITIVITY EXPOSURESEXPOSURES


10UN - ECLAC

El Niño 97-98 effects in the main economic El Niño 97-98 effects in the main economic variables of Andean countriesvariables of Andean countries

-3

-2

-1

0

%

GDP DECREASE IN 1998

Bolivia

Colombia

Ecuador

Perú

Venezuela -40

-20

0

%

EXPORT DECREASE IN 1998

Bolivia

Colombia

Ecuador

Perú

Venezuela

0

5

10

%

PREVENTION AND EMERGENCY EXPENDITURE VS. FISCAL BUDGET IN 1998

Bolivia

Colombia

Ecuador

Perú

Venezuela 0

10

20

30

40

%

ECUADOR ANNUAL INFLATION RATE

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998


11UN - ECLAC

Macroeconomic effect: decreased Macroeconomic effect: decreased national growth ratesnational growth rates

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

%

GDP decrease in 1998-9

Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua

-0.3-0.3 -0.3-0.3 -1.4-1.4

-9.0-9.0

-0.9-0.9


12UN - ECLAC

Impact of disasters on GDP growth in Honduras

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Growth without Mitch or drought Growth with Mitch and drought

MITCHMITCH

DROUGHTDROUGHT


13UN - ECLAC

Impact of disasters on Nicaragua´ s GDP

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Growth without Mitch or drought Growth with Mitch and drought

MITCH

DROUGHT


14UN - ECLAC

Disasters Impact on El Salvador´ s GDP

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Growth without disasters

Growth with Mitch, earthquakes, drought and hurricane Stan

MITCH

EARTHQUAKE

DROUGHT

STANSTAN


15UN - ECLAC

Hurricane Stan in El Salvador:Hurricane Stan in El Salvador:Breakdown of damage and lossesBreakdown of damage and losses

Sector and sub sectorSector and sub sector

Damage,Damage,

Millions US$Millions US$

Losses, Losses,

Millions US$Millions US$

TOTALTOTAL

SocialSocialHousingHousingEducationEducationHealthHealth

48.048.036.036.0 4.94.9 7.17.1

101.5101.5 77.177.1 12.212.2 12.212.2

149.5149.5113.1113.1 17.017.0 19.319.3

ProductiveProductiveAgricultureAgricultureIndustryIndustryCommerceCommerceTourismTourism

21.721.721.621.6------------0.10.1

34.434.427.127.1 3.13.1 4.34.3 4.14.1

56.156.148.748.7 3.13.1 4.34.3 4.14.1

InfrastructureInfrastructureWater and sanitationWater and sanitationElectricityElectricityTransportTransport

105.5105.5 8.58.5 0.80.8 96.296.2

8.18.1 3.33.3-1.2-1.2 6.86.8

113.5113.5 11.811.8 -1.3-1.3103.0103.0

EnvironmentEnvironment 21.021.0 0.90.9 21.821.8

Emergency and reliefEmergency and relief ------ 10.610.6 10.610.6

TOTALTOTAL 196.2196.2 159.5159.5 355.6355.6


16UN - ECLAC

Impact of disasters on Guatemala´ s GDP

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Growth without disasters Growth with Mitch and drought

MITCH

DROUGHT

STANSTAN


17UN - ECLAC

Hurricane Stan in Guatemala: Hurricane Stan in Guatemala: Breakdown of damage and lossesBreakdown of damage and losses

Sector and sub sectorSector and sub sector

Damage,Damage,Millions of QuetzalesMillions of Quetzales

Losses, Losses, Millions QuetzalesMillions Quetzales

TotalTotal

SocialSocialHousingHousingEducationEducationHealthHealth

629.9629.9545.2545.2 52.652.6 29.129.1

543.2543.2 455.0455.0 9.39.3 78.978.9

,1,170.1,1,170.1 1,000.21,000.2 61.961.9 108.0108.0

ProductiveProductiveAgricultureAgricultureIndustryIndustryCommerceCommerceTourismTourism

305.9305.9178.9178.9 75.075.0 50.050.0 2.02.0

1,736.11,736.1 411.8411.8 355.8355.8 564.9564.9 403.6403.6

2,042.02,042.0 590.7590.7 430.8430.8 614.9614.9 405.6405.6

InfrastructureInfrastructureWater and sanitationWater and sanitationElectricityElectricityTransportTransport

1,959.51,959.5 46.446.4 22.122.1 1,891.01,891.0

1,436.81,436.8 43.743.7 16.316.3 1,376.81,376.8

3,396.33,396.3 90.190.1 38.438.43,267.83,267.8

EnvironmentEnvironment 308.0308.0 ...... 308.0308.0Emergency and reliefEmergency and relief ------ 594.8594.8 594.8594.8TOTALTOTAL 3,200.33,200.3 4,310.94,310.9 7,511.27,511.2


18UN - ECLAC

Impact of disasters on Costa Rica´ s GDP

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Growth without disasters Growth with Mitch and drought

MITCH

DROUGHT


19UN - ECLAC

Gujarat (INDIA): Total Damage from disasters and Calamity fund budgeted resources (Crores of Rupees)

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

3500.00

90-91 91-92 92-93 1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

97-98 1998 1999 99-2000

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2004 2005

Total Damage (Crores)Calamity Relief Fund (from Finance Commision, Delhi)Amount spent on calamity relief and rehabilitation buy State Govt.


20UN - ECLAC

Impact of disasters on GDP: State of Impact of disasters on GDP: State of Gujarat, IndiaGujarat, India

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

SGDP with disasters Potential growth without disastrs

Logarítmica (Potential growth without disastrs) Logarítmica (SGDP with disasters)


21UN - ECLAC

Summary of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, by Summary of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, by countrycountry

CountryCountry DamageDamage LossesLosses Total ImpactTotal Impact Magnitude,Magnitude,

Impact/GDPImpact/GDP

IndiaIndia 575575 649649 1,2241,224 0.20.2

IndonesiaIndonesia 2,9202,920 1,5311,531 4,4514,451 2.02.0

MaldivesMaldives 450450 153153 603603 83.683.6

Sri LankaSri Lanka 1,1441,144 310310 1,4541,454 7.67.6

ThailandThailand 508508 1,6901,690 2,1982,198 1.41.4

Total RegionTotal Region 5,5975,597 4,3674,367 9,9639,963 1.01.0


22UN - ECLAC

Breakdown of 2004 Tsunami impactBreakdown of 2004 Tsunami impact

Social 29%

Productive53%

Infrastructure18%


23UN - ECLAC

Absolute and relative impact of 2004 Indian Absolute and relative impact of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on main affected countriesOcean tsunami on main affected countries

0.2 1.01.42.0

83.6

7.60

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

India Indonesia Maldives Sri Lanka Thailand TotalRegion

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Total Impact Magnitude, Impact/GDP


24UN - ECLAC

Tsunami impact: Gap between forecasted and actual Tsunami impact: Gap between forecasted and actual GDP growth in 2004-2005GDP growth in 2004-2005

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

India Indonesia Maldives Sri Lanka Thailand

Pre-Disaster forecasted GDP Growth, %

Post-disaster estimated GDP growth


25UN - ECLAC

2004 Tsunami impact in India: Absolute and relative 2004 Tsunami impact in India: Absolute and relative value of damage and losses by affected statesvalue of damage and losses by affected states

545.0

1,057.0

94.0

73.00.83%

2.45%

4.02%

0.15%

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

AndhraPradesh

Kerala Tamil Nadu Pondichery

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

US$ million Total damage and losses as percentage of GSDP


26UN - ECLAC

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE ATLANTIC 2004 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE ATLANTIC 2004 HURRICANE SEASONHURRICANE SEASON

Island / StateIsland / State Economic impactEconomic impact EventEvent

Millions of US$Millions of US$

Assessed by ECLACAssessed by ECLAC 6,0596,059 Ivan, Frances and Jeanne a/Ivan, Frances and Jeanne a/

Bahamas Bahamas 551551 Hurricanes Frances and JeanneHurricanes Frances and Jeanne

Cayman IslandsCayman Islands 3,4323,432 IvanIvan

Dominican RepublicDominican Republic 296296 Tropical storm JeanneTropical storm Jeanne

Granada Granada 889889 IvanIvan

Haití Haití 296296 JeanneJeanne

Jamaica Jamaica 595595 IvanIvan

Florida (a)Florida (a) 30,00030,000 Jeanne, Charley and FrancesJeanne, Charley and Frances

Cuba (b)Cuba (b) 1,5001,500 FrancesFrances

Total (including Cuba y Florida)Total (including Cuba y Florida) 37,55937,559

a) Based on information provided by insurance and reinsurance companies (Munich Re)a) Based on information provided by insurance and reinsurance companies (Munich Re)

b) Official estimates from t he Cuban government, may not include lossesb) Official estimates from t he Cuban government, may not include losses


27UN - ECLAC

2004 Atlantic Hurricanes: Relative and absolute impact 2004 Atlantic Hurricanes: Relative and absolute impact of damage and losses by affected country / stateof damage and losses by affected country / state

551 3,432 296 889 595296

183.00%

1.70%

8.00%

10.50%

212.00%

7.30%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

HurricanesFrances

and Jeanne

HurricaneIvan

TropicalStorm

Jeanne

HurricaneIvan

HurricaneJeanne

HurricaneIvan

Bahamas CaymanIslands

DominicanRepublic

Grenada Haiti Jamaica

US

$ m

illi

on

s

1.00%

10.00%

100.00%

1000.00%

Economic Impact, US$ million Impact as % of GDP


28UN - ECLAC

Damage profile in the Damage profile in the Caribbean Hurricane 2004 Caribbean Hurricane 2004 seasonseason

Composition of damage and losses

Productive Sectors

35.2%

Infrastructure 15.6%

Social Sectors

47.5%

Environment

1.3%

Emergency and relief 0.4%


29UN - ECLAC

2005 Atlantic Hurricane season2005 Atlantic Hurricane season DeathsDeaths Directly Directly affected affected


Total Total impact impact

(millions (millions of USD)of USD)

Damage Damage (to (to

assets)assets)

Losses Losses (in flows)(in flows)

Per capita Per capita impact on impact on affected affected


DateDate LocationLocation Type of eventType of event PopulationPopulation Total impact (millions of USD)Total impact (millions of USD)

JanuaryJanuary GuyanaGuyana Flood due to intense rainfall in Flood due to intense rainfall in December/January period in December/January period in coastal floodplains in Georgetown coastal floodplains in Georgetown and Albionand Albion

3434 274,774274,774 465.1465.1 418.3418.3 46.846.8 1,692.71,692.7

OctoberOctober GuatemalaGuatemala Torrential rains, tropical storm Torrential rains, tropical storm StanStan

1,5831,583 474,821474,821 988.3988.3 421.1421.1 567.2567.2 2,081.42,081.4

OctoberOctober El El SalvadorSalvador

Torrential rains, tropical storm Torrential rains, tropical storm Stan, and Ilamatepec (Santa Ana) Stan, and Ilamatepec (Santa Ana) volcano eruptionvolcano eruption

6969 72,14172,141 355.7355.7 196.2196.2 159.5159.5 4,930.64,930.6

July-SeptemberJuly-September United United States b/States b/

Dennis, Katrina, RitaDennis, Katrina, Rita 1,6981,698 900,000900,000 200,000.0200,000.0 65,000.065,000.0 135,000.0135,000.0 222,222.2222,222.2

July-SeptemberJuly-September Mexico b/Mexico b/ Emily, Stan, Wilma, etc.Emily, Stan, Wilma, etc. 6464 2,680,5712,680,571 2,200.02,200.0 1,250.01,250.0 950.0950.0 820.7820.7

EmilyEmily 44 63,30063,300 413.2413.2 322.8322.8 90.490.4 6,527.56,527.5

AugustAugust Cuba b/Cuba b/ Dennis Dennis 1616 2,500,0002,500,000 1,400.01,400.0 950.0950.0 450.0450.0 560.0560.0

Other events a/Other events a/ 1,1341,134 3,474,3893,474,389 150.0150.0 100.0100.0 50.050.0 43.243.2

TOTALTOTAL Assessed by ECLACAssessed by ECLAC 1,6901,690 885,036885,036 2,2222,222 1,3581,358 864864 2,511.02,511.0

TOTAL (not including United States)TOTAL (not including United States) 2,9002,900 6,002,3076,002,307 5,5595,559 3,2363,236 2,1742,174 926.2926.2

TOTAL (IN CLUDING UNITED STATES)TOTAL (IN CLUDING UNITED STATES) 4,5984,598 6,902,3076,902,307 205,559205,559 68,23668,236 137,174137,174 29,781.229,781.2

Source: ECLAC estimatesSource: ECLAC estimates

Nota: Data for Mexico and United States are partial and reglect preliminary estimates. In the case of Mexico the complete assessment is in process Nota: Data for Mexico and United States are partial and reglect preliminary estimates. In the case of Mexico the complete assessment is in process by the official technical entitites.by the official technical entitites.

a/ Includes volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and floods in other countries and are an estimate on the basisof partial data.a/ Includes volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and floods in other countries and are an estimate on the basisof partial data.

b/ Based on diverse sources, not official estimates.b/ Based on diverse sources, not official estimates.

quantification of disaster impacts 1. damage costs and estimated losses 2. dynamic effect on growth...

Documents

zapata focal point

disaster evaluationr

disaster assessmentsr

disaster evaluationgrfico10

disaster evaluationel

disaster natural eventit

hoja en crecimiento

pib en 1998hoja2hoja3grfico1