quarterly spendtrend report: 1q19 - first data...executive summary 1q19 highlights (yoy growth) much...

Quarterly

SpendTrend®

Report: 1Q19

©2019 First Data Corporation. All rights reserved. The First Data® name,

logo and related trademarks and service marks are owned by First Data

Corporation and are registered or used in the U.S. and many foreign

countries. All trademarks, service marks, and trade names referenced in

this material are the property of their respective owners.

Executive summary

1Q19 Highlights (YoY Growth)

Much slower than 4Q18 and FY18

By Channel

+2.4% Brick & Mortar

+2.1% eCommerce

Down from +1.4% in 4Q18

Top Growth Categories

Non-Retail +8.1% Travel

Retail +4.4% Electronics

Slowest Performers

Non-Retail -0.9% Gas

Retail -3.7% Furniture

+5.8% Atlanta

+4.4% San Francisco

+4.3% Dallas

Regional Spend

+2.3% +1.0%

Total Spend

Retail Spend

LuxuryGoods

+4.8%

Midwest

Winner

+0.2%

Southwest

Slowest Grower

Top Growing Cities

RestaurantSpend

+5.0% Growth (↑)

+8.8% QSR

+3.7% Fast Casual

-0.8% Brick & Mortar

+5.1% eCommerce

+0.6%

Down from +3.5% in 4Q18

By Payment Type

+2.5% Credit

+1.2% Signature Debit

+4.1% PIN Debit

Total spendYoY Growth

There has been a steady

slowdown in spending

through the last three

quarters.

1Q19 was especially turbulent,

as February reeled from the

5-week government shutdown,

and a barrage of winter

storms.

But, consumer spending

rebounded strongly in March

to levels not seen since

August 2018. This helped

salvage 1Q19 results.

3

Note: Figures include all tracked spend across all categories, including Brick & Mortar and eCommerce channels.

Source: First Data® aggregated same-store spending data.

4.9%

2.8%

2.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Ju

l 18

Aug

18

Sep

18

3Q

18

Oct 1

8

Nov 1

8

Dec 1

8

4Q

18

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 1

9

1Q

19

1Q19

4

YoY Growth

Total spend by category



1.0%

2.7%2.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19

Retail Non-Retail Total Spend

Non-Retail growth

continued to exceed

Retail growth, with 1Q19

marking the fifth

consecutive quarter.

Retail growth was especially

difficult in 1Q19, given the

torrent of both natural and

man-made challenges that

consumers faced in January

and February.

5

The fastest growing

categories in 1Q19 were

scattered across several

industries.

Top growth categories

Computer /

Software Stores

11.3%

Real Estate

Agent Services

7.5%

Hardware

Stores

4.9%

Discount

Stores

4.2%

Steamship/

Cruise Lines

10.2%

Cosmetic

Stores

5.4%

YoY Growth

Auto/Truck New

and Used Parts

6.7%



Utilities –

Electric, Gas, Water

8.6%

QSR

8.8%

$

Performance by industry

6

Movement Across Last 8 months 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19

Gasoline Stations 15.3% 7.3% -0.9%

Travel 8.3% 7.4% 6.8%

Electronics and Appliances 6.7% 4.4% 4.4%

Retail Car/Truck Parts 5.8% 4.3% 4.9%

Specialty Retailers 5.2% 2.8% 2.3%

Restaurants 4.7% 4.6% 5.0%

Building Materials 4.3% 1.7% 1.9%

Other Services 4.1% 1.3% 1.6%

Health/Personal Care Stores 3.8% 2.5% 5.0%

Leisure 2.6% -0.2% -0.2%

Food and Beverage 2.4% 2.8% 3.3%

General Merchandise Stores 2.1% 0.8% -0.6%

Clothing and Accessories 1.4% 1.7% -1.0%

Selected Categories



While results were weaker

in virtually every industry

from 3Q18 into 4Q18, some

industries were able to

reverse their downward

trend and build momentum

in 1Q19.

Total spend by channel

Brick & Mortar’s growth

trajectory stalled after

3Q18, and has fallen in

each subsequent quarter.

Even though eCommerce has

consistently outpaced the

growth at brick and mortar

stores, it too has had a steady

decline in growth over the last

five quarters.

7

YoY Growth



2.4%2.1% 2.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Brick & Mortar eCommerce Total Spending

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19

1Q19

Total spend by component

Transaction growth has

continued to be the bigger

influence on total

spending growth results,

more so than growth in

the average spend per

transaction.

In 4Q18 and 1Q19, average

ticket growth stalled and

actually dipped into negative

territory – a signal that

consumers were much more

conservative in their spend per

trip.

8

YoY Growth



3.0%

-0.7%

2.3%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19

Transactions Average Ticket Total Spend

Retail spendYoY Growth

9

Like Total spending,

Retail spending growth

has gradually slowed

since a high in 3Q18.

1Q19 was a turbulent quarter

for Retail, with February

growth hitting -1.2%, only to

rebound to 2.3% in March.

1Q19



3.1%

1.4%1.0%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Ju

l 18

Aug

18

Sep

18

3Q

18

Oct 1

8

Nov 1

8

Dec 1

8

4Q

18

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 1

9

1Q

19

Segment look: Luxury

Note: “Luxury” is defined by a collection of well-known consumer brands which offer high-priced designer clothing,

accessories, and shoes.


eCommerce continues to

be the primary driver of

growth in Luxury goods.

However, in 1Q19 there was a

clear and deliberate slowdown

on Luxury spending. It serves

as a reminder that discretionary

categories like this can be

vulnerable to market instability.

10

YoY Growth

-0.8%

5.1%

0.6%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

Brick & Mortar eCommerce Total Luxury

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19

1Q19

Segment look:Dining

Note: “Casual Dining” includes full service restaurants which serve alcohol. “Family Dining” includes full service

restaurants which do not offer alcohol. “Fast Casual” is a limited-service or self-service restaurant with made-to-order

foods, and which may also serve wine/beer. “QSR” represents traditional fast food restaurants. “Upscale Dining” includes

full-service restaurants which serve alcohol, and are characterized by certain service standards and comparatively higher

average ticket sizes. Data does not include coffee houses and other sub-categories of Dining.


QSR has had steady

momentum, and growth

hit a 5-quarter high of

8.8% in 1Q19, driven in

part by continued digital

penetration.

Family Dining and Upscale

Dining each also had strong

momentum through 1Q19. Fast

Casual slowed just slightly from

4Q18.

11

YoY Growth

1.9%

3.9% 3.7%

8.8%

1.1%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

Casual Dining Family Dining Fast Casual QSR Upscale Dining

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19

Total spend by top US cities*

Note: *Top US cities based on total spending volume as reported by First Data. Ranked in descending

order of 1Q19 spending growth. Figures include all tracked spend across all Retail categories, including

Brick & Mortar and eCommerce channels.

Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.

Across the board, the top

US cities saw spending

growth slow down from

FY18 into 1Q19. The only

exception was New York.

12

YoY Growth

Atlanta

4Q18 FY18 1Q19

1.6% 7.5% 5.8%

Total U.S.4Q18 FY18 1Q19

2.8% 4.2% 2.3%

Houston

4Q18 FY18 1Q19

-2.9% 2.9% 0.6%

Los Angeles

4Q18 FY18 1Q19

2.4% 2.8% 1.0%

Philadelphia

4Q18 FY18 1Q19

4.6% 4.5% 3.4%

Miami

4Q18 FY18 1Q19

1.8% 4.5% 4.2%

Dallas

4Q18 FY18 1Q19

5.3% 4.9% 4.3%

San Francisco

4Q18 FY18 1Q19

4.8% 5.5% 4.4%

Notable acceleration vs FY18 + >0.5% Notable deceleration vs FY18 - >0.5%

Boston

4Q18 FY18 1Q19

4.4% 4.3% 4.0%

New York

4Q18 FY18 1Q19

3.8% 3.8% 4.2%

Chicago

4Q18 FY18 1Q19

4.7% 3.6% 3.3%

13

– Information and Analytics Solutions

Our capabilities position us to provide more robust analytics than our competitors

3,000 transactions per second,

24/7/365

ACQUIRING MERCHANTS

More Transactions

Data spans the most networks and

product sets

Broadest Coverage

Ability to source data directly, and efficiently,

from our own environment

Seamless Integration

Based on 45 years of

operating excellence

Trusted Expertise

leading share in:

#1BANKS

NETWORKS

6 Million+ 600+

20%+

Business locations Merchant categories

U.S. consumer volume

50%U.S. retail volume

$2.4 TrillionCard volume processed

93 BillionTransactions

Our capabilities position us to provide a robust analytics solution set

PAYMENT & CARD TYPES

13

Methodology

14

› All data is proprietary transaction data from First Data’s systems

› Analysis includes all card-based forms of payment and is based on actual, same-store spending activity

› Analysis focuses on activity during January through March 2019, and compares to other time periods as

appropriate.

› All growth rates reflect a year-over-year basis, unless otherwise noted

› Data is grouped into “Retail” and “Total”

– “Retail” includes Electronic & Appliances, Building Materials, Clothing & Accessories, Furniture/Home

Furnishings, General Merchandise, Sporting Goods, Health and Personal Care Stores, Specialty Retail

– “Total” includes “Retail”, plus all other SpendTrend-tracked industries including Food & Beverage

Stores, Restaurants, Hotel, Leisure, Travel, Aftermarket Vehicle Parts, Gasoline Stations, and Services

› “Casual Dining” includes full service restaurants which serve alcohol. “Family Dining” includes full service

restaurants which do not offer alcohol. “Fast Casual” is a limited-service or self-service restaurant with

made-to-order foods, and which may also serve wine/beer. “QSR” represents traditional fast food

restaurants. “Upscale Dining” includes full-service restaurants which serve alcohol, and are characterized by

certain service standards and comparatively higher average ticket sizes. Data does not include coffee

houses and other sub-categories of Dining.

quarterly spendtrend report: 1q19 - first data...executive summary 1q19 highlights (yoy growth) much...

Documents