Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an

aeronautical firm

Denis L. Balaguer José Eduardo de C. Bezerra

Rodrigo C. da Silva

Embraer

Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):

Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making

16th- 17th October 2008

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm

1. Introduction

The aeronautical industry and the need for a prospective mindset

• The aeronautical industry

– Commercial leadership strongly driven by the continuous innovation;

– But, the products development cycles are complex, long and integrated.

• This leads to high uncertainties and high risks

• Thus, in order to mitigate the risks associated with innovation, is mandatory to deal with futures studies, with a prospective view of the future (Balaguer et al, 2007).

– Probabilistic assessment of possible future worlds, or scenarios - no need to choose a single set of future market assumptions.

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm

1. Introduction

The aeronautical industry and the need for a prospective mindset

• Traditionally scenarios building approach: Delphi.

– Long and in most cases extenuating process.

• Improved approach: Real-Time Delphi – RTD (Gordon and Pease, 2006).

– Resembles the traditional Delphi, but using a web based environment;

– Real-time feedback which drives the consensus in a more streamlined way;

– More active interaction between the exercise managers and the respondents.

• This paper shows a case of RTD use as tool for a scenarios building exercise on an aeronautical firm.

– Conceptual foundations;

– Context of the application and the main pitfalls; and

– Solutions developed.

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm

2. Methodology

The scenarios approach

• Quantitative probabilistic assessment of future scenarios (Marcial and Grumbach, 2005).

– 1. Construct a model of the system to be analyzed

• 1.1. Identification of the variables that describes de system behavior;

• 1.2. Identification of single possible events that quantifies the changes through the variables.

– 2. Conduct expert survey (Delphi)

• 2.1. Quantify the possibility of occurrence of the events;

• 2.2. Quantify the importance of the events to the system.

– 3. Build the scenarios (by combinatory analysis).

– 4. Select a scenarios set for further analysis.

• Scenarios question: future of the aeronautical transportation.

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm

2. Methodology

Real-Time Delphi

• Delphi concerning the model of the system built

• Consult based on a web site running on the firms’ intranet system with a friendly interface.

– The site is programmed using the Cold Fusion language

– Databases using SQL..

• First phase of the Delphi.– Probability of occurrence of the events;

– Importance of the events to the system; and

– Self-evaluation of the experts concerning the theme of the event.

• Second phase of the Delphi.– Cross influence of the occurrence of each event on all others events (cross-impact matrix).

• In both phases: – Graph with the distribution of all the answers;

– Choice to change the vote; and

– Space to make comments about their votes.

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm

2. Methodology

Real-Time Delphi

• Detailed view of the RTD page (phase 1)

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm

2. Methodology

Real-Time Delphi

• Combo-box (phase 1)

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm

2. Methodology

Real-Time Delphi

• Explanation box (phase 1)

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm

2. Methodology

Real-Time Delphi

• Votes distribution chart (phase 1)

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm

2. Methodology

Real-Time Delphi

• Detailed view of the RTD page (phase 2)

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm

2. Methodology

Real-Time Delphi

• Votes distribution chart (phase 2)

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm

3. Results

Participation effectiveness

• The first phase of the Delphi

– Participation effectiveness of 62%

• In the previous scenario exercise with paper forms the participation effectiveness was 46%.

• The second phase of the Delphi

– Participation effectiveness of 43%

• In the previous scenario exercise with paper forms the participation effectiveness was 33%.

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm

3. Results

Convergence and discussions

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm

4. Conclusions

Scenario and Real-Time Delphi

• The experience of using Real-Time Delphi (RTD) in the aeronautical prospective exercise report proved fruitful.

– Importance of the RTD to enable a more streamlined way to achieve the results of a Delphi process.

• Also some others interesting results achieved

– Participation effectiveness;

– Good convergence through a reasonable consensus; and,

– Rich discussion environment that was created at the web page.