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Expert Team on

Operational Ocean Forecast Systems

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emWhat is ET-OOFS? (What is JCOMM?)

Why has it been created? (What is an ET?)

What are its objectives?

How will it achieve those objectives?

GODAE OceanView and ET-OOFS

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Key themes

- coordination, regulation and management

- fully integrated observing, data management and service systems

- responsive to interdisciplinary user needs

- outreach and capacity building

- improved products for MSS, MAES, SI (WMO)

Joint WMO-IOC technical commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology

IOC WMO

JCOMM-MAN

SPA OPA

ETOOFS ETWS

Family tree – not static, preparing for JCOMMIII

Services Programme Area

Maintains the “statement of guidance”

Manages a number of Expert Teams, ET-WS, ET-MSS, ET-MAES, ET-SI

Proposed ET-OOFS to JCOMM-MAN in Dec 2007 to guide pre-operational GODAE OOFS into fully operational ocean services

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Expert teams

Goal:

Improve the quality of services provided by the agencies of member states in their respective theme

Types of Objectives:

Develop guidance for operational agencies to encourage adoption of best practices and standards for services across agencies

Develop and maintain requirements documentation for operational systems

Monitor and evaluate effectiveness of services

Coordinate actions to address identified deficiencies in services

ET-OOFS: Current ToR – under review for JCOMMIII

ET-OFS ToR and Workplan being finalised for JCOMM-III

ET-OOFS Operational monitoring

Develop and maintain the guide for “operational ocean forecast systems” for which JCOMM-MAN/SPA/ET-OOFS will endorse for all member agencies

The guide will include a chapter on operational monitoring

ET-OOFS will review and include metrics into the guide that satisfy:Demonstrated value of the informationEfficient to compute and storeSimple to implement: i.e., Portable software available

ET-OOFS will navigate the guide through the approval process within JCOMM and stakeholders

ET-OOFS is proposing that both TT-OSE and TT-Intercomparisons be endorsed as joint TT’s with two of the proposed tasks:

Recommend new operational metrics satisfying the criterionReview existing operational metrics

SPA - Statement of Guidance

http://www.jcomm.info/ocg3

Observations Programme Area Coordination Group

Sea level anomaly is more critical to OOFS than climate, JCOMM SPA role

OCG-IIIParis, 9-11 March 2009

Critical review for non-climate requirements

Etienne CharpentierObserving Systems Division, WMO Secretariat

The RRR – Rolling Review of Requirements

• WMO/CEOS Database– Requirements (“technology free”)– Performances of instruments

• Critical review– Critical Review Charts– Analysed by Experts to produce gap analysis and

Statement of Guidance (SoG)• SoGs reviewed by ET-EGOS• Feeds into the ET-EGOS Implementation plan,

and vision of the GOS

The RRR process

CREATE AND

UPDATE

CREATE AND

UPDATE

CRITICALREVIEW

GENERATE STATEMENT OF GUIDANCE

for each application area

Statement of Guidance

Observing system

capabilities database

User requirements

database

Global NWP Requirements (example)

    Horizontal Resolution Vertical Resolution Observing Cycle Delay of Availability Accuracy

Requirement Appl. Goal Opt. Thr. Goal Opt. Thr. Goal Opt. Thr. Goal Opt. Thr. Goal Opt. Thr.

Wind vector over sea surface

Glob.NWP

15 km

100 km

250 km

      1h 6h 12h 0.1h 0.5h 6h0.5 m/s

2m/s

3 m/s

Air pressure over sea surface

Glob. NWP

15 km

100 km

500 km

      1h 6h 12h 0.1h 0.5h 6h0.5 hPa

0.99 hPa

1 hPa

SSTGlob. NWP

5km15 km

250 km

      3h 24h120

h3h 24h

120h

0.3K 0.5K 1K

T profile (lower

troposphere)

Glob. NWP

15Km

100 km

500 km

0.3 km

1 km

3 km

1h 6h 24h 0.1h 0.5h 6h 0.5K 1K 3K

T profile (higher

troposphere)

Glob. NWP

15 km

100 km

500 km

0.3 km

1 km

3 km

1h 6h 24h 0.1h 0.5h 6h 0.5K 1K 3K

NWP surface fluxes, model error growth

Observation coverage, Observation error, Automatic QC, Analysis optimisation

Initialisation, Observation timeliness,

Ocean predictability limits

Operational performance – in practice

Optimum performance curve

Improving performance: Competition of resources

First and second generation OOFS systems are to be expected not optimal

How do we argue/diagnose the right GOOS for OOFS?

(a)Resource pressures for continuous system improvements R&D and agency operational super-computing infrastructure

(Higher resolutions, 1-2km, ensembles, 4DVar, coupled physical and coupled BGC modelling)

(b)Resource pressures to design, deploy and maintain ocean observing systems and R&D for new technologies.

The end-user just wants a skilful robust service.

All agencies aspire toward maximum impact.

GOOS/OOFS partnership and a total cost/benefit model is critical to get the right balance for the agencies and governments

Performance target

Observational requirements is an operations research/optimisation problem

Achieving performance at lowest cost

A vision of justifying the OOS requirements – Cost vs Benefit

Per

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Benefit

Per

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Observational requirements

Observational requirements

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Cos

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Benefit

Other competing costs

Per

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Benefit

Per

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Observational requirements

Observational requirements

Cos

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Cos

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Benefit

Co

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Performance

Per

form

ance

Benefit

Per

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Observational requirements

Observational requirements

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Cos

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Benefit

Co

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Performance

SPA/ET-OOFS + GOV + Agencies

SPA/ET-OOFS + Agencies + User groups

OPA+GSSC+Manufacturers+Operators

Who can help with these problems ?

SPA/ET-OOFS + Agencies

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emET-OOFS proposal for GOV and TT-OSE

- Endorse TT-OSE as a joint TT

- Identify deficiencies in OOFS performance and recommend optimisations

- Prepare recommendations for the operational monitoring in “The guide”

- Contribute to the next RRR process for the “Statement of Guidance” for OOFS

- Developing the cost vs benefit case. Feedback on what the TT-OSE could deliver to this process.