realistic assessment of sadc energy demand and supply up ...zambia (zesco) installed capacity:...
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Realistic Assessment of SADC
Energy Demand and Supply
Up to 2015
By Prof M Elmissiry
ENERGY SECTOR
NEPAD , Midrand
South Africa
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PRESENTATION OUTLINES
1-SAPP UTILITIES CURRENT SUPPLY /DEMAND SITUATION
2-PROJECTED DEMAND FOR 2010-2015
3-SAPP PLANNED GENERATION PROJECTS FOR 2010-2015
4-SAPP PLANNED TRANSMISSION PROJECTS FOR 2010-2015
5-COMMENTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
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SADC Demand and Supply ,
as of November 2009
(Source SAPP)
ANGOLA (ENE)
Installed Capacity: 1187MW
Available Capacity: 930MW
Peak Demand: 668MW
Capacity Required: 736MW
(10.2% Reserve)
Surplus of : 194MW
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BOTSWANA (BPC)
Installed Capacity: 132MW
Available Capacity: 90MW
Peak Demand: 503MW
Capacity Required: 554MW
(10.2% Reserve)
Shortfall : 464MW
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DRC (SNEL)
Installed Capacity: 2442MW
Available Capacity: 1170MW
Peak Demand: 1028MW
Capacity Required: 1133MW
(10.2% Reserve)
Surplus of : 37MW
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LESOTHO (LEC)
Installed Capacity: 72MW
Available Capacity: 70MW
Peak Demand: 108MW
Capacity Required: 119MW
(10.2% Reserve)
Shortfall : 49MW
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MALAWI (ESCOM)
Installed Capacity: 287MW
Available Capacity: 267MW
Peak Demand: 260MW
Capacity Required: 287MW
(10.2% Reserve)
Shortfall : 20MW
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MOZAMBIQUE
Installed Capacity: 233MW 2075MW
Available Capacity: 174MW 2075MW
Peak Demand: 416MW
Capacity Required: 458MW
(10.2% Reserve)
Surplus of : 1791MW
EDM (MW) HCBC (MW)
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NAMIBIA (NAMPOWER)
Installed Capacity: 393MW
Available Capacity: 360MW
Peak Demand: 430MW
Capacity Required: 474MW
Shortfall : 114MW
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SOUTH AFRICA (ESKOM)
Installed Capacity: 44170MW
Available Capacity: 40483MW
Peak Demand: 35850MW
Capacity Required: 39507MW
(10.2% Reserve)
Surplus of : 976MW
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SWAZILAND (SEC)
Installed Capacity: 70.6MW
Available Capacity: 70MW
Peak Demand: 200MW
Capacity Required: 220MW
(10.2% Reserve)
Shortfall : 150MW
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TANZANIA (TANESCO)
Installed Capacity: 1008MW
Available Capacity: 680MW
Peak Demand: 700MW
Capacity Required: 771MW
(10.2% Reserve)
Shortfall : 91MW
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ZAMBIA (ZESCO)
Installed Capacity: 1812MW
Available Capacity: 1200MW
Peak Demand: 1604MW
Capacity Required: 1768MW
(10.2% Reserve)
Shortfall : 580MW
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ZIMBABWE (ZESA)
Installed Capacity: 2045MW
Available Capacity: 1080MW
Peak Demand: 1714MW
Capacity Required: 1889MW
Shortfall : 809MW
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General Comments
�Only four countries are in surplus, namely
Angola, DRC, Mozambique and South
Africa.
�The remaining eight countries are in
electricity deficit.
�The total available capacity of the twelve
SAPP utilities is 48649MW, more than the
required capacity of 47916MW by 733MW
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� If only the interconnected SAPP utilities
are considered, the excess is reduced to
650MW.
�There is 7278MW installed but not available
to the SAPP (rehabilitation, de-mothballing,
maintenance.)
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Demand Growth (2010 – 2015)
�Assume Average Growth Rate of 4% for the
12 SAPP Countries. The required capacity
in MW is shown in Table 1 below:
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Required
Capacity 49828 51822 53894 56050 58292 60624
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�The average yearly growth in demand
is about 2000MW.
�If additional yearly generation of 2000MW is
secured, the present surplus is assured.
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SAPP Generation Plan
�Rehabilitation Projects
�Short Terms ProjectsTable 2
(Source SAPP)
No Country REHABILATION AND NEW PROJECTS
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TOTAL
1 Angola 140 260 400
2 Botswana 130 160 600 1200 2 090
3 DRC 162 324 486
4 Lesotho 110 110
5 Malawi 64 100 164
6 Mozambique 700 500 1000 4350 6550
7 Namibia 40 80 400 800 500 1820
8 South Africa 3000 1065 6844 4800 15709
9 Swaziland 140 140
10 Tanzania 160 50 440 650
11 Zambia 15 120 360 750 1 245
12 Zimbabwe 600 3 00 1400 2300
TOTAL 3325 2 447 8438 7150 2004 8300 31664
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Project Capacity
(MW)
Expected
date
Cambamba II (hydro) 260MW 2012
Angola
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Project Capacity
(MW)
Expected
Date
(i) Morupula B Expansion
(Phase 1) (Expansion of
existing coal fired plant)
600MW
(4x150
units)
2013
(ii) Mamabula (New, Coal
Mine & Station)
2400MW 2015
Botswana
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Project Capacity
(MW)
Expected
Date
Muela phase2 110MW 2013
DRC
Project Capacity
(MW)
Expected
Date
(i) Inga 2 Rehab 162MW 2011
324MW 2012
Lesotho
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Malawi
Project Capacity
(MW)
Expected Date
Kaphichira Phase 2
(New hydro)
64MW 2014
Fufu (New hydro
plant)
100MW 2015
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Mozambique
Project Capacity (MW) Expected
Date
Temani GasPh.1 500 – 1000 2011
Mphanda Nkuwa 1500 2015
Moatize (Coal) Ph.I 1000
Ph.II 500
2014
HCB North Bank 850 2015
Benga (Coal) 500 to ramp up
to 2000
2013
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Namibia
Project Capacity
(MW)
Expected
Date
Ruacana (hydro,
extension) 80 2011
Walvis Bay ,Coal 400 2013
Kudu (CCGT) 800 2015
Baynes (hydro,
lower Kunene
river)
500 2015
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South Africa
Project Capacity
(MW)
Expected
Date
Grootvlei
(Rehab)
1200 2010
Komati (Rehab) 965 2011
Arnot (upgrade) 300 2010
Medupi (Coal) 4764 2012
Kusile (Coal) 4800 2013
OCGT 2084 2012
Tibatse 1500 2010
Sere 100 2011
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Swaziland
Project Capacity
(MW)
Expected
Date
Ngwempisi/lower
Magudduza (hydro) 140MW 2014
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Project Capacity
(MW)
Expected
Date
Kinyeredzi (Gas) 2 x 100MW 2011
Ruhudji (hydro) 440MW 2014
Tanzania
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Zambia
Project Capacity
(MW)
Expected
Date
Kariba North
Bank
(extension
hydro)
2 x 180 2012
Itezhi-Tezhi
(hydro)
120 2011
Kafu Gorge
Lower (hydro)
750 2015
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Project Capacity
(MW)
Expected
Date
Kariba South
Extension
(hydro)
2 x 150 2013
Hwange
Expansion (Coal)
2 x 300 2012
Gokwe North 1400 2015
Zimbabwe
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SAPP Transmission plan:
� Connectors for non-connected members
�Transmission projects for congestion relief
and reinforcement
�Transmission projects for evacuation of new
generation from power sources to load
centres
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No Project Name Description Expected
Date
Status
1 ZIZABONA Interconnector,
Phase 1 , 330kV
Zimbabwe , Zambia
Phase 2, Botswana,
Namibia
Transfer Capacity
200MW to 600MW
2010
2011
Awaiting
Financial
closure
2 Mozambique
Backbone
Transmission
Project
400kV AC & 800 kV
HVDC transmission
lines from North to
South
2015 Feasibility
studies
commenced
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No Project Name Description Expected
Date
Status
3 Mozambique
Malawi
220kV
Interconnector
(connect Malawi to
SAPP via
Mozambique)
2012 Most approval
received EDM,
Mozambique
– awaiting
ESCOM,
Malawi.
4 DRC – Zambia 220kV
Interconnector
2010 Construction
Completed on
DRC side.
Tendering
stage on
Zambian side
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No Project Name Description Expected
Date
Status
5 DRC-Zambia 330 Interconnector 2011 On going on
the Zambian
side
6 Zambia,
Tanzania
Kenya
330kV (Joining
SAPP, EAPP)
2013 Work
expected to
start next
year
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Concluding Remarks
� SAPP plan for additional generation capacity
by 2015 (31664MW) exceeds the expected
growth in demand
(12,000MW4% growth)
15,000MW 5% growth
18,000MW 6% growth
� Rehabilitation & Demothballing of plants
alone meets the expected growth for the
coming three years (7278MW installed but
not available)
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� High priority for meeting the demand should
be given to rehabilitation, de-mothballing and
expansion of generation plants (quicker,
cheaper)
� Though on SAPP level, planned additional
capacity meets growth in demand.But on
individual country levels, some countries
still have load shedding for years to
come.
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Main Challenges
� Financial closer in time
� Cost recovery tariff versus investment
� Conclusion of Power Purchase Agreement
PPA,(tariff issues, standardization of PPA
terms)
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� National versus regional interest
� Lack of technical capacity and
packaging of bankable projects
� Project acceleration team for
interconnector
� Compatible & harmonized regulatory
environment
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THANK YOU