Reauthorization of Federal Transportation Programs:

Impact on the States

CSG 2009 Annual ConferenceLa Quinta, California

Janet Oakley, AASHTO

November 12, 2009

Presentation Overview• Provide a status update on today’s “crisis

environment” and the extension of current surface transportation programs

• Offer views on the future of transportation infrastructure, the role of the Federal Government, and the House T & I Committee authorization bill

• Discuss some of the critical issues that will affect the direction of programs and funding

Today’s CrisisCrisis In Transportation Funding

• FY 2008 Highway Trust Fund shortfall = $8 billion transfer of general funds

• FY 2009FY 2009 Highway Trust Fund shortfall = $7 billion transfer of general funds

• FY 2009FY 2009 Contract Authority Rescissions = $8.7 billion + $3.15 billion

• FY 2010FY 2010 Continuing Resolution = FY 2009 levels• FY 2010FY 2010 Program Extension = new contract authority,

extension of HTF + ARRA• FY 2010FY 2010 Highway Trust Fund shortfall = $6 billion• FY 2011FY 2011 = Need for Additional/New Revenue to Sustain

Program for the next six years.

Continuing ResolutionProgram Extension

1st CR extended Highway and Transit Program 31 days – but 33% below current levels

2nd CR extends Highway and Transit Program through December 18 – also at the reduced level

Next extension –3 months, 6 months, 18 months, 2 years??

Funding options – front-load with general funds, index gas tax, increase gas tax, bonds??

Transportation and ARRA

• Delivered on Jobs, jobs, jobs

• Bids – 5% - 40% under estimates

• Periodic Reporting of economic impact of spending

• Maintenance of effort • Equity – geographic,

economic, DBE• Local public agency project

delivery

The Future of Transportation

• We are at a critical crossroads in transportation history

• Available resources are at a low point

• The nation as a whole has been investing only about forty percent of what is necessary to meet needs

• Needs on all fronts are growing

President Obama’s Inaugural Address, January 20, 2009

“The state of the economy calls for action…We will act, not only to create new jobs, but to lay the foundation for new growth. We will build the roads and bridges, that bind us together.”

Reduced Highway and Transit Program Levels

36.3 37.0

41.0

8.3 8.69.9 9.0 9.5 10.3

19.8

42.8 43.1

34.2

10.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

($ b

illio

ns)

Highways Transit

Note: Baseline projection from FY 2010 Budget using CBO Summer 2009 baseline receipts estimates

Decline in Purchasing Power of Motor Fuel Taxes(Based on Inflation since 1993)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Year

Per

cent

age

Funding Options

• Accept an 54% reduction in Federal Aid and reduce each state’s transportation program by amount of cutback.

• Accept 54% reduction in Federal Aid and increase state taxes to make up for Federal cutback.

• Reject Cutback and Tell Congress to Increase Revenues Enough to Sustain the Federal Program at Levels Needed.

In a nutshell• We are in a crisis mode and immediate actions are

required• The Highway Trust Fund – both the Highway and Transit

Accounts – are running out of money• Needs continue to grow while inflation has dramatically

eroded purchasing power• The need for job creation may help change the political

climate for user fees increases

The Big PictureFederal Transportation Program

What needs to be done?

How much funding is needed?

For what?

What is the Federal Role in surface transportation for the future?

How do we best generate the necessary revenue?

What Needs to Be Done and What Will It Cost?

AASHTO Bottom Line Report:Trends

• VMT increase 2.4 trillion miles in 1993 3+ trillion miles in 2007 2.9 trillion miles currently

• Population increase 305 million in 2005 420+ million 2050

• Truck freight expected to increase by 100% by 2030

AASHTO Bottom Line Report:Needs

• Highway Investment Requirements Passenger vehicle demand parallels population growth (1%

per year) Truck freight demand parallels economic growth (2 to 3% per

year) Growth in VMT will at least equal population growth

• Current spending is $78 billion

Growth Rate of VMT Per Year

Cost to Improve Highways

(2006 Dollars)

1.4 percent $166 billion

1.0 percent $132 billion

AASHTO Bottom Line Report:Needs

• Transit Investment Requirements In 2006 Annual Passenger Miles reached 52.15 billion Between 1995 and 2007, ridership increased from 7.8

billion to 10.3 billion trips

• Current spending is $13.3 billionAnnual Growth in Ridership Cost to Improve System

Performance and Condition

(2006 Dollars)

2.4 percent $46 billion

3.5 percent $59 billion

Surface Transportation Critical Issues

• Sea change in views on investments

• Some groups opposed to new highway investment

• General view that the programs are broken and need much greater accountability

• Climate Change & Energy

• Preservation • Congestion • Sustainability• Livability/“Choice”

1919

AASHTO Goals for the Next Authorization

• Program Structure and Process Reform

• Restructure Program to directly address National Objectives

• Accountability for Results

• Multimodal solutions

AASHTO: Program levels needed to restore program purchasing power

2010-2015

• Highways $375 billion• Transit $ 93 billion• Freight* $ 42 billion• Intercity Passenger Rail* $ 35 billion• Total $545 billion

*(Sources outside Highway Trust Fund)

House Surface TransportationAuthorization Act of 2009

20 Areas of Agreement

• Overall Funding• Intercity Passenger Rail

Funding• Increase Transit

Funding • Increase Safety

Funding• Refocus, consolidate &

Streamline Highway Programs

• Freight Corridor Coalitions

• Projects of National Significance

• Establish National Objectives & Collaboratively Determine Performance Measures

• States and MPOs set GHG Reduction Targets

STAA Reform Focus

• New Program Eligibility and Performance Requirements +

• New Distribution Formulas and Criteria?? (Maybe) +

• New Plans, Models, Methodologies +

• Performance Targets, Monitoring, Measuring, Reporting

=

New and Expanded Data

Collection, Monitoring, Analyses, Reporting

STAA of 2009

Formula• Critical Asset Investment

Program• Highway Safety

Improvement Program• Surface Transportation

Program• CMAQ• Freight Improvement

Program

Discretionary• Metropolitan Mobility• Projects of National

Significance

STAA of 2009

• Specific authorizations are not included in the bill nor are the apportionment formulas

• While the top line numbers are in the bill there is no specific breakdown by category and no formulas or runs that would show state shares or return on contributions

• There is no revenue title to be bill yet

STAA of 2009: Funding$500 Billion

$337.4 billion for Highways $100 billion for Capital

Asset Improvement (NHS, IM, Bridge)

$50 billion for Metropolitan Mobility and Access (MMA)

$25 billion for Projects of National Significance

$162.4 billion for other FHWA-administered programs (e.g. Highway Safety Improvement, Surface Transportation, CMAQ, Freight, etc)

$99.8 billion transit $87.6 billion from HTF HTF share was 15.2% in

SAFETEA-LU; it is increased to 19.5% in STAA

$12.2 billion from GF

$50 billion high speed rail corridors

$12.6 billion Motor Carrier Safety

$50 billion High Speed Rail

FUNDINGCategory

SAFETEA-LU

(6 Years)STAA (6 Years) Increase

Safety $6.2 billion $12.6 billion 100%

Metro Mobility (Mode Neutral) n/a $50 billion n/a

Transit $52.7 billion $99.8 billion 89%

If MM @ 50% for Transit n/a $124.8 billion 137%

Highways (Assumes 100% of PNS fund highways)

$227.5 billion

$287.4 billion 26%

If MM @ 50% for Highways n/a $312.5 billion 37%

If MM @ 100% for Highways n/a $337.5 billion 48%

TOTAL$286.4 billion

$450 billion 57%

STAA of 2009IssuesIssues

• Proportionate Funding Increasesin Highway and Transit

• Address Capacity in Addition to Preservation• Distribution of funds to

Rural and Urban Areas• Increased Revenues• Performance – Objectives, Measures and

Targets

STAA of 2009IssuesIssues

• Shifts Decision making from States to MPOs• Shifts the Program from a federally-funded,

state-administered program to a federally-funded and administered program

• Creates New Planning Requirements• Creates New Climate Change Planning

Requirements• Requires the Planning and Programming

Process to become Performance-Based and Outcome-Driven

How do we best generate the necessary revenue?

Where to get the revenue needed?Current revenue would not even support the Current revenue would not even support the

SAFETEA-LU program levelSAFETEA-LU program levelTo support a $450 billion ProgramTo support a $450 billion Program

• $250 billion from current revenue sources• At least another $140 billion needed in new revenues • Options

Increase fuel taxes Consider an oil per barrel tax (opposed by such groups as the U.S.

Chamber) Bond for the interim period to enhance revenue or use some other

borrowing method Freight Fees Tolls & Public Private Partnerships Front Loading Option

Current State of Play

• House Extension (HR 3617) Duration: 3 months (to 31

December 2009) Maintains FY 2009 pre-

rescission spending level - $13.144 billion; $10.735 billion for FHWA

No repeal of $8.708 billion rescission of contract authority

Passed House

• Senate Extension Duration: 6 months (to 30

April 2010) Maintains FY 2009 pre-

rescission spending level Restores $8.708 billion in

contract authority “Hot lining” for unanimous

consent failed

Current State of Play

Now Operating under a 2nd Continuing Resolution (HR 2996)

Duration: 1 ½ months (to 18 December 2009)Provides FY 2009 POST-rescission spending

level – 33 percent below current levels or $1.02 billion per month and $2.6 billion to date

No restoration of rescinded $8.708 billion contract authority

Current State of Play: Administration

From Down Payment on Reform to Jobs Bill Duration: From 18 months to 2 years, 3 years From $20 billion General Fund transfer to Front

Loaded General Funds ($80 billion??) Policy Quid Pro Quos

Down Payment on Reform Sustainability/Livability Fund Contract Authority/Firewalls !!!

Current State of Play

• There is great uncertainty right now

• It is important to pass the six-year authorization bill soon, as state DOTs and contractors depend on long-term investment time horizons

• Any action should not reverse the progress made through the stimulus legislation

Political Roadblocks Ahead?

• No New Taxes• “NAAH” = Never Again Another New Highway• Proportionately less funding for highways• Program shift from rural areas and states to

metropolitan areas and urban states• Management shift from a federally-funded, state-

administered program to a federally-funded and administered program

• Need for a practical and workable approach to reform and accountability

The future of Surface TransportationQuestions?

Janet Oakley

joakley@aashto.org

202-624-3698