recent returns in emerging markets stocks, will they continue? november 2007 rajiv jain portfolio...

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Recent Returns in Emerging Markets Stocks, Will They Continue? November 2007 Rajiv Jain Portfolio Manager

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  • Slide 1
  • Recent Returns in Emerging Markets Stocks, Will They Continue? November 2007 Rajiv Jain Portfolio Manager
  • Slide 2
  • Slide 2 Table of Contents Section I: Emerging Market Performance3-8 Section II: Expected Future Returns9-22 Section III: Stock Selection23-38
  • Slide 3
  • Emerging Market Performance Section I:
  • Slide 4
  • Slide 4 Emerging Market Performance Has Been Phenomenal the Past Several Years
  • Slide 5
  • Slide 5 Led By Increased Profitability
  • Slide 6
  • Slide 6 Increased Earnings
  • Slide 7
  • Slide 7 And Increased Valuation Multiples
  • Slide 8
  • Slide 8 But Can it Continue?
  • Slide 9
  • Expected Future Returns Section II:
  • Slide 10
  • Slide 10 Fundamental Approach to Forecasting Future Returns From Stock Investments Methodology: -Assume Normalized Valuation Multiples -Assume Normalized Dividend Yield -Estimate Long Term Future Earnings Growth Expected Future Return From Investment
  • Slide 11
  • Slide 11 Dont Expect Outsized Returns Over the Next Five Years Results: Note: China excludes A shares
  • Slide 12
  • Slide 12 We Assume Dividends Increase to Average Historic Levels
  • Slide 13
  • Slide 13 US
  • Slide 14
  • Slide 14 Europe
  • Slide 15
  • Slide 15 India
  • Slide 16
  • Slide 16 Korea
  • Slide 17
  • Slide 17 Singapore
  • Slide 18
  • Slide 18 Hong Kong
  • Slide 19
  • Slide 19 Australia
  • Slide 20
  • Slide 20 China
  • Slide 21
  • Slide 21 Mexico
  • Slide 22
  • Slide 22 Brazil
  • Slide 23
  • Stock Selection Section III:
  • Slide 24
  • Slide 24 Beat the Expected Country Average Returns through Stock Picking Despite Expecting Lower Returns Over the Next Five Years, We Continue to See Many Stock Specific Opportunities in Emerging Markets
  • Slide 25
  • Slide 25 Established in 1977 as a housing finance company regulated by the National Housing Bank, a subsidiary of the Reserve Bank of India Dominant player in the Indian mortgage finance market with a market share of 30% in 2006 Provides housing finance in India to low and middle income individuals as well as to corporations Mortgage growth due to rising income levels, stronger household balance and a housing shortage Diversified in different financial services via subsidiaries or joint ventures Citigroup has a 12.3% stake in the company Strong brand and superior management team EPS 10 year compound annual growth rate 20.9% Book value per share 10 year compound annual growth rate 12.5% Market capitalization INR 443bn (USD 10.8bn) Estimated 3/2008 P/E Ratio 24.7 Housing Development Finance Corp. Ltd.
  • Slide 26
  • Slide 26 Housing Development Finance Corp. Ltd. Source: Factset
  • Slide 27
  • Slide 27 Leader in the production and marketing of beer in Mexico Strong brands such as Corona, Modelo Especial, Pacifico and Negro Modelo Has 57% of the Mexican beer market share Exports five brands to 150 countries, with Corona the No. 1 non-European bottled imported beer to the U.S. Total brands volume 5 year CAGR 9.6% Exclusive Mexican importer and distributor of Anheuser-Busch beers (Anheuser-Busch is a major shareholder of Grupo Modelo) 8 th biggest brewer in the world Operates chain of convenience stores in Mexico, plans to double number to 2,000 over next 12 months Benefits of continuous cost-cutting initiatives lead on improving margins EPS 10 year compound annual growth rate 23.3% Market capitalization MXN 187bn (USD 17.1bn) Estimated 12/2007 P/E Ratio 16.7 Grupo Modelo S.A.
  • Slide 28
  • Slide 28 Value creation by investing capital at rates of return that exceed their cost of capital, value according to VAMUS calculation Grupo Modelo S.A. Source: Factset
  • Slide 29
  • Slide 29 Leading wireless service provider in Latin America with over 40% market share Spun off from Mexican telecommunications giant Telmex in 2001 Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim controls 66% of America Movil Provided services to over 108m wireless subscribers in Latin America as of Dec 2006, primarily in Mexico and Brazil Its Mexican subsidiary, Telcel is the largest mobile operator in Mexico Largest pre-pay wireless provider in the US with 30m subscribers Signed in 2005 a international pact with Vodafone to jointly deliver various international services Generates healthy amount of free cash flow High operating margins of almost 20% EPS 7 year compound annual growth rate 42.8% Market capitalization MXN 1,172bn (USD 107bn), Est. 12/07 P/E Ratio 19.4 America Movil SAB
  • Slide 30
  • Slide 30 Value creation by investing capital at rates of return that exceed their cost of capital, value according to VAMUS calculation America Movil SAB Source: Factset
  • Slide 31
  • Slide 31 CVRD is the largest global producer and exporter of iron ore and pellets with a marketshare of approx. 33% The company has become one of the worlds largest producer of nickel, with a production of 234,900 tons. CVRD is a natural resource powerhouse with vast reserves of iron ore, nickel, bauxite, copper/gold kaolin, coal, manganese, and potash. The company has offices and operations in all five continents The growth strategy is focused on shareholder value creation. The company believes that organic growth is the main driver of value creation, and therefore it has an exciting pipeline of projects to be developed in the next years Revenues 1Q07 US-$ 7.7 bn: thereof 27,2% in Asia ex-China, 16,1% in China High operating margins: in 1Q07, the adjusted EBIT margin was 49.2% Total shareholder return (TSR) - capital gains plus dividends 42.7% p.a. between 2001 and 2006. EPS 10 year compound annual growth rate 38.1% Market capitalization USD 113 bn, Est. 12/07 P/E Ratio 8.2 Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD)
  • Slide 32
  • Slide 32 Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD)
  • Slide 33
  • Slide 33 Holding company for mining, tobacco, financial and industrial interests of the former Rembrandt Group Main investments in: Tobacco (10% of BAT), Banking and financial services (RMB Holdings 23.1%, First Rand 9%), Industrial (Air Products SA 50%), Mining (Trans Hex Group 34%), Healthcare (Mediclinic 50%) Current contribution to Remgros NAV: Financial 19%, Industrial 20%, Trademarks (tobacco) 48%, Mining 5%, Cash & Liabilities 8% Activities concentrated mainly on the management of investments and the provision of support Strong dividend payment track record (5 year dividend growth 36.3%) History of share buy-backs EPS 6 year compound annual growth rate 26.4% Market capitalization ZAR 87bn (USD 12bn) Estimated 3/2008 P/E Ratio 15.6 Remgro Limited
  • Slide 34
  • Slide 34 Remgro Limited Source: Factset
  • Slide 35
  • Slide 35 Provides a variety of domestic telecommunications services, like local fixed- line mobile and data services in Indonesia Majority is held by Indonesian government (51.2%) Has a 65% stake in Telkomsel, Indonesias largest cellular operator with a 56.8% subscriber market share and 68.4% of net subscriber additions p.q. Telkomsel has 67.8% revenue market share Network coverage and large subscriber base are key competitive advantages for Telkomsel Strong mobile growth in Indonesia with 3 m net subscriber additions p.q. and low penetration at around 20% Enjoys growth profile superior to that of most of its emerging Asia peers EPS 10 year compound annual growth rate 23.2% Market capitalization IDR 195,552bn (USD 22bn) Estimated 12/2007 P/E Ratio 14.0 PT Telekomunikasi - Indonesia
  • Slide 36
  • Slide 36 PT Telekomunikasi - Indonesia Value creation by investing capital at rates of return that exceed their cost of capital, value according to VAMUS calculation Source: Factset
  • Slide 37
  • Slide 37 Principal activities are to provide banking and other financial services Operates through 3 segments: Retail banking, Wholesale banking and Treasury services. Incorporated in 1994 and headquartered in Mumbai Track record in India as well as in international markets Healthy growth to remain the market leader in mortgages Wide network of over 535 branches and 1,323 ATMS across 228 cities in India One of the best-run banks in Asia (named as Best Bank in India in 2006 by Euromoney magazine) Ventured successfully into other businesses like Life and Non-life insurance Maintains one of the best asset quality with high ROE EPS 8 year compound annual growth rate 31.5% Book value per share 8 year compound annual growth rate 36.3% Market capitalization INR 345bn (USD 8.4bn), Est. 03/2008 P/E Ratio 22.6 HDFC Bank Ltd.
  • Slide 38
  • Slide 38 HDFC Bank Ltd. Source: Factset