recent trends in abundance of puget sound salmon...salmon abundance-hatchery vs. natural fall/summer...
TRANSCRIPT
Recent Trends in Abundance of
Puget Sound Salmon
James Losee, Aaron Dufault, Gary Marston,
Jeff Haymes, Brett Barkdull
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
Puget Sound-Background
• All five species of pacific
salmon
• 13 indian tribes
• Puget Sound Anglers
• 1 ESA listed species
Chinook
Coho
Chum
Sockeye
Pink
Olympia
Seattle
Neah Bay
Vancouver
Island
Westport
Bellingham
Threatened
Puget Sound-Background
• All five species of pacific
salmon
• 13 indian tribes
• Puget Sound Anglers
• 1 ESA listed species
Chinook
Coho
Chum
Sockeye
Pink
Olympia
Seattle
Neah Bay
Vancouver
Island
Westport
Bellingham • Nooksack
• Lummi
Upper Skagit •
Sauk-Suiattle •
Stillaguamish •
Tulalip •
• Suquamish
Swinomish •
• Jamestown
S’Klallam
• Skokomish
Lower Elwha •
• Makah
Nisqually •
• Squaxin Island
Puyallup •
Muckleshoot•
Threatened
Port Gamble S’klallam •
South Puget Sound Salmon
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
# o
f fi
sh (
Ter
min
al
Ru
nsi
ze)
Chinook Salmon
Coho
Chum
Pink
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
196
8
197
0
197
2
197
4
197
6
197
8
198
0
198
2
198
4
198
6
198
8
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
201
0
201
2
201
4
Pink
# o
f fi
sh
Study Objectives
• Compare trends in abundance across all five species of Pacific Salmon – How has species composition of Puget Sound Salmon changed?
– Are patterns of abundance consistent across hatchery vs. naturally produce fish, life history type, region?
• Compare trends in survival across species – Are patterns of survival consistent across hatchery vs. naturally
produce fish, life history type, region?
– Do patterns of survival relate to ocean climate/pink abundance?
For most recreational fisheries, we use catch record card estimates from previous years Also use creel surveys where available For release Chinook areas and mark-selective fisheries, include catch and release mortality Fisheries Regulation Assessment Model (FRAM)
Study Objectives
• Compare trends in abundance across all five species of Pacific Salmon – How has species composition of Puget Sound Salmon changed?
– Are patterns of abundance consistent across hatchery vs. naturally produce fish, life history type, region?
• Compare trends in survival across species – Are patterns of survival consistent across hatchery vs. naturally
produce fish, life history type, region?
– Do patterns of survival relate to ocean climate/pink abundance?
For most recreational fisheries, we use catch record card estimates from previous years Also use creel surveys where available For release Chinook areas and mark-selective fisheries, include catch and release mortality Fisheries Regulation Assessment Model (FRAM)
• Show historical pink harvest.
• Take off non-puget sound
• Then show escapement added on top
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
# o
f P
ink S
alm
on
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
Pink Harvest in Puget Sound
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
# o
f P
ink S
alm
on
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
Pink Harvest in Puget Sound
Puget Sound stocks harvested
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
# o
f P
ink S
alm
on
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
Pink Harvest in Puget Sound
Puget Sound stocks harvested
Puget Sound Pink Abundance
Methods-Pink Salmon Abundance
1974-boldt
1977-puget sound salmon management plan
1999-Puget sound Chinook ESA listing_threatened
1999-Hood Canal Summer Chum-threatened
2000-PNW Hatchery reform Project and HSRG
Regime shifts
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
Nu
mb
er o
f A
du
lt S
alm
on
Pink
Sockeye
Chum
Coho
Chinook Salmon
Add management timeline info. i.e. hatchery reform,
ESA, discontinue harvest of spring chinook. Esa
listings etc.
Salmon Abundance 1970-2014
Salmon Abundance-Hatchery vs. Natural
Fall/Summer Chinook
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pu
get
So
un
d R
etu
rns
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Hatchery
Natural
Fall/Summer Chinook
Puget
Sound R
eturn
s
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Coho
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
Fall Chum
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
Summer Chum
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Puget
Sound R
eturn
s
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Winter Chum
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Pink (odd-year)
Year
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
Sockeye
Year
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ter
min
al A
dult
Ret
urn
s
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Spring Chinook
Fall/Summer ChinookP
uget
Sound R
eturn
s
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Coho
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
Fall Chum
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
Summer Chum
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Puget
Sound R
eturn
s
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Winter Chum
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Pink (odd-year)
Year
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
Sockeye
Year
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ter
min
al A
dult
Ret
urn
s
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Spring Chinook
Salmon Abundance-Hatchery vs. Natural
Fall/Summer Chinook
Puget
Sound R
eturn
s
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Coho
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
Fall Chum
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
Summer Chum
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Puget
Sound R
eturn
s
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Winter Chum
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Pink (odd-year)
Year
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
Sockeye
Year
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ter
min
al A
dult
Ret
urn
s
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Spring ChinookLook at PDO Fall/Summer Chinook
Puget
Sound R
eturn
s
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Coho
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
Fall Chum
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
Summer Chum
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Puget
Sound R
eturn
s
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Winter Chum
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Pink (odd-year)
Year
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
Sockeye
Year
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ter
min
al A
dult
Ret
urn
s
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Spring Chinook
Salmon Abundance-Trends
Short Term (% change)
25 50 75 100 125 150 175
Lo
ng
Ter
m (
% c
han
ge)
25
50
75
100
125
150
175Long term decline
Recent increase
Long term increase
Recent increase
Long term increase
Recent decline
Long term decline
Recent decline
Fall Chinook Natural
Fall Chum Natural
Summer Chum Natural
Winter Chum Natural
Pink Natural
Coho Natural
Short Term (% change)
25 50 75 100 125 150 175
Lon
g T
erm
(%
ch
ang
e)
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
Pink Salmon
Salmon Abundance-Trends
Long term decline
Recent increase
Long term increase
Recent increase
Long term increase
Recent decline
Long term decline
Recent decline
Fall Chinook Natural
Fall Chum Natural
Summer Chum Natural
Winter Chum Natural
Pink Natural
Coho Natural
Short Term (% change)
25 50 75 100 125 150 175
Lon
g T
erm
(%
ch
ang
e)
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
Fall/Summer Chinook Natural
Fall Chum Natural
Summer Chum Natural
Winter Chum Natural
Pink Natural
Coho Natural
Fall Chinook Natural
Fall Chum Natural
Summer Chum Natural
Winter Chum Natural
Pink Natural
Coho Natural
Long term decline
Recent increase
Long term increase
Recent increase
Long term increase
Recent decline
Long term decline
Recent decline
Salmon Abundance-Trends
Short Term (% change)
25 50 75 100 125 150 175
Lo
ng
Ter
m (
% c
han
ge)
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
Fall Chinook Hatchery
Fall Chinook Natural
Spring Chinook aggregate
Fall Chum Hatchery
Fall Chum Natural
Summer Chum Natural
Winter Chum Natural
Pink Natural
Sockeye aggregate
Coho Hatchery
Coho Natural
Short Term (% change)
25 50 75 100 125 150 175
Lon
g T
erm
(%
ch
ang
e)
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
Fall Chinook Hatchery
Fall Chinook Natural
Spring Chinook aggregate
Fall Chum Hatchery
Fall Chum Natural
Summer Chum Natural
Winter Chum Natural
Pink Natural
Sockeye aggregate
Coho Hatchery
Coho Natural
Long term decline
Recent increase
Long term increase
Recent increase
Long term increase
Recent decline
Long term decline
Recent decline
Salmon Abundance-Trends
2005-2014
S. Juan
de Fuca
Nor
th S
ound
Cen
tral
Sou
nd
South
Sou
nd
Hoo
d Can
al
Pro
port
ion
1970-1979
S. Juan
de Fuca
Nor
th S
ound
Cen
tral
Sou
nd
South
Sou
nd
Hoo
d Can
al0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Chinook
Fall Chinook
Coho
Fall Chum
Winter Chum
Sockeye
Pink
2005-2014
S. Juan
de Fuca
Nor
th S
ound
Cen
tral
Sou
nd
South
Sou
nd
Hoo
d Can
al
Pro
po
rtio
n
1970-1979
S. Juan
de Fuca
Nor
th S
ound
Cen
tral
Sou
nd
South
Sou
nd
Hoo
d Can
al0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Chinook
Fall Chinook
Coho
Fall Chum
Winter Chum
Sockeye
Pink
Salmon Abundance-Regional
2005-2014
S. Juan
de Fuca
Nor
th S
ound
Cen
tral
Sou
nd
South
Sou
nd
Hoo
d Can
al
Pro
port
ion
1970-1979
S. Juan
de Fuca
Nor
th S
ound
Cen
tral
Sou
nd
South
Sou
nd
Hoo
d Can
al0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Chinook
Fall Chinook
Coho
Fall Chum
Winter Chum
Sockeye
Pink
Salmon Abundance-Regional
2005-2014
S. Juan
de Fuca
Nor
th S
ound
Cen
tral
Sou
nd
South
Sou
nd
Hoo
d Can
al
Pro
port
ion
1970-1979
S. Juan
de Fuca
Nor
th S
ound
Cen
tral
Sou
nd
South
Sou
nd
Hoo
d Can
al0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Chinook
Fall Chinook
Coho
Fall Chum
Winter Chum
Sockeye
Pink
Salmon Abundance-Regional
Study Objectives
• Compare trends in abundance across all five species of Pacific Salmon – How has species composition of Puget Sound Salmon changed?
– Are patterns of abundance consistent across hatchery vs. naturally produce fish, life history type, region?
• Compare trends in survival across species – Are patterns of survival consistent across hatchery vs. naturally
produce fish, life history type, region?
– Do patterns of survival relate to ocean climate/pink abundance?
For most recreational fisheries, we use catch record card estimates from previous years Also use creel surveys where available For release Chinook areas and mark-selective fisheries, include catch and release mortality Fisheries Regulation Assessment Model (FRAM)
Salmon Survival and Climate
Hatchery
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Su
rviv
al I
nd
ex
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
Chinook Salmon
Coho
Chum
Pink
Sockeye
PDO May-Dec
Ocean Entry Year
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
PD
O (
May
-Dec
.)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Natural
Su
rviv
al I
nd
ex
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Chinook Salmon
Coho
Chum
Pink
Salmon Survival and Climate
Short Term (%Change)
40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Lo
ng
Ter
m (
% C
han
ge)
40
60
80
100
120
140
Chinook Hatchery
Coho Hatchery
Chum Hatchery
Pink Hatchery
Sockeye Aggregate
Chinook Natural
Coho Natural
Fall Chum Natural
Winter Chum Natural
Pink Natural
Salmon Survival Hatchery vs. Wild
Long term decline
Recent increase
Long term increase
Recent increase
Long term increase
Recent decline
Long term decline
Recent decline
Pink Effect? Chum
Even Odd
0
1
2
3
4
5Chinook Salmon
Even Odd
Su
rviv
al
Rec
ruit
/Sp
aw
ner
Coho
Even OddChum
Even Odd
0
1
2
3
4
5Chinook Salmon
Even Odd
Su
rviv
al
Rec
ruit
/Sp
aw
ner
Coho
Even Odd
* *
Pink Effect? S
urv
iva
l R
ecru
it/S
pa
wn
er
Conclusion
o Decrease in abundance and survival of natural “smolt” life
history types particularly in South and Central Sound.
o Hatchery origin survival covaries with ocean climate.
o Pink effect- Freshwater nutrient subsidy or marine buffer?
Acknowledgements
o Jessica Miller and WDFW Fish Program-Joe Anderson,
Andrew Claiborne, Angelika Hagen-Braux, Jon Carey, Kirt
Hughes, Neala Kendall, Ryan Lothrop, Mara Zimmerman