Thank you!

Reconciling Conservation of Tropical Forests and Food

Production: Challenges and Opportunities

Third Annual International Food Security SymposiumTuesday, April 4th, 2017

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Paulo Brandopbrando@whrc.org

The world’s largest agriculture frontier

Agriculture and forests

• Can the expansion of cropping systems influence deforestation rates?

• What’s the role of agriculture expansion in altering forest disturbance regimes?

Cattle ranching

60-70% of deforested areas

Mechanized agriculture

12% direct deforestation

Why deforestation decreased?

Nepstad et al. 2014

Agriculture will lower deforestation if it…

• Decreases demand for new deforestation.

• Increases risks to those engaged in deforestation.

• Reduces the supply of undesignated claimed forestland – target of land speculators.

Production x Deforestation

Mato Grosso

Macedo et a. (2012)

Sparing land or buying out time?

Displacing deforestation?

650

700

750

800

850

2004 2008 2012 2016

Year

Cu

mu

lative

lo

ss (

tho

usa

nd k

m2)

BiomeAmazonCerrado

Agriculture x disturbance regimes

• Climate (precipitation and warming)

• Fragmentation (edges)

• Fire (ignition)

Environ. Res. Lett. 3 (2008) 044006 R B Jackson et al

A B

C D

Figure 1. Examples of various biophysical factors in a grassland or cropland (A) and forest (B). Because of a grassland or cropland’s higherreflectivity (albedo), it typically reflects more sunlight than the forest does, cooling surface air temperatures relatively more. In contrast, theforest often evaporates more water and transmits more heat to the atmosphere (latent and sensible heat, respectively), cooling it locallycompared to the grassland or unirrigated cropland. More water vapor in the atmosphere can lead to a greater number and height of clouds aswell as to increased convective rainfall. In addition, the forest has a more uneven canopy (surface roughness) that increases mixing andupwelling of air. ((C) and (D)) Comparison of shortwave albedo and surface skin temperature for 215 grassland and forest stands acrossArgentina and Uruguay. The satellite data were assessed using 180 km × 180 km Landsat images (2000–2005) on seven dates for theCorrientes and Concordia regions of Argentina and three dates for the Rivera region of Uruguay. The Landsat scenes were geometrically andatmospherically corrected and correspond to images 226/80 (path and row) for Corrientes, 225/82 for Concordia, and 223/82 for Rivera. Ingeneral, measurements at sites within a region compared adjacent grassland, pine, and eucalypt stands.

albedo, but they are fire-prone [24] and often use more

water than native vegetation [19]. Because forestry projects

can appropriate scarce water resources, they may be poor

choices in semi-arid regions [19, 25]. Applying fertilizers in

forest sequestration projects helps trees grow more quickly

but also increases the emissions of nitrous oxide, a potent

greenhouse gas [26]. Finally and perhaps most importantly,

forests provide a wide range of important services, including

preserving biodiversity, wildlife habitat, and freshwater supply.

Policies focused solely on managing vegetation to cool local

or global temperatures may jeopardize other key ecosystem

services.

In the coming decades, policies for forest carbon

sequestration and offset activities will create a multi-billion-

dollar industry. The biophysical consequences of forest

cover change and other co-effects of these activities can

be large at regional scales [27, 28] and may sometimes

reduce or even cancel the benefits of carbon sequestration.

Biophysical interactions should therefore be factored into

climate mitigation strategy in at least two ways—in designing

carbon sequestration projects to achieve the greatest climate

benefit and in comparing the costs and benefits of terrestrial

carbon sequestration with those of other mitigation activities.

Successful policy should account for the different ways that

3

Costa et al. 2007

Amazon edges

- Demand to comply with the Forest Code and restore large tracts of deforested areas

- Between 2004 and 2008, IPAM-WHRC provided science-based guidance to Amaggi in this process.

12-16% of Amazonforests near an edge

Brando et al. 2014

Trumbore et al. 2015

Tanguro

Testing the limits of Amazon forests

Brando et al. 2013

Brando et al. 2014 PNAS21

Fire-induced tree mortality

3ºC Warmer

20% DrierControl

Burned Annually

Burned 3yrs

Tanguro

Since 2004 IPAM/WHRC have studied the impacts of drought-fires on forest dynamics stability

Cropping and fire ignition

NYT

Cropping and fire ignition

Discussion points

• Can agriculture intensification lead to land sparing in tropical regions?

• Are the climatic changes caused by agriculture intensification/expansion large enough to accentuate a large-scale forest dieback?

• Multiple disturbances can lead to rapid forest degradation, but it is still unclear how much of the region is exposed to such disturbances.