redesigning our seas and coasts? a tale of adaptive management
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Redesigning our seas and coasts? A tale of adaptive management. Prof Laurence Mee Scottish Association for Marine Science. Dedicated to Slartibartfast, designer of coasts (especially fjords). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Redesigning our seas and Redesigning our seas and coasts?coasts?
A tale of adaptive managementA tale of adaptive management
Prof Laurence MeeScottish Association for Marine Science
Dedicated to Slartibartfast, designer Dedicated to Slartibartfast, designer of coasts (especially fjords)of coasts (especially fjords)
Slartibartfast: "Perhaps I'm old and tired, but I think that the chances of finding out what's actually going on are so absurdly remote that the only thing to do is to say, 'Hang the sense of it,' and keep yourself busy. I'd much rather be happy than right any day."
Arthur: "And are you?"
Slartibartfast: "Ah, no. (laughs) Well, that's where it all falls down, of course."
From Douglas Adams, A Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy
1. Changing perceptions of seas and coasts
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North Sea Catch, Cod
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Th
ou
san
ds
of
ton
s
Shifting baselines
North Sea Catch, Cod
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Th
ou
san
ds
of
ton
s
Shifting baselines A good
year!
North Sea Catch, Cod
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Th
ou
san
ds
of
ton
s
Shifting baselines
A bad year!
North Sea Catch, Cod
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Th
ou
san
ds
of
ton
s
Shifting baselines A good
year?
2. Complexity
Competing demands for marine space
Non-fishing use Fishing vessel tracks, 2002
Liv erpool Bay has numerous activ ities operating within this small areaof the Irish Sea. Not only is it protected f or its conserv ation f eaturesand hosts protected wreck sites, it also supports a wealth of marineindustries utilising a small sea space. The inset map shows legallypermitted windf arm dev elopments, shipping, dredging and dredged-material disposal sites, oil and gas dev elopments, pipelines and cables and aggregate extraction, with f urther legislativ e controlson activ ities by the MOD, recreational by elaws, port and harbour by elaws and sea f isheries protection measures.
Legally Permitted Activities within the Irish Sea
Fishery Protected Areas
EU Fishery Protected Areas
Bass Nursery Areas
By elaws
Fishery Order(Ministerial & Regulating)
Conserv ation DesignationsSACs
SPAs
MNRs
AoSPs (IOM)
SSSI/ASSIs
Ministry of Def enceMOD Controlled Areas
MOD Danger Areas
Submarine Exercise Areas
Windf arm Dev elopmentsRound 1 & Round 2 Sites
Windf arm Exclusion Zones
DTI Renewable Exclusion Zone (unlegislated)
RecreationPleasure Boat Exclusion Zone
Pleasure Boat Speed Restrictions
Archaeology
Protected Wrecks
Oil & Gas
Hy drocarbon Field
Areas under Licence
Surf ace Installations
Wells
Ports & HarboursHarbour Jurisdictions
Dredging
Disposal Sites
Dredged Sites (Capital & Maintenance)
Shipping Measures
Traf f ic Separation Schemes
Areas to be Av oided
High Speed Craf t
Laden Tanker Instructions
Major Shipping Routes (unlegislated)
Aggregate Extraction
Licensed Extraction Areas
Activ e Extraction Areas
Applications
Submarine Cables & Pipelines
Cables
Oil & Gas Pipeline
The crowded Irish Sea?
Liv erpool Bay has numerous activ ities operating within this small areaof the Irish Sea. Not only is it protected f or its conserv ation f eaturesand hosts protected wreck sites, it also supports a wealth of marineindustries utilising a small sea space. The inset map shows legallypermitted windf arm dev elopments, shipping, dredging and dredged-material disposal sites, oil and gas dev elopments, pipelines and cables and aggregate extraction, with f urther legislativ e controlson activ ities by the MOD, recreational by elaws, port and harbour by elaws and sea f isheries protection measures.
Legally Permitted Activities within the Irish Sea
Fishery Protected Areas
EU Fishery Protected Areas
Bass Nursery Areas
By elaws
Fishery Order(Ministerial & Regulating)
Conserv ation DesignationsSACs
SPAs
MNRs
AoSPs (IOM)
SSSI/ASSIs
Ministry of Def enceMOD Controlled Areas
MOD Danger Areas
Submarine Exercise Areas
Windf arm Dev elopmentsRound 1 & Round 2 Sites
Windf arm Exclusion Zones
DTI Renewable Exclusion Zone (unlegislated)
RecreationPleasure Boat Exclusion Zone
Pleasure Boat Speed Restrictions
Archaeology
Protected Wrecks
Oil & Gas
Hy drocarbon Field
Areas under Licence
Surf ace Installations
Wells
Ports & HarboursHarbour Jurisdictions
Dredging
Disposal Sites
Dredged Sites (Capital & Maintenance)
Shipping Measures
Traf f ic Separation Schemes
Areas to be Av oided
High Speed Craf t
Laden Tanker Instructions
Major Shipping Routes (unlegislated)
Aggregate Extraction
Licensed Extraction Areas
Activ e Extraction Areas
Applications
Submarine Cables & Pipelines
Cables
Oil & Gas Pipeline
From the Irish Sea Pilot study, 2005.
The UK’s Growing Marine Footprint
In 1858, so much sewage poured into the River Thames in London that MPs could not work in the Houses of Parliament because of the smell.
Key Social Developments
EutrophicationChemical PollutionHabitat lossOverfishing
Rivers Estuaries Coastal Shelf Deep Sea
1950 - 1975 Sewage treatment, Nuclear power,
Green revolution, Environment Ministries
1975 - 2000 Aquaculture, Globalisation, Deep
water fishing, Environmental NGOs
2000 + Global warming, Urban development,
Coastal squeeze
1850 - 1875 Land clearance, Industrial revolution,
sewerage
1875-1900. Steam trawlers, Rail transport,
Refrigeration
1900 - 1925 Oil shipments, Chemical industry,
1925 - 1950 Radio communications, War,
Munitions dumping
3. The Ecosystem Approach3. The Ecosystem Approach
A resource planning and management approach that recognizes the connections between land, air, water and all living things, including people, their activities and institutions.
Definition from the Ministry of Natural Resources, Canada
www.mnr.gov.on.ca/
Systems operate a varying scales and are often unpredictable
Policy RESPONSE
optionsEnviron-mental STATEchanges
Human WELFAREchange
Socio-economic DRIVERS
Environ-mental
PRESSURES
Social system
Ecological system
DPSWR (DPSIR revisited)
Policy RESPONSE
optionsEnviron-mental STATEchanges
Human WELFAREchange
Socio-economic DRIVERS
Environ-mental
PRESSURES
Social system
Ecological system
DPSWR - Where are the impacts?
IMPACTS
Policy RESPONSE
optionsEnviron-mental STATEchanges
Human WELFAREchange
Socio-economic DRIVERS
Environ-mental
PRESSURES
Human climate change
Natural system
variability
External factors
DPSWR - External factors
“Wicked” and “Tame” Problems
“Tame” problem can be solved by careful rules-based or consensus management
“Wicked” problem involves moral judgements and value-based decisions: governance.
Clear solutions
no clear solution; there will be winners and losers
First order “fixes”
Hard choices
Jentoft and Chuenpagdee (2009) Fisheries and coastal governance as a wicked problem
4. Adaptive management
Positive thinking for an uncertain future
Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments
Baseline studies
Methods
ASSESSMENT
Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments
A measureable aspirational goal for
the future
Baseline studies
Methods
Emerging Issues
SETTING THE VISION
Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments
EU Marine Strategy Directive
Good Environmental Status (2020)
Baseline studies
Methods
Emerging Issues
SETTING THE VISION
Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments
EU Marine Strategy Directive
Good Environmental Status (2020)
Baseline studies
Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets
Spatial planning
Methods
Emerging Issues
DEFINING THE FIRST STEP
Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments
EU Marine Strategy Directive
Good Environmental Status (2020)
Baseline studies
Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets
Spatial planning
Robust quantitative system state indicators
to measure impact
Operational indicators: process, pressures,
societal & governance
Methods
Emerging Issues
NECESSARY INDICATORS
Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments
EU Marine Strategy Directive
Good Environmental Status (2020)
Baseline studies
Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets
Spatial planning
Robust quantitative system state indicators
to measure impact
Operational indicators: process, pressures,
societal & governance
Methods
Emerging Issues
NECESSARY INDICATORS
MODELS to test
North Sea conceptual model
European Lifestyles and Marine Ecosystems
North Sea Winners and LosersEuropean Lifestyles and Marine Ecosystems
•Winners include phytoplankton and trophic dead-end species such as jellyfish
•Winners also include transitional waters (estuaries)
•Losers comprise seabirds that depend on sand eels and small pelagic fish.
•Bottom water (demersal) fish species such as plaice, cod and haddock are losers as are the other animals and plants that form sea-bed habitats
Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments
EU Marine Strategy Directive
Good Environmental Status (2020)
Regular monitoring (all indicators)
Baseline studies
Robust quantitative system state indicators
to measure impact
Operational indicators: process, pressures,
societal & governance
Methods
Emerging Issues
Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets
Spatial planning
MONITORING IS ESSENTIAL
Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments
EU Marine Strategy Directive
Good Environmental Status (2020)
Regular monitoring (all indicators)
Baseline studies
Regulations and compliance
Fast feedback loop
Robust quantitative system state indicators
to measure impact
Operational indicators: process, pressures,
societal & governance
Methods
Emerging Issues
Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets
Spatial planning
COMPLIANCE AND FEEDBACK
Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments
EU Marine Strategy Directive
Good Environmental Status (2020)
Regular monitoring (all indicators)
Baseline studies
Regulations and compliance
Slow feedback loop
Status and trends
Fast feedback loop
Robust quantitative system state indicators
to measure impact
Operational indicators: process, pressures,
societal & governance
Methods
Emerging Issues
Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets
Spatial planning
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE VISION
Three reasons why adaptive management can fail
• Lack of trust of stakeholders
• Poor monitoring and data transparency
• Slipping baselines
Designing, deploying and assessing artificial habitats – SAMS Artificial Reef
Rehabilitation Rehabilitation – creating a – creating a new future to new future to repair some of repair some of our mistakesour mistakes
5. Conclusions5. Conclusions
• No going back; we can only be stewards of the future• Our perceptions of the marine environment and values
are critically important for its management• Complexity is difficult to grasp, whether a scientist or a
decision maker• Let’s stop talking about the “low hanging fruits”, the easy
“win-win solutions” and focus on the wicked problems• Adaptive management is one towards an ecosystem
approach but there are pitfalls and risks.
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