Reducing urban vulnerability to g yextreme heat: an integrated

approachapproach

Mary Hayden, Ph.D.Mary Hayden, Ph.D.National Center for Atmospheric Research

Boulder, CO

21 F b 2014

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/projects/simmer/

21 February 2014San Antonio, TX

p p j

System for Integrated Modeling of Metropolitan Extreme Heat RiskMetropolitan Extreme Heat Risk (SIMMER)

RAL

CGDIMAGe

Goal: Advance methodology for assessing current and future urban vulnerability from heat wavesand future urban vulnerability from heat waves through integration of physical and social science models, research results, and remote sensing data

Project Team National Center for Atmospheric Research

O. Wilhelmi, A. Monaghan, M. Hayden, K. Oleson, S. Sain, J. Boehnert, K. Sampson, M. Barlage, C. Uejio (now at FSU), M. Heaton (now at BYU), T, p , g , j ( ), ( ), ,Greasby (now at Facebook), J. Pelzman (now at CU-Denver), U. Lauper (now at NY State Dept of Health), and R. Norton (also at CU-Denver)

University of Kansas J. Feddema, N. Brunsell, W. Liu, L. Hu and A. Zung

Houston Department of Health and Human Services D. Banerjee and V. Nepal

Canadian collaboratorsS. Gower, C. Mee, and M. Campbell (Toronto Public Health), C. Rinner and H. Heart (Ryerson University), A. Yagouti, K.-L. Clarke, C. Simpson, J. Paterson, U. Bi ki (H l h C d ) C D J (T E i Offi ) J Li (O iBickis (Health Canada), C. De Jong (Toronto Environment Office), J. Liu (Ontario Ministry of Environment)

External Advisory BoardM Sh h d (U i it f G i ) A d Sh bibi (CIESIN C l biM. Shepherd (University of Georgia), A. de Sherbibin (CIESIN, Columbia University), R. Harriss (HARC)

Population vulnerability to extreme heat

E t h t d li t hExtreme heat and climate change are serious public health concerns.

Focus on cities and urban heat island.

Health impacts are distributed unevenly – differentialunevenly differential vulnerability.

Relationship between human health and extreme heat is ahealth and extreme heat is a complex medical, social and environmental issue.

www.cdc.gov/ephtracking

Conceptual/analytical framework

Wilhelmi and Hayden (2010, ERL)

Data and scalesSensitivity

Climate Change

Exposure

Modeled and Observed

Observed (Census)Demographic and socio-

Census block

20002005

Adaptation and response

Modeled (CCSM)Temp.Humidity

1/8° 1990-2009

Modeled and Observed (HRLDAS, MODIS,NUDAPT, Parcels)

Temp.Humidity

1990-2009

economic group

Ad ti it

Modeled and Observed

Urban 2013-Wind RadiationHeat indices City-

scale

2046-2065

Daily

HumidityRadiationWindHeat indices

Surface

1 kmHalf-hour

Daily, 8 day composite

Adaptive capacity

Observed (Survey, Parcels)

Urban planning

Heat warning City

and

20132040

dailySurface Temp

p

Building properties

Parcels250 m

2010

)KAPHousehold ResourcesSocial capital Programs

Points

Parcels

2011

2010

Programs

Outreach

local seasonal

ong.

Programs Parcels 2010

Health outcomes

Observed (Health and Fire dept)Observed (Health and Fire dept)Mortality ICD-9; ICD-10)

Heat distress 911 calls

Points 1999-2006Daily2007-2010Time stamp

SIMMER Research Components

Characterizing and modeling present d f t t h t t tand future extreme heat events at

regional and local scales

Improving representation of urban land cover and its accompanying radiativeand thermal characteristics at local and regional scales

Characterizing societal vulnerability and the responses (i.e., mitigation and adaptation strategies)p g )

Determining the combined impact of extreme heat and the characteristics of urban environmental and social systemsurban environmental and social systems on human health

Uneven distribution in space and time

911 heat distress calls

Heat advisory and 911 heat stress calls

Current heat advisory threshold for Houston = NWS HI 108

Heaton et al. 2014 JASA, in review

Urban environment mattersUrban environment matters

Vegetation urban morphology impervious surfaces all playVegetation, urban morphology, impervious surfaces all play substantial roles in determining urban heat island characteristics.

Building materials (i.e., walls) also contribute to the intensity of the heat island, especially at night.

Targeting heat island mitigation strategies in areas with the highest urban density may have the biggest impact.

Monaghan et al. (submitted to JGR), Feddema et al. (in preparation)

Climate change may intensify heat t d istress and increase exposure

High heat stress days and nights occur more frequently in urban than rural areas

Houston exhibits noteworthy mid-century increases in high heat stress nights, with more than half of summer nights qualifying as high heat stress.

Increase in high heat stress nights g ghas been found in both urban and surrounding rural areas.

NWS index;Present day and

Mid-century (2046-2065)

Oleson et al. (Climatic Change)

(2046 2065)climate

simulations

Heat-health risk factors

Projected increase in heat stress i ht i f bli h lthnights is a concern for public health,

as daily minimum temperatures show significant associations with heat-related mortality.

Extreme heat disproportionately affects Houston residents with elderly, low income and socially isolated being the most affected. so ated be g t e ost a ected

Neighborhoods with high percentages of African American populations and neighborhoods

h l b f lwhere large numbers of people use public transportation also showed associations with heat-related mortality.

Heaton et al. (Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology)

Population’s adaptive capacity

901 households in Houston (2011)

In Houston, 98.1% of survey respondents had central or window air conditioninghad central or window air conditioning.

However, 37.1% of all respondents felt too hot inside their homes.

14% of respondents reported that the cost of electricity prevented them from using their air conditioners. 24.7% of respondents indicated having trouble paying their electric bill.

There is a need for increased awareness among vulnerable population about heat coping and health-risks mitigation programs.

14% of the survey population had no knowledge of symptoms of heat stress14% of the survey population had no knowledge of symptoms of heat stressMultiple demographic factors may interact to compound vulnerability, including lack of social capital. Those who reported heat related Illness:

• Non-homeowners• African Americans and Hispanic/Latinosp• Incomes less than $20,000 per year• Unemployed • Poor health Hayden et al. (in preparation)

Stakeholder workshopAugust 29th, 2013 Rice University, Houston, TX

40 attendees represented diverse organizations in public and i t t NGO d d iprivate sectors, NGOs, and academia

HDHHS, Harris county (Dept. Health, Emergency Management, Agency on Ageing), H-GAC, NWS, broadcast meteorologists, transportation, housing and energy managementg gy g

Workshop goalsPresent SIMMER results Identify next steps in reducing future impacts from extreme heaty p g pPromote coordination and collaborations

Specific gaps and activities

Cooling CentersAdvertise. Expand services. Provide transportation.

Heat Advisories, Products and ServicesThresholds. Sub-urban scale. Include public health messaging

Public Education / Effective Communication and Messagingg gEarly in the season. Multi-media. Heat awareness day. Incorporate heat into multi-hazard preparedness communication

ResearchResearchIntegration of SIMMER with forecasting. Air pollution & heat. Climate change scenarios. Acclimatization

P liPolicyWeatherization. Utility subsidies. Reduce UHI. Roofs. Community cohesion.

Collaboration and coordination of activities NWS and HDHHS, EMS, media, community service organizations. Heat champion is needed.

GIS as a tool for adaptation and response

Interactive web-based GIS toolRisk of heat-related mortality is linked with vulnerability indicators and response / adaptation options

Data exploration and visualization

Current and future heat risk

Interactive “slider” allows comparison between current and future heat risks

Current and future heat risk (2)Current and future heat risk (2)

Interactive “slider” allows comparison between current and future heat risks

Transferring SIMMER from Houston to TorontoHouston to Toronto

Toronto SIMMER Workshop “Linking Complex Science to Policy for Heat-Health Decision-Making” October 24-25, 2013

Overview by Canadian and U.S. research organizations and government agencies that conduct heat health work.User perspectives on decision-making to prevent heat-health impactsDiscussion of how the SIMMER model can be integrated into the existing Canadian research and be applied to cities such as Toronto.

Identified short-term and long-term goals Strategic communications and collaborations between agencies, governments and organizationsIdentifying comparable datasets and running SIMMER model with Toronto dataDevelopment of an operational tool with weather forecast and real-ti d ttime data

Workshop report will be available in early spring 2014

Thank you!y

P j i d b NASA TEProject is supported by NASA TE grant (09-IDS09-34)