Lessons Learnt from the Implementing of the Mekong flood forecast services

Prepared by RFMMC for the Expert Group Meeting on Strategies towards Building Resilience

to Disasters in Asia and the Pacific, 26 October 2015, Bangkok Thailand

MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION

Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre

(RFMMC)

The regional centre serves important role for data and information sharing, exchange capacity and collaboration across Members (MRC, 2004) the new structure of the MRCS (2016) the centre remains as a core function.

Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre, Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Year US$ million % total Fatalities % total

2000 517 13 710 26

2001 215 6 492 18

2011 493 13 416 15

2013 2,172 53 500 18

1966 (worst in over 100 years)

2000 (worst in over 40 years)

2011 (worst in over 30 years)

Table: flood damages

Floods and flooding in Mekong

Adaptation measures in the flood management context should involve a best mixture of structural and non-structural measures, with the aim of minimizing the losses of life from flooding and maximizing the net benefits derived from the floodplains (WMO,2004)

Our focus is non-structural measures by intervention flood forecasting andwarning systems

Flood warning services at the Centre

Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS)

Warning SystemFlash Flooding

Flood ForecastingRiver Flooding

Flood Forecasting System (FFS)

5-7 days lead time Short-term flood forecasting and river monitoring for 22 locations along the Mekong mainstream rom Chiang Sean, Thailand to ChauDoc/Tan Chau, Vietnam.

REGRESION MODEL•Type: Statistical model•Area: from Stung Treng to Chau Doc.

ISIS MODEL •Type: Hydrodynamic model•Area from Kratie to Chau Doc

URBS MODEL •Type: Hydrological model.•Area: LMB

• Daily Satellite Rainfall Estimates (SRE)

• Daily Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) hourly TRMM/Hydro-estimator

• 3 hourly Access G model rainfall

• Rainfall data from ECMWF

Observed

forecast

INPUTS

• Daily near real time rainfall and water level

• 15 min and 1 hourly real time telemetry data

• 3 hours GTS rainfall data

• Weather situation notices (2-6 times/weeks)

Data and information

Hydmet software stored observed data

• time records• import/export functions• reporting functions• etc

HYMET TOOL is a potential data sharing tool/mechanism (re: MRC regional technical gathering workshop, 2013&2014)

Master

Controller

Central

Database

Webserver

Forecasting

Shell Servers

Viewer

Operator

Client

Server Client

Viewerreports

data

forecasts

Telemetry

Local

Datastore

Met Office

DATA FLOW AT RFMMC

Observed data from MRC MCs (KH, LA, TH, VN)

http://ffw.mrcmekong.org

Data collection and transfer arrangement between MRC MCs and RFMMC

End 2015

Start 2016

MOU for KH, LA, VN- 3 years renewable basis and TOR for TH- yearly renewable

• Station network improvement

• training

• Communications

• O&M etc

• No staff cost

• Items are various from country to country

Decentralization of the activity

Annual regional technical gathering is a good flat form to share practical experiences and challenges among forecasters

Quality of data;

Quantity of data and

Collection/Transfer mechanism

Those are dominant factors for the timely and reliable information.

Challenges in data collection and transfer

Water Level of Mekong at Chiang Saen

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

01-

Nov

16-

Nov

01-

Dec

16-

Dec

31-

Dec

15-

Jan

30-

Jan

14-

Feb

01-

Mar

16-

Mar

31-

Mar

15-

Apr

30-

Apr

15-

May

30-

May

14-

Jun

Ga

ug

e h

eig

ht in

me

tre

s

M in WL Average1980-13 1992-93 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Maintenance and improving monitoring the existing network stations is continuous and always face with national resourcing, especially for increasing tributary coverage and fill the gaps of the existing stations networks.

it is favour a regional/central data portal that supports multiple data “routes” such as by SMS, email and as bulletins.

There are inevitable issues by start associated inconsistencies with data formatting across member countries.

Level of technical capacity and skills (hydro-meteorology)

Challenges in data collection and transfer

The accuracy of forecast from upstream to downstream are dramatically improved with regular system improvements exercises.

The timing and reliability of the forecasting information - illness and absence of data collector- failure in telecoms networks or isolated stations- sometimes issue with data sharing tool - miss of data recording due to weather conditions

Dissemination of flood warning at the RFMMC

Flood in formation can be accessed

from http://ffw.mrcmekong.org/

Face book

MRC webpage

E-mail to

groups of

recipients from

government

agencies to

IO’s& NGO’s

concerned

The“billboards” provided valuable community level training and awareness raising-- provides valuable insight into roles, responsibilities for the end users (thru groups of people represented and well respected by a majority of communities such as monks, village heads

Limitations of communication and messaging at the local and community levels.

Challenges in dissemination of flood warning

Lessons learnt since the events of 2000? There are 5 options – in effect:

Structural works….keeping the water away from the people• Land use controls / zoning …..keeping

people away from the water• Development and building controls…..

flood proofing• Regional flood emergency planning ….

assisting flood prone communities to live with floods

• Community flood emergency planning ….. communities are encouraged to accept responsibility for their own flood management and mitigation

And 4 supplementary measures

• Integrated land use planning …. land use controls for flood prone areas

• Flood simulation modeling ….. developing an understanding of flood generation processes

• Flood forecasting …… prediction and analysis for flood warning purposes

• Flood warning ….. the timely and effective provision of warnings to those at risk

Conclusion and ways forward

Floods become severe and frequent causing more damages and fatalities

Investment in data is critical and a basic step towards better management of flood risks

Two major measures should be taken by either one and/or few parties concerned

Further strengthen our work at, streamline

communication and messaging to community

Thank you very much for your attention!

Number of selected slides are obtained from MRC MCs as references (ref MRC MCs, Technical gathering workshop in 2015)

Stung Treng

Kratie

Kg.Cham

Neak Lung

Prek Kdam

Koh Khel

Chaktomuk

MOWRAM

DHRW

MRCS Related agencies

Phone

at

7am

E-mailBefore 8am

Phone

at

7am

Data flow at DHRW, Cambodia

Lum Phat, Veon Sai Siem

pang, Kg. Loung, Kg.

Kdey, Kg. Chen Kg.

Chhnang

Data collection at DWR, Thailand

DMH’s

Telecommunication

Center

GTS Network

R.A. II RTH

Bang Kok

Internet

WMO Centers’

Website

Flood

Forecasting

Unit

Provincial

Services of

Meteorology

and Hydrology

District

Meteorological

and Hydrological

Stations

64kbps FTP

TCP / IP

Dial-Up

Via Modem

Phone

Line

SSB

Radio

MTSAT-1R

Satellite

Doppler

Weather

RADAR

National Weather Forecast Center

C- bandIntensity mode 400 km Doppler mode 120 km

MTSAT-VIS

MTSAT-IR1

MTSAT-IR2

MTSAT-IR4

MTSAT-IR3

Renew every 30

minute

Dissemination of flood warning in DHRW of Cambodia

10 near real time

Hydrological

stations

MASS MEDIA (TVS,

RADIOS,

NEWSPAPERS, …)

Flood Bulletin,

and Flood

Warning

Concern line agencies

(Gov. Nat. Committees,

NGOs, UN agencies,

MRCS, …)

DHRW

MOWRAM

Fax, Email,

Website

Organization structure for disseminating of weather and flood forecast and warning in Lao P.D.R

Provincial Hydro-Meteo Stations

Dept. of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH)

Head Quarter office in Lao P.D.RMRCSLNMC

Prime Minister’s

Office

MAF Mass Media

TV,Radio, News

Provincial

Hydro-Meteo

Stations

Provincial

TV

MEM

Others

NDMO

Line Ministries

concerned

Provincial

Agriculture

and Forestry

services

Electricity

Hydro-Power

Remark:

LNMC: Lao national Mekong Committee

MRC: Mekong River Commission

MAF: Ministry of agriculture and forestry

NDMO: National Disaster Management office

MM : Ministry of Energy and Mining

MoNRE

Public participation

Training to village volunteers

Dissemination of flood warning in Thailand

Media

Local Authorities

Media

Media

Bulletins, warnings dissemination in Vietnam

NCHMF Telephone line,

Fax, internet,

LAN

Provincial

Hydromet. center

Regional

Centers

Fax, nternet,

LAN

Co

mm

un

ity

Special services

Central Gov. authorities

Centre committee Flood and

Storm control

Web: nchmf.gov.vn

Bulletins, Warnings

Co

mm

un

ity