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REINVENTING RETIREMENT Your Retirement Planning Newsletter September 2012 We hope this educational resource proves helpful. We believe an educated investor is a better investor. Please call us if you have questions. Larry W. Nordmann Fischer Wealth Management LPL Senior Financial Advisor 3312 E. SR 436, Suite 1000 Apopka, FL 32703 (407) 260-8386 Fax: (407) 637-2929 [email protected] www.fischerwealth.com In This Issue Retirement in Motion Perhaps the most critical expense to account for during a retirement that can last 20 years or more is healthcare. Harvesting Your Savings After a lifetime of hard work, youve grown your savings. But just as youve taken care to save and invest, its equally important to plan for income when it comes time to harvest those assets. You should have an income strategy that takes into account your expected expenses, savings and investment preferences. Its not a complicated process, but it helps to plan ahead of time Weekly Market Commentary | Week of September 3, 2012 While there are many election polls, what matters most to investors is what is priced in on Wall Street rather than what people are saying on Main Street. A stock market-based "election poll" is useful, in that it highlights what the market is pricing in about the outcome of the November elections. Independent Investor | September 2012 Dollar cost averaging is a technique in which investments of defined amounts are made on a regular basis. As a long-term strategy, DCA can help you take advantage of the benefits of compounding to potentially build a sizable sum over time. It can also help you use the markets inevitable ups and downs to your advantage. Weekly Economic Commentary | Week of September 3, 2012 The European Central Bank (ECB) holds its monthly policy meeting this Thursday, September 6, 2012, and is poised to support the European economy through the purchase of sovereign debt of Eurozone member nations.

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Page 1: REINVENTING RETIREMENTfc.standardandpoors.com/cms/newsletter_pdf/69/669/... · LPL Senior Financial Advisor 3312 E. SR 436, Suite 1000 Apopka, FL 32703 (407) 260-8386 ... the cost

REINVENTING RETIREMENTYour Retirement Planning Newsletter

September 2012

We hope this educationalresource proves helpful. Webelieve an educated investoris a better investor. Pleasecall us if you have questions.

Larry W. NordmannFischer Wealth ManagementLPL Senior Financial Advisor3312 E. SR 436, Suite 1000Apopka, FL 32703(407) 260-8386Fax: (407) [email protected]

In This Issue

Retirement in MotionPerhaps the most critical expense to account for during a retirement that can last 20 years ormore is healthcare.

Harvesting Your SavingsAfter a lifetime of hard work, youve grown your savings. But just as youve taken care to save andinvest, its equally important to plan for income when it comes time to harvest those assets. Youshould have an income strategy that takes into account your expected expenses, savings andinvestment preferences. Its not a complicated process, but it helps to plan ahead of time

Weekly Market Commentary | Week of September 3, 2012While there are many election polls, what matters most to investors is what is priced in on WallStreet rather than what people are saying on Main Street. A stock market-based "election poll" isuseful, in that it highlights what the market is pricing in about the outcome of the Novemberelections.

Independent Investor | September 2012Dollar cost averaging is a technique in which investments of defined amounts are made on aregular basis. As a long-term strategy, DCA can help you take advantage of the benefits ofcompounding to potentially build a sizable sum over time. It can also help you use the marketsinevitable ups and downs to your advantage.

Weekly Economic Commentary | Week of September 3, 2012The European Central Bank (ECB) holds its monthly policy meeting this Thursday, September 6,2012, and is poised to support the European economy through the purchase of sovereign debt ofEurozone member nations.

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 2   Your Retirement Planning Newsletter

Retirement in Motion

 Boomers on the Brink: Issues affecting participants as they approach retirement

 Planning for health care expensesPerhaps the most critical expense to account for during a retirement that can last 20 years or more ishealthcare. According to a recent study by Fidelity Investments, a couple aged 65 retiring in 2012 isexpected to need an average of $240,000 to pay for medical costs throughout retirement, excludingthe cost of over-the-counter medication, long-term care and most dental services.3 Q&A: Common questions plan participants ask

 How much home insurance coverage do I need?Roughly two-thirds of U.S. houses are undervalued for insurance purposes, according to a 2008survey from consultant Marshall & Swift/Boeckh. This means these homeowners wouldn't haveenough coverage to fully repair or rebuild their houses after a disaster. Basic policies cover thecosts of repairing the house, as well as medical expenses resulting from accidents on your property.But many standard policies exclude coverage for damage resulting from flooding, insect damage,windstorms or earthquakes. Most homeowners should choose a replacement-cost plan, that coversthe actual cost to repair or rebuild the home with similar materials, rather than one that pays marketvalue. Expanding liability coverage, especially if you have a home-based business, anddocumenting your personal belongings and valuables, is worth considering as well. Visitwww.insureuonline.org for more tips and resources. Quarterly Reminder:

 Many CDs mature in OctoberBe on the lookout for notices from your bank about certificates of deposit (CDs) that may bematuring in October. Generally, you will have to provide instructions to the bank if you want to doanything but roll the money over into a new certificate at prevailing interest rates. This could limityour ability to use the money for other purposes, since most CDs carry a hefty charge for earlywithdrawals. Tools & Techniques: Resources to help guide your retirement plan Social Security payments via debit cardIn 2009, the U.S. Social Security Administration (SSA) introduced a debit card that you can use toaccess your Social Security benefits. With the Direct Express® card program, the SSA deposits federal benefit payments directly into your card account. You can use the card to make purchases,pay bills or get cash at thousands of locations. The Direct Express card is available to anyonereceiving Social Security or Supplemental Security Income payments, and you don't need to have abank account to qualify. Learn more at www.ssa.gov. Corner on the Market: Basic financial terms to know Early withdrawal penaltyIf you withdraw amounts from your IRA or other qualified retirement plan before reaching age 59,the amount will be subject to ordinary income tax as well as a 10% early withdrawal tax (alsocalled a "premature" distribution), unless one of a number of exceptions applies. The 10% tax isreported on the appropriate line of IRS Form 1040. 3 Assumptions: The couple signs up for Medicare at age 65 and has no employer-provided retiree health insurance. Men are assumed to live for 17 years until age 82, while women are expected to spend 20 years inretirement until age 85. The calculation takes into account Medicare's cost-sharing provisions includingdeductibles, coinsurance, and other likely out-of-pocket costs for Medicare Parts A, B, and D. Source:Fidelity Investments, May 2012.

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Harvesting Your Savings

 

Here's how your savings can replace your income. After a lifetime of hard work, you've grown your savings. But just as you've taken care to save andinvest, it's equally important to plan for income when it comes time to harvest those assets. Youshould have an income strategy that takes into account your expected expenses, savings andinvestment preferences. It's not a complicated process, but it helps to plan ahead of time. Here are afew pointers: Plan for many more harvest moonsFirst, you need to figure out how many years of retirement you'll have to plan for. A man currently65 years old can expect to live to 82 and the average 65-year-old woman will live until 85,according to Social Security Administration (SSA) data. These numbers, of course, are averages,that don't take into account your current health, lifestyle or family history, all of which can increaseor decrease your life expectancy. To estimate your life expectancy, visit the SSA's website atwww.ssa.gov and fill in your gender and birthday. Or you can take a 10-minute questionnaire atwww.livingto100.com for a more precise calculation that factors in your family health history andlifestyle. Budget for "must haves" and "nice to haves"Next, you need to prepare a household budget by identifying the expenses you expect to have inretirement. The rule of thumb is that most retirees need roughly 85-90% of their pre-retirementhousehold income to maintain their current lifestyle in retirement. The following table can help youidentify which expenses are essential and which you have more control over. Types of expenses in retirement  

ESSENTIAL SPENDING Current Cost(Annual)

DISCRETIONARY SPENDING Current Cost(Annual)

Mortgage or rent $________ Dining out $________Taxes (income andproperty)

$________ Entertainment (movies,theatre, sports events)

$________

Car payments,taxes, insurance,gas andmaintenance

$________ Travel $________

Health insurance $________ Hobbies $________Dental, vision,Medicarepremiums,prescriptions

$________ Long-term care (LTC),disability insurance, lifeinsurance

$________

Groceries $________ Gifts (including charitabledonations)

$________

Utilities $________ Shopping $________Total Essential $________ Total Discretionary $________

 

Getting the most from your cropsFinally, you can use the accompanying graphic to build a retirement income strategy. Once you'veestablished your budget (retirement need), match sources of income to support it. Typically thisincludes pensions, Social Security and personal savings in the form of 401(k) plans, IRAs,investment accounts and bank accounts (retirement savings). The ability of your savings to earn areasonable rate of return and protect your purchasing power will depend on how you divide your

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 assets among stocks, bonds and cash (asset allocation) to generate a blended rate of return fromyour target income mix. Your target income mix is ultimately what allows you to withdraw yourestimated monthly income. Retirement is an exciting time of life, with virtually endless opportunities to pursue newexperiences. Taking a little time today to build a retirement income strategy will make it that mucheasier when it's time to harvest your savings-and chase your dreams. 

© 2012 Kmotion, Inc. This newsletter is a publication of Kmotion, Inc., whose role is solely that of publisher.The articles and opinions in this publication are for generalinformation only and are not intended to provide tax or legal advice or recommendationsfor any particular situation or type of retirement plan. Nothing in this publication should be construed as legal ortax guidance, nor as the sole authority on any regulation, law, or ruling as it applies to a specific plan orsituation. Plan sponsors should consult the plan’s legal counsel or tax advisor for advice regarding plan-specificissues.

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Weekly Market Commentary | Week of September 3, 2012

 

Highlights

A stock market-based "election poll" is useful, in that it highlights what the market is pricing in aboutthe outcome of the November elections.Our " suggests Republicans have yet to erode the gains in the odds thatWall Street" Election PollDemocrats retain their control in Washington.Investors may have become too complacent that the Senate Democrats will retain their seats andquickly find a grand compromise with House Republicans to avoid going over the so-called fiscal cliffinto a recession in 2013.

What Wall Street Is Saying About the Election May Surprise You

While there are many election polls, what matters most to investors is what is on Wall Street ratherpriced inthan what people are on Main Street. A stock market-based "election poll" is useful, in that it highlightssayingwhat the market is pricing in about the outcome of the November elections.

Based upon the most legislation-sensitive industries, earlier this year we created two indexes to help us trackthe market's implied forecast of the election outcome reflected in the performance of these industries. Eachindex is composed of an equal weighting among eight industries that when combined total well over 100 stocksin the S&P 500 index. To track what the market has priced in for the Democrats' odds of retaining the WhiteHouse and Senate, we took our Democrats index and divided it by our Republicans index. This is what we trackas the "Wall Street" Election Poll, published by LPL Financial Research on Thursdays. An upward sloping linesuggests the market may be pricing in a rising likelihood of the Democrats retaining the White House and theirmajority in the Senate, while a downward sloping line suggests improving prospects for the Republicans.

What Wall Street is saying about the election may surprise you. Our "Wall Street" Election Poll suggestsRepublicans have yet to erode the gains in the odds that Democrats retain their control. These odds improvedearly this summer as the Supreme Court upheld the Affordable Care Act, more commonly known asObamacare. Our poll reflects the path taken by other market-based assessments of the election such theIntrade.com futures contracts on President Obama's re-election and on the party control of the Senate, whichhave moved from about a 75% chance the Republicans prevail in the Senate to a toss-up now.

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With the S&P 500 having risen back to around four-year highs, investors may have become too complacentthat the Senate Democrats will retain their seats and quickly find a grand compromise with House Republicanson extending the Bush tax cuts and other actions to avoid going over the so-called fiscal cliff into a recession in2013. The Congressional Budget Office recently confirmed our long-held view that a recession is a given in2013, if no action is taken to moderate the combination of tax hikes and spending cuts totaling over $500billion already written into current law. We think a compromise may be harder to reach than the market seemsto think if the Democrats prevail in the Senate and the House remains, as is likely, in the hands of theRepublicans. Recall that the status quo in Washington was no help to markets last year, as the unwillingness tocompromise on both sides of the aisle led to the debt ceiling debacle last August sending the S&P 500 downover 10% in three trading days.

Governor Romney's Vice President pick of Congressman Ryan may raise the stakes further for investors in2013.If President Obama wins by focusing his re-election campaign on attacking the controversial andpotentially unpopular elements of the Ryan plan (which is supported by the House Republicans and, notably,Ryan is chairman of the House Budget committee), it may make a grand compromise even more difficultbetween the White House and Congress in 2013 to avoid going over the fiscal cliff into a recession and bearmarket.

It is possible that stocks may be overstating Democrats' momentum ahead of what are likely to be closeelections. If so, look for a potential surge in the Republican-favored industries. If not, stocks may begin tostumble until a clear path to a compromise on the fiscal cliff can be reached.

It is not just this year that markets may begin to fear a divided Congress. Since 1901, the Dow Jones IndustrialAverage has fallen an annualized -3% during the 12% of the time that featured a split-party Congress,according to Ned Davis Research. Returns were much better when the control of Congress was in the hands ofone party or the other. Gridlock is unlikely to be good for investors in 2013.

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We will continue to publish the LPL Financial "Wall Street" Election Poll each Thursday as part of our investorelection analysis as politics become a bigger driver of the market in the coming weeks.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be noguarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measureperformance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocksrepresenting all major industries.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is comprised of U.S.-listedstocks of companies that produce other (non-transportation and non-utility) goods and services. The DowJones Industrial Averages are maintained by editors of The Wall Street Journal. While the stock selectionprocess is somewhat subjective, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation,demonstrates sustained growth, is of interest to a large number of investors and accurately represents themarket sectors covered by the average. The Dow Jones averages are unique in that they are price weighted;therefore their component weightings are affected only by changes in the stocks' prices.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investmentadvisor, please note that LPL Financial is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect tosuch entity.

LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC

Tracking # 1-097136| Exp. 9/13

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Independent Investor | September 2012

 

Pay Yourself First-and Regularly-With Dollar Cost Averaging

 

To remain financially responsible, everyone must pay bills on a regular basis. These bills include mortgages,utilities, car loans and credit cards. Unfortunately, many people do not also heed the oft-quoted advice to paythemselves first.

 

The reality is that a steady saving and investing plan is sometimes necessary to help pursue such financialgoals as paying for a wedding or new car, buying a house and funding retirement. One strategy that can helpyou develop a systematic investing plan, while potentially saving you money and easing your mind along theway, is dollar cost averaging (DCA).

DCA Defined

Dollar cost averaging is a technique in which investments of defined amounts are made on a regular basis. As1

a long-term, disciplined strategy, DCA can help you take advantage of the benefits of compounding topotentially build a sizable sum. Aside from offering a disciplined, trouble-free way to save and invest, anotherpotential benefit of using DCA is that it ensures that your money purchases more shares when prices are lowand fewer when prices are high. Over time, the result could be that the average cost to you may be less than theaverage share price. For example, consider the accompanying chart, which shows the result of investing $50 instocks every month for 12 consecutive months.2

As you can see, every month the share price fluctuates a bit, and by the end of the 12-month period, your $600would have bought you 42.7 shares. The average price per share, as calculated by adding up the monthly priceand dividing by 12, would have been $14.25. However, the average cost that you would have actually paid, ascalculated by dividing the total amount invested by the number of shares, would have been $14.05 per share.Over the years, this method could potentially save you a lot of money.

 

The Benefits of DCA

Month Share Price Shares Bought

Jan. $15 3.3

Feb. $13 3.8

Mar. $12 4.2

Apr. $14 3.6

May $13 3.8

June $12 4.2

July $13 3.8

Aug. $14 3.6

Sept. $16 3.3

Oct. $16 3.1

Nov. $17 2.9

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 Dec. $16 3.1

Total Shares 42.7

Average Price Per Share $14.25

Average Cost Per Share using DCA $14.05

 

Dollar cost averaging also can offer the psychological comfort of easing into the market gradually instead ofplunging in all at once. Although DCA does not assure a profit or protect against a loss in declining markets, itssystematic investing "habit" helps encourage a long-term perspective, which can be soothing for people whomight otherwise avoid the short-term volatility of riskier, but potentially more profitable, investments, such asequities.

And last, DCA may help you make savvy investment decisions if you stick with it. For example, if yourinvestment rises by 10%, you will likely post big gains because of the shares you have accrued over time. And ifit declines by the same amount, take comfort in knowing that your next investment will purchase more sharesat a less expensive price-shares that may regain their value and even exceed the higher price in the future.3

Regular Investing Makes Sense

As a long-term strategy, you may find DCA can help to potentially lower your average cost per share, whileallowing you to feel more comfortable during uncertain markets. Keep in mind, however, that you shouldconsider your ability to purchase over long periods of time and your willingness to purchase through periods oflow price levels.

1Periodic investment plans do not assure a profit and do not protect against loss in declining markets. Dollarcost averaging is a strategy that involves continuous investment in securities regardless of fluctuating pricelevels of such securities, and the investor should consider their financial ability to continue purchasing throughperiods of low price levels.Source: Standard & Poor's. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 index.2

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.3

This article was prepared by S&P Capital IQ Financial Communications and is not intended to providespecific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. Consult your financial advisor, or me, if

.you have any questions

Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by S&P Capital IQ Financial Communications or itssources, neither S&P Capital IQ Financial Communications nor its sources guarantees the accuracy, adequacy,completeness, or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for theresults obtained from the use of such information. In no event shall S&P Capital IQ Financial Communicationsbe liable for any indirect, special, or consequential damages in connection with subscribers' or others' use ofthe content.

Tracking # 1-095838

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Weekly Economic Commentary | Week of September 3, 2012

 

Highlights

Dysfunction in the European financial markets may lead the European Central Bank (ECB) to purchasesovereign debt in the open market.The ECB may look to lower rates for consumers and businesses through another round of debtpurchases.Unlike the U.S., Europe has been greatly impacted by a lack of business spending.

For the Weekly Economic Calendar, please click here

Dysfunction Drives the ECB

The European Central Bank (ECB) holds its monthly policy meeting this Thursday, September 6, 2012, and ispoised to support the European economy through the purchase of sovereign debt of Eurozone membernations. The ECB has used this approach before (in early 2010 and mid-2011), but markets viewed those foraysby the ECB into quantitative easing (QE) as scattershot (at best). In recent weeks, ECB President Mario Draghihas been floating the idea of more ECB purchases, oftentimes battling the German Bundesbank (the Germancentral bank and main predecessor of the ECB in Europe) over the ability to do so. But Draghi has been carefulto say that any purchases would only come after countries have demonstrated a commitment to push aheadwith budget cuts and structural reform, couched in the phrase "conditionality." We will leave this quitepertinent debate over the ability of the ECB to purchase bonds and under what conditions they would do so foranother commentary. This week, we will explore what the ECB might be trying to achieve by purchasingsovereign debt in the open market.

To QE or Not to QE in Europe

Today, despite the two earlier rounds of QE (purchasing sovereign debt in the open market) and severalrounds of measures aimed at promoting liquidity in the European banking and financial systems, consumersand businesses still face very high borrowing rates and even difficulty obtaining financing. As a result, loans bythe financial sector to households and consumers in Europe have been shrinking for more than three years. Inshort, the ECB (and many financial market participants) remain concerned that the dysfunction in theEuropean financial system, a symptom of the high levels of sovereign debt clogging up European banks'balance sheets, may not get better anytime soon without more help from policymakers. That help may comethis week in the form of another round of QE in Europe.

ECB vs. Fed: Different Approaches to QE

It is interesting to note however, that what the ECB is trying to accomplish with another round of QE is slightlydifferent from what the Federal Reserve (Fed) is looking to achieve as it prepares to do a third round ofquantitative easing as soon as next week. The Fed is contemplating purchases of-and therefore reducing thesupply of-nearly riskless assets (U.S. Treasuries and high-quality mortgage backed securities) in an effort topush large pools of private investors (pension funds, hedge funds, etc.) into somewhat more risky assets likemunicipal bonds, corporate bonds, and high-yield bonds. If the ECB wanted to achieve this goal, they mightsimply purchase German bunds on the open market. Instead, the ECB is targeting the "severe malfunctioningin the price formation process in the bond markets of euro area countries," as stated by the ECB after its lastpolicy meeting in early August 2012. By purchasing bonds of peripheral European nations (Portugal, Ireland,Spain etc.)-where bond markets are currently pricing in a relatively high probably that these countries willeventually leave the Eurozone-the ECB hopes to help reset prices in a dysfunctional market, reassure marketparticipants of the "irreversibility of the euro," and in the process,  lower  the cost of borrowing for businessesand consumers in those countries.

European Consumers Are Not Seeing Lower Rates

The nearby charts help to illustrate the problem. The first chart is Italian mortgage rates versus mortgage ratesin the United States. While not strictly an apples-to-apples comparison (mortgage loans in Europe tend to beset from five- and seven-year government debt rates, while fixed rate loans in the United States are tied to 10-and 30-year Treasury rates), it is clear that the low official rates in Europe (the ECB's overnight lending rate is0.75%), and plenty of liquidity in the banking system, are not translating into lower rates for consumers. Whilemortgage rates in the United States have moved sharply lower in the past five years, from well over 7.0% towell under 3.0%, mortgage rates in Italy have moved substantially higher. Interest rates on other types ofconsumer loans in Europe are rising as well, dampening businesses' ability to expand, and consumers' abilityto make purchases. Thus, a key goal of another round of debt purchases by the ECB would be to lowerborrowing rates for consumers and businesses.

European Business Unable to Invest or Hire

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 Another Eurozone woe that may be ameliorated by a sustained round of sovereign debt purchases by the ECBwould be the availability of credit. The nearby chart compares the year-over-year percentage change incommercial and industrial (C&I) loans by U.S. banks to the business sector in the United States to the similarmetric in the Eurozone. The level of C&I loans outstanding, which is a component of the LPL FinancialResearch Current Conditions Index (CCI), is nearly 15% higher than a year ago. In the Eurozone, it is acompletely different story. Loans by monetary financial institutions (MFIs) in Europe-mainly banks-toEuropean businesses have contracted over the past year, after rebounding modestly in the first year of therecovery (2009-2010) from the Great Recession. Without capital from banks and other financial institutions,European businesses cannot invest in or expand existing operations, or hire new workers. The persistent lackof business investment in Europe has led to persistently high unemployment, and most likelyunderemployment as well, slower economic growth, and, ultimately, higher budget deficits, which are at theroot of the overall dysfunction in the European financial system. In addition, the absence of business spendingin Europe has had a major impact on imports of capital goods into Europe, which, in turn, has dampenedexport growth in China, Japan, and the United States.

European Banks Overly Cautious With Lending

Higher rates and reduced availability of credit for European businesses and consumers are only part of thestory. Saddled with billions of dollars of heretofore "safe" sovereign European debt on their balance sheets,European banks remain overly cautious about who they lend to. Tighter lending standards-on top of higherrates and reduced availability-exacerbate the economic and financial situation in Europe. By purchasing thedebt of certain countries in the open market, the ECB hopes to break this logjam and make credit more readilyavailable to the private sector. The nearby chart compares the lending standards for business loans made byU.S. banks and banks in the Eurozone. Over the past three years, as the Fed embarked on several rounds ofquantitative easing and U.S. banks shed bad assets built up during the housing bubble, bank lending standardsfor business loans eased dramatically. In Europe, however, after becoming less restrictive in the immediateaftermath of the Great Recession, banks' lending standards for businesses remain relatively tight and haveactually tightened significantly over the past year or so, as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe has intensified.

In recent weeks and months, the ECB has sounded especially strident about the need to address the "severemalfunctioning in the price formation process in the bond markets of euro area countries" as well as the"financial fragmentation" that hinders the functioning of monetary policy in Europe. By taking steps towardmore aggressive and systematic bond buying, the ECB hopes to begin to address the dysfunction, and help toget badly needed credit flowing again to struggling European businesses and consumers.

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within acountry's borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includesall of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occurwithin a defined territory.

Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions actively trade balances held at theFederal Reserve, called federal funds, with each other, usually overnight, on an uncollateralized basis.

Private Sector - the total nonfarm payroll accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce theentire gross domestic product of the United States. The nonfarm payroll statistic is reported monthly, on the

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 first Friday of the month, and is used to assist government policy makers and economists determine thecurrent state of the economy and predict future levels of economic activity. It doesn't include:

- general government employees

- private household employees

- employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals

- farm employees

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be noguarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

International investing involves special risks, such as currency fluctuation and political instability, and maynot be suitable for all investors.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is a survey done by the United States Bureau of LaborStatistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturersand different offices each month. Respondents to the survey answer quantitative and qualitative questionsabout their businesses' employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations. The JOLTS data ispublished monthly and by region and industry.

China CPI: In total there are about 600 "national items" used for calculating the all-China CPI. The list ofitems is revised annually for representativeness based on purchases reported in the household surveys. Thenumber of items can change from year to year, but rarely by more than 10 in any given year.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturingfirms by the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment,production inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries. A composite diffusion index is created thatmonitors conditions in national manufacturing based on the data from these surveys.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas is the oldest executive outplacement firm in the United States. The firmconducts regular surveys and issues reports on the state of the economy, employment, job-seeking, layoffs,and executive compensation.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investmentadvisor, please note that LPL Financial is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect tosuch entity.

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The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specificadvice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate foryou, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is noguarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

 

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