relative performance of public and private telecom)
TRANSCRIPT
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Telecommunication
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Thought Process2
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Identifying key growthdrivers
Subscriber Base, Rural India, VAS Services
Differential analysisparameters
Impact on ARPU, Private and
Public Firms
Final Conclusion
Summary of our findings
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Contents
SWOT analysis of the sector
Market analysis
Growth and market share of public and private
players
Profit margins of public and private players
Analysis of investments
Future growth prospects of the sector
Future scope of the project
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SWOT Analysis of Telecom sector5
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STRENGTHS
• Increase in mobile subscriber base• Healthy competition and attractive business
environment
•
Decreased restrictions for foreign participation• Increase in foreign investments-
Singtel(Singapore), Telekom Malaysia, NTT(
Japan), Sistema ( Russia)
• Demand for mobile value added services
• 76.5% increase in broadband subscribers in 2008
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WEAKNESSES
Maximum number are prepaid users with low activity
level
Average Revenue Per User(ARPU) is declining due to
rise in prepaid users Delay in implementing 3G
Limited infrastructure in rural areas
Shrinking market of fixed line telephoning Dominance of fixed line telephoning by BSNL and
MTNL (rural- 99%)
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OPPORTUNITIES
Recommendation to allow foreign participation for the
auction of 3G
Deployment of Next Generation Network(NGN)
infrastructure Launch of new multimedia mobile handsets- positive
impact on data service usage
Issue of international and national long distance
licenses- opportunity for companies to develop market
presence
Opportunity to develop WiMax and fibre for
broadband services
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THREATHS
Mobile network portability(MNP)- increases pressure in
on operators to retain customers
Uncertainty of sufficiency in spectrum allocation for 3G
Network capacity struggling to keep up with demand
Fixed line sector may decline at a higher rate
Current slowdown in domestic consumption may
negatively impact IP services Development of IPTV services may be adversely
effected by high costs, slow speed and low usage
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MARKET ANALYSIS10
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Telecom sector is 2nd largest with 430mn connections (Mar,2009)
Growth rate of 45-50% in recent years
Indian mobile market growth11
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Teledensity growth in India
•GOI has set a target of 45% teledensity which will need $73bn of investments
•Major chunk is expected from FDI
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Private sector accounted for more than 75% of subscriberadditions ( early 2004)
Yearly net additions of mobile subscribers13
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Prepaid-postpaid subscriber base
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Postpaid million 3.6 6.5 10.8 13.1 15.8 17.3
Prepaid million 9.1 19.6 30.2 56.0 105.6 175.4
Total GSMsubscriber basemillion 12.7 26.2 41.0 69.2 121.4 192.7
Proportion of prepaidand postpaid
-Postpaid per cent 28 25 26 19 13 9
-Prepaid per cent 72 75 74 81 87 91
Source: CRISIL Research, TRAI and COAI
•Rapid increase in the prepaid subscribers probably due to availability of
cheaper handsets and low tariffs
•Most of the subscribers are inactive leading to decrease in ARPU
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Percentage growth of prepaid subscribers has been steadily increasing as
compared to postpaid subscribers
Breakup of prepaid and postpaid subscriber base
0
10
20
30
40
5060
70
80
90
100
Postpaid
Prepaid
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Rural markets are yet to be captured and provides a immense
growth prospects for the for the existing players
However, immense investments in infrastructure is required
Growth of rural wireless subscriber base16
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Growth of public call office17
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Broadband Subscribers18
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Major players in telecom sector
Major players (in the decreasing
order of market share)
1 Bharti Airtel
2 Reliance
3 Vodafone Essar
4 BSNL
5 IDEA Cellular
6 Tata Teleservices
7 Aircel
8 MTNL
9 Spice Communications
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FDI Inflow in the industry
•FDI of upto 74% allowed for ISP’s and radio paging services
•FDI of upto 100% permitted for electronic mail and voice mail
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GROWTH AND MARKET SHARE OFPUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR
21
SpiceOthers 0 78
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BhartiAirtel, 24.69
Reliance, 17.68
VodafoneEssar, 17.57
BSNL, 13.33
IDEACellular, 9.86
TataTeleservices, 9.
16
Aircel, 4.63 MTNL, 1.21Spice
Communications, 1.10
Others, 0.78
MARKET SHARE OF MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE SECTOR22
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Demand
Telecom subscriber base rose by 11.45 million to
464.8 million
wireless subscriber base grew to 427.3 million
The mobile segment added 12.0 million subscribersin June 2009 as compared to 11.6 million
subscribers in May 2009.
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Public sectorA Brief analysis
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam (MTNL) Government (56.25%)
Fixed-line and mobile telephony
Delhi, Mumbai
Services: Data, internet Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL) Government (100%)
Fixed-line and mobile telephony
GSM – outside Delhi and Mumbai 23 circles
Services: Data, internet
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The market share of BSNL has seen a sharp decline since 2006
BSNL wireless market share (2005-08)
2005 2006 2007 2008
BSNL market Share 23.2846 23.4838 20.5911 17.3982
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
BSNL market Share
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Market Share (Wireless subscribers) of
major operators
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
S e p - 0 7
O c t - 0 7
N o v - 0 7
D e c - 0 7
J a n - 0 8
F e b - 0 8
M a r - 0 8
A p r - 0 8
M a y - 0 8
J u n - 0 8
J u l - 0 8
A u g - 0 8
S e p - 0 8
O c t - 0 8
N o v - 0 8
D e c - 0 8
J a n - 0 9
F e b - 0 9
M a r - 0 9
Airtel
BSNL
Vodafone Essar
Reliance
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Private network growth27
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Comparison of PBITDA for public and
private sector firms
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Comparison of Total PBITDA
Public Private
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Wireline market comparison29
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Market Share – Fixed Wireline
BSNL, 76.70%
MTNL, 9.46%
BhartiAirtel, 7.53%
HFCLInfotel, 0.44%
Reliance CommunicationsLtd, 3.01% Shyam
Telelink, 0.30%
Tata TeleservicesLtd1, 2.57%
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Internet Subscriber Base Comparison31
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ISP Market Share of various operators32
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Analysis of ISP subscriber base data33
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Telecom infrastructure34
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Public-Pvt sector in infrastructure35
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Summary36
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Demand Forecast: Increase in subscriber base
Factors affecting future of Indian Telecom
Industry• 3G spectrum
• New entrants
• Implementation of 4G
Future growth prospects38
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3G spectrum
The much awaited 3G spectrum policy was unveiledby the DoT in August 2008
The reserve price for a pan-India 3G licence is
fixed at Rs 22 billion To each successful bidder
the government plans to allot 5 MHz of spectrum in the2.1 GHz frequency band.
Auction of 1.25 MHz of spectrum in the 800 MHz bandtowards 3G services is expected to be held at a laterstage.
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Global 3G subscriber base (as of December 2007)3G subscribers 3G penetration
(million nos) (per cent)
UK 11.8 16.0
France 11.5 22.4
Germany 8.7 9.0
Italy 20.4 22.7
Indonesia 0.6 0.7
Malaysia 1.4 6.1
Japan 72.7 69.1
Phillipines 0.3 0.6
South Korea 19.9 45.8
Australia 6.7 31.3
US 6.3 2.5
World 286 8.6
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K k f I di f l b l
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Key takeaways for India from global
case studies
We have studied the implementation of 3G services
in Japan and some European countries to
understand the scale of deployment over a period
of time, the nature of problems faced at inceptionand the recent growth phase. The key factors that
determine adoption of 3G services in any market
are:
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Demand forecast 2009-13(3G)42
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The game changer in Telecom industry
Mobile number Portability43
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Impact
Competitive landscape slated to change
Both Public and private operators will have to
change strategies
For Customers
More value for money
Bright prospects for new entrants
Market Share troubles for existing operators (Publicand private)
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Analysis of public and private sector45
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Public Sector (BSNL & MTNL)
Wireless subscriber base share decreasing for BSNL
Cause of concern
Market share for Reliance increasing in GSM
BSNL & MTNL have a healthy market share Fixed Wireline market share is strong
Internet market share is healthy
BSNL needs to improve as compared to marketleader
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Future scope of the project
Study on the number of employees
Impact on profitability of speed in decision making
Study of the cash flows
Effect of employee salary on profitability
Study of talent pool
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References49
Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (http://www.trai.gov.in/)
Department Of Telecommunications
(http://www.trai.gov.in/) Indian Brand Equity Foundation
(http://www.ibef.org/)
Prowess database
Crisil Research
(https://www.crisilresearch.com)